The Margin Clerks Are Coming

Following the last two days of POW-PING, those filthy, disgusting margin clerks will be selling shit this afternoon, most definitely. So don’t be surprised to see a little volatility towards the end of the day.

The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] is getting the stuffing kicked out of it, over fears that Cargill (a majority shareholder) is going to blow out of their position, due to nonsensical management. Here is the SEC filing.

Let me tell you, if people are scared of Cargill blowing out of their position, after a 75% decline, they are fucking idiots. Or, if Cargill actually sells MOS, down 75%, they are idiots. Either way, someone is an idiot. With my money, yet again, I will take one final stab at the MOS, sub $30,  for it is on sale.

For the most part, the markets are stable, with noticeable weakness in the banks. Should we close strong today, I would expect a follow through day tomorrow. But I am not betting on it.

One thing to note: our fucking friends from the middle east are panicking, with oil down at these levels. Expect those fuckers to cut production, in a big way, in an effort to jump start the price of crude higher.

If you are 100% long, with no hedges, you are playing with fire. The markets are entirely illogical. You cannot reason with the animal spirits. At a minimum, you should be hedged by 25%, with an addition 10% in cash.

I am 99% sure the market will goose step higher in November. However, before we can enjoy such fascist behavior, we need to finish up October. With the Presidency nearly guaranteed to Obama, Wall Street needs to price in shit, such as higher taxes.

Did you know, during the great depression, taxes went from high 20’s to 70% for rich folk? Perhaps we will get to enjoy such draconian measures, sometime soon. After all, fuck the rich guys; let’s help the homeless.

With my money, I sold 1/4th of my [[SKF]] position, north of $155. I didn’t do anything with the proceeds. It’s sort of just sitting there, doing nothing. Also, I was quite pleased to see National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] crush numbers. In a normal tape, that fucker would be up 25%, right now.

I repeat: I am not selling ANY National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , at these levels. Fuck that.

And, finally, you fuckers need to bring cogent ideas to the comments section. It’s become some sort of mob hangout, where imbeciles run around naked—each trying to “outidiot” one another. I can’t say I am surprised; but for fucks sake, show mercy on the people with IQ’s north of 90.

Finally, I do not trust this market. I think it is imperative that one stay long, with protective shorts. For example, long Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] and short the underlying metal, via [[BOM]] . Into strength, I will continue to add to [[SKF]] , hopefully sub $150, until I am fully hedged.

Foreign markets cratering. Forex markets in flux. Commercial paper in disarray.

Glory awaits America, soon.

Get your short game on tomorrow, and fast.

UPDATE: Just in case you were wondering, “what the fuck is working in this market?,” BEHOLD: “The PPT‘s” top rated stocks, by technicals only. Fuck the fundies, for now. Pardon if takeovers are included. I did not bother to comb over them.

With my brain about to explode, from a soaring blood pressure, this afternoon, I blew out of [[UYG]] , mid 9’s, and went long 30,000 [[SKF]] in the low 140’s. I ate a large percentage loss, selling 3/4ths of my Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] position, making that two coal holes in a row.

Stupidly, I bought more National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , thinking the world was not going to end.

Stupid me, fuckface, the world is going to end.

During my weekly chat with my neighbor Steve, I asked him “how’s the fucking financial crisis treating you”? He replied, “oh, hell Fly, I am getting killed. I sold out of my mutual funds for a 30% loss.”

People like Steve are fucking idiots. But, that’s not the point. The point is: all of these main street chinese food take out lovers are scared shitless. We are in the midst of the biggest run on the financial system ever.

If you have been buried in losses, do not feel as if your trading methods are flawed. The whole fucking system is flawed. There is no way anyone, aside from biased intuition, could predict 25% daily moves in stocks—not even my Godly PPT system, which by the way has been bearish on the overall market, forever. I don’t listen.

My investment philosophy is to be early and right. But, I am very flexible in my strategies, in order to adapt to changing environments, which is why I never give advice in person. I’m always changing my mind and shit, especially over the past year.

So, here is the new game plan:

Hold on to the knifing commodity fuckers, while hedging with egregious bank shorts. On any sign of a bounce, I will deploy the rest of my cash, and use leverage if needed, to get a good average down on those fuckers, with intentions of selling the bounce.

The [[SKF]] or [[SRS]] positions will remain static, until I worm my way out of the commodity mess.

More on this later.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yHgQxfwTFg 450 300]

Enough of being nice to you trailer park idiots. Enough of the white robe, with Greek refreshments and Roman incense. “The Fly” is back in his fucking fox hole, with a full beard, knifing people in the scrotum, who happen to come his way.

I have had my fill of this stupid market, with its never ending crashes, followed up with incessant government intervention.

The whole world is fucked sideways and I’m here trying to catch a dip. Fuck me with a hacksaw!

Fuck Argentina, Iceland, Hungary and whoever else is doomed.

All I know is, I bought [[SKF]] late in the day, and I’m still up 10 points. My commodity plays have been eliminated from existence, in one day. And, my other gay longs, like [[M]] are blowing goats at the local, recently foreclosed on, gas station.

The decadence of yesterday is over. All of the homos who surf the web for information, will get electrocuted by faulty wiring, by the soon to be bankrupt telecom or cable provider.

All of you asshole hedge fund managers deserve to be eaten by hungry jelly fish. If it were up to me, I’d take the whole lot of you and throw you, if I may be so bold, into a large bucket of jelly fish.

In closing, may the world blow up and disintegrate into atoms. There is nothing to like about this tape; you might as well short it all.

NOTE: If any of you assholes say “hey, the Fly capitulated, time to buy,” I will kill you.

Let this be a reminder:

I don’t like you. Actually, ask anyone, I could care less about traffic or other things that measure a blogs success. For a long time, I never linked to anyone, because I don’t read other websites, mainly because they fucking suck. If you fuckers think I am relying on this site, in any shape of form, you are gravely mistaken. As fun as it is, I will shut this fucker down and guest blog on Howards website for the rest of my life, or until Howard dies.

I post my trades, for good or for worse, not to help you, but to entertain. Everyone loves a good train wreck or greatness. As you know, I am the latter. Unfortunately, since the market has cratered, there are many new readers on this site. These people have deformed faces and wreak of pig shit. They leave dumber than normal comments and think, for some reason, that I give a fuck.

Listen up: I don’t.

As for the market:

I will not sell into this commodity rout. However, I did blow out of the banks. I didn’t sell [[UYG]] because I thought it was going significantly lower. It’s simple math.

Should the market feel the need to retest the lows, the banks are going down. Now, my gut says we go higher, so it’s kind of counter-intuitive. But, with the markets this weak, and my gains north of 40% for the year, I had to hedge.

With my remaining cash, I will complete my final round of buys into The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , at lower prices.

I am having my hair lit aflame, by idiots who think the world is ending, and you fuckers think it’s funny?

So the market likes to crash every other day; it’s into that sort of thing. After all, everything is “unprecedented” and entirely “historical.”

Look assholes, buying National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] are ultra contrarian plays. Anyone who thought there was no risk, buying a stock down 70%+ from its highs is a fucking imbecile.

Aside from this wonderful oasis of internet fuckery, “The Fly” has real issues to deal with, such as my fucking head being lit aflame by NOV and MOS, not to mention [[UYG]] .

So, pardon me if I am not able to tell you fuckers to go fuck yourselves in the comments section. Just know, that I would tell you that, after any bullshit comments that you may leave.

Back to my gameplan of chasing shit down rabbit holes:

The action in commodities is as bad as you can get, as you know. They are all hitting new lows and all hope is lost, especially with the underlying commodities tanking.

Holding the fort, at least for today, is clearly idiotic. Although I hate to do it, I may force my hand to reduce risk, via applying my cash position into hedges. It makes sense for me, since I still have big gains. As for you: go eat a sandwich.

UPDATE: I sold out of my entire [[UYG]] position and rolled it into [[SKF]]

Clarification: In order to stop the bleeding and act somewhat responsible, I ate a small loss in UYG and went long [[SKF]] , in size. Also, I have a 25% cash position, ready to deploy by the end of the session. Regardless of what I want to happen or think, this fucker is nose diving, on a global scale. So, it makes sense to keep my destroyed commodities, while getting short a few bad banks. If I am top ticking SKF here, it is acceptable, since my longs will protect the upside. In short, I am late, but not stupid.

The banks get all of the spotlight, because of the systemic repercussions of a failure. However, anyone in the business of investing knows the crumble of commodities has been far more pervasive and damaging to the investor.

The fuckery in the banks was telegraphed, long before the debacle. This commodity nose dive came out of left field, effectively fucking the entire investment community and other unsavory folks too.

Look at the charts of The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] or Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] and you will vomit on top of your keyboard. It’s that hideous.

The only way to compare this popped bubble, in my opinion, is to the dot coms, circa 2000-2003.

Without a doubt: the exponential rally in commodities and commodity shares is over. But that does not mean we can’t have fun, before they enter the stock market cemetery.

Go take a look at Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] , between the years 00-02. Not only will you find a harrowing decline in its shares, you will also find sharp rallies, especially in the months of Oct-December.

So, to sum things up:

I intend to play the bouncing, already popped, bubble, before shorting it to its death. I want to be clear about my intentions, which by no means is one of a gentleman.

I am just trying to play the percentages. And, right now, my “calculator brain” says to get long prior to Halloween, and get ready to blow out near Thanksgiving.

At least the market isn’t dropping like it was being raped, while its hair was aflame. Much to my chagrin, the market is declining like a gentleman, if such a thing exists. I envision some guy, holding the market levers, slowly lowering this fucker over a fine Chardonnay.

Naturally, the shareholders of some of my positions would beg to differ, from such a deranged, yet poignant argument. I, on the other hand, do not believe this decline is “healthy,” like idiots espouse on television boxes. However, I do believe we are in the midst of a process. The market is cleansing itself of weak links, while “gorilla stomping” those who have faith in equities.

It’s quite the conundrum.

Once again, the flight to quality into t-bills is running wild, even after LIBOR and TED spreads have eased. This makes no sense.

The new focus is the economy. Gosh darnit, just when you thought the market was set to trade up, the fucking economy gets in the way.

Here’s the thing:

The economy is going to be weak, for at least another 5-9 months. But, as many of you stock market lovers know, usually, the market bottoms out 6 months prior to an economic recovery. And, if I may be so bold, the markets always outperform during the months of Nov-December.

My plans, as always, is to get long into Thanksgiving, short into Christmas. I am not entirely sure where this market will stabilize. Hence, I have a 27% cash position. But, it will be soon and the buying opportunities will be grand, almost gentleman-like.