Following the last two days of POW-PING, those filthy, disgusting margin clerks will be selling shit this afternoon, most definitely. So don’t be surprised to see a little volatility towards the end of the day.
The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] is getting the stuffing kicked out of it, over fears that Cargill (a majority shareholder) is going to blow out of their position, due to nonsensical management. Here is the SEC filing.
Let me tell you, if people are scared of Cargill blowing out of their position, after a 75% decline, they are fucking idiots. Or, if Cargill actually sells MOS, down 75%, they are idiots. Either way, someone is an idiot. With my money, yet again, I will take one final stab at the MOS, sub $30, for it is on sale.
For the most part, the markets are stable, with noticeable weakness in the banks. Should we close strong today, I would expect a follow through day tomorrow. But I am not betting on it.
One thing to note: our fucking friends from the middle east are panicking, with oil down at these levels. Expect those fuckers to cut production, in a big way, in an effort to jump start the price of crude higher.
If you are 100% long, with no hedges, you are playing with fire. The markets are entirely illogical. You cannot reason with the animal spirits. At a minimum, you should be hedged by 25%, with an addition 10% in cash.
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fire…heh heh…fire… yeah! heh…playing with fire rocks! heh…heh
Freefallin
Buying a little DUG here. Our friends in the middle east will lose either way; if oil goes up, it will heighten the global recession and make them all look like greedy bastards. If oil starts heading down more, well, guess it’s not different this time – oil has always been boom or bust. Oil is getting support today because of the meeting coming up, but afterwards…..???
MOS acting like it wants to go lower. If you have no tolerance, might as well cut the loss.
Regarding your emerging markets comment… should we be scavenging beaten down emerging markets names for a 20-30% pop in November?
As always, gracias
Ur nuts MOS is fucked. Its a god damn penny stock. Its done I’m going with Puts in a big way. RIP MOS.
Sorry Fry .. I had to abandon the MOS ship .. its now every fucking idiot for himself.
Just bought a chunk of SRS and SKF, will add more chunks near market close possibly.
Unfuckingbelievable with MOS.
Rumors of liquidation forcing this puppy lower. I can’t buy with these rumors.
Hey Fly…when you do you CNBC gig…how are you going on….Full Suit and Tie…or are you going to do the open collar thing no sport jacket…these are important things that the PPT buyer might want to know.
DevilDog…your an animal!!
I own a shitpot full of SO and you’ve got me spooked bro! Good time to sell calls I guess.
Mr. EB & charlie, I’m here. Just to restate my position in SDP which I disclosed a couple of days ago. I’ve been accumulating SDP for quite some time now starting in the $50s. Have bought blocks in the 60s, 70s, 80s(again this morning) and 200 shares yesterday at 89.50. I’ve got a total of 9,500 shares. Please keep a watchful eye on it for me. Thanks for the help.
mrkcbill, sorry about that. I’ll sell my SDP at the intermediate S&P low soon.
The fly is losing all credibility to pick stocks.Buy high and sell low.Great job fly.You and Lenard the Monkey should team up.
I’ll place a buy order for MOS @ $1. It will probably get there by Tuesday. Also have buy orders for SSO QLD at $10. There by Tuesday. Those SPY puts I bought are looking good.
Seriously people. This is the end of the markets that we have known. Its like the boy who cried Wolf once too many times. The wolf finally comes and eats him up. That perfect storm is here and is going to destroy everything. Its like a black hole that is sucking everything into it. Stocks have no value if the underlying companies can’t sell anything because people and companies have no money to buy because they have no access to credit because banks don’t want to give them credit because banks have no money because they made foolish bets which have gone to zero. Its this vicious spiral that is destroying everything. Lets just accept it. The end is here. The markets are dead.
Cogent, CAP.
mrcbill, obviously I need SO to roll over since it is the 2nd highest holding in the UTILITY ETF after EXC.
Problem for our Arab brothers is that they have to put their cash into dollars. Stronger dollar = weaker oil.
EXC just under cut it’s morning low. SO hot on it’s heels. SDP payoff coming soon. Hey Mr EB & charlie, where did you guys go?
Like I have mentioned before, the only thing that would make sense right now is if the governments across the world stepped in and shut down the markets for a few weeks or even months and figured out how to resolve the issues at hand. Nothing else will work. And I guarantee you this will happen or markets across the globe will go to zero.
Get your Popcorn ready.
This market is setting up for a capitulation move. At some point in the next several trading days, it is likely the Dow will be down 1000 points intraday with the VIX spiking north of 75.
Get your shopping list together and get ready to bid some crazy lower numbers for the stocks you want.
I also think the oil liquidation trade will end as soon as we get a capitulation in the equity markets. Get long oil and/or natural gas – USO/UNG sub $52 and $25 respectively.
GCI P/E now 2.5…my avg. is now 9.23
DD. Its a fucking legacy stock I’ve had forever…don’t want to deal with taxes and bullshit but don’t want to get nicked either? Is SDP a good hedge?
BTW…the CEO of SO did not inspire me this morning. When those fuckers say the word “challenging” red flag time.
Fuck you crude. This is a clown tape. One cannot be judged by this tape.
I’ve been giving you ingrates gems for two years. The markets crashes every other day and it’s my fault?
With that in mind, how’s my SKF pick at $141?
I’m watching my gains in SKF and SRS grow. Like I said I bought longs at market close yesterday and then went 100% cash at 9:30. I bought a chunk of SRS and SKF not long ago.
Fly is right. Even God couldn’t trade this tape the way Fly has. Even if he loses a little here or there who gives a rats ass.
MOS is assraping me…
FLY –
Do you see the S&P consolidating between 900 – 1000 with lower highs (1000, 980, maybe 960 next) indicating that the next rally sets up the BINARY EVENT of our lifetime.
I think you have to be prepared to strangle a rally to 950-970 with tight stops on your longs and shorts… that will be THE MOTHER OF ALL BINARY EVENTS.
We crash or rally hard there.
SUGGESTION:
On a rally Ryland Homes is a must short…. those guys are lying through their teeth about their land values etc. They’re balance sheet is not as solid as the street thinks!
FYI Scully – (GCI)USA Today will raise cost to a buck on Dec 8th…I can live with that
I got short AAPL at 97.72. So far so good. C’mon 80s!
EOM
Hey crude-oil, go fuck your camel!
Good luck BOOMER. I’m still holding my swing trade AAPL SHORTS @ 103 and 98. Funny that you mentioned $80 because I’ve got a BTC GTC entered at 80.28 last night. I too think the charlie’s angels at 85 will get under cut to the lower BOEH band.
Fly,
Are you shorting anything here or adding to your inverse ETFs?
I dumped SKF yesterday with a great one day gain, but whiffed on picking up any SRS & FXP. Just can’t tell what “overbought and oversold” is anymore.
I dumped all of my MOS and NOV two days ago. Thanks.
SKF in size.
AAPL is my bitch. Fix me a sandwich.
Bull, I will as soon as I get threw with your mother.
mrkcbill, Yes I’d hedge with SDP. Good luck. After the intermediate rally I’d unload SO if I was you. I’m going to be SHORTING that entire sector hand over fist at that time in ’09. My biggest long term theme target for downside during the Depression.
thx
Fly, you are Henry V and Falstaff at once, sir.
Your Agincourt is coming, and it is with confidence that I say you shall lead us into the breach once more, your bling on fire, your chalice ablaze, your dildo detractors all drowning in douche.
DD thanks for the heads up on SDP, loaded up 85-86. Can’t beat 10pts in 2 hours.
CRASH COMING
The wave 4 triangle pattern remains in play, in fact Wednesday’s price action fulfilled almost
perfectly the wave {d} decline from the top descending boundary to the bottom rising boundary. Next should be the final wave for this symmetrical triangle, wave {e} up. Here’s the thing about this next wave. It can be short, or long, can reach the upper declining boundary and finish there, or truncate, fall short of that boundary, then reverse sharply as wave 5 down begins. The reason we have been so focused
on this symmetrical triangle, is that there are very high odds that the direction of prices entering the pattern will be the same direction they leave. In the current case that would be down. Further, this pattern gives us a measurable downside target. That target would be the distance that wave {a} traveled,subtracted from the top of wave {e}, wherever that lands.
This all means if in fact this is a symmetrical triangle wave 4, as we strongly suspect, there will be an approximate 2,000 point crash from the point of wave {e}’s top. That should start within a day or two. We can now estimate that the downside target should be somewhere between 6,700 and 7,100, depending upon how high wave {e} goes. If {e} stops at the upper boundary of the triangle, that would be around 9,000, meaning the crash should take prices down to 7,000ish.
October 23rd, 2008 +/-: This is the twelfth phi mate date we have scheduled for 2008. It will likely be a top, at the merging point of a converging triangle. We believe this could lead to yet another crash leg in stocks, in a series of crashes within wave a-down that started a year ago. This should produce enough discouragement to set the stage for a bottom that lasts a while, wave b-up. The past two phi mate turns marked the start and end of a crash, September 26th the closing top, with the crash starting
the next day, Monday September 29th, our scheduled phi mate turn. That crash leg one day before our scheduled phi mate turn date, on October 10th, 2008. On our scheduled phi mate turn date of October 13th, we got the largest one day rally in history. We wrote in our September 12th, weekend newsletter, page 7, “September 29th could be a kickoff to a devastating stock market crash.” That proved true to the day, the Industrials crashing 3,260 points, or 29 percent. The next phi mate turn after October 23rd will be November 20th +/-
Just bought some MOS at 28.68. This is crazy.
Hey anyone watching “Black Dog” on AMC. Just started at 11 am cdt. I love those DOG movies. Actually, has some good big rig action. Enjoy!
c_o- Aside from being the scum of the earth, you’re illiterate as well, beautiful, pig fucker.
DD…makes sense to me since thats where all the “nice guy” money is sitting. Whack…
I love the financial world.
BTW..did those hearings get any play on the mainstream media yesterday? Where are the buyers going to come from?
Get ready for liftoff…
OCTOBER 23, 2008
Morning Call Correction: Centaurus In London, Not Houston, Facing Redemptions
London hedge fund Centaurus Capital LP, not John Arnold’s Houston hedge fund Centaurus Energy Advisers, is facing rising redemption requests on the heels of a 22% drop this year in the value of its $2 billion Alpha Fund, according to press reports today.
A report out earlier in TraderDaily’s Morning Call incorrectly referred to the Houston hedge fund, which is wholly unrelated to the London firm.
We are now serving kool-Aid in the main hall.
All in.
blowhard, happy to help and appreciate the thanks.
CARGILL IS NOT GOING TO SELL 250 million shares IN THE OPEN MARKET.
MOS is retarded cheap.
DD, what’s your thesis on being negative utilities?
mrkcbill, no play at all on the mainstream. The government has a gag order out. They are scared shitless that the average joes find out about it. Hopefully, tonight will have some mention with greenjerk testifying. If not, you know the government is SUPER DUPER scared shitless.
long MOS @ 29.26
SKF is my largest position, followed by NOV and MOS.
I punted CMG for a quick profit and I’m buying CMB.B instead. It’s 19% cheaper than CMG, has the same economic rights, and 10X the voting power. The $100M buyback they announced today is only for CMG.B shares. Gotta love the efficient market! The only downside is that it’s much more illiquid. The company is also working on coverting the B into A is they can be sure it’s tax efficient for them, if that happens that’s instant 19% profit.
Cash now less than 15%
SKF still a good entry point here?
Get it at 155, God willing.
My work here is done.
Fly…you always said LNN would print $35
Mr. EB,
Utilities:
*largest sector after financials that use debt.
*everybody thinks they are the dividend safe haven.
*dividends will be slashed due to freeze in credit to free up operational capital.
*decreasing margins due to depression and reduction in power requirements.
*bad debt due to people running from their houses and leaving their unpaid utility bills on the floor.
*everything goes down in a depression.
*I like beating up on the perceived BIG DOG. It’s one of my character flaws.
Of course I could be wrong, however, my animal senses tell me I’m not.
fuck it just bought 200 at 160…now i pray..
Dog, I just bought some of your sdp.
DD, I was wrong about you. You might be a smart cookie after all. Good logic and rationale in your Utilities short. I’m impressed.
DD,
Understand your thesis, but SDP trades as thin as that anorexic Olsen twin. Seems this would be your least likely inverse candidate.
However SDP only 24,000 shares traded, it’s too illiquid for me. I may look into a basket of individual stocks.
i want to see AAPL take out 95.2
is DD the new Fly?
Mr Market Says:
Get ready for liftoff…
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
How’s that working out for ya?
In contrast, SKF volume almost 19M shares.
Im buying MOS Now at 28.70 The Dow going UP NOW
Short more here. Buy more puts. We’re going down.
“White House warns GDP number is not good”
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE!
My office is lit up like a god damn nuclear submarine during launch sequence at the start of WW3. Buckle up boys, cause Kansas, is going bye-bye.
LET THE PARTY BEGIN!!!!!!!!!!!!
So far so good DD…I have your mustache in my sights.
I agree that SDP is thin, however, that’s good because the smart asses that have been shorting it can’t get out. It will spike up HUGE and I;ll be BTCing very slowly inflicting maximum pain on the little dogs on my turf.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!
I DRINK IT UP!!!!!
SNDK,,,,holy shite….I guess the Chinese aren’t going to be sharing as many digital pictures as thought!
Dog, I happen to agree with you on that. SDP looks phenomenal here.
Dog –
Got it. Thanks.
I’m shocked at this outcome…Can I go take my nap now?
RC, welcome to the party!
Thanks Anton.
Breaking news…The Fly now works as a servant for DEVILDOG. DEVILDOG was seen wearing the Fly’s white robe whilst sipping expensive wine from what was once the Fly’s golden chalice.
DEVILDOG Says:
I agree that SDP is thin, however, that’s good because the smart asses that have been shorting it can’t get out. It will spike up HUGE and I;ll be BTCing very slowly inflicting maximum pain on the little dogs on my turf.
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Sorry, I meant to say I’ll be selling very slowly. Too used to being SHORT stocks instead of in 2X inverse etfs.
WOW, that bailout package sure did the trick, eh? Amazing, I mean, simply fucking spectacular. I can’t even think of a superlative adequate to describe the outright, unqualified success of the whole venture.
Today’s afternoon market dive is sponsored by DEVIL DOG.
Heck no freakin farmer will be using fertilizer in a commodity selloff.