Here’s How I Identify Rotation Using Exodus

I found a nest of stinger bees in my laundry room, which is ironical unto itself. Having been stung by 2 bees this summer, I was a little hesitant to take this on — but I did so nonetheless. It was sort of like my bike ride last night and the giant warning about entering the park without orange attire, since it is designated for ‘deer management’ — festooned by hunterFAGS prancing around in military attire in search of sport. I thought about it for a moment and then rolled right in with my brown garments and deer antlers nonetheless.

Back to the matter of the bees, I got in there and vacuumed them all up — maybe 50 in total, maybe more. It wasn’t hard, or dangerous. Instead, it was actually quite fun.

Let me show you a tool I’ve been using in Exodus lately, juxtaposing the annual Sharpe scores vs the weekly. Think of these scores as technical indicators stretched over different timeframes. This screen I am about to show you displays annual Sharpe’s that are low and weekly one’s that are strong — perhaps producing stocks in the midst of rotation from out of favor to in.

And here is the tech sector isolated, same screen.

Why is this relevant?

Because advisors who do not produce high Sharpe ratios in their management get whipped and beaten within an inch of their life. Whether they know it or not, they’ll be forced to buy any stock with a high Sharpe, if they intend to keep their clients, who now obsess and demand to know Sharpe scores on a monthly basis.

At the end of the day, we’re all trying to front run one another — jump in front of the line and smack one another in the face with cream pies.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Last night I had a rueful rest, all due to those Chinese IPO trades gone wrong. I had a dream that I was being chased by dragons, spitting fire at me as I frantically tried to slink down and into a sewer pipe. Just when I thought I had escaped its wrath, peering out of the small tubular sewer drain that I was hiding in — the stupid face of the dragon appeared and incinerated me — and then I woke up.

I’ve been angry about that dream all day — mainly because I try to be brave and true during all moments of my life. The cowardice I exhibited in my dream must be some sort of message to me, perhaps I am mocking myself for cowering in fear by selling QTT. Or perhaps it means nothing at all.

Back to an important subject, such as what to buy during the Autumn — a wonderful and blissful time of year. It is, mind you, my favorite season, the harvest — the moments of the year when orange and brown festoon the countryside with the colors of metamorphosis.

Jeffrey Macke enjoys to discuss retail on Twitter and has since declared himself in charge of all things to do with consumer trends. He fancies himself an expert amongst idiots — traveling to and fro, snapping pictures of display racks and drawing delightful pictures with annotations atop of Yahoo Finance 10q print-outs. I am here to tell you that I will challenge him this fall for leader of retail — as I am a man of extreme style and panache — who has a keen eye for all things to do with high end and retarded end fashion. Having the advantage of cavorting amidst both classes, I consider myself to be a foremost expert in knowing what people want. I am the weathervane of Wall Street and that’s all there is to it.

Courtesy of Exodus, here are some things that have me interested in this trade.

The overbought-oversold oscillator is at the lows, an implication that the apparel stores are in fact stressed to the downside.

Retail stocks have recoiled to the tune of 8% the past two weeks.

From a seasonal perspective, September is a bag of dicks for apparel. This is typically a good time to barrel into high end fashion.

And here are the only high growth companies in the sector. Ignore everything Mr. Jeffrey Macke says and only focus on these merchants of Chinese manufactured textiles.

It’s hard to say, truth be told, if Le Fly will actually transmorph into a retailFAG, eschewing the wonders of SAAS. But in my head, at this moment, it seems like a nice windy narrative to travel down — the type of story you might tell your grandkids 30 years from now — when the Captain of Bloggeries, the best trader alive, decided it was time to pivot away from SAAS and into Apparel and killed it in the process. These stories would normally get lost in time, so make sure to maintain journals and keep them tucked away in the attic for some antiqueFAG to recover 100 years hence. Our stories will live forever.

I came, I tried, I failed.

I sold the whole position for a loss of 9.6%, triple sized 15% position means I enjoyed a fairly large drawdown for the day. The hurtful thing about this trade, obviously, is that I lost money in a manner unnecessary. I didn’t sell into strength and I bought into weakness. Hence, today I am a gigantic mammoth fucking loser.

I am keeping the QTT position and the NIO cash will stay in a money market.

You don’t understand, this trade just ruined my weekend. I was already in a pretty dour mood — feeling like an odious stock trading gorilla. Now with this loss, I am a confirmed ape tucked away in a dark corner of stupid, somewhere in central NJ — where the people are misfitted and the tree are old and bleak.

Top picks: CGC, UBNT and the opposite of whatever I’m thinking about now.

UPDATE: QTT gapped the fuck lower. Sold it too for an 11% L.

UGHHhhhhhhh.

I tripled down in NIO and now my basis is $11.06.

I also couldn’t resist and bought QTT — basis of $16.

I am just about cashless now and involved with several high octane trades that I have no business in right now. Life is good, so I’m trying to ruin it for myself.

I mucked up this NIO trade 10 ways till Sunday. First, I should’ve sold it in the after-hours last night; but I was busy at the fucking mall buying textiles. Then the stock cratered and I doubled down, and once again failed to sell it when it spiked +10% from my basis. Now the stock is off by 10% and I’m contemplating holding it over the long hard and cold weekend.

Second, I knew QTT would lift off. The stock shot out of the gates and was trading ~12, but I didn’t buy any because I was fully invested and also because I had too much shit on the books, namely NIO.

So here I am now, holding my dick in hands — looking at my past 9 booked trades and feel dreadful about it.

Here’s the rundown.

CLF +10.1%
GWRE +2.5%
K +2.7%
CLX +1.7%
SPOT +3.1%
QUOT +3.2%
AYX +2.97% (double sized)
VRTU +3.7%

They’re mostly small gains over short holding periods. I now have 10% cash and a portfolio filled with excess risk.

Meanwhile, my quant portfolio, which comprises of 75% of my investable dollars, is higher by 77bps — stress free and with a dignified air.

Here are the top rated stocks in Exodus. To access our grading system — go to FreeStockAlgos.com or take a 7 day free trial.

How am I supposed to respond to this, seeing the same news for the 10th week in a row?

Yes, we know Trump wants tariffs on Chinese goods. We know he will likely use the money gained from the tariffs for some pet project of his, such as paying off the debt. That being said, it’s Friday and no one really cares. We’re all exhausted by the drama and have become immune to minor dips.

President Donald Trump wants tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods despite the U.S.’s attempt to restart talks on trade, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

The president told aides to go ahead with tariffs, Bloomberg reported, citing four people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. and China have already put in place tariffs on $50 billion of each other’s imports since July as tensions escalated despite several rounds of talks. Trump has criticized China’s record trade surplus with the U.S. and openly questioned whether it was manipulating its currency.

My NIO trade has stalled, in favor of a new Chinese IPO — QTT. Albeit tempting, I’m holding off buying into QTT while juggling several flaming jars of clay.

I was going to either sell it or double down, so I decided to buy more. The notion of buying this is painful, especially since it was down 20% today. But, this sort of action has preceded many a rallies. Once the sellers get flushed the fuck out and the weak hands have been executed, the stock can run in the wind, naked, cock out — strong.

My basis is $11.40. Should I end up with a mammoth victory here, I will once again declare myself to be the greatest trader alive.

Not to make excuses or anything, but I did make a really great French omelette, not color but yellow through and through. I come back to the desk, 10 minutes into trading, and behold a harrowing decline in NIO — which is now halted due to retardation.

The stock had been up 15% pre-market, now fucked.

I’ll end up taking an L on this and also walk away with a lesson, which is — NEVER make yourself breakfast at the market open while holding volatile piece of shit Chinese burritos.

I was tempted to say 1999, but that shit was ridiculous. Plus, I think there should be a statute of limitations on talking about tapes and discussing another more than 10 years ago. I recently found myself talking to someone about the market and my time during the dot com era, this was after I wrote my two stories on the subject, and immediately felt embarrassed for talking about something so long ago. This is the reason why I haven’t penned a part 3 — too long ago. If I’m gonna write anything, I want to include the present day — perhaps give you absolute fuckers insight into life as a 42 year old blogger with a serious God complex.

Markets are gently higher in the pre-market and I hate to toot my horn over YI and NIO — but there is nothing you can do to stop them. NIO is the next TSLA — Chinese edition. And YI is some bullshit company that no one has ever heard of — but that shouldn’t stop the stock from barreling higher.

I use the word “barrel” a lot these days and I’ve also purposely dumbed down my prose in order to better communicate with rusticate road slobs. There’s no reason for me to use ‘fancy’ words and make any of you feel illiterate. I could, mind you, if I wanted to — but I won’t.

Strong advice for you home gamers out there wasting away — learn how to cook. And I don’t mean BBQing some burgers or a steak. Learn the processes and get at least 5 good recipes under your belts. This way, if you ever invite people to the house, you can feed them something other than pizza.

I’ll be taking some profits today and I’ll also be making some coffee and maybe even some food.

Back in a bit.

Okay, I’m really on a roll now — beginning a new winning streak, 5 for my last 5. I had a 38 for 39 streak, 28 for 30, and now I’m gunning for 1,000 for 1,000 — to prove, once and for all, that I literally cannot be stopped.

I kicked out of SPOT for a 3% gain. With the proceeds I bought the following two Chinese IPOs.

NIO

YI

I bought NIO at $11.66, already up 70% for the day, not giving a fuck.

CHART SCHOOL: Here $NIO is exhibiting a 'clean breakout' above former resistance level on strong volume. There is literally nothing in its way of higher prices. The company stock has never been down. pic.twitter.com/ejwIbMbqsn

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 13, 2018

YI is unch, and I bought her at $14.19.

Best case scenario, both stocks open +100% tomorrow and I sell them and rejoice over a can of evaporated milk.