With my brain about to explode, from a soaring blood pressure, this afternoon, I blew out of [[UYG]] , mid 9’s, and went long 30,000 [[SKF]] in the low 140’s. I ate a large percentage loss, selling 3/4ths of my Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] position, making that two coal holes in a row.
Stupidly, I bought more National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , thinking the world was not going to end.
Stupid me, fuckface, the world is going to end.
During my weekly chat with my neighbor Steve, I asked him “how’s the fucking financial crisis treating you”? He replied, “oh, hell Fly, I am getting killed. I sold out of my mutual funds for a 30% loss.”
People like Steve are fucking idiots. But, that’s not the point. The point is: all of these main street chinese food take out lovers are scared shitless. We are in the midst of the biggest run on the financial system ever.
If you have been buried in losses, do not feel as if your trading methods are flawed. The whole fucking system is flawed. There is no way anyone, aside from biased intuition, could predict 25% daily moves in stocks—not even my Godly PPT system, which by the way has been bearish on the overall market, forever. I don’t listen.
My investment philosophy is to be early and right. But, I am very flexible in my strategies, in order to adapt to changing environments, which is why I never give advice in person. I’m always changing my mind and shit, especially over the past year.
So, here is the new game plan:
Hold on to the knifing commodity fuckers, while hedging with egregious bank shorts. On any sign of a bounce, I will deploy the rest of my cash, and use leverage if needed, to get a good average down on those fuckers, with intentions of selling the bounce.
The [[SKF]] or [[SRS]] positions will remain static, until I worm my way out of the commodity mess.
Hey neighbor Fly. I will be needing a job soon and I thought I could be your trader/servant number two.
Okay?
Fly for President
TIME MASHEEN! TIME MASHEEN!
what does that mean?
He replied, “oh, hell Fly, I am getting killed. I sold out of my mutual funds for a 30% loss.”
People like Steve are fucking idiots.
Why is he a fucking idiot. He’s up on the trade.
Everyone around me is starting to shit the money bed.
Unintended consequence: I have been able to size up a lot of people as a result. In my mind anyone not shitting the money bed is either a) Fly or b) flat ass broke without a cent to their name. I choose b.
The panic is juuuuust starting on main street.
what does that mean?
its a reference from the old blog. Fly posted this bizarro Nazi time machine video before he crushed some great trades. Sorry if I went too obscuro on you Danny.
25% daily losses are the new 3% daily gains. Wait till DD unleashes his 5k on the market and the real downmoves begin. I have seen the light and my new target on the Dow is 5 and the Nas is 1.
no prob. I just saw you saying it before and I didn’t know
I must be an idiot. I moved next door to Fly didn’t I? He has brought down the value of our homes ever since he fired his illegal Mexican landscapers. His front lawn is dead and he keeps a junker on blocks in his driveway. Then he killed all of the grass in the backyard, put in a tennis court with lights and keeps us up at all hours with the smacking of the balls and the shining lights.
here it is:
http://flyonwallstreet.blogspot.com/2007/11/un.html
Jeez was that not even a year ago, HANS and MVIS. Damn those were the days…
Just go long INTC like I did today. That is all!
Asia continues to get de-balled…
Korea is done..
Japan trade surplus collapses due to the weight of raw materials cost… yeah Fly, keep betting on commodities coming back… the world can’t afford a commodity bubble.
“and use leverage if needed”
…
You’re kidding, right?
I am going to drink a bottle of cab tonight, (2005, Cakebread, Benchland Select), and ponder what my gains will be tomorrow. Egregious? Yes-No?
Fly do you have any thoughts on the call this morning by SISR? A $60 target is really high but then again this selloff is grotesque. If they are going to do $11.26 in ’09 I would look to be conservative and give them a 5 multiple, this still puts them at fucking $56. I just I just don’t know how this fucking company can be public at this point? I know things are irrational at this point in the market but hell its like GOOG trading at fucking $70, someone would buy them even in this market.
Karen Tso can announce the Aussie market down big with a smile on her face and erotic accent all while looking stunning. Meanwhile, viewers are puking up their kim chee and sushi as they see the asian markets get raped yet again.
I love Karen Tso.
Teh Fly,
Question: (not sarcastic)
How does a strong buy on fundies and a strong sell on techies give you a hybrid buy? Shouldn’t it be a hold?
No, I am not kidding about leverage. If used correctly, it can be of great use.
Why do I bother?
You’re all idiots.
better take a couple days off Fly, before you pop a vein or something. Life is too short to bust a gut at such a young age.
Fly, try some SDP for some gains. I held all my SHORTS today and bought more SDP at the open this morning. Good luck! I mean that. I appreciate your making this site available for traders to learn from each other. Obviously, there will be much passionate debate as there are two sides to the trade and one’s money at stake. However, I love this game even when I’m wrong because I can always find a way to come out on top just like you.
Damn this Booker’s is making me sentimental.
My brother-san is not himself, he went all-in on a gamble for a rally thinking there was a Buffet Bottom… prease forgive him.
Shroom:
Typically, a stock would have to have insanely good fundies, in order to outweigh the weak technicals, in order produce a buy.
However, one should always be cognizant of the fact that if a stock has a strong sell on technicals, one should use caution.
Like I said, we are not done tweaking the formula and will make sure it is perfect.
The only sector that is a buy, technically, has been airlines.
All in all, this is not a normal market and normal gauges should not be a applied.
You people deserved to lose money in your little commodity bubble. Commodities are done forever.
Oil is going to zero. Oil was just a fad, like Crocs.
This time next year our energy needs will be met by mules and slaves.
Positions: short oil. Long mules and slaves.
How can NOV not bounce off this. Tomorrow they will make numbers or better. Their guidance may suck ass, but they are at like 4.5x future earnings. Fuck me. Even if it goes to 5 it is going to bounce around like a lottery ball first.
The Fry is in his 30s, how do you expect him to know how to trade a market rike this?
Thunderpup,
With apologies to all babe chi-niss everywhere:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbaFM_CA4mw&feature=related
Relax Fly, one or two more lower lows there won’t be any more bottom calls on TV or in Barron’s…
Fry san:
One more idiotic comment and your fucking banned. I have no patience for yhoo message board cretins.
I was baptized into a tumultuous market, Fry san. I have been gaming bear markets my whole life, fuck face.
One last chance to shut the fuck up.
In my oh, so witty approach, i was dead serious about getting away from commodities. the world can’t afford a runup in them, there won’t be any form of an extended Ag or commodity related rally for years.
Fly-
Your fine dude, you know it.. fuck the weak deball the strong. Tough slanging your PPT shit in this enviro, but hey thats life dude.
count me in
Asian markets at new lows. US still above the lows.Odd no ?
Not really. New lows tomorrow. Down 1000 points on the Dow.
Its over folks. The end of days are upon us.
BTW doesn’t the Aztec calendar show the world ending in 2012 or something like that. Its probably true. I’m going to go make my peace with the Lord and prepare for the afterlife.
I am going to dress in my favorite Brioni suit with Tiffany cuff links and A.Tetoni shoes and prepare for the end.
That picture of Jerry Garcia, in the “O” of SHOT really bothers me.
Guess what fuckers? I’m still up 40%, YTD.
Quit player hating.
Fly vs. Wood, Round 1 goes to Woody, who stuck his robot dick in your mouth via Big Bamboner.
Say it ain’t so. Krull may be calling it quits.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-3EEI0xPOU
We love you man!!
Round 2:
Wood realized he works for Fly.
Fly wins again.
Match over.
DevilDog…..seems like it is time for you to start posting some of our buys (ie like FLY) since you seem to want to freestyle battle the FLY.
Imma give her my O face?
Whats the o=face?
Oh Oh Oh Oh!
BTW, sports fans just so ya know. The 2 largest crash days in 1929 were 10/24 and 10/28.
What would I buy if my life depended on it? SDP.
Don’t forget to thank me.
You’ve been a fucking basketcase today. Settle down man before you blow yourself up.
Maybe take a week off or something. Spend some quality time with the wife and kids.
Willmer:
STFU. This is when I bank coin. I don’t need time off. I do best, while in the trenches. Maybe you are new here?
This is nothing compared to the real trenches.
Sounds like poor guy was long SNDK. Ouch. Been there. Surprise buttsecks sucks.
Real as in war, I agree.
If you are talking stock market, no this is as bad as it gets, unless you were old enough to trade in 1929.
If you were old enough to trade in 1929, you aren’t welcome on this site per the rules, I believe.
gappingandyapping Says:
Fly do you have any thoughts on the call this morning by SISR
What company are u talking about?
Yo adrian, the Big Bamboner…I’m lmao @ that.
And no Fly, I’m not hatin’ on ya.
The FLY and DEVILDOG are one and the same. During volatile markets, the FLY develops an ulterior personality which exhibits itself in DEVILDOG.
All evil geniuses have split personalities and the FLY is no different. He lets out his inner rage under DEVILDOG.
The similarly sardonic writing style in their postings leads me to this thesis.
Some big hedge fund supposedly was dumping stock today. Asia is RED. SKF never spends much time above $150. I bought a small oil stock today at about $10 that was $25 just a few months ago. I am a retard and a piker.
Fly-
Fire this up with your DD coffee tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLBw28Ojw4c
Mmmm … this wine is good, almost as good as sex and 150 mph.
I will get my egregious gains tomorrow, and my sex, my 150 mph.
BTW, I wish I could play the guitar like the great one below, fucking sick:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULEBSxP725w
The Game is Rigged:
ATPG?
My bullshit retail account is only 25k but damn do i know everything about anything. I also think dick tastes pretty good.
They’re going to pound the comod’s shortly.
This is fast becoming an insanity site and people need to cool down especially those influenced by the dog.
Sanity and reason prevail at the minni fed.
I will personally stab to death anyone who says the Minni fed is lying. If you wanna say that i suggest you start commenting at the truther sides.
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf
Four Myths About the Financial Crisis of 2008
Tuesday October 21, 2008
A short, must-read working paper from Kehoe, Chari and Christiano – Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008. The four myths are as follows:
1. Bank lending to non…nancial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.
2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.
3. Commercial paper issuance by non…nancial corporations has declined sharply and rates have risen to unprecedented levels.
4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers
*shoves his hairy ass bear sized cock up fly’s ass*
PREPARE FOR TOTAL ANNIHILATION
Oh yeah my bear cock along with Mark Haines just ate your pee wee time machine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ty0SlUDgRHc&feature=related
Donny – you might not know that Shed is a kick ass guitarist.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_0hRJm4wFs
No, CPE.
lol @ Boomer. I need to practice A LOT more. Kids and designing stock trading systems have reduced the edge of my licks.
DevilDog- Why SDP? What’s the edge? That fucker is illiquid as hell.
Greetings bear-humpers, DOW 80,000 anyone?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzeZhCt5PVA
The up strokes are the first to go there, picker.
Some one needs to give Ben Stein a Lifetime Asshat Achievement Award. The stupid fuck has been writing bullish market articles for the last year.
Wanna win Ben Steins money ? Well guess what. Ben Stein has no money. He lost it all in the crash of 2008. LMAO .
10/22/2008 10:06 PM [MA] Mastercard has increased its fees from 0.005% of every transaction to 0.0235% – Telegraph
Boom, it is actually my left hand that goes first. And then, I start to forget a lot of the transistion licks that lead me from phrase to phrase.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TedMWQL33ic&feature=related
gobble gobble gobble
Trade for tomorrow let me wait and post it ’til I know what happens
Shedder plays … hmm, what does he think of this guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_XmemkGfDw&feature=related
Does anyone know where I can buy guillotines from ? I am buying them in anticipation of the Revolution. We can drag our overlords/1%ers from their mansions screaming and crying in the middle of the night, and off their heads via the all mighty guillotine , the symbol of Bastille.
The French have their BASTILLE day July 14th. Let us have ours November 14th. Viva La Revolution !
Actually I would like to be wrong about DOW to 6500.
But, let’s face it – the Dow Jones is in a double bottom breakdown.
I think 8200 (circa 2003) will be tested probably by the end of the week.
If that fails then look out below because it’s an elevator chute to 7900.
Personally, I think the markets are holding together by sheer force of will via the Fed and traders like Fly. I think Fly will survive and that helicopter Ben will be ammo-less about hmm, let’s say Nov 5.
Short term picks UUP (sell those pesos while you can), EWJ, DXD
Long term pick: shiny metals.
In this corner, we have Dr. Jekyll (who has actually called the market very well) http://www.thedocument.com/stock_market_blog/2008/20081022_stock_market_crash.cfm
and in this corner, we have Mr. Hyde (who has also called the market & market forces extremely well) http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/623-The-Stark-Choice-Now-Facing-America.html
To sum up, Dr Jekyll thinks the market is set to rally to SPX 1100-1250 from here, right now.
OTH, Mr. Hyde thinks there will be a severe market dislocation, aka: Crash, within 3 days. The Dow will plunge 2000-3000 points in a day and the SPX will take out 500.
Wood, SDP is hard to get in for a reason. I like to go where the herd has not been yet.
Since we’re talking guitarists – check out this 17 year old kid from France. Been playing since he was 8.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggUrTEcllXM
fly, your entering post with my name is inappropriate. Eat a donkey dick with massive amounts of smegma.
“Smegma” … what the fuck?
Dude … you need to mello out. Cool it, would you.
Yeah right I said the market would be down BIG today after it happened. Fuck off fly.
Devil:
I did not do that. Take me at my word.
Tim Knight is a fictional character. There is no such person as Tim Knight; that’s the big secret.
It’s all a joke and you idiots fell for it.
I take it back Fly, lever up, double down, knock yourself out, it’s only money. :/
Can we please detonate Devildog? He’s a total fag.
Don’t be surprised if when UYG gets a reverse split $8 doesn’t cut it
Nikkei & HSI almost at zero … bear market nearly over.
Poor Krull .. his act did not seem like an act tonight.
Hold It, did someone say guitar:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySWS6i9kL4s&feature=related
So everyone thinks tomorrow is a crash? How has group think been so far in the past few months for us. Rally after a bailout, etc. No crash tomorrow then. sorry.
Can’t we all get along?
cuervo, what kind of call is that? The Dow was at 7800 last week. Way to man up and call for a plunge to 7900. LMAO.
FLY, then please get your smart ass coward servant under control. THANKS.
“coward servant” What the Fuck?
All you fuckers need to just calm the fuck down, and listen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yGCHPmfqT0&feature=related
Devil, the booze is gettin to your brain.
OK people, one more fucking time…
you’re is a fucking contraction. You + are = you’re.
your is a possessive, as in “Your use of the language sucks”.
I took some crayons and drew some lines on a yahoo chart, it said SPX 800 by xmas. No soup 4 U!
Cap:
I think this model is the best for what you want to do, takes more time, but way more personal satisfaction:
Guillotine
Devil:
Shut your fucking mouth. I do the bullying around here.
Eddie Van Hale the great one????
Man, the dude married himself – then divorced himself.
Besides, my 4-year old plays eruption, big deal:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMXc16gjqDA&feature=related
Fly – I am actually surprised at you. Maybe you should stop hanging around the country club with rich fucks like yourself. Just ask some of your high school buddies and relatives how they feel right now. Everyone is in panick mode worrying how they are going to get out of debt and keep food on the table.
Irrational? Probably. But the market is held up by confidence, which is gone. So they are selling everything and going to cash.
WTF are you thinking? Do you have normal friends? Do you talk to the dry cleaner, or the cashier at the supermarket? Of course they don’t buy stocks. But they are not buying ANYTHING! Restaurants are half full, stores everywhere are running 50% sales. Come on man – you need to take a day and ride around talking to people other than traders. Only trying to help
Fly-
Is there any way you will meet with me if I come up to NYC this weekend. I will do anything for 15 mintues of your time. I mean it, anything.
I would suck your cock, jerk you off, or pitch or catch….whatever.
Please FLY.
The Fry-san Says:
Cap:
I think this model is the best for what you want to do, takes more time, but way more personal satisfaction:
– Listen. I am trying to off their heads. Not their pinkies. I need something more heavy duty.
BTW – Whats everyones problem with DevilDog ? The guy made some gutsy calls and banked coin. Most of you guys got debanked this week. I bet you guys DD has pulled more tail this week then most you have in a lifetime. The guy is a baller. Let him have his fun. DD against everyone’s advice said the market was going down and put his money where his mouth was. He’s entitled to gloat.
I had a dream that Obama won, and the following day, Dow was down 5000 points to close at 1650, and there were two stocks up… campbells soup, and some randomass microchip stock. Even the inverse ETFs were down due to bank failures and margin calls.
They interviewed OBama and he said “good… I’m glad that the markets are down, because now the gamblers can learn their lesson, and we can rebuild ‘the americas” from scratch, and create new jobs.” White man can pay the consequences of such business ventures that bankrupted black america, and as president of the united states, I’m going to rebuild an america where skin color doesn’t matter… We have the technology to put a chip…. inside your head….. that will make you see everyone as the same person. I will have everyone submit to brain surgery, for the good of all.
Ok, quit mocking Devil. It’s annoying.
What’s up:
No, I do not have normal friends. Good point. I am in a fucking vacuum, where only rich assholes preside. That’s why I come here, the internet, home of the blue collar.
Seriously, I am in the business of managing money for rich people. Not many of those fuckers have credit card debt.
ROFL @ credit card debt.
Come on now. Please. Fuck off.
Amanda Drury not showing cleavage this morning, looking very somber. Hmmmmmm.
Dow 1650 would be Godly.
I’d be willing to lose all of my gains just to see that.
I’d be willing to give up my gains to see Karen Tso nude on on the back of my horse after total financial collapse.
At Dow 1650 the US of A would look like Mogadishu. Burned down buildings, smoke everywhere, burned down vehicles on roadsides. Filthy half naked people fleeing thugs with AK-47s patrolling the dirt filled streets riding in flatbed pickups.
I would never give up my gains for some trick.
It ain’t trickin if you got it
Karen Tso is a virginal unspoiled goddess, not some trick.
Better than sex too.
If the US of A became some Mad Maxx place, my gang idea would ring out. This is great news for me and my gang.
I will conscript you fuckers to gather food and ammo.
I already have food and ammo, just need Karen Tso.
I got first dibs on a West Side gang. You can have the East.
OK Fly – your honest at least. I hang with some rich fucks like yourself – as a matter of fact, i would bet you know them very well. They take the high speed ferry every day to Fall Street. Bottom line though – you need to get a pulse of what average asshats are thinking and doing.
I am actually torn. I have been making real good money getting in and out of SDS and QID lately, but it does not erase the feeling in my gut that my six kids will grow up in a world a lot different than i did. Yes, I can afford to isolate them from the shit that is happening in most places. But I want them to be able to understand and appreciate that fact. And I appreciate the blessing I have too. But you can not stay isolated in a bubble and and wt is really happening – or appreciate how lucky most of us are that we are not facing the problems of “the average” guy. Are problems are that we gain and lose our excess money. The average person HAS NONE!
So I will fuck off for now, as you request
Fly – I have to call your bluff.
You are a family man
You are God-fearing and moral
You are a gentleman
You want the little guy to win
You are sentimental
You live a much more suburban life than you let on
My $0.02
Fly’s kids would man the turrets on his duel outrigger land catamaran.
holy shit, this place is awesome. what is this place? wait a minute, where am i?
“The Fly” does not know anyone with a net worth less than 2 million.
Sorry.
However, he does watch teevee and listen to idiots at Dunkin’ Donuts.
I do not care about Main Street. I care about my sphere of influence.
Via this site, your sphere includes Main Street. Odd, no?
whats up —
what you gotta do is send your kids off to Asia. Vietnam , thailand, cambodia, china anywhere.
What you have is a shifting in the balance of power from West to East. All the money has moved East and all that the West is stuck with is Debt. Think about it , where is the money ? Its not here anymore. Its gone . Gone East. Those 6 Gulf Arab countries alone with a combined population of 30 million are sitting on over $5 trillion in cash. Plus they have no debt and plenty of real assets like oil. What do we have ? Debt, Debt and more debt. Oh yeah and CDOs and shit like that worth 2 cents on the dollar. For all purposes the US of A is insolvent. The only thing we have is our military. We have them stationed around the world to intimidate countries from dropping the dollar and treasuries which will in effect destroy us overnight.
That’s your flaw, Fly. If you would indulge me…
I know people with net worths in the hundreds of millions. Big deal. Bottom line, if the guy making 100K STOPS spending, were all fucked. Because there are tens of millions of them. There are only a small percent of people that can lose 25% – 30% of there life savings, and then have their house depreciate another 25%, and not give a shit.
So how does who you know and their net worth change that?
CAP
I have no debt. House paid for years ago. I have money put away for my kids college. I love this country. I would like my kids to enjoy the opportunities that I enjoyed.
Maybe that is a pipe dream…
fuck those people
You down on America fuckers are pathetic. You think wealth comes from a trade surplus. Wealth comes from having a reserve currency and superior military strength. Everyone else in the world works for you when you have that. The Euro is showing right now that it is a piece of crap as far as a reserve currency goes. Maybe Asia will one day establish a reserve currency, but until then, dollar hegemony establishes who really rules the world – the Federal Reserve.
it’s not you guys are nutso. Recession sure, the end of life as we know it? gimme a break. by comparison this isn’t nearly as traumatic as the sundry historical events of the past hundred years that have been huge and life changing. You guys need to chill the fuck out.
Whats up —
it is all a pipe dream. The USA that you know is finished. The only thing that can save us is a revolution. But the average American is too cowardly to take up arms against our despotic corrupt government and those 1%ers who steal from us. We’d rather sit on the couch, chug beer and watch football.
FLY talks big – starting a gang and shit. But he’ll just drink monster and spit on homeless people as our once great nation falls apart.
Actually if you read the first line you would see that I called 6500 but noted that 7900 was the next probable resistance to get smashed through.
My last post (check PG) gives the reasons.
Cap:
Clearly, you underestimate my gangster.
Thunderpup – how long can we continue to intimidate people with our superior military power ? The Romans tried it, but eventually things fell apart internally. Same thing with the Soviet Union. Even when they collapsed, the USSR had a military that was our equal. But economics did them in. Same thing will happen to us. We are losing our power. And its happening rapidly. How do we keep up our military expenditure when the country is falling apart ?
Danny – recession sure, the end of life as we know it? gimme a break.
In 2001 – we were headed for the shitter. Then we had the real estate bubble and the average guy felt “rich”… yet was insolvent. WTF are they going to do to get confidence back? NOTHING. We will slowly grind our way to DOW 4,000 and then – yes, the end of life as we know it. Ridiculous?
Danny, with all due respect, this is very very close to being much worse than anything in the past 100 years.
The Fly Says:
Cap:
Clearly, you underestimate my gangster.
Is this your gangsta ?
CAP –
you seem to see thing as i do…
We are doomed. And i am an optimist.
You people are depressing. Reading all of youze, you’d think the market fell over the cliff today, ending at a new low on the way to a crash tomorrow morning.
If I remember correctly, the last thing that happened today was a 175 point rally or so. And the overnight S&P futes are flat right now.
I think it was clearly demonstrated today that the market dropped off when CNBC trotted out Fart Cashin on cue to scream “Fire!” in a crowded building by panicking everyone with his annoying textbook “retest the low” (which was 1000 POINTS LOWER at the time of your comment, asshole), that it was more a case of buyers sitting on the sidelines, than an overwhelming number of sellers. Once the buyers stepped in, the market took off like a rocket.
There’s a rally in there somewhere tomorrow. Or not, and my PnL takes an ass kicking. Whatever…
CAP:
Jesus, we’re the freaking reason the world hasn’t destroyed itself yet. I’m kinda sick of us being the world’s policeman, but we’re not Putin.
How do we keep up our military expenditure when the country is falling apart ?
When the whole world goes down together, you only have to spend more than everyone else. Putin’s military ambitions have been gutted in less than a few months – remarkable when you think about it. We have a reserve currency that “taxes” the whole world. Therefore, we can automatically outspend the rest of the world.
DANNY = The only thing we have is our ability to convince the world that the Dollar is worth shit. Once we lose that ability, GAME OVER .
The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled is convincing the world that he didn’t exist
The Greatest Trick the USA ever pulled is convincing the World that the Dollar is worth shit.
Thunderpup – we will still be on top of the pile – but it will be a pile of donkey shit. I was going to say elephant shit, but Obama will rule over the donkey shit pile
what’s up:
I have an open mind. What is your thesis of how the world goes to shit?
Oh, and for what it’s worth, I keep reading and hearing all these people saying this and that is oversold or overbought. I don’t know what metrics these people use, but most of the time whatever they are referring to is not “over” anything.
The only thing that works pretty accurately is this RSI 9 thing I have been using for years on Reuters. Better than other RSI charts that operate under different calculations. All I can say is that “almost” without fail, once it dips below 20, a massive rally is coming. Mind you, only an idiot uses these things on their own. I do make sure that there isn’t something fundamental like numbers coming out in the next days (I of course prefer if they have been reported already) or some accounting irregularity shit. And the overall chart “looks” like something oversold, not something that’s been for sale for two years straight.
In any case, what is popping up right now as massively oversold is gold, the commodity. Massively. I went long today some GLD, but not fully because only a few of the underlying equities became oversold today. I like to see them all oversold to fully confirm, but it doesn’t always happen so I have to at least dip my toe in.
USO is also oversold so I went long some of that. Not much else though. Everything else is trading in the middle of ranges. I don’t fare as well with that as I have no idea where it’s going. I’m a “catch a falling knife” type of guy, I like trading at extremes. I find that contrary to what they like to teach you, these scenarios present asymmetric risk/reward profiles and are a lot less dangerous than you are led to believe.
Foreign funds are chomping at the bit to invest in the US but are waiting until after the election as to not upset the Obama apple cart. It’s no secret that every country in the world except one wants Obama to win. The volatility these past few weeks is a result of the strong trying to shake out the remaining weak hands before markets go up.
worse than anything in the last 100 years?
No. The two world wars were a little worse.
So far this is on a par with the 73-74 bear market.
Steph, they are very dangerous, if one does not use stops, and are not sure of his edge.
With an edge and good risk management, its no different than any other trade.
Thunderpup –
Here’s what i think will happen. The economic crisis will intensify, and our elected idiots will seek to deflect the blame. They will find a reason, or create one, to divert attention away from their idiotic policies and towards an “enemy” of the people. Eventually – there will be war. And the people will forget how we got there. It is a pattern that repeats throughout history. The government must find a channel to direct all of the people’s anger toward – they will. And you can be sure it will not be themselves.
Speedlet, I didn’t way it was worse. I said it is very close to being worse.
To be clear, everything is fine right now. On par with a recession/economic slowdown and hardcore bear market. Nothing to see here.
However, everything has become so interconnected and interdependent, domestically and globally, if one accident happens, one previously un-thought of or rarely-considered event, the system may very well melt the fuck down.
The argument that Taleb and Mandelbrot make in the video GW posted in the PG, (and the one I’ve been trying to make to my closest friends) is that never did anyone think that a hedge fund blowing out positions, because it couldn’t continue getting credit from a nervous bank, could lead to grocery stores, gas stations, etc. not being able to refill inventory.
Neither Taleb and Mandelbrot want this type of thing to happen, but they both are very very scared that it might be happening.
So, I think it makes sense to fully embrace the possibilities of the worst case scenario, in order to be prepared. I do have a family to protect.
Woodshedder – you are right. And if the system melts down, the result will be a war. If not, revolution. Do you think the gov’t would opt for revolution?
I know the Fly called for revolution, but our elected idiots will go with war – hands down.
Wood…well, yes, it’s not for everyone, but it fits my style. I find these trades a lot less dangerous because I am fairly good at catching bottoms and tops so I feel my risk is contained and my upside is huge. On the other hand, I can’t trade momentum worth shit. Every time I try, I get my head handed to me. So I’m much better off trading swings off market bottoms. So what happens is I’ve scored my share of all-time low buys but invariably, I will end up selling way too soon.
the govt doesn’t get a say in ‘choosing’ revolution
s’up:
In a perfect world, 90% of the current Congress would be sentenced to bust 5000 tons of rocks each in central Nevada with a sledgehammer, looking for gold. I’m not sure I see how we go to war over this, unless some nut around the world threatens us.
Nevertheless, I see the real doomsday as an Atlas Shrugs type event. I’m kind of close to that myself.
Steph:
Got a link to the RSI 9 thing?
woodshedder —
All true. I have the same fear — that a seize-up would stop international shipping, which would lead to food and energy shortages. But so far, we’re not there yet.
I have a feeling the real impact of this will be felt in china. They need 10% growth to maintain order. At 4% there will be unrest. Everyone has taken globalization for granted — but the result of a global recession will have implications around the world.
Thunderpup, no, it’s from the old Bridge system, now Reuters, that I pay for. There must be some services on the net that let you put in your own RSI parameters. I imagine in this case it means “9 day” RSI but don’t listen to me, I’m too dumb to figure out how these things work, I just use them.
Ahh, ok…yes, not much of a tech analyst, by I do pay attention to rsi. One thing that seems to work is buy when rsi crosses 50, sell when crosses below, especially on longer RSI’s – not that I trade it, but I always look at it.
Donny,
Great trading.
You’re completely wrong about bowtie guy though. He always admits he’s a terrible market timer; but he gets the rest right. Betting against a self-made rich guy is a bad idea.
Devil Dog,
Kudos
The future of the US is in the hands of the the advisors picked by the next president. Both candidates think hedges are good as long as they are trimmed Spring and Fall. If they bring in their good old boys like On My Watch, the USD & US may never recover. Ifd they bring in the best, we have a slim chance.