Daily Reminder: The ‘Cyber Security’ Fad Was a Scam

With so many Russian hackers out there wreaking havoc, you’d think there would be demand for these piece of shit software companies who take advantage of weak minded morons running IT budgets for fortune 500 companies. I can recall a conversation that I had with an executive at Bofa/Merrill, who was in charge of a $500m per annum IT budget, who declared the cyber security sector ‘a fucking scam’ — bitching about prices being artificially and predatorily high.

When he took the role, he canceled all contracts and was working on crafting new ones — at much lower prices. That was two years ago.

Since then, $FEYE is down 75%, $VDSI -48%, $CUDA -37%, $QLYS -24% and today’s leader to the downside, $PANW -18%.

PANW just warned and guides lower. The party is, inexorably, fucking over for them.

Source: UBS

UBS downgrades PANW to Neutral from Buy and raises their tgt to $160 from $130. Amid a tough set-up, an across the board weak F2Q marked PANW’s 3rd set of inconsistent results in the LTM, ascribed to broad-based, go-to-market issues, aggravated by unforeseen purchasing pauses consequent to PANW’s recent slate of new product releases. While lower sales productivity and poor pipeline conversion were specific culprits cited, firm thinks investors are increasingly unlikely to dismiss competitive factors (CSCO’s security growth has been stable and respectable in mid/high-teens; peers CHKP, FTNT capped off strong CY16s) from here on. What has now emerged as a pattern of inconsistent execution and stark decel optics, firm sees PANW’s heretofore premium valuation as likely impaired, with a re-rating contingent on multiple Qs of growth reacceleration and “clean” results. As such, they are moving to the sidelines as they see the stock range-bound until the execution uncertainty clears.

Staying the course, George Bushing this market has proven to be eventful for me, during 2017. While many out there hem and haw, blowing themselves up in errant bets — based off stupid ideas, Le Fly rides in his 1980s style stretch limo — accumulating Trump trades.

The trade is simple, as it is ideological. There is going to be a great build out in America over the next 4 years. Infrastructure spending and less regulatory hurdles will greatly cause demand for steel to soar. In order to galvanize steel, zinc is required — a far less abundantly supplied metal than steel.

Prices will rise, fortunes will be made.

As of several weeks ago, I was and am presently 160% long in the following names.

For the most part, it’s an equal weighted portfolio — with a little emphasis on $UEC and $CLF. For the session, my gains are upwards of 5% — all but negating my recent drawdown — placing my year to date returns at +13%.

All in a days work.

Those are my charts. Now go fuck yourselves.

This is a savage assault upon Merkel, delivered with fierce Marine Le Pen — who called Germany a ‘servant to America.’ I’ve never seen anything quite like it, frankly. It bordered on sabre rattling before a declaration of war.

Le Pen emphatically rejected the subjugation and ‘vassilisation’ of Europe by Germany — declaring her intentions to break off from it — representative of an ‘intelligent protectionism’, individual liberties and defense of safety and identity.

French Presidential elections start on 4/23/17 and end on 5/7/17.

Markets are forward looking indicators. Over the past 8 years, the market kept pricing in central bank rigging, rightly so. From the BOJ to the ECB to our Fed, central banks showed a keen willingness to boost asset prices since the financial crisis in 2008 — helping reflate equities and keep Humpty Dumpty together. What Trump is talking about is totally different — a return to American greatness, something that resonates with just about all Americans — because everyone loves a fairytale.

Whether he can pull it off or not is immaterial as of today. All people care about now is the future and how bright it looks. Gone are the dreary days of being beholden to Fed speeches, listening to ugly people in bad clothes discuss our future. These new plans that Trump has outlined paints a colorful picture of an American renaissance — high paying jobs for all, affordable healthcare, strong military, strong borders — peace.

At some point in life, you start figuring out mostly everything you knew was bullshit, smoke and mirrors, parlour tricks, a delightful game of three card monte until the end. People want to believe. Trump is a superb salesman, probably the best you’ve ever seen — because you don’t see him coming. At times he sounds off the cuff, petulant, and unrehearsed — drawing jeers from professional losers. That’s likely done with purpose. You don’t see him coming, a yet here he is worth $10b and President of the United States.

The market is the sum total of hope, the expectations of the masses, an endless parry betwixt by fear and greed.

The bond market is getting destroyed today, thanks to the Fed. The 10yr bond is up 10bps to 2.45% — moving in the opposite direction of stocks — which are gloriously higher by nearly 250.

The run higher in basic materials can best be represented by the ETF $XME. If you’ve missed out on this run and are afraid to buy into a furious rally, hold tight and buy later. But, there isn’t a strong likelihood that equities will correct from now until May. There is a sea change taking place. It’s important that you understand the difference between a Fed induced rally and one on the merits of real economic growth.

This is political. Trump’s policies are the opposite of what Obama envisioned, which is an economy stifled and burdened by heavy taxes, regulations, currying favor to mercenary capitalists — literally helping them move jobs abroad to lower costs. There is an ideology behind that way of thinking of course: safe the earth fom humans, uplift the living standards of people abroad, help all of humanity via organized and command economic structures coupled with philanthropic organizations etc.

This is all bullshit, the machinations of deluded people, failures.

You cannot help others while sick. The President’s job should be to advocate for his citizens first, everyone else second.

Enough of the fucking ranting. Go enjoy the cocaine rally.

The market is ripping higher out from the gates this morning, enjoying the aura of last night’s Presidential address to congress — starring Donald John Trump. In it, he proposed many things, most of which has been dicusssd in these hallowed halls. The one thing he didn’t do, which was hoped for by many on the left, was chimp out and cast aspersions, talk greasy about one of his many enemies.

That’s all the market needed to see, a consensus opinion that is strong and bold around the President’s proposed policies.

On that news, basic material stocks are exploding to the upside, as predicted, by Exodus.

Simultaneously, the devils at the Fed are looking to hike again in March. The chances of a March hike are now nearing 70%.

Who the fuck do they think they are? Clearly, it’s antithetical to the views of the President, and the tenets of economics, to hike rates into a weak economy. Yeah, I know, America is great again; but we need to finance these proposals first in order to stoke growth. What the Fed is doing, essentially, is treasonous — purposely attempting to derail the real recovery before it even happens.

Explain to me why we should hike rates after seeing horrendous retail sales from just about every mall operator, including $TGT? GDP is still sub 2% and zero of Trump’s stimulative policies have been enacted.

ARREST JANET YELLEN NOW. We cannot afford her shenanigans any longer.

What the fuck was this all about?

Here’s the token black guy, who was likely flown in from San Francisco by one of the special interest groups within the DNC.

And here is former governor of Kentucky, who was roundly defeated by a republican, start his speech with incomprehensible gibberish.

I have no idea who Steve Beshear is, but neither does Steve Beshear pic.twitter.com/JFzBJIuTkW

— The Swog Blog (@TheSwogBlog) March 1, 2017

That is your democratic party, in a nutshell — fuckery largess, totally and completely irrelevant. The insanity is quickening.

The big winner was $HOG — due to Trump explicitly singling them out for facing tax barriers into foreign markets. The gist of Trump’s speech, which was probably his best ever, was to usher in a renewal to American greatness — to defend American interests here and abroad.

Many of the same classic Trumpisms were evoked, such as building the wall, defending American jobs by doing fair trade deals, and increasing the military budget.

One of the low points for the democrats, which was truly reprehensible, was when Trump featured 4 people who lost loved ones to illegal immigrants — part of a group called VOICE.

WATCH: Trump announces an office to focus on crimes done by immigrants called VOICE (Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement) pic.twitter.com/1LfHrvxW6u

— UPROXX (@UPROXX) March 1, 2017

He was very strong on infrastructure, lower taxes and hard on the drug companies. If anything, it reaffirmed his pro-growth narrative with harsh undertones for big pharma.