Happy New Year

I know what you’re doing. I see you over there, in your little, little chair. It looks like a fucking tripod for an old bullshit camera. You are all smug with confidence, thinking you are on the verge of creating electricity.

You have your little charts and your nice little marble paper weights, placed orderly on your mahogany desk; everything is so honkey dorey. Oh yes, you are very proud of your desk. It is made from a rare wood and it was passed down from a dead relative, which makes it even cooler/more expensive. Every night you polish it up real nice, then lay your fucking asshole charts on top of them, in preparation for the trading day ahead.

You are of the persuasion that the Federal Government is in the business of sucking the foreskin off investors, through low rates and free money. You believe everything is priced in and that the banks will not take King Kong cock sized writedowns next quarter. You think it is safe to swim in the waters, for your little fucking ruler points to a geometric pattern that indicates a “breakout.”

Your world is blissfully wonderful, and also jubilant, until (of course) Dr. Death steps into your office and urinates gasoline all over your dead relatives desk, then tosses a lit cigar onto your pile of neatly stacked queer charts.

Dr. Death brings bad news of unemployment and “fuck you, you’re dead” bankruptcies, to a variety of industries. He has the banks by the short hairs, forcing them to cut deals with delinquent borrowers, who are only 8 months late on their mortgage. These deadbeat fellows demand their banks drop the loan value by one third. Dr. Death makes it so.

He does not believe low rates do anything, since they are artificial. After all, without the communist bastards inside the U.S. government setting prices, LIBOR would be 10% by now.

Finally, he will set you free—if you would only let him into your house, so that he may “take a look” or piss at/on your finely polished mahogany desk.

Knock, knock

UPDATE: EE Times offers 20 predictions, for the semi industry, for 2009 (bulls, do not click).

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8inztO0Xx8 450 300]

In an amazing display of bravery, coupled with idiocy, bulls are squeezing the lemons out of bears, into the final few days of ’08. Much to my chagrin, I find myself just watching this shit, in amazement, saddled with egregious inverse etf’s and loads of cash.

Typically the market sells off in the final days of any year. However, being that 2008 is the stupidest year ever recorded, naturally, the market is ripping higher. The fucking news is Armageddon like and every company in America will be a bank, inside of 6 months, in order to scalp some TARP cash.

Despite oil living in the $30 price range, big oil stocks are bucking the trend, going up in my face. Howsoever, short oil is a bet that I am more than willing to average into, for many of those levered up oil losers will be going out!

Select bank stocks, like GS and WFC, led the market higher, by the nose, sending my FAZ swan diving. Let me tell you, it’s easy to be short when the world appears to be ending. However, during times of jubilation, being short is equal to having your stomach roasted on the devil’s grill—always a bad experience.

I wanted to buy stocks this morning; but I didn’t. Instead of blindly chasing stocks here, I will opt to wait this rally out, then make my move in early ’09.

Poof. Just like that, I hate you.

-Merlin

I am scanning through PPT screens, which represents my brain activity through software, and I cannot motivate myself to buy anything.

I mean, lots of stocks look good. If I just landed on this garbage filled shithole of a planet and took a gander at the stock market, I’d probably say “hmmm, that fucker looks like it will break the fuck out, eeek, eeek, arr, arrr, arrrrr (alien real talk).

Right now, IR, TGT, HAR, LZ, XLNX, INTC, INTU, ALTR, VMW, FO, NYX, IEX, CTV, amongst a variety of other momentum stocks, look bullish. However, past mistakes are haunting me to remember the sentence that I have written on the white board in my office.

It reads: DON’T CHASE STOCKS, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY LOOK GOOD.

Through years of flame broiling myself, in and out of bad trades, I’ve learned that the market is always wrong. When things looks great, typically, it’s time to sell— and vice versa.

Frankly, there are too many stocks up 100% in recent weeks that “look good.” The very notion of buying something, after it has doubled in price, in such a short period of time is— without a doubt— unequivocally fucktarded.

Remember, there are people out there who bought XYZ Corp. 95% ago. Be careful for the sharp edged pendulum swinging into your face.

With regards to the important matter of blogging:

“The Fly” is King of the Internets, as you well know. There are many losers out there trying to steal my thunder. However, I will let these maggots know, on a continuous basis, mind you, that you may take thunder— even steal it— but you must also take the lightning bolt that comes with it (whatever the fuck that means. It just sounds very ill-boding).

I want to buy a mountain lion and set it loose inside my local Citibank.

I want to send 30 pre-paid pizzas to someones house/business.

I want to throw slices of ham at my trader/servant.

I want to lobby Congress to take CNBC off the air!

I want to lobby Congress to take The New Wheel of Fortune off the air (I hate that show).

I want to hire Vince, The SHAM-WOW guy, to do a cheesy infomercial for iBankCoin.

I want to build a real catapult in my backyard, much to the chagrin of Steve.

I want to “accidentally” spill an entire pot of tomato sauce on someones blackberry.

I want to short oil stocks, while laughing all the way to the bank.

I want to cry at a comedy show. I want to laugh at a funeral.

I want to buy a car from a GM dealership, then return it 5 times.

I want to host a seminar in a black ski mask.

I want to disappear from the internet, unannounced, for an undisclosed amount of time.

Finally, I want to go on a job interview with a tie that reads “fuck you, you’re dead.”

I hear a lot of intelligent folk telling dumb ol’ country people to “buy the beaten down sectors,” in order to take advantage of the pending “January run.” First, I don’t believe the market will run in January. Second, for the sake of playing devil’s advocate, I need to get an opinion in edgewise—if I may interject into your foolish train of mind numbing thought.

Thank you.

If you take the advice of some of these “smart folk” you may end up with a bag of flaming shit on your front porch. Are you willing to stomp it out?

Check this out: instead of buying the worst stocks in the world and gambling, like a degenerate OTB guy on heroin, why not buy good stocks?

FUCKING SHOCKER.

That’s right. You heard it here first folks—an investment professional suggesting that you own good stocks, as opposed to the biggest fucking flaming barrel of garbage available.

Rule #1 for 2009:

Quit being so fucking greedy.

Rule #2 for 2009:

Quit being so fucking greedy.

You get my drift?

So, instead of trying to “monetize” your local lender or hope and pray for a bounce in crrr-ushed oil stocks, how about a little PFE? I know the stock is dead money. But it pays a big divi (7.5%) and can make you a quick 3-5% in the month of January, providing we rip. That may sound like shit on a spindle for you gambling types; but if you can bang out 4% per month, you will be banking 48% per annum. That may not be “TIM-like,” however good— nonetheless.

Easy does it.

If you choose to go against this advice and get long beaten down names, without looking at the fundamentals, you may find yourself in a very quick “wiped out” situation, should the market swan dive in January. Remember, stocks go down big because their underlying businesses are underperforming. Due to market conditions, everything got taken to the woodshed in 2008, with the exception of a few names.

Now is the time to roll up your sleeves and find some value, instead of just throwing darts at 2008’s bounce plays. Get to work, you lazy double upside/downside etf trading monkey.

If you are looking for some names, take a look at the following stocks, by sector, courtesy of The PPT:

Basic Materials:

CVX, ABX, CEO

Consumer Goods:

ADM, TAP, PC

Financial:

TRV, AON, PBCT

Healthcare:

NVS, PFE, AZN

Industrial Goods:

ABB, PH, ITW

Services:

APOL, RCI, MCD

Technology:

DCM, NTT, HPQ

Utilities:

CWT, SJI, WTR

Tomorrow I will post an organized set of potential short sales, broken down by sector, courtesy of the ever mysterious, yet Godly, PPT.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4W5bEw1PJU&feature=related 450 300]

I’m not this great ol’ grizzly bearshitter that I make myself out to be. Deep down, I want to turn on my fellow bears and “give them the bayonet.” However, if I did so, I’d be sure to wear a handsome mustache, while holding a musket.

My year is pretty much over. My gains will be north of 60%, down from 80%+. Sometime tonight or tomorrow I will write a year end review.

Not too deep down, I am tempted to allocate cash into beaten down sectors, like oil/gas and banks. Shit, for the love of fried rice and chicken grease, I could buy a shit load of “cheap” stocks here and seemingly set myself up for a a monstrous January run.

Presently, market participants are dying to jack prices higher, since most of them are obsessed with “market miracles” and finding “good values.”

But, I have held back from buying anything, for fear of a sharp January surprise to the downside, based upon dismal retail sales data and weak jobs data. Also, I am very afraid to get long stocks ahead of any economic data.

Also, Obama’s stimulus plan will not add to the economy. It will simply fill the holes left on a loca/state level, with regards to infrastructure.

Today’s action was neutral. The bears took it to the bulls early on, but lost the late day battle.

In closing, I have hardly any long positions left, less than 10%. I still hold an enormous amount of inverse etf bullshit and a variety of scattered shorts. Over the next two days, I will reduce my inverse etf exposure by 10% and look to add one or two long ideas, in order to hedge my shorts—going into the new year.

Top picks: short KIM, short VNO

Poof. This late day rally shit is over.

-Merlin