Tomorrow Will Be a DiSAASter

It’s over for you software nerds. The era of the cloud had ended, bringing forth a new era of gothic disobedience to technology and reintroduction of the horse and carriage.

NOW spiraled lower in the after hours, bringing pain to the entire sector. Bear in mind, this is an industry that was pistol hot for a decade, only interrupted 3 times with routs of 20% or more since 2013 — and now we’re on the verge of -30% in some key names the past 3 months.

In Exodus we have a predictive oscillator that measures the pain in this trade and we’re almost at a level where it’s interesting. It’s easy to give up on an idea when it sports a Freddy Krueger or Nixon mask. This is when the men are made and the transgenders cast away on some sordid chemical castration sojourn.

Two things to watch tomorrow.

Pin action in NOW, CRWD, ZS, ZEN and HUBS.

Also, take a close view of bonds yields. Should yields sink again, you’re gonna want to buy gold.

On the long side, I have been buying an array of biotechs, caught a massive runner in the past hour of trade today with BNTX — long from $18.20, currently trading above $21.

This is what I do lads, day in and day out. Do not ask me how I find said fish, simply sit back and enjoy them.

“Seasonality is a gimmick.”

(smacked in the fucking mouth with an odd occurrence)

Seasonal trends for gold sector

Over the past two weeks gold stocks are down 5%. This plays very closely to the seasonal trends in gold, with the month of October being, by far, the worst month of the year for the insect metal. I’m not buying gold here, but will be tempted soon.

I recently has a period of disturbance aboard the SS Pelican. All of that is at an end now. I just booked a double sized position day trade win with TROV. My original purchase landed me in the red almost immediately, so I re-doubled my efforts and used by balls and voila — here I am a victorious man.

I just sold for a 9.9% gain.

Here are my last 10 trades.

TJX +2.4%
SGEN +17%
(PIR -15%)
NAV +8.9%
(NET -13.5%)
STMP +19%
ARWR +6.4%
GME +5.1%
TROV +9.9%
TROV +9.9%

Clearly, I’m no longer fucking around and mean business. I might cast another line into the ocean and take an overnight fish, or maybe not. Depends on the mood.

Off to do something incredibly leisurely.

This is my day, so far.

STMP +19%
ARWR +6.4%
GME +5.1%

Now yours?

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

SAAS stocks are still getting their dicks chopped off. The faces of bulls are getting pressed into wood chippers. You cannot simply run out there and buy anything. You’ve got to be more selective. Come on people. Have I taught you anything the past 13 years blogging?

Of course not.

Key tell: CRWD

Let’s digress.

We Work attempts to come public at $47 billion. Corrupt investment banks tell them to fuck off, probably because their in house counsel warned them about some obvious fraud of scam. We Work keeps fishing for suckers in their IPO dreams, only to be cast aside as fucking idiots morons. Valuation plummets from $47 billion to under $10 billion in less than a month, revealing what the in house counsel at JP Morgan knew all along.

Softbank freaks out because We Work needed to IPO in order to keep the shell game going. They have two options: fire thousands of workers and let We Work go bust, or bail them out in the hopes of righting the ship and an eventual IPO.

They chose the latter.

As part of the $8 billion deal to take control of We Work, Founder and CEO Adam Neumann will get bought out for $1.7b and sever ties with the company.

You’ve got to love capitalism, rewarding failure with billions.

Part of the charm of Exodus is that I do not require anyone to know anything about stocks. Unlike other gurus who placate the mobs with idle promises of education and wealth, Le Fly only asks that you know how yo eat. Knowing that trading well is just as a genetic trait as running very fast, Le Fly does not give false pretenses and needless hope to an otherwise slow set. On the high seas in a pirate vessel outfitted for whale hunting, Le Fly brings his members back the freshest of fish and shoves it right into their mouths on a daily basis — to provide sustenance to a hungry hungry crowd.

I give you STAMP, +30% in the pre-market — today’s FRESH FISH on the pirate vessel S.S. Pelican.

If I’m only as good as my last trade, how am I doing now?

Yes, I’m obsessing over this sector. Fuck off and leave me alone. There are a thousand other sectors to buy (maybe not that many, but fuck off) — but this is the most important. The cloud humpers are where the VC fuckers are positioned and the entire mood of the market relies on the daily fluctuations of CRM.

Over the past 3 months, this sector has been ravaged. I blame the We Work catastrophe. But here are a few names for you to watch, canaries in coal mines if you will.

ZS
CRWD
ZEN
HUBS
WDAY

Three month returns on those stocks range from -27% to -50%. People who are long in size aren’t men anymore. Women who are long those stocks are now thinking about finding a rich man and becoming a house wife. There isn’t any mercy on Wall Street. I just booked a 13.5% loss in NET because of this hatred for cloud stocks. The whole world has gone crazy and I’m sure we’ll all reflect back on these dark days with comedic relief. We will be fat and rich and eating rare steaks, pushing plumes of cigar smoke into the ceiling tiles, thinking “boy what a stupid cunt that person was for selling out of those SAAS stocks in October of 2019.”

The short answer is No!

Those fucking bastards have been lit up the past three months. So many weak hands got cut off and the ones who are still long are either insane or on the verge of spilling over. Just one more tip and half the shareholder bases are gonna vomit it all up. I’d be much happier buying into the sector after a severe flush, the type of crash that would make one think the devil himself was behind the pin action.

Can the market trade higher in spite of SAAS?

It can do whatever the fuck it wants to do. One thing is for certain and this goes without saying, the SAAS business model is easily the best in tech. I just don’t want to get caught naked out there with all of them towels snapping around.

Today I sold SGEN for a 17% gain, PIR for a 15% loss, and NAV for a 8.9% gain.

As you can see, I’m not fucking around here.

Enough of the bullshit. Rates are climbing because optimism and fuck the Fed. Rates are climbing, so you need to steer clear of defensive stocks and gold. Rates are climbing you fucking faggots. Rates are climbing.

Happy Monday to all of you out there, alcoholics and vegans alike. We’ve got ourselves a nice rally on our hands and nothing can stop it. What you need to do is quit trying to time markets and just get in. Fuck your watchlists — you need exposure ASAP. The holidays are just around the bend and next thing you know — BAM! — Thanksgiving brings forth the Turkey Gods to pour some thick gravy down your gullets. You cannot possibly think it makes sense to short American into Pecan Pie — do you?

That’s what I thought.

I got a runner today, SGEN, purchased on Friday. Consider this my “fuck you” and Monday morning “hello” trade.

I used to purposely get to work late in the early 2000’s, because the opening bedlam caused me to make poor decisions — reacting to momentum oriented moves that lured in my inner-gambler. At my core, I chase what is trending. Because of this trait, when something is popping off, I am generally early to that move and often catch large percentage gain winners. This of course works against me in spades during chop, periods when the market is uncooperative and uncertain — such as now.

If you were to only listen to CNBC, Bloomberg and ingest the news flow from CNN, Fox, and MSNBC — you’d declare we were about to enter end of times. It’s a funny thing, pessimism. Some of histories greatest artists had this maudlin viewpoint, almost catastrophic, on humanity, which onto itself is narcissistic. Sure, things are fucked now and the kids all think they’re gay and politicians seem to be more corrupt and brazen now than at any point in history. But that might also be the byproduct of social media and transparency. Money and power are corruptible weapons that can ruin the souls of the best of us. Do not think for a second your preferred politician cannot be marginalized, because they can and will. This game you’re intently interested in now has been taking place since the beginning of government — the ebb and flow between the elites and the masses.

During Roman times, they pitted poor strong men against each other in the gladiator pits. Today they pit all of us against one another on Twitter. It’s fucked up, but it keeps us distracted and the roads paved and the war machine humming.

At times this can become depressing and turn lives upside down, crest-fallen from differences between people about things they cannot control. Think about it, you’re arguing with a person you care about because he or she believes in something that he or she can never affect or change. Totally and utterly useless. This is chaos and it is a foil, the division needed to keep people focused on A instead of the bastard B who’s really up to no good.