I am 99% sure the market will goose step higher in November. However, before we can enjoy such fascist behavior, we need to finish up October. With the Presidency nearly guaranteed to Obama, Wall Street needs to price in shit, such as higher taxes.
Did you know, during the great depression, taxes went from high 20’s to 70% for rich folk? Perhaps we will get to enjoy such draconian measures, sometime soon. After all, fuck the rich guys; let’s help the homeless.
With my money, I sold 1/4th of my [[SKF]] position, north of $155. I didn’t do anything with the proceeds. It’s sort of just sitting there, doing nothing. Also, I was quite pleased to see National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] crush numbers. In a normal tape, that fucker would be up 25%, right now.
I repeat: I am not selling ANY National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , at these levels. Fuck that.
And, finally, you fuckers need to bring cogent ideas to the comments section. It’s become some sort of mob hangout, where imbeciles run around naked—each trying to “outidiot” one another. I can’t say I am surprised; but for fucks sake, show mercy on the people with IQ’s north of 90.
Finally, I do not trust this market. I think it is imperative that one stay long, with protective shorts. For example, long Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] and short the underlying metal, via [[BOM]] . Into strength, I will continue to add to [[SKF]] , hopefully sub $150, until I am fully hedged.
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If we can’t get back to a negative dow by noon, I think we’re gonna have a big short squeeze on those fuckers who thought we would fall off a cliff today.
Midget, read Fly’s comments above.
Or how about going long SSO QLD DDM and shorting emerging markets via EEV ? Seems like a good hedge considering emerging markets are headed to zero.
I got my balls handed to me on a platter this morning from FSLR.
I am having my wife sew them back on as we speak.
Does that count as cogent?
No one can OUTIDIOT me !
lifted from a comment from Mike Murphy on his advisory.
‘The Lehman Brothers credit derivative swaps settled Tuesday, and may have caused some of the late-day weakness as those who wrote the insurance sold stocks to come up with the money to pay. Lehman had over $600 billion of debt, which attracted about $400 billion in outstanding swap contracts.
About 350 different counterparties to the Lehman contracts were at the auction, where it was determined that Lehman’s debt is worth only 8.62 cents on the dollar in bankruptcy.
So the “protection sellers” who sold insurance against Lehman’s default have to pay out 91.38 cents for each dollar of debt they insured. If you are keeping score, net of offsets
that’s about $270 billion from firms like AIG, Bill Gross’ PIMCO and the Citadel hedge funds. It goes to the banks, brokers, pension funds and other financial intermediaries that held Lehman debt and paid the insurance premium. Of course, this is the largest payout ever in the $55 trillion credit default swap market. It may be blamed for triggering a crash this week.”
Buying some SPY Nov 75 puts cause it just makes sense. They are cheap at $1.65. They could really come in handy.
“Cogent comments” —
GG is pricing in gold as a replacement material for “Reynolds Wrap.”
NOV and TSO are pricing in the Obama confiscation of all automobiles over four cylinders.
The “Smart” Car is not so much.
_________
Fly, pull my finger
Long the DOW and short small caps has been working well for me. Just buy equal amounts of DIA and SBB. These small companies are never going to be able to get financing where as the dow components don’t need it.
Also CSCO is a ridiculous barging right here and as Fly said yesterday it does tend to run in the 4th Q. I’m also long DOW and banking a lot of coin after their earnings today while collecting a 7% dividend!
Short AXP and MCO. AXP has too much paper to roll and MCO may be the worse company in the world.
I’d rather be long emerging markets here, short some other bullshit.
The MSCI index is at a historical trendline (where is Wood when you need him?).
Short EEV or long EEM, while staying long SKF works.
Here’s a cogent idea Fly, I think it’s too early to bet on oil now. Wait until after the elections when these fuckers stop trying to play games with lower oil prices now.
Watch oil fly AFTER the elections,trust me on this one.
FLY:
Is Cargill buying more MOS or have they been selling MOS.
Enough with the taxes up cause of Obama sound bites.
The fucking US is broke. We have more debt than the rest of the world debt combined.
If McCain wins; taxes are going the fuck up
If Obama wins taxes are going the fuck up.
No matter what they say.
Some of this shit will eventually have to be paid back and the consumer always pays.
1?
I hate McCain/Palin. I am just looking forward to a tax hike, that’s all.
Fly, How do DOW and UPS look on the PPT? Thanks
LOL @ Jake . karma +5
Thats some funny shit.
Donny, Thanks.
Trading music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mlahvvymkxc
LONG DUCK DONG NYT at 10 and 1/2 greenbacks…you betcha
Bought more SDP down here.
Where is fried DEVILDOG?!?
DOW
Fundies:
Debt/Equity 4
PEG Ratio 1
Price/Book 5
Price/Sales 5
Profit Margin 3
Sub Rosa 0.2
Final Score 3.40
PPT Recommendation: Buy
Technicals
Accumulation Distribution 1
Price Performance 1
Relative Strength 1
Volatility 2
Volume 2
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 1.25
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
Hybrid:
2.22
Sell
UPS
Fundies
Debt/Equity 4
PEG Ratio 1
Price/Book 2
Price/Sales 5
Profit Margin 2
Sub Rosa 0.2
Final Score 2.75
PPT Recommendation: Sell
Tech
Accumulation Distribution 1
Price Performance 1
Relative Strength 2
Volatility 1
Volume 1
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 1.25
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
Hybrid:
1.93
Strong Sell
How do you explain the weakness in MOS while POT AGU and others are up?
But I can tell you, sans robot, DOW and UPS blow.
Oh there he is, losing money.
Fly: I second that how does DOW look. With the price increases they put in and oil falling off I like this stock. Not to mention a 7% yeild and a great earnings report today. I added a lot yesterday and haven’t sold any today.
MOS is weird like that.
CF is down too.
It will pop soon.
Thanks for the music
CMG is rocking and rolling. Booyah!
Cogent Comment:
Liquify half of MOS position, change the letter to an “N” and hit the buy button here ($77).
For fun and profit.
______
Wouldn’t surprise me if we finish red today. In fact it would surprise me if we don’t. I don’t trust morning rallies. We lose them way too often.
Fly- I hope you don’t mind but my utility bill was cut off for non-payment so I ran a long extension chord between our houses. Thanks and Shalom.
CAP — you call this a “rally?”
I call it a tentative feel out.
______
Everyone just eat burritos and buy CMG. Everything is going to be fine. USA USA USA!
Being short DIA has done wonders, How many people you know that decided to get married anyways after losing their job?
I have an idea. Why don’t people just trend trade SPY and SH on a MACD buy/sell crossover. I have invested this way for years (shorting the SPY before there was SH). I just clip off 2% gains here and there, end up around +25% and the end of the year with very little risk and a lot less stress. No weightings no balancing positions etc. Anybody have a reason why this is a bad idea?
I haven’t seen an ETF rating from the PPT. Mind doing a couple for us Fly?
Darius, was that a joke? DIA is the ETF for Dow Jones, not real diamonds.
Unclear why Congresspersons are wagging their fingers at Vin Diesel.
Feels kind of like the standard obligatory weak-ass counter rally —
Have you noticed every day another co. cuts another 10k jobs… Yahoo… Ebay… today it was GS.
What the fuck are all these people going to do? Probably cash in whatever stocks they have to pay bills. Cuz they sure aren’t getting rehired anywhere unless it’s McDonald’s or they join the army. Oil is down for good now so NOV is going to be fighting it.
An old, old man was lying in his death bed upstairs. His most
favorite food in the world was chocolate chip cookies. As he lay
there, gasping for each breath, he was sure he could smell
freshly-baked chocolate chip cookies. He crawled out of bed and
slowly limped down the stairs. Sure enough, across the kitchen,
there was a huge platter of chocolate chip cookies on the table.
He finally made it to the table and he reached a shaking
hand towards the cookies. Suddenly, his wife slapped his hand
sharply and yelled, “DON’T TOUCH THOSE-they’re for the funeral!”
This market looks like a monkey shit fight.
It just feels like its time to blow some more traders up – my guess is a monster rally to blow out the daytrading shorts.
FLY:
Something is up with MOS my gut tells me get out!
however I’m always wrong and you are usually right
Therefore I’m doubling down right here!
Cheers
All in!
Anybody? Please tell me if my idea is a good one. I’m gonna keep doing it. I usually invest 85-90% on my capital on just the one single trade. If I get a MACD trend up, I buy SPY or SSO. If MACD goes bearish I buy SH/SDS and repeat. Screw equities.
KC — good one.
______
– Mr. EB
You dont say?
Oils and oil services are holding this market up. It’s easy to see
My best idea at the moment is so radical regarding China and the raw materials/metals producers, that I hesitate to post it unless the Fly says he wants to hear it. My thoughts would likely be unusual unless you’ve had the “pleasure” of working with NBC (native born Chinese) yourself.
Simple Investor-
I think it’s a great idea, I’ve recently been doing something similar with pretty nice success.
What time frame indicators do you use?
Is it just me, or are those BP commercial interviewing the “man on the street” about energy incredibly annoying?
Ah glorious, I bought at close yesterday and dumped everything at market open, reviving myself from the face punches my account received yesterday morning.
BTW, has anyone seen DEVILDOG? I know he mortgaged the farm to buy truckloads of SDP (-11%) because it was “coiled like a snake” ready to skyrocket today…
In other news, I had a dream about Sarah Palin last night. She was on stage behind a podium desperately trying to answer questions, until she got stuck and said she would have to go backstage and get an answer, but she just fucking stood there like a retard. Then Cher (I shit you not) ran out dressed like an Egyptian and sacked her Borat style (with Pamela) to the audience’s applause.
Simple,
If it works and you’re happy with the results, then keep doing it.
Normally weekly, daily and 60 minutes, no less. That is all. I wait in the weeds while the MACD stays in the negative or positive teritory for quite some time. Once it crosses the zero line I execute. I stop myself out when it crosses back over the other way and I take my profits as I see fit. I have been doing this shit for a while now and it is a great way for someone without a lot of man power to invest/trade their money. Why manage 80 different positions when you just manage one? Bullshit earnings reports, rumors, upgrades, downgrades, BANKRUPCIES. What a bunch of shit. This strategy removes all the bullshit. Just trade it with dicipline, stick with your plan and you’ll make money.
Mr. EB, I’m very much in the green and will soon be SUPER DUPER GREEN. Bought some more SDP. Watch and learn. I thought the DIA was the ETF for real diamonds. Thanks for straightening me out. Don’t froret to keep track of SDP and be sure to let me know how much I lose tomorrow.
Blew out of MOS
Fuck it!!!
How many hours sleep did you get in the kennel, Dog?
MOS heading for 20.
Still holding MOS, but what the hell is going on? The market up about 1.5% and its down 6%
Money & Markets E-newsletter 10-23-08
A Brave New, Profitable World …
by Larry Edelson
We’re in a brave new and very scary world.
But it’s also a world chock full of new opportunities and profit potential. I’ll tell you about one of my favorite sectors in a moment.
First, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, let me repeat my previous forecast, and help you keep the long-term picture in focus: If you think the great bull markets in natural resources are over, think again.
Natural Resources Will Drive Tomorrow’s Economy
Ask yourself the following three very important questions …
Question #1: Will 3 billion souls in Asia who have just entered the 20th century, let alone the 21st, suddenly stop demanding new, better lifestyles for themselves? For their children?
I don’t think so.
Question #2: Will the severe supply restrictions in many of the world’s precious natural resources suddenly disappear, creating an oversupply instead?
I don’t think so.
If anything, with less capital and credit available today, the supply constraints in many natural resources are bound to get worse, not better.
Many mines are being shuttered right now. Oil companies have put new exploration projects on hold.
The slowdown in the world economy is actually more bullish for natural resources than it is bearish.
The slowdown in the world economy is actually more bullish for natural resources than it is bearish.
And keep in mind: it’s a lot easier to shut down a mine or an oil well than it is to crank them up again.
So actually, the slowdown you are seeing in the world economy is more bullish for natural resources than it is bearish.
It will undoubtedly cause a setback in new discoveries and new supply sources yet again, crimp production levels, and ultimately create even more upside price pressure on natural resource prices.
Now, ask yourself another, and very important, question …
Question #3: Where is the $3 trillion that is now being spent by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to bail out the financial system going to come from?
From you and I, the taxpayers? No. Even if taxes were raised, there’s no way the tax base can even make a dent in the amount of money that is going to be spent to bail out the system.
From investors in our bond markets? Yes, part of it will come from there.
From foreign investors buying government IOUs? Yes, partly. But even there, it’s highly unlikely that nearly $3 trillion will be raised in the bond markets.
This means bond prices — and the dollar — are going to get crushed by the new supply of treasuries that are going to flood the markets.
The ever increasing supply of paper money and other factors are going to put major upside pressure on natural resource prices.
The ever increasing supply of paper money and other factors are going to put major upside pressure on natural resource prices.
And the ever increasing supply of paper money, along with the forces I mentioned above via the questions I asked and answered for you, are going to put huge upside pressure on tangible assets and natural resource prices, again.
But there’s one more aspect to the financial crisis, and to the ultimate fate of natural resources that I think you need to know and understand …
It’s the concept of a “crisis in confidence” that you’re hearing so much about in the media, and from other pundits.
What really is a “crisis in confidence?”
Is it simply nervousness about investments, or anxiety about the markets or the economy?
That’s what the media would like you to believe.
But it goes much deeper than just that.
From my studies of economic history, a “crisis in confidence” generally takes on two distinct stages …
Stage I of a Crisis In Confidence …
That’s when investors have diminishing confidence in the private institutions that service the public. We’re seeing that currently in the backlash against Wall Street.
When there’s a lack of confidence in Wall Street, investors abandon paper investments in droves. They sell stocks. They dump bonds. They move largely to cash and money markets.
That’s what’s happening now.
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This is nothing to do with games of chance, but I hope your answer to that question would be a resounding, “NEVER!!” Assuming you’re sane that is … Well, that is a virtually PERFECT analogy of the power of the insider signal!
It’s often said, “The Stock Market is just a big casino.” And it’s true. But the important omission in that statement (to keep the masses out!) is the dealer in this casino tips his hand to the select few … the insiders.
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Then Stage II of the crisis in confidence hits …
That’s when investors, indeed, the entire public sector, lose faith in the government — in the public institutions that serve the public.
Right now, the public is largely buying into the government’s bailout of the financial system. They’ve put their faith in the central bank and in Washington to fix the system.
But that’s temporary. When the public realizes what the government is doing to their money — devaluing it — to save the system, the crisis in confidence will hit the public institutions as well.
And that’s when the real, full-blown crisis sets in. When the public neither trusts the private nor the public sectors of the economy.
And in those situations, paper assets — especially stocks and bonds — get shunned big time.
In their place investors buy tangible assets like crazy, everything from gold to oil to food. Assets with intrinsic value.
That time is coming, and it’s closer than most think.
A crisis of confidence makes investors leery of stocks and bonds and eager to own tangible assets like gold, oil and food.
A crisis of confidence makes investors leery of stocks and bonds and eager to own tangible assets like gold, oil and food.
And when that shift from paper assets to tangible assets goes full tilt, you will be amazed at how high — and how fast — commodity prices can skyrocket. That includes the companies that deal in them, even if the broad stock markets are falling.
As I said at the outset, we’re in a brave new and very scary world. But one that’s also full of profit potential.
So instead of seeing panic, keep your wits about you and look for opportunities. Because there are more opportunities cropping up now than I’ve seen in decades.
Look at one of my favorite sectors, for instance: The valuations of oil and gas shares. Consider the following …
— Devon Energy, with more than 2.37 billion barrels of oil on its balance sheet. Yet its share price has been beaten up so badly by panic selling, the company’s oil is now valued at a mere $12.50 a barrel!
Imagine that. Right now, by purchasing shares in Devon Energy, you would be effectively controlling oil at just $12.50 a barrel!
A bargain? You bet it is.
Or how about …
— Pioneer Natural Resources, one of my favorite oil and gas plays. Its oil is currently valued at less than $6 a barrel!
— Or Suncor Energy, with almost 15 billion barrels of oil, currently valued at less than $2.60 a barrel!
Cheap valuations? You bet they are.
Time to start buying? No, not yet. Why? Because we’re still in Phase I of the “crisis in confidence”, where investors sell just about everything that’s not tied down.
Wait for Stage II of the crisis in confidence, keeping fully in mind the longer term view of the natural resource markets, via the questions I posed above, and answered for you.
Do that, wait for my signals, and you could make more money in the next few years than you have in a lifetime.
Best wishes,
Larry
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
Agreed, I play the 1-60 minute intraday charts on a few etfs long and short, works well.
j, crashed for about 4 hours. Got up about an hour after the open. How about you?
“1 ?” The US is in debt, because that’s how the system works. We are not on the gold standard, so it makes no sense for the government to hold on to a currency, as long as it’s going to lose value. Of course, it makes even less sense to replace those dollars with worthless social programs helping people buy a house who can’t afford it and will later screw up the economy… unless of course you’re the federal reserve, and you bennefit from banks going out of business and giving out bad loans, or some power hungry peice of garbage that wants the US to take over the banks. Of course, now all this credit is deflating, and cash is more valuable.
The difference between Republicans, and democrats is that republicans BORROW and spend, and democrats TAX and spend.
Not much difference, true, as we will ultimately have to pay for the tax in the future… UNLESS we borrow money to create assets for the US, at a higher income rate than we spend. Borrowing money in order to create exports that will be able to pay off the foreign loans, and produce cashflow, for example…
But the federal reserve and their cronies won’t let that happen.
True, McCain and obama arre stuck between a rock and a hard place, but it’s VERY clear that obama is going to tax much more… And the rich are more financially inteligent, and will find a way to move their wealth overseas and protect it, and ultimately the government will tax the hard working employees, rather than the large businesses.
The rich always win, if you declare war on them, they’ll hurt you a lot worse then if you would make it easy for them to create jobs….
just sayin.
fly, buy mos at close or pass?
Mr. EB & charlie, I’m here. Just to restate my position in SDP which I disclosed a couple of days ago. I’ve been accumulating SDP for quite some time now starting in the $50s. Have bought blocks in the 60s, 70s, 80s(again this morning) and 200 shares yesterday at 89.50. I’ve got a total of 9,500 shares. Please keep a watchful eye on it for me. Thanks for the help.
Boca – Having travelled in Asia extensively, I want to hear your idea. I have a feeling I know what you are going to say.
I buy 1000 shs Gannett GCI @ 8.99….stoopid cheap
Boca – keep it to yourself
Somebody just dropped a huge ticket and called Goldman up
Norcal, I don’t have your experience of travelling in Asia but I do have plenty of experience working with a Chinese company and getting to know how they think and how they execute business strategy.
I believe the Chinese were not happy with price increases in copper, coking coal, shipping costs, etc. Knowing how much raw material their country needs long term, their concern has led to attempts to cut back on orders or “official” estimates of growth in order to force the price of needed commodities down, or to force the share price of commodity producers down so that they can buy a piece of RIO (Vale) or BHP much cheaper than 9 months ago.
First rule, never trust the figures or statistics or financial reports from a Chinese firm or government agency — unless it’s clearly in their self interests to tell you the truth. Otherwise, as a matter of business policy, it is considered good business practice to twist the truth in order to obtain an advantage in the deal. (The concepts of honesty and fair play as worthy achievements in business dealings are Western concepts, and often irrelevant in a Chinese deal. If the dumb gwei-lo believe what they are told, a double-plus win for the native Chinese, one win in the deal, and another win for getting over on the Americans who think they’re so smart in business.)
What called the top in raw materials prices for the Chinese, imho was:
1. RIO (Vale) built (or has on order to be built) an extremely large ship just to ship coal to China
2. head of FCX going on CNBC (Fast Money, I think) and being clearly giddy on the giant amounts of money they were making selling copper to the Chinese.
3. BHP, there was some wrangling there regarding a deal with the Chinese, can’t recall exactly the details right now.
China needs to ensure their sources of raw materials at a reasonable price. Now that the Olympics are over, they will do *anything* to make that happen including hurting themselves in the short run by doing without in order to influence the market in their favor for the long run.
Will the Chinese attempt to buy part of RIO (Vale) now that their share price has crumbled? in my uninformed opinion, that would be an excellent plan on their part and would not surprise me.
In sum, I agree with many points made in El Scorcho’s post above — there is no way with 6 billion people in the world that they just don’t need commodities anymore like you “don’t need” to buy a new car this year.
Too late NBC, sorry.
– I thought you weren’t going to post unless the FLY said he wanted to hear it? You were just dying to get that off weren’t you? Spend all night developing it? Looking for brownie points?
Anyway, probably true but not really earth shattering news is it?
WTF???? NBC, what is your problem? I just wrote that right now and it’s clearly just an opinion piece based on my personal experience. Norcal said he wanted to know and Fly hadn’t said anything either way, so I decided to post it.
What is this crap about brownie points? Go eat your own shit brownies. why are you hiding behind NBC as a posting name, why not use your usual name? At least I use the same name when I post.
I’m sorry if it’s not earth shattering to YOU, which is why you already posted the theory correct? cause you already knew it? you wouldn’t be another poster here that recently has acted like he knew it all, would you?
I have plenty of other things that need doing in my life. I won’t bore the asshats here any longer with daring to share my opinion.
Cheers. Oh, and you know what to do …. f-off.
I was a little insulted because i am Natural Born Chinese…and you are what JAP? Jewish American Princess?
-boca
Good post, The chinese dont hold any Value in the truth. As the Chinese would say “It’s all about the benjamins!”