Bears Are Gonna Get Curb Stomped Tomorrow

This was a classic bear trap day. They threw out some divergences, made some shit go lower, made some other shit that wasn’t supposed to go lower go higher — and BAM! a fresh crop of bearish fucktards were born.

I’m thoroughly convinced that this part of the simulation is based purely on random fun. Some Wizard of Oz character behind the curtain at Goldman fucking with prices just to ensnare some people and ruin them for sport. It’s easy to get caught up in your own shit and think ‘oh, shit, I was put on this earth because I am special and all I have to do is work real hard and I’ll get rich too.’

WRONG. Take it from someone who’s made and lost fortunes — it doesn’t work that way. If you’re reading this trying to figure out the tape — you’re a scrap guy — someone trying to eat scraps and crumbs, trying to make it. The fastest way to not make it is to think you’re better than everyone else. The easiest way to make it is spending less, saving more, and investing for the long haul. Sounds easy — right? Try getting married, having kids, and getting lured into big ass homes and cars. Next thing you know your burn rate is thru the roof and you’re scratching your balls wondering how you just blew a million dollars on groceries the past decade.

I can teach you this shit for free — but you have to show an interest. By free, I mean $59 per mo with an Exodus subscription. The fuck you think makes the site run — dirt and good will?

iBankCoin is a fucking institution. I started this place with a bunch of people and I’m the only one left. Everyone left me but you — the unwashed reader. I don’t get along with people and it’s better this way.

If you want to learn a little bit about my past fortunes made and lost — I wrote about it so cop the books. Trust me, I can write screenplays out of all the shit I’ve seen. I’m on page 350 of 700 of a new book I’m writing now about the 2008 financial crisis — showcasing my blogs here and the comments section. You might not realize it now, but the shit we’ve done here, you and I both, is important. We’re documenting these events in real time — giving live reactions to the shit out there. I realize the comments section isn’t active here anymore — but that’s because everyone is talking in Exodus. Before we had an active chat room in Exodus — people would comment more on the free site. (I’m not fucking linking to the premium service each time. It auto links programmatically).

Fuck, I forgot what this blog was supposed to be about.

I bought two stocks into the bell. My gut feeling is markets will crash HIGHER tomorrow — fucking all of you Zerohedgers into never-ending glory holes.

After closing out most of my losers, I’ve done nothing but shit post inside the Pelican Room and make myself eggs. The breadth is bad. The action in gold and bonds — horrible. Bitcoin — trash. This whole set up is horrendous.

So how come I’m not shorting here?

Good question.

Maybe it’s because I don’t like being beaten to a bloody pulp by shorting stocks into faux weakness. That’s right — this smells like a set up, a trap. Inside of dicking around with intra-day shenanigans, I’ll likely just opt for an end of day buying spree.

Don’t you get it? This is how they get you — throwing out mixed signals in an attempt to lure you back in. Don’t fall for that shit.

Since I no longer post my picks on the free site (sorry about that), I’ll let you know later on if I had the balls to step up and take a swing at this again — without getting into specifics.

Great fucking day for everyone but me. I woke up to a nightmare on several trading fronts. I’ll summarize this clusterfuck with my pnl for some closed out car accidents.

(MARA -17%)
(RIOT -9.5%)
(MGI -10%)
(REAL -13%)

BOOM and BAM! That’s what you call a wooden baseball bat to the head. I’m only fortunate it wasn’t an aluminum bat. How lucky of me.

This didn’t all roll lower today to that degree, but plunged below my stops and here I am licking my wounds like a god damned idiot. I should’ve known this was going to happen, seeing that I was just bragging like a motherfucker last week about how invincible I was — up 33 on my last 40 trades. Well, chalk up another 4 losers. I sold them because why the fuck not? I’m not going to hold onto losers and I might as well close them out in the beginning of the month in order to give myself a clean slate.

I’m too afraid to buy now, so I’ll likely place a trade or two near the close.

Today is the day I make changes to the Quant, which is a monthly occurrence, but also change the Bubble Basket and the GARP portfolio. The Bubble Basket is a managed portfolio of the most overvalued stocks in America — broken down cleanly by my methods and diversified amongst all sectors. They’re supposed to be dangerous stocks — but they tend to do best in bull markets.

YTD the Bubble Basket is +41%

The GAPR is the Quant, but only the value aspect of it. No hedges or protection — just alpha.

YTD the GAPR is +23%.

My Quant was switched around today and plenty of changes were made. I sold my bonds and doubled up on gold and we’re 100% in value stocks now. Bear in mind, this is totally a mechanical process, so none of my real time opinions here are relevant.

Last month the Quant rose by another 3.5%.

Here are the returns YTD — by month.

Jan: +6.6%
Feb: +7.2%
March: +2.6%
April: -0.2%
May: +0.6%
June: +3.5%

Granted, it has been a very easy year to make money in the market. But the Quant keeps me honest and regimented. I feel a certain sense of normalcy by keeping it going, knowing the methods have been tried and tested and they work. The stated goal here, naturally, is to beat the SPY. But the bigger plan here is to find a repeatable process from which I can package and deliver to my kids and say “you want to know how to invest your money? Here you go.”

A best ideas approach is too esoteric and entails an artistic approach that is not repeatable. Indexing is fucking boring. In my opinion, this is the only way to structure a long term portfolio and feel confident that you’re actually working towards something meaningful.

I have a meeting now. If you have any questions, Exodus member of not, feel free to fire away in the comments.

I did warn you about something milling in the bushes ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Not only that, Trump met with the retard from N. Korea — who is essentially a proxy for China. All of this means for higher stock prices and the complete and total decapitation of the shorts.

The shorts will be killed on the opening tick during tomorrows trade.

Trump said the meeting went as well as it could have, noting: “We are right back on track.” Chinese state-run news outlet Xinhua said the two leaders agreed to “to restart trade consultations between their countries on the basis of equality and mutual respect.”

Trump added the U.S. will ease restrictions on American companies from selling products to Huawei, a giant telecommunications company from China. The U.S. barred companies from selling to Huawei in May, citing national security concerns. The U.S. president also said China would “buy farm product.”

Reversing the Huawei ban could boost chipmaker shares like Skyworks Solutions, Qorvo and Micron Technology, all of which have revenue exposure to Huawei. Skyworks and Micron were both down at least 10% for 2019 through Friday’s close. Qorvo was down 16.9% year to date.

Investors anxiously awaited the meeting between Trump and Xi as they looked for clues on whether the world’s largest economies would resume trade negotiations or if the conflict would be prolonged.

You’d be dumb to bet against this sojourn into depravity. I believe June was the best June since 1938. How can you short stocks when all there is is upside surprises?

That being said, gold is getting hammered too — down 1%. This is reflation 101 and the top performing stocks will be tech, biotech and new IPOs. Got it? Tech, biotech, and new ipos. This means you flip the script on all of that shit you bought two weeks ago, get aggressive, and trust in the future of SAAS again — you fucking faggots.

Having a reliable platform is the most important first step in trading. The tools given to most, and I mean most, professional full priced brokerage firms are complete shit. I used to work at a big bank in NYC and their platform was a fucking joke. When I went indy and had my own shoppe, the clearing agent providing the OSJ will laughable tech. I was embarrassed to show clients the shit I was working with.

Now that I’m like you, an unwashed independent trader, I try them all. I happen to like Motif Investment (I don’t make any money from this fucking plug), but others like TD, Schwaab or Trade. Some homeless men I know trade from Robinhood. The millennials like Robinhood too — what a fucking farce.

How is the platform — be honest? I have no idea.

Some of my friends “trade” at Goldman Sachs. Those guys can fuck themselves.

Most professionals I know also pair a data platform with their trading, using Reuters, Bloomberg, or Factset.

There’s a shit load of stuff out there and I’d be interested in hearing about some website or service that’s under the radar that helps you trade too.

I’ll be out tomorrow during the day, escaping the house due to my aggressive attempts to sell the damned place, and I’m also heading to the beach. So I’ll let this post simmer a while.

We had an electrifying end to 2018 and it was supposed to be fire and brimstone for all of 2019. But somehow, someway, we’ve managed to kill volatility and sashay (no homo) to new record highs.

Exodus specializes in mean reversion algorithms and is aways testing the market’s stress points to find pivot points. For our principle algorithm, we had just two oversold signals for the first half of 2019, and here they are.

SPY rose 5.1% 10 days following OS on 5/31

SPY rose 3.2% 10 days following OS on 3/22

I’d say the time machine is back and running at full capacity — plutonium in the engine and the good Dr. at the wheel crushing shit in the Pelican Room. It has been a good start to 2019. I’ll have a full update on my Quant performance on Monday.

I’m 33 for my last 40 booked trades inside Exodus. For you home gamers out there — that’s an 82% win rate. Feel free to compete, if you choose to go down that rocky road. On the matter of transparency, all of these trades are given in real time, emailed and texted out. Many of these trades are overnighters — something I’ve been toying with the past 2 weeks.

I’ll go cold soon enough. But these type of streaks come natural to me. I can show you my exact process as to how I found them and why I bought them. Or you can simply feed of Father Fly’s generosity, parasitically, inside of the Pelican Room.

DRIP +28%
ROKU +2.5%
TVIX +5.7%
TZA +2%
FAZ +6%
TQQQ +4.5%
NUGT +21%
ROKU +6.4%
(DUST -2.9%)
AYX +5.4%
ZM +8.5%
PINS +9.5%
(PAGS -0.5%)
(SFIX -3.5%)
FAS +0.3%
(BE -3.1%)
LK +8.1%
CRWD +7.2%
SOLY +7.9%
NUGT +8.3%
SAIL +5.9%
(CHWY -5.4%)
ZS +2.4%
UPWK +2.6%
(GO -5%)
DLTR +4.8%
ETR +3%
ED +2%
KMB +1.1%
DLR +4.3%
(TIGR -10.7%)
BILI +2.7%
GROW +7%
(SOXS -10.3%)
OSTK +`18.3%
IQ +6.5%
AU +10.5%
NGD +17%
BLL +4.3%
CRWD +3.4%

Either way, my winship and Captainhood is not up for debate.

GOOD DAY.

I sold AU yesterday for a 10% win and NGD today for a +17% win. I have one gold miner left and will likely hold it until my ears fall off. While I’m bullish on gold, the metal seems to be stalling here — appearing to be both fat and lazy and greasy. I do not have an interest in a slothful gold trade, something that has ruined traders for the past 7 years.

So I am stepping off, once again supreme in my trading and dominant in my thesis.

I will revisit this trade when it gains steam.

Once upon a time, Donald John Trump wrote a book dubbed “The Art of the Deal.” I read this book 3 years ago to see what he was all about. In the book, he discusses various ways and methods he’d rip people off — take skyscrapers from people for nothing with zero down payments. He’d even have some sellers pay him to take their real estate. It was truly brilliant, if you’re into that sort of devilish maniacal stuff. If you read the book like I did and analyzed Trump’s personality, you’d know he really doesn’t care too much about other people, as he’s always bobbing and weaving in an endless negotiation towards personal aggrandizement.

While you might not want this sordid type of person as your friend, you’d certainly want him on your side to negotiate a deal.

Well, the G20 meeting is now and President Xi is brining a proposal for Trump.

Can he strike an accord?

U.S. President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping will meet Saturday at the G-20 summit to talk trade.

A White House official told CNBC that it might not take much to at least reach a truce in the tit-for-tat trade war.

Trump is closely watching the stock market for reaction to the various developments, the official said.

Given the context of this moment, democrats all talking shit during debates, false claiming everything is horrible under Trump, wouldn’t be the perfect time to negotiate a deal with China and end the trade war — sending stocks flying?

I think so, even though I personally can’t see how it happens.

Nonetheless, you’d have to be fucking mad to be short thru the weekend.

The Stock Market went up massively from the day after I won the Election, all the way up to the day that I took office, because of the enthusiasm for the fact that I was going to be President. That big Stock Market increase must be credited to me. If Hillary won – a Big Crash!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 28, 2019

NEW TRADE WAR FRONT ALERT: INDIA

I look forward to speaking with Prime Minister Modi about the fact that India, for years having put very high Tariffs against the United States, just recently increased the Tariffs even further. This is unacceptable and the Tariffs must be withdrawn!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 27, 2019