Analyst Day For $WDAY Ruins SAAS Sector

Last night WDAY offered guidance during their analyst day and people fucking hated it. The subsequent result has been bloodshed this morning, as people shimmy the fuck out of high valuation software name and into retail shit-houses like PIR and BBBY.

BMO came away from WDAY Rising with neutral incremental views. They remain positive on WDAY opportunities in financial solutions, though they believe that a gradual slowdown in HCM could limit consolidated growth, particularly given the relative size differential, with HCM being about 81% of subscription revenues. They believe that management signaled that M&A could play a meaningful role to generate new revenue/market opportunities. They think valuation is reasonable though not inexpensive given growth metrics; Market Perform, $225 tgt.

Without question, high valuation names have been adversely affected by the We Work IPO debacle. There is now a disconnect between private valuations and public. As such, the sectors with the highest valuations, namely SAAS, have been sold. This of course is also the case due to a slowing economy. But I am not sold on this idea entirely, since software creates high productivity and also opportunities for cost savings. Nevertheless, this is where we are now. As such, I sold out of my SAAS names today.

The sector is off sharply, nearly 3% for the session.

The best sector in the market continues to be residential construction, an obvious winner with rates sinking and the price of real estate near record highs.

Here are the top industries ranked by Sharpe ratios now.

Tough tape for tech and healthcare. If you’re managing accounts now and don’t know where to go, go to cash. If you must be invested, try diversifying you fucking brainlet. We’re in a rate sensitive environ, so gain exposure to industries that offer yield, such as the one’s on the list above.

Fuck Syria. Fuck impeachment. Fuck your opinions on anything at all. I care about my fellow man, but not his opinions. I discussed getting right for trading this morning, and most of that is mental health. We live in a world of depression and fucking nut jobs. Do not fall into the thick amber of narratives, beholden to a group of people. I mean this in more than just the political sense. I am not a republican or a democrat. I do not have blanket opinions on anything and I am open to change, since it is the essence of the evolutionary spirit. I am a cynic, calling into question everything that is told to me — and for good reason.

How does this make you feel? https://t.co/FlBcOIz0t4

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 15, 2019

Some of you might get downtrodden after learning you’ve been lied to your entire life. Everything you thought was sacred was expendable and everything meaningless invaluable. But once you can fully extricate yourself from the rat race and truly live without fear of rebuke — you will be free. With this freedom, you can be happy enough to thrive.

What good is your success if you’re living a life tethered to the beliefs of others?

That said, markets have broken backs to the upside, in spite of the news and all of the horrible things that were supposed to happen. It’s as if the trick was laid bare on purpose.

I booked a gain in AAPL. I had purchased it about a week ago and took a 4% profit and ran. With today’s melt up, one would think fucking Apple would be up — but no.

On the issue of gold, we have a situation on our hands here. I am the single best gold trader in the world, believe me. Ask around. I’ve been buying NUGT since $13. All of that shit is in danger of ending here, as the insect metal breaches $1,500 with some alacrity. The issue here are rates. We need some deflationary pressure to scare folks back into gold. With QE in play and markets jogging higher, there is little to no reason for owning gold. As a point in fact, I’d probe with short positions if these levels didn’t recover.

Lots of people want to get into this game and go about it all wrong. First, you can’t trade well if you feel bad. The world is a suffocating place with opinions flying left and right, mostly by ideologues who annoy the fuck out of you. Go to the gym and lift weights. If you’re over 40, don’t lift heavy, bro. That ship has sailed. But you need to get the endorphins flowing and tighten up those fucking abs.

If you’re going to lift, you’ll need to cut too, meaning tracking your calories and reducing carbs, otherwise you’ll be lifting for no god damned reason at all. If you’re cutting calories and setting a goal to reduce body weight — you need to eat the right foods — chicken breast over chopped meat, salmon over tilapia. Throw a fucking green in there for Christ’s sake.

Slow morning? Do 50 pushups and 100 crunches. No matter where you are in life, exercising will make it better.

Drown out the negatives.

People around you piss you off? Put on some headphones and listen to music. Hate what you’re fuckhead friends are saying on Facebook? Fuck Facebook.

What’s your stated goal here? My guess is to make some money to be independent, to build something meaningful. The money you make in your lifetime should be passed down to future generations or perhaps you could create a foundation or charity in your name. Why not? Leave a mark on this god forsaken planet. But you can’t get there, you cannot get to do any of those things if you’re trading or investing poorly. Attaining the skills to do it is another topic, but the easy stuff, feeling good of mind and body, is something everyone can do. Sure, we’re all melancholy from time to time and it’s easy to walk the black dog and feel sorry for yourself. Some people even say dumb shit like ‘in my next lifetime I’ll do it right.’ Guess what fucked face, this is it. This is your one shot, so make the best of it.

I know people who got it at 15 and knew exactly what to do. Other people didn’t come into their own until after college. Some people are late bloomers and just started realizing their mistakes after 40. There isn’t a time expiration on success, so quit counting yourselves out.

Now go make yourselves an omelette, some black coffee, and lift something heavy — come back and crush some trades.

Now I’m no conspiracy theorist, even though I’ve been knows to dabble here and there. We all know certain truths that are uncomfy, but true — such as flat earth, fake space, nuclear bombs don’t exist, and the moon isn’t something we’ve ever visited. Aside from that, I’m a mainstream guy.

But if I was a conspiracy theorist, I’d say Trump is playing RIGHT INTO THE FUCKING HANDS OF PUTIN, who they tell me is my arch enemy, even though I am unsure why that is. Based upon all of the CIA stuff I’ve read, Russia is really out to get me. Question is, are they out to get me or them? If it’s just them, the CIA, should I care? As an American, does the CIA work for my best interests?

Having said that, Trump pulled out of Syria and created a power vacuum. This has led to an immediate mobilization of Assad forces to the south barreling towards Turkish forces in the north. Now Trump just announced sanctions on Turkey, menacing to “destroy” their economy.

“I am fully prepared to swiftly destroy Turkey’s economy if Turkish leaders continue down this dangerous and destructive path.”

Obviously, this isn’t a way to treat a fellow NATO member.

Wait, there’s more!

Trump on Turkey sanctions: "steel tariffs will be increased back up to 50 percent, the level prior to reduction in May. The United States will also immediately stop negotiations with respect to a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2019

And this!

Over the weekend, State and Energy Dept officials were quietly reviewing plans for evacuating 50 nuclear weapons that the US had long stored, under American control, at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey… Wow. https://t.co/RBgrAYuU8R by @SangerNYT

— Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) October 14, 2019

Enjoy the show.

In separate news, ABC News got caught shilling like a motherfuckers today; hence the term ‘fake news’ applies.

FAKE NEWS: ABC ‘slaughter in Syria’ footage is actually from a Kentucky gun range; the network has since taken down the video & says they ‘regret the error’

pic.twitter.com/sH8ymzTvFA

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) October 14, 2019

I know the market is a little dicey, news flow a little fucked up and small caps suck. But like any good religion, you need faith to believe in this shit. The fact you’re still here reading means you’re looking for someone to tell you what you want to hear. You don’t need some bear-fucker professing end of world scenarios. You want to know that someone out there is in the open seas fishing for whales, not for the oils, but to eat said whales. I am such a man.

Markets should be sharply lower, but they aren’t. Rates are not going higher, in spite of what all of the morons suggest. The economy, aside from manufacturing, is fine. The homies are blasting higher and Apple is near record highs. Ergo, I sense without a doubt — we are going to barrel higher.

I put some more money to work today.

Update on Champagne pouring: