S.O.B

1,159 views

Forced to sit here and watch the market drip outside of its range on a Friday. What torture.

The good news is that you’ll have THREE whole days to think this through rather than just two.

In a perfect world, I’d love to see a trade back up to 1930 here by the close, but at the moment this can be viewed as acceptance outside of balance. If we do do trade up to or above 1930, this can also be looked upon as the break a range to rip a range set-up. However, this leaves you, the reader gathering info from me that the market could either go up or down from here. I try to avoid those types of posts.

As Raul mentioned, this is the 9th neutral day in a row for the NASDAQ.

“initial balance = range of first hour of trade. neutral day is when you breach both high and low of initial balance. In /nq_F (nasdaq futures) were have done this 9 days in a row. range extension is how we gauge higher time frame participation. If we take out both high and low, we are neutral on the directional conviction of the higher time frame. Neutral extremes carry directional conviction but lately they get faded the next day.”

Next week the market will pick a side. Hopefully one you can play at competitive prices.

 

 

JUST GET SHLONG

2,683 views

I mentioned in my last post that if we lost 1960 today, make way for 1930-35.

However, the way this is all setting up here is to force you to pick a side on Friday and ride the weekend pucker bus.

Might I suggest to you the SHEMITAH STRADDLE™.

I’m sure you’ve all been straddled by mother market a time or two. Now’s your time to give it back to her. Here’s our range again…

SPX30minRight now we’re at $ES_F 1950. That’s the middle of this range. You and I both know we are leaving the range next week. Would you prefer to leave this up to your bias? Would you rather sit the bench and bitch out?

Play the SHEMITAH STRADDLE™. Buy a weekly call and a put for next week, or even for the 9/23 week of expiry. At least you’ll have something on regardless of which way this thing breaks.

Short, long, shlong, SHEMITAH STRADDLE™. You’re welcome.

OA

***Here’s a freebie from After Hours with Option Addict tonight***

STIRRED UP NICELY

875 views

What’s the pain trade here?

Bears got put on skates yesterday. We’re pushing up into the late asshole buyers from late last week. The longer we hang around here, the better. However, I am trying to gauge sentiment for what the next move is here and it seems like both sides are still relatively engaged.

My upside targets on NQ were met and I booked one of my biggest wins in it I’ve ever had. As I mentioned in After Hours with Option Addict Tuesday after the close, I went in and started buying up Nasdaq, Nikkei and Crude contracts. Has been an incredible week.

From here, if we lose 1960 on ES, look for 1935. Here’s your range. Play the tips. They’re getting pretty narrow.SPX30min

WHAT CONVICTION SOUNDS LIKE

2,506 views

In the last few weeks, the periods of collective silence and lack of conviction between parties have been outstanding turning points for the market.

For instance, after you watched stocks give back a 4% gap up on Tuesday, you came in on Wednesday SILENT about the rally into the close call.

After Wednesday, the bulls loitered in the streets talking about how high this thing would go. Gap down on Monday? SILENCE.

Bears were out on my front lawn yesterday after a Dow 500 loss, throwing garbage at my house, telling me how far this thing would drop.

Gap up today? SILENCE.

I think we rally through tomorrow, but that’s just me. I’m only trying to help you wade through the volatility for the next few weeks, and I’ve been pretty fucking spot on.

OA

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS

2,325 views

First of the month today, which means we get to analyze mutual fund activity in terms of redemptions/deposits.

Jeff Saut wrote this yesterday:

The call for this week: A few weeks ago I said I was not concerned with China’s wrongly named “devaluation” and its potential to start a currency war. Over the weekend China stated there is no basis for the renminbi’s continued depreciation. Speaking to China’s impact on the U.S., Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes that China’s economy has only a 16% correlation to the U.S. economy and is therefore insignificant. Bank of America Merrill Lynch writes that $19 billion of mutual fund redemptions occurred last Tuesday, the second largest since 2007, which smacks of capitulation. Of course, capitulation was also registered by two consecutive 90% Downside Days (August 21st and 24th), which were followed by last Thursday’s 90% Upside Day. Such capitulation is typically followed by a two- to seven-session “throwback rally” and then a downside retest. If that pattern plays, it should tell us over the next few weeks if ignoring last Monday’s Dow Theory “sell signal” is the correct strategy. And this morning our late week “call” to not expect much more upside above the 1970 – 2000 level on the SPX appears to be playing with the S&P preopening futures off some 16 points. Stay tuned .

Most of what I am reading here is how far down the market is going. Sentiment flipped hard thus far this week. Pain trade up tomorrow?

HAS ANYONE SEEN MY BALLS?

1,654 views

Anxiety flows into aversion, no?

Have we hit aversion today? Or are you thinking we fit somewhere else in the cycle? Below is a 4hr /ES_F.

2015-09-01_1058

sentimentI’m frozen thus far. I hate volatility.

S.O.B

1,159 views

Forced to sit here and watch the market drip outside of its range on a Friday. What torture.

The good news is that you’ll have THREE whole days to think this through rather than just two.

In a perfect world, I’d love to see a trade back up to 1930 here by the close, but at the moment this can be viewed as acceptance outside of balance. If we do do trade up to or above 1930, this can also be looked upon as the break a range to rip a range set-up. However, this leaves you, the reader gathering info from me that the market could either go up or down from here. I try to avoid those types of posts.

As Raul mentioned, this is the 9th neutral day in a row for the NASDAQ.

“initial balance = range of first hour of trade. neutral day is when you breach both high and low of initial balance. In /nq_F (nasdaq futures) were have done this 9 days in a row. range extension is how we gauge higher time frame participation. If we take out both high and low, we are neutral on the directional conviction of the higher time frame. Neutral extremes carry directional conviction but lately they get faded the next day.”

Next week the market will pick a side. Hopefully one you can play at competitive prices.

 

 

JUST GET SHLONG

2,683 views

I mentioned in my last post that if we lost 1960 today, make way for 1930-35.

However, the way this is all setting up here is to force you to pick a side on Friday and ride the weekend pucker bus.

Might I suggest to you the SHEMITAH STRADDLE™.

I’m sure you’ve all been straddled by mother market a time or two. Now’s your time to give it back to her. Here’s our range again…

SPX30minRight now we’re at $ES_F 1950. That’s the middle of this range. You and I both know we are leaving the range next week. Would you prefer to leave this up to your bias? Would you rather sit the bench and bitch out?

Play the SHEMITAH STRADDLE™. Buy a weekly call and a put for next week, or even for the 9/23 week of expiry. At least you’ll have something on regardless of which way this thing breaks.

Short, long, shlong, SHEMITAH STRADDLE™. You’re welcome.

OA

***Here’s a freebie from After Hours with Option Addict tonight***

STIRRED UP NICELY

875 views

What’s the pain trade here?

Bears got put on skates yesterday. We’re pushing up into the late asshole buyers from late last week. The longer we hang around here, the better. However, I am trying to gauge sentiment for what the next move is here and it seems like both sides are still relatively engaged.

My upside targets on NQ were met and I booked one of my biggest wins in it I’ve ever had. As I mentioned in After Hours with Option Addict Tuesday after the close, I went in and started buying up Nasdaq, Nikkei and Crude contracts. Has been an incredible week.

From here, if we lose 1960 on ES, look for 1935. Here’s your range. Play the tips. They’re getting pretty narrow.SPX30min

WHAT CONVICTION SOUNDS LIKE

2,506 views

In the last few weeks, the periods of collective silence and lack of conviction between parties have been outstanding turning points for the market.

For instance, after you watched stocks give back a 4% gap up on Tuesday, you came in on Wednesday SILENT about the rally into the close call.

After Wednesday, the bulls loitered in the streets talking about how high this thing would go. Gap down on Monday? SILENCE.

Bears were out on my front lawn yesterday after a Dow 500 loss, throwing garbage at my house, telling me how far this thing would drop.

Gap up today? SILENCE.

I think we rally through tomorrow, but that’s just me. I’m only trying to help you wade through the volatility for the next few weeks, and I’ve been pretty fucking spot on.

OA

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS

2,325 views

First of the month today, which means we get to analyze mutual fund activity in terms of redemptions/deposits.

Jeff Saut wrote this yesterday:

The call for this week: A few weeks ago I said I was not concerned with China’s wrongly named “devaluation” and its potential to start a currency war. Over the weekend China stated there is no basis for the renminbi’s continued depreciation. Speaking to China’s impact on the U.S., Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes that China’s economy has only a 16% correlation to the U.S. economy and is therefore insignificant. Bank of America Merrill Lynch writes that $19 billion of mutual fund redemptions occurred last Tuesday, the second largest since 2007, which smacks of capitulation. Of course, capitulation was also registered by two consecutive 90% Downside Days (August 21st and 24th), which were followed by last Thursday’s 90% Upside Day. Such capitulation is typically followed by a two- to seven-session “throwback rally” and then a downside retest. If that pattern plays, it should tell us over the next few weeks if ignoring last Monday’s Dow Theory “sell signal” is the correct strategy. And this morning our late week “call” to not expect much more upside above the 1970 – 2000 level on the SPX appears to be playing with the S&P preopening futures off some 16 points. Stay tuned .

Most of what I am reading here is how far down the market is going. Sentiment flipped hard thus far this week. Pain trade up tomorrow?

HAS ANYONE SEEN MY BALLS?

1,654 views

Anxiety flows into aversion, no?

Have we hit aversion today? Or are you thinking we fit somewhere else in the cycle? Below is a 4hr /ES_F.

2015-09-01_1058

sentimentI’m frozen thus far. I hate volatility.