Craziest thing happened tonight.
On After Hours with Option Addict, I poll on average 2-3 times per week to measure sentiment. I do this over at Trading Addicts as well. Been doing that since 2007, just to try to find extreme points in sentiment throughout the week.
We’ve had many actionable signals over the years. Any vote that is over 80% bullish has been an immediately actionable short, while anything more than 65% bearish vote has been not as immediately accurate, but usually signals we are within close proximity to a short term low.
Tonight we got an 81% bearish vote. Big fucking deal, right? But I’ve never seen one of those before, even in the midst of some nasty bear markets.
Is it predictive? How in the fuck should I know? Ask me tomorrow at 4 pm Eastern.
I do know that all you could take away from today’s failed rally was fear or discouragement…unless you are happily short down here….in which you are confident, eager, and maybe a little anxious. Given that this is at the low end of a 4 day 11% wipeout, I would say you are in an interesting position.
I don’t for one minute doubt that any of this is over, or that we don’t take out a low at some point, but over the next two months, your ultimate trading signal for market gyrations will be to figure out what the pain trades will be. We did this in 2011 for two months. It was a lot easier to predict than you might think.
I am trying to get in the NQ here tonight…riding a GC short…and have on some NKD.
Anyone up trading?
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As lame as it sounds, I’m paper trading futures through this mess. I can’t pretend that I have the experience required to make money in this kind of enviroment. I want to keepy trading skills honed while I hide mostly in cash and pick off a quick swing here or there. Know thy limits.
Dude, not lame at all. These are great times to hone volatility trading skills. The ranges are unreal.
Me too, I’m not able to trade during the day and usually overnight moves are extremely boring. So boring in fact that once I had logged off and still had a position on, I logged in months later and was down like 300,000 fake dollars, what’s even better is that during that time frame I was up like 400k in fake money at one time. Kidding aside it helps with figuring out your own risk tolerance, behavior and control of emotions. And learn market psychology and sentiment, you can basically go through a years worth of trading moves and price levels in a week “crash course” style.
I believe the chance of crashing from here is high. I am talking 20-25%. I am also prepared to get the f out of dodge. However either way the near term low is not in yet.
How on earth do you call this, nail it…then not get out here on a fucking megaphone and talk shit?
Where’s the next blog? You probably have thousands of hits a day, just to refresh to see if the motherfucking oracle has spoken.
Chillin on a cellphone with no wireless.
Please update your avatar to this:
https://cdn.recombu.com/media/mobile/news/legacy/M13438/1298410750_w670.jpg
I booked lots of put profits and rolled down. So I have locked in some. Dude. I will write tonight.
Jeff do you get a sense this could be 2008 all over again?
No this has no 08 elements to it. Either Bluestar is correct off a 29, 37, 87 analogue or this is a 98, 10, 11 style move. I am still convinced of the latter at this point.
August of 1998, Dow dropped 11.5% in 3 days. August of 2015, Dow dropped 11.4% in 3 days.
Obama will not allow this to continue. Pumping will resume.
Up watching and wishing I had the futures acct active again. When I did, I went too bipolar with my real job so I stick to options / stocks now. I am still bullish into the fall. Cant explain why but I am.
i don’t roll outside RTH but this volatility keeps making me nauseous. I went vegan this afternoon, you guys will never hear the end of it. If I’m not consuming the fear food, in theory I should have a stronger stomach for algo warfare.
Dude, I am all sorts of fucked up on the diet/health front right now.
Trade’em well OA, you da man. I base all my market profile charts on the 24 hour markets and very often they nail inflection points overnight that I wish I did trade. Perhaps one day I will venture back into globex.
Globex is a shit show man. 2 point ticks is the new normal on /ES. I saw /NQ tick 4 points on 1 sale. I was one and done trying to trade that shit.
2011: The last, best entry into this bull market. Could it happen this year?
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/30/for-the-sp-500-2011-bascially-never-happened/
Great points on the index levels and chart signals OA. Maybe we sit here for a bit? My gut feels like Bluestar is right here.
I’m 100% cash, bought oil into the bell yesterday, nice 3.5% pop today.
What would you consider “right?”
20-25% downside
The cyber space looks fucking glorious
Really? Top name?
Cyber space top pick = GIMO
I want to buy $ZIXI soon
🙂
We are going to see compression of prices. I expect us to fade just below 1935 and the dip gets bought about 1880-1890.
Feels like the move now is lower gap up, holds, then runs tomorrow, fades Friday. Will look at $tna in the first 30 minutes of trading.
Long NQ and holding puts on growth names for hedge, for now.
So we have a gap up, fades, then rallies – traps shorts then get a gap lower to start Thursday – no one can get their footing except for the lucky – I am not playing this scenario – I am too chicken as I mentioned before….
NQ pops another 100 points if Crude can recover $40/barrel.
Watching AAPL here – if it can break 108, that is a good sign…
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY, ONLY TODAY WE RALLY. FOLLOWS THROUGH INTO TOMORROW.