The VIX Bottomed Out and Stocks Got Killed

The widely owned FANNG and THAT FAG PUB investment strategies are getting hammered, amidst a cacophony of sell orders.

ZH is trying to tie the sell off to some research note out of JPM.

ZPN is suggesting that democrats are shattin’in their pantaloons. Hence, the market doesn’t like it.

Earlier today I warned that trannies were getting killed and the Dow theory said ‘watch out below.’

We were all wrong. Let me explain.

VIX shorts are shattin’ in their pantaloons

Just yesterday I made the outrageous claim that XIV (inverse VIX) was the real Bernie Madoff, sans the fraud.

Today the VIX is spiking — because enough it enough. The good time have ended now — prepare to soil yourselves amidst the clangor of chaos.

These horrors are bore witness to inside the FANNG and THAT FAG PUB today.

Today’s bright and shining star is upside VIX ETF, UVXY. The triple lindy VIX, TVIX, is following in kind.

In short, the trannies topped on the same day Trump banned them from the military. All of the leadership stocks are getting killed. And, lastly, the volatility index nearly touched the 8s and is now demon racing higher.

Watch out below and please don’t shat your pantaloons.

Since election night, the stock price of the ‘failing Ny Times’ is up a little more than 75%. Their online subscriptions have been soaring and business is booming — all thanks to President Trump.

Palace intrigue is the culprit. For those of you that still believe the MSM is dying, I am here to tell you otherwise. The final redpill is knowing that Trump was elected to bailout the main stream media and convert democrats into deep state loving war mongers.

The NYT reported earning this morning, beating estimates — helped by a 63% jump in online subscriptions.

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.14; revenues rose 9.3% year/year to $407.1 mln vs the $393.07 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

Paid digital-only subscriptions totaled approximately 2,333,000 at the end of the second quarter of 2017, a net increase of 114,000 subscriptions compared to the end of the first quarter of 2017 and a 63.4 percent increase compared to the end of the second quarter of 2016.

Second-quarter print advertising revenue decreased 10.5 percent, while digital advertising revenue increased 22.5 percent. Digital advertising revenue was $55.2 million, or 41.7 percent of total Company advertising revenues, compared with $45.0 million, or 34.3 percent, in the second quarter of 2016.

Guidance: Total subscription revenues in the third quarter of 2017 are expected to increase at a rate similar to that of the second quarter of 2017. Total advertising revenues in the third quarter of 2017 are expected to decrease in the mid- to high-single digits compared with the third quarter of 2016. Operating costs and adjusted operating costs are expected to increase in the mid-single digits in the third quarter of 2017 compared with the third quarter of 2016.

 

This tweet likely added 10,000 subscriptions
 
By what I can see, the company is doing quite well and not ‘failing’ at all. As a matter of fact, their online business is thriving and quickly displacing traditional print.

It’s also worth noting, the stock price hasn’t been this high since 2007.

You cannot buy advertising like this
 
According to the Trump Twitter archive, Trump has tweeted about the NY Times at least 121 times.

It’s our job, whether we like it or not, to be on the lookout for risks. I know, it’s a mundane theory to think about the downside, since all we do it go up.

However, according to the Dow Theory, we should be trembling in our boots, ‘shatting in our pantaloons’ over the recent pin action in the transportation stocks.

Today’s drop is courtesy of LSTR earnings. Other stocks in the group that are washing lower include KNX, CVTI, FWRD, CSX and a bunch of other rails and the airlines.

The reason why people chimp out when the IYT drops is because the transports represent vitality, or lack thereof, of the US economy. When things are bustling, the trannies do well. When the economy is slowing, the weakness is often first cited in the transports.

Josh Green from Bloomberg was taken aback by Scaramucci’s interview with CNN’s Chris Cuomo, disturbed by Mooch’s ‘jocular’ demeanor.

“How bizarre and unusual what just transpired is…even if it’s a joke, it’s weird — the whole jocular towel snapping live on air thing…”

Here’s Josh Green expressing his moral indignation to Scaramucci’s live on air towel snapping of the White House leakers, ironically reading another leak on air regarding the crack down of leaks.

“A Car Crash”

The ride never ends.

Last night, ZPN did s great job in documenting the Amazing-balls (I hate that expression, ergo I use it here) Scaramucci drama — implicating Trump’s Chief of Staff, Reince Priebus as a leaker.

Scaramucci called the FBI on him and would like to see the leaker die in jail.

This morning, the new White House strongman is doubling down on his rhetoric, saying Reince should explain how he’s not the leaker and that the leaks are ‘treasonous’ — citing the fact that these actions would’ve earned an intimate relationship with the gibbet 150 years ago.

I’m not saying Reince did it, but Reince did it.

THEY’D BE HUNG!

What does this all mean?

Trump made lousy cabinet picks. He was trying to be friends with the establishment he said was the enemy. They turned on him, immediately, and now he’s cleaning house.

There will be hangings.

Comparing the two companies is just downright depressing for TWTR lovers. The’ve been nothing but abject failures ever since coming public — and the losses continue.

Facebook is rising off record earnings, a ‘monopoly’ on mobile advertising — and overall great feelings.

Needham Research notes Facebook over-delivered upwardly revised estimates. Advertising revenue of $9.2B grew faster, up 47% y/y (49% y/y Ex-FX). Mobile revenue of $8B grew 53% y/y, and represented 87% of ad revenue in 2Q17. FB has a mobile monopoly. Most impressively (to firm) is that, despite over-delivering revenue growth, FB lowered its operating expense guidance to 40%-45% growth (from 40%-50% previously) and its CapX guidance to the lower end of its $7-$7.5B range, implying rapidly improving capital efficiency. This is supported by FCF of $3.9B in 2Q17, well above projections.

Twitter is plunging by 10% — because the platform is uninviting, filled with cucks, and used by the elite to control the dissemination of information.

As it relates to the back half of the year did note that while encouraged by the improvement of overall revenue trends, co does not expect to see revenue growth rates improve for the second half of 2017 because the headwinds; that’s primarily tied to the Teleport business but there’s some other comparables in there that are difficult and so the $75 million is a combination of the products co de-emphasized and some tougher comps as it relates to live which TWTR is encouraged can chip away at given the great site we have

And there it is, the company does not expect growth in the second half. Absolutely amazing.

If you were to visit my house and open up your briefcase and pull out a brochure that described the returns I could receive from simply betting against volatility, I’d probably dismiss you as a tin man, a two bit pirate and boiler room salesman.

Over the past 5 years, XIV (inverse VIX ETF) has outperformed by SPY by more than 6x — netting +683%. That’s real money. Had you taken this trade 5 years ago, you were likely in a forlorn position, beholden to the daily news flow out of Europe, hoping the Greek government would capitulate and bend the knee to Germany.

The ironic part about betting against volatility is that the trade worked wonders during a time of heightened political instability. We’ve gone through wars, ISIS, banking scares, China scares, Trump/BREXIT/Le Pen scares, and yet here we are with a 9 handle on the VIX.

I must admit, there is an ardent specter of futility when facing the realization of the  obvious outperformance of the XIV. It is humbling. Over the past 5 years, I could’ve cast aside all financial models and simply bought XIV, especially on dips, doing away with my absurd swashbuckling journeys throughout the cavernous treacheries of the market.

Then again, it isn’t much fun to make money without a little adventure.

I’m not a fan of airing out grievances in a public forum. As public as I am, I’d never discuss personnel changes or grievances with you misfits. It doesn’t serve a purpose. The fact that Trump is humiliating Sessions on a daily basis must mean that either Trump is a supreme asshole or Sessions deserves it.

Critiques argue that the AG isn’t Trump’s lawyer. That’s a lie. Both AG Holder and Lynch were, in fact, Obama’s surrogates and shilled for him on a daily basis. They even shilled for Hillary Clinton during the campaign, partly because they were both corrupt zealots of the deep state.

This morning Trump hit Sessions for not replacing the acting head of the FBI, who is, without a doubt, a Clinton mobster.

Why didn't A.G. Sessions replace Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, a Comey friend who was in charge of Clinton investigation but got….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 26, 2017

…big dollars ($700,000) for his wife's political run from Hillary Clinton and her representatives. Drain the Swamp!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 26, 2017

These tweets are designed to apply pressure on Sessions to quit. After the inauguration, Trump looked like he wanted a detente with the establishment. He even said he would not pursue Hillary Clinton for crimes against the state. But that all changed after the democrats and establishment sought to imprison Trump and his family, via ‘Russian ties.’

So, here were are now, with a very militant Trump in search of retribution and revenge. To accomplish this, he’s gonna need a war time AG. Sessions doesn’t have it in him.

Rightards are freaking out over this, especially the neocon scum.

It really isn't right to say Donald Trump is "humiliating" or "shaming" Jeff Sessions. Donald Trump is humiliating and shaming himself.

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2017

And for your Trumptards out there: none of this is ‘good news’ for the President. His administration, right or wrong, has been a fucking circus act from day 1. Efficient operators are able to foresee trouble ahead; Trump did not. Instead, he’s busy cleaning up after his initial mistakes. Most of his supporters were angered by his cabinet picks when he chose them — but only now — 6 months into his administration is he realizing they’re mostly trash.

The short answer is yes.

Historically, buying crude in the summer months has resulted in utter catastrophe. The driving season is winding down and there isn’t a person in America not interested in buying a Tesla now. The era of the oil barrel is coming to an end. With oil bouncing over the past week and stock prices stabilizing over the past month, a new cadre of bargain shoppers have been entering ‘the patch’ in search of riches. These blackguardly people will be dispatched in a most fastidious manner. Their losses will heinous and their subsequent demeanor unseasonable.

Have a look for yourselves. This is the oil and gas drillers seasonality data, courtesy of Exodus. This data stretches back decades.

Buy in January, clowns

Month to date, crude stocks are +5%. Judging by the dominant trend which has persisted for two years now, this qualifies to be called ‘a dead cat bounce.’

I was stuck in an auto mechanic shop, which reeked of engine oil.

I know why some of you are missing out on this rally and it has nothing to do with rational thinking.

Your notion that stocks are gookf lower because we’re at record highs and have enjoyed uninterrupted success is flawed. The same logic applied to the time when you played roulette and black came up 5 times in a row. You bey on red, hoping for a change. What you didn’t take into account was that every spin was equal and the data set infinite. Just because it landed on black 5 times in a row doesn’t mean the odds of it landing on red the next turn increases.

With stocks there’s the added incentive of momentum, meaning you’re better off betting on black all day than the rarely seen red.

I haven’t been able to peruse the news. But I see Trump banned trans-faggots from the military. I have nothing against gay people. They suck just like everyone else. However, transgenders are mentally ill and should stay away from a god damned war and/or military unit.

If you want to cut your dick off and prance around in dress, you’re not going to be doing that shit in the marines — you sick bastards.

Back to dealing with my faggot car.

PS: Boeing crushed numbers.