And We’re Back

I made sure to get back in the market at 100% long for the morning rip to run. For the sesh, I finished at RECOURD highs +166bps for the day. There isn’t a bearish case to be made; however there is divergence in the overall breadth and of course an off chance we might trade lower tomorrow.

It’s hard to be too cautious or bearish here, due to the overall set up.

My bias is for a heavy tech position here but it will be short term. On longer term accounts, I see nothing wrong with a balanced portfolio of high EBITDA companies but with an express underweight allocation into basic materials.

Overall, I’m pleased with my feel for the tape and hope I can extend my YTD gains into the best months of the calendar year to close out 2024.

I switched back to a 95% cash position, booking the early gains of +110bps. The rationale is multilayered but mostly due to me being on vacation coupled with a much weaker open than I expected and finally me being back to RECOURD highs, +15.2% YTD.

My intent is to remain in cash until the end of the session, at which point I’ll decide a tactical position.

Today is a classic example of why you need to remain long at all times: massive busting loose of indices following much better than expected results from $MU. Couple the Micron news with the developments out of China and we have ourselves a GIGA RALLY.

If you sold yesterday because the market was narrow and annoying, you missed out today. Should you decide to chase this rally, you might end up losing some money on a minor pullback off the highs.

We are still bullish and fight the inner bear every single second of every single day. But you’d need to be a god damned moron to not see the writing on the wall and the guts of the bears festooned all over the floor.

Breadth is again weak and most areas of the tape are lower; but I’m still bullish and there’s nothing you can say or do to stop me.

I’m up just 20bps, 20% cash, just sort of gliding into the session and enjoying life. I can see how some of you are frightened of your own shadows and bail out at the first sign of weakness. But I believe there to be a boon coming and this will provide markets with the tinder they need to light it up higher.

Anything can happen and I could end up being wrong; but I doubt it. We have central banks around the world increasing the money supply and you’re bearish?

At any rate, I’ll be heading out to some vineyards today to achieve some morning drinking and then later eat out at one of these restaurants. I’ll be heading back to NC on Saturday, fully back in the saddle by next week.

Side note: I cannot stand one of my dogs. She’s a spiteful little fucker and Mrs Fly’s favorite, naturally. If she was a person, the dog I speak of, she wouldn’t be considered a good person but very bad and people would hate her fucking guts, perhaps throw stones or potatoes at her and never want to be around her because she sucks.

I’m not at the desk but I’m trading from my phone using the screens in Stocklabs, just buying and holding for now. The trend is strong and it would behoove me to doubt that the bullish fervor was going to end soon.

I closed +35bps in narrow trading, with gains abundant in areas I wasn’t represented: materials and China. Today was all about China but I suspect we’ll see a broadening out tomorrow.

If you’re shorting stocks now, you are not a serious trader and might be better off resigning.

Stocks are near or at recourd highs. Central banks are undergoing monetary stimulus programs at a time when profits and sentiment is strong. This is a recipe, dare I say, for a runaway market, predicated under the auspices of animal spirits.

The only thing that stops this, in my opinion, is a geopolitical event, which of course is very possible.

But for now, I’m bullish, +31bps for the day and in the process of getting 100% long.

Not only did China cut rates by 50bps last night but they also announced a $114b stimulus program to help buoy both the property markets and stocks. The details of the stock program aren’t exactly clear but we do understand that making money in Chinese stocks has been nonexistent for about a decade.

As a result, China and Hong Kong was up more than 4%, most since 2020.

Bottom line analysis: any stimulus out of China is bullish for materials and oil. We are in a monetary expansion phase and should expect more of this from many countries, which ultimately is bullish for stocks.

I’m here with Mom, presiding over a mostly cash portfolio but long some $PEG, $TNA and $TQQQ. The impetus to buy $PEG lies with the concept of making private deals, such as the recent deal between $CEG and $ORCL.

This opportunity is unique to $CEG and partly $PEG because of regulatory concerns that tie utilities to serve their customers. Because $CEG is private they are able to sell their energy to whoever they please. This deal with $ORCL, driven by demand caused by AI, is the impetus for the hottest trade in the market now: nuclear energy.

But since I’m on vacation and not tethered to a screen, I am not positioning in any large amount of individual stocks, opting for a more macro approach.

I’ll be back in the saddle next week.

I’m very bullish but I’m away on vacation so I cannot be bothered with the daily fluctuations of the stock exchange, so I moved to cash. I gained +72bps for the session, in a moderately strong tape. Gains are abundant in commodities, but not bonds. Many of you FOOLS went long treasuries ahead of the Fed, thinking you knew something. You actually know nothing and your actions communicate that.

Going to cash is only temporary and I’ll most likely get back in at a smaller scale before the session ends.

After driving for 9 hrs I arrived at my good friend’s house and immediately went to a German beer hall to knock off a few steins before grabbing a bite. Being in the south since 2019, I forgot how obsessed NYers are with paver walkways and paver driveways and masonry projects. Even on the smallest home, there is ornate paver driveways and I can’t help but to think ROI when I see them.

The plan is to remain here for about a week and then head back to NC, which means I’ll be trading remotely from an iPad and phone next week. I don’t feel disadvantaged, as markets have broken out and should continue to rip higher.

More later