When to Sell?

I want you to examine the monthly returns for the $QQQ since 1999.

You see that there are just two months out of the year when stocks trade lower.

The NASDAQ went down just two times since 2008.

If you chose to invest in any day during the week, only Friday would be a bad time.

My point is — markets are RIGGED to go higher. The times it drops — it’s fairly predictable and if you’re paying close attention — you can avoid the bulk of the drawdown. This doesn’t have to be complicated. If you’re only focused on shorting the market, you are trading too emotionally. The numbers do not lie and the only way a person could’ve lost money in the tape since 2009 is if her was in stocks non-central to the greater economic schemes of the world. In other words, own companies that correlate to the economy and not outliers in the tech and biotech realm.

The question of “when to sell?” is an evergreen one, something myself have wrestled with intensely during my entire career. Since I trade a lot and am always fishing for new ideas — I often sell stocks that later run up to be great winners. I justify my actions by pointing to my returns being great and the idea that stocks are mere vehicles to an ultimate destination. You do not need to be fixed to one. HOWEVER, not everyone can trade as good as me or have the time necessary to keep in tune with trends. For those people I suggest a quarterly review and stringent dedication to allocation weightings.

I’ve said this many times before and I will repeat it now.

If you start a position in XYZ at 5% and it jumps to 9%, at your quarterly adjustment — pare it back down to 5% and if you have a down stock at 3%, increase it to 5%. We are assuming the long term fundamentals are still intact for the loser and nothing material has changed. If the loser missed earnings and lowered guidance and is counter-correlating its peer group — SELL IT and replace it with a company performing well.

Shares of $DWAC merged into $DJT and is up more than 40% today, making Trump more than $600m today alone. At 58% ownership, Trump’s net worth teeters on $7b.

I won’t be chasing DJT any time soon and if you search the archives of this site, you will find me to be infuriated with Trump the last time he brought his casino public only to soon flop out later completely bankrupted. For my speculative fervor, I must prefer shares of $RUM, which is a real business powered by the dissident right, who is largely disenfranchised in American main stream media today.

Early going I’m up 43bps, mostly cash now.

AI is just another iteration of Web 2.0. We will continue, as a species, to develop technologies that increases productivity, proving the genetic resources remain viable. If you’re attempting to play AI via software applications, you’re barking up the wrong tree. Think of it like the internet and the apps are simply websites. It’s far too early to see which apps will win, since nearly all companies are deploying AI technology into their workflow.

Instead, focus on the infrastructure which makes it all possible. The obvious play is $NVDA with 75% share of the AI chip market. But there are other, not so obvious plays.

Chip design: $CDNS, $SNPS
Database/Server: $AMZN, $SMCI, $ALAB, $MSFT, $MDB, $ORCL
Foundries: Samsung, $TSM, $AMKR
Database chips: $AMD
Services: $ACN
Chips: $NVDA, $MU, $ARM, $QCOM, $INTC
Security: $PLTR

And then there is the wide pastiche of smaller plays that can pop 10x or collapse by 100%. But if you’re wanting an allocation into AI now, I would advise legging in over the next 12 months with quarterly allocations in order to avoid poor timing, considering the recent run.

It’s akin to a gold rush and where the money is most frequently made is via the vendors of picks and shovels, rather than the prospectors.

Today’s runners include: $ALAB, $CDLX, $CENX,$CIFR, $CLSK, $MSTR, $COIN, $DWAC, $GME, $MU, $RDDT, $SMCI, $EGY

Notice any trends? If not, you’re retarded. Mostly, today is about $BTC soaring mixed in with some big risk on plays, chiefly amongst AI and meme stocks. The overall health of the tape is mid — nothing to get excited about. I remain hedged with a 22% position in $TZA and I am about flat for the session. The one day I did not buy $BITX and it soars to the fucking moon. That’s the market. Sometimes you get lucky and other times you’re cursed.

Into the close, I could see the tape unraveling, since we’re held together by retarded stocks at the moment.

One thing is indelibly clear, whether you’re long or short the market, the overall trend of purchasing power for fiat currencies, specifically dollars, is straight down. We had a brief respite only in 2008-2009, as we descended into a deflationary vortex. But other than that, holding dollars in your account was a detriment to you almost every single day of your lives.

I hear people talk about “King Dollar” often, boastful about how much better our piece of shit currency is versus the next one but at the end of the day — fiat currencies are designed to go lower. Central banks print more and do as they like with it and does not care if the purchasing power of said currencies collapses over time. If you live in America or Europe you are lucky there is a cabal protecting the currencies against the rest of the world’s, otherwise you’d see a Turkey styled rout and subsequent deterioration of public trust in the currency.

You look at $GLD and $BTC now and see they’re both at record highs. Gold is of course the old school hedge against the dollar and $BTC is a newer waive digital currency that can and will be used for purchases — widely adopted by people all over the world. The transfer of fiat to $GLD/$BTC is why they’re at record highs and I’d like to know why anyone should think this dynamic of depreciating fiat/higher $GLD, $BTC will change any time soon?

It’s also worth nothing that stocks is also a great hedge against your dollars losing value, which is the express goal of the FOMC: getting you to sell dollars for stocks to support this fucking house of cards economic system we have today, cobbled together with spit and masking tape.

I was going to post a bunch of graphs and data to cajole you absolute fuckheads about how to invest your money for the long term — but opted instead to just talk plainly.

As some of you know, I used to do this professionally and quit the business in 2017, right before markets melted up and everyone got rich. At any rate, there are some core tenets you need to understand about investing, if doing it for yourself. BTW: I used to really believe YOU (unwashed reader class, self directed catamite) could do it on your own and advisors were superfluous. However, the problem I have begun to accept is too many of you do not fear losing money, unlike advisors who are under regulatory scrutiny. In other words, you’re just as smart as an RIA but the RIA is afraid of mismanaging your funds because he’ll be fined/go to jail. This is an important impetus and you really should treat your own money as if it was someone else’s and if you fuck up — you’re going straight to jail — no bail.

Enough rambling: here are the rules.

Position sizes should be 3-8%. Anything lower should be increased, anything higher trimmed. When putting together a core portfolio it must be diverse. Unlike in America, the investment world is really better when diverse. It quite literally is your strength. This means you don’t just buy $ADBE, $INTU, $CRM and $AAPL and call it a day. Sure, those stocks would’ve made you rich the past 10 years — but you must invest today for the future not the past. This means gaining exposure to staples, basic materials, industrials, even utes is a must.

Market caps should not be less than $10b, generally. You might have a favorite growth stock that is small — but those fuckers can be placed inside a basket of other stocks comprising of a full allocation of 3-8%. A stock like $PLUG should never be a pillar in a long term account — no matter how much you like it.

Philosophically, you should invest your account as if you were about to die and the children you leave it to are either too young or stupid to manage it after your demise. The stocks should be rock solid FCF positive names and those stocks should be left alone to grow and not micromanaged to accommodate your feelings. This means, whenever you really believe markets will crash and all is lost — you step the fuck away and eat a sandwich.

Trust the process and assume the rigged markets will continue to be rigged in your favor — especially since you’re long stocks that are central to current hegemonic rule.

Long ago in the early days of iBankCoin, I used to jest about not wanting “olds” reading the site, anyone over the age of 47.5. It was an arbitrary line in the sand, something conjured up by yours truly when in my late 20s. My plans for iBC wasn’t immediate or long term. It was simply a venue for me to express my rage and trading ideas in a public forum, doing so in private because I was professionally licensed. Well, I’m not licensed anymore but still maintain a thin veneer of anonymity — only because it’s just the way it is. I’ve spoken to many of you throughout the years, attended iBC conferences under a different name, and generally enjoyed my time doing the site because I truly love writing and even more — trading.

This is not a send off or an announcement that I’m retiring from blogging. I do not understand why people ever do that — but instead an informative post to document that yours truly is indeud above the age of 47.5, quickly steaming for 48. I was supposed to be kicked off the site by way of age limits back in the fall of ’23, yet here I am defying the rules and still blogging.

Has anything changed from my late 20s till now?

I’d like to travel back in time and slap the shit out of myself for all of the mistakes I was bound to make. First and foremost, I’d like to inform myself that instead of blogging about how stupid $BTC was at $85 in 2013, I should buy it with all of my gusto. My life, just like yours, is filled with learning experiences and the older I get the more I seem to understand the manner in which life should be lived. I used to place heavy emphasis on money and worked round the clock for it, chasing a dream that was conjured up as a young impoverished boy — an idea that if I made enough my life would mean something. Meanwhile, the time spend chasing that dream was time away from my family and/or building life skills that could be used to improve the quality and happiness of my existence.

It’s true, I consider myself to be a great trader with sometimes supernatural instincts. But like everyone else, I fall prey to boredom and sloth and become disinterested in my craft — due to the monotonous hamster wheel existence that I sometimes feel that I’m in. But what has learning how to trade really done for me in the big scheme of things, other than provide me with money to eat and drink and travel?

But then I think about my skills and how I could transfer them to others to help them expedite their learning process, hopefully leading to the improvement of their lives. I think I’ve done so on a limited scale. I do find that many of the people who joined The PPT, Exodus or Stocklabs learn and have fun in the chat — but far too many fall victim to a gamblers fallacy and perhaps lose interest in the things I have to say in exchange for chasing their big trade — because at the end of the day men want to create their own way and be great on their own without the help of anyone.

I respect that I wish I could communicate better to convince some of you absolute fuckheads the mistakes you’re making aren’t new and have been replayed thousands of times in the past and will be played in the future.

At any rate, I closed the week with marginal gains, really blowing some nice wins the past two days. I am never chagrined by missed trades or small slumps — because I know the true value is the skills that I have which can and will be applied over the course of my lifetime. Futures winners will be enjoyed and magnanimous returns achieved, providing I remain living.

Ciao.

In miraculous form, the NASDAQ is +50 whilst nearly 80% of stocks are lower. It’s the usual suspects: $NVDA, $GOOGL, $AAPL and the gang powering it forward. The tape looks like Joe Biden trying to give an impassioned speech. The words are there, if not bumbled and mumbled, but it’s also lacking a certain penache.

My wife’s Mother has a friend whose entire familiar just busted loose from their S. American enclave of abject poverty into the United States. Amazingly, as the story goes, the whole bloodline crossed over — 50 people in total — and they’re now traversing the American landscape — perhaps in search of bounty and free homes. As per her last update, they’ve chanced upon the great state of S. Carolina in their never-ending quest towards NYC — where I am sure they intend to steal your homes. Who can stop them?

I am just settling in here now, had an earlier scare with dog getting stung by a wasp. But she appears to be alright. I’ll fire up the old kettle and make myself a fucking pour over and then get to work on attempting to make some sense of this rancid tape.

There is no website that I hate more than Reddit. It is the epitome of bad — bad design, information, bad people. I used to cavort there and was even an admin on WallStreetBets for awhile — but was quickly infuriated by the brand of person who travels there. They are the very worst people in the world, pathetic even. The CEO is a liberal cock-sucking piece of shit and I really do hope the stock CRESCENDOS to ZERO — bankrupting all involved.

I was ENTREATED to early gains of 170bps and like a son of a bitch gave 90bps back, closing the day +80bps. I am hedged with a 12% SOXS position because fuck the semiconductors — but I really don’t have a strong bias for downside action.

I would hope, in a poetically romantic way, the IPO of Reddit ushers in the apocalypse — broken elevator pin action with accounts spiraling to zero and lower into the sub-basements of negative equity — squatters from Mexico taking over houses in America — supported by neoliberal laws that give them the right to do so.

Not a single person will do anything about — rather opting for supporting foreign wars in a distant land for their agenda.

I’d wish you good luck but I really couldn’t care less. Don’t be cross, as I don’t give a fuck if I make grandiose returns either — would prefer to bear witness to a catastrophic irreversible collapse rather than see this tape print another record high.

In Stocklabs, we have various tools to ensure that I have an edge over the lot of you plebeian class of investor, those scrounging around in search of good fortune. As many of you know, I make my own good fortune and have entrusted computers to assist along the way.

The question of “when should I buy?” is always tossed onto my lap like a live hand grenade. I have zero upside in answering it so I regularly tell people to “fuck off and hire an investment advisor” when they posit it at my person. However, the real answer is dependent on many things. If you’re looking to buy $NVDA for its AI exposure I’d tell you to dollar cost average once per qt for the next year, opting to not place earmarked dollars into it all at once now. Similarly, if you asked me “when is a good time to own $HOOD?” I’d tell you right now.

But there is data to review that can increase our chances at winning. For example, statistically the best time to own the $QQQ is October.

The best day of the week to be long stocks is Monday.

And the best time of day to buy them is 2pm.  If you’re highly autistic, this might appeal to your habitual ways.

I prefer to look at mean reversion vs momentum trading. Once upon a time I really liked mean reversion and made a living analyzing and acting upon it. These days I prefer buying into strength. The data suggests I am correct, surveying the overbought signals inside Stocklabs. Had you only bought the $QQQ when SL flagged OB over the past year, your win rate would be 90%, 9 out of 10 winning trades.

There are many ways to win and I am always trying to find new methods to improve my trading. I suppose the true lesson in all of this jibber-jabbering is if you’re not dedicating like I am in trying to trade better — how the fuck do you expect to ever be better than me? You can take that as a direct attack or if you prefer metaphorical. Take it however you like it. But you’ll never be great at anything without putting in the work. I almost feel like punching myself in the face for writing a Gary V line — but the point remains that many of you are lazy and try to take short cuts and blow the fuck up and out of the market. Compound your returns you stupid son of a bitches and be happy — God damn it.