Worst Case Scenario

Unfortunately, today is playing out exactly as I expected: bad. Over the weekend, it was nice to see gold/silver/oil shoot through the roof. Most of my holdings are in those sectors and it made sense that I’d make a small fortune when the market opened for trade. My fears that the stocks would deviate from the commodities has been realized, as investors race for the exits, dying for liquidity. Oil could be up $50 right now and my APC would still be down. The only way to profit from this fucking disaster is to be long the commodities directly.

Early on, things looked peachy. But, it doesn’t look so fucking peachy anymore. Someone needs to drop neutron bombs on the middle east, STAT!

Aside from AG and CLR, I am getting donkey punched in a variety of stocks today. My losses are plaguing me to no end. I’ve been trying to ignore them, thinking “oh, gee, golly, whiz, it will come back.” But it’s getting worse. The sacks of shit that I call investments are melting right in front of my face and here I am chatting away with you misfits, as if my brain was surgically removed from my skull.

Nonetheless, I’ve made a commitment to see this crisis through, no matter how dire and bleak things may seem to be. The majority of my holdings are in commodity related stocks, so my losses should not be as horrific as Bill Millers. Plus anyway, I entered today at all time highs. At a minimum, I should afford myself 5% wiggle room.

Off to go wiggle away.

Let’s get a few things out of the way first, discussing the obvious. The Middle East is in flux because they are living in the 1500’s, both in their forms of government and way of life. If you would like to debate the difference between human rights in western countries compared to “over there,” fuck off: I have no time for that shit.

This is what is important to know: Asian markets are reeling tonight, as transformation takes hold of the oil rich state of Libya. The greater fear, of course, is contagion.  Revolution is contagious. I would not be surprised to see demonstrations against the House of Saud. Let’s face it: monarchies are a little dated and retarded. I much prefer the song and dance that our two party system performs for us every 4 years, than the crap being “blessed by God” over there.

If you were a wealthy tycoon in Egypt, Libya or any of the countries in danger, where would you put your money? Would you leave it in your domestic currency?

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF.

Hence, the price of gold and silver are soaring, as it is the de facto currency standard of the globe, especially since the dollar has blatantly been depreciated in order to placate the whimsical machinations of Ben Bernanke.

Oil is ripping to the upside, due to the fact that 36% of global oil supplies comes from the Middle East. Should the fuckers from Saud come under assault, oil will shoot, mind you, straight to $200.

All of this is horrendous for “global growth.” In the short term, turmoil is bad for markets. However, investors will find respite in the right sectors, namely precious metals and oil.

I am not sure if I will make money tomorrow, since I have no idea how the oil sector will perform. I am pretty sure my gold/silver stocks will gallop higher. And, conversely, I am certain some of my “non-commodity” stocks will get bludgeoned.

If you notice a more serious tone to this missive it is because I have consumed over 10 cups of coffee today and feel as if I could punch a hole through a large ball of scrap metal.

It’s hard for me to give cogent advice for the week ahead, without seeing how stocks trade. Judging by the homofied action in Europe and Asia, I’d say we’re in for a helluva punch to the scrotum.

Top picks: AG, NGD, EXK, ATPG, APC, BZ

UPDATE: RETARDS of The PPT: There are many more subscribers than participants in our 3rd annual March Madness contest. This is a head scratcher for me, as I am GIVING away 1k to the winner. I realize some of you couldn’t care less about winning 1k or you are simply too badass to participate in any contests. However, we have a burgeoning 4th bracket pending and none of them will be allowed to play, unless the fucking bracket is completed. So, without further delay, this is YOUR LAST FUCKING CHANCE TO JOIN. Failure to do so with lead to your immediate mustache removal. Yes, new subs can play too, providing you leave a pick from now until  tomorrow at midnight.

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Just last week, I was endorsing the full fledged milking of the U.S. farmer, by way of buying Ag stocks. However, late in the week, I ended up selling out of all of them, including AGU, MOS and IPI.

Why?

Well, for one, I had 10%+ gains in the big ones (MOS, AGU). But the more important fact that made me reposition out of them is the hard to spot, but easy to see, rotation out of Ag into precious metals. Do not forget my basic premise behind my current investment thesis is dollar depreciation, which will lead to appreciation of “inflation trades.” The very root of the inflation trade, naturally, is alternative currencies, in this case gold/silver.

So, if you look at things through my scope, it doesn’t matter whether I am long AGU or AG. However, from a swing traders point of view, the divergence of relative strength between the two industries was too much to ignore. Gold and Silver are not just inflation hedges anymore. They are de facto currencies and will be treated as such, particularly during times of duress. As the middle east burns to a cinder, rich fuckers with circles on their heads will plow money into gold/silver.

The second pillar behind my current investment thesis is to be long oil stocks, particularly those who benefit from the premium being placed on crude that needs to be shipped. The WTI landlocked stuff is not bad. But, in my opinion, there is more upside for GOM and western Africa plays. My largest oil positions are APC and ATPG. I booked a 15% profit in KEG and will look to add to a few new names next week.

For those of you who are new to this blog and tend to take things seriously: fuck off. “The Fly” is not about religion, with regards to investment ideas. They are nothing more than letters with digits assigned to them. I am not investing in companies; but, instead, I am using them to further finance the development of the first ever orbital space cannon.

I don’t lose money in the market because I am very flexible and open minded to the fact that I may be wrong. I like to push the envelope because that’s when the big money is made. For the most part, my position size is bigger than yours, both as a percentage of total holdings and monetary size. I am bigger than you and can crush you under a barrage of sell orders, if I chose to go that route. Generally speaking, my positions are 10-15% of total assets, which makes it very easy to go to cash, if I so choose.

As for all of the other shit that makes “The Fly” a superior being, I will leave that for the imagination to decipher.

The Middle East is on fucking fire tonight, with snipers taking headshots of people menacing with candles, singing fairy tales about democracy and shit. Without a doubt, there will be a LARGE premium built into Brent Sea crude. And, there will be stupid demand for the shit coming out of the Gulf of Mexico (yeah, the place where oil flows freely, destroying the ecosystem).

So, using The PPT tools, I queries “Gulf of Mexico” in the keyword search. Then, I slapped it into a screener, looking for strength and voila!

BEHOLD (I do this shit all day. It’s what I do)

NOTE: There is no investment tool that comes close to The PPT. March Madness contest begins Tuesday.

NOTE II: There are many more GOM plays. However, I just snagged a dozen with the strongest technical readings.

I sold out of KEG earlier, above $15. Now look at it. I sold out of MOS before the “fuck you, you’re dead” silencing. And, as you know, I sold out of AGU yesterday. You can’t fuck with me. I’m too fast and my space ship will vaporize your asses UFO style.

I’m large into shares of APC, CLR, BZ, ATPG, NGD and new addition AG. I am making so much fucking money (pause), my arms involuntarily punch strangers in the face when I walk the street.

Going into the weekend, I am liking silver the most. I own EXK and AG to represent my silver interests. There is some fucked up shit going on in the silver complex, all to do with rapid dollar depreciation. Do yourselves a favour [sic] and get some. Brother Jake has been trying to warn you, not so much different than his idol Al Gore warned you of melting ice.

Check this out, I am going to make so much money in AG (pause), I’m gonna take 1/100th of the proceeds to buy my very own ninja hitman.

I booked the profit in MOS, due to today’s tragic decline in cotton and pervasive weakness in Ag.

I bought AG for the silver squeeze. And, I added to my APC and BZ positions.

UPDATE: I added to my APC and CLR positions. And, I doubled my BZ.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, the next time you are out on a “hot date” you will suffer from “erectile dysfunction.” And, you may lose money.

I sold out of my KEG, north of $15.

UPDATE: I sold out of GNK and IPI too.

Most of you know I tend to avoid holding stocks during earnings. However, when I do, more often than not, I find myself counting lots of big ugly faces, shortly thereafter.

Top earnings pick, into next week: BZ

Boise is a paper and packaging company. Once you start to learn about the market and how cycles work, you will realize that paper companies are early cycle plays. As end user demand upticks, paper companies tend to ramp up fast. It is my belief, we are still in the early phases of US expansion. As such, expect paper companies, like BZ or MERC, to handle earnings expectations easily.

Considering the strength of the market, I find no reason to sit on the sidelines. I mean, what’s the worst case scenario: you make a trade and it goes wrong? What the fuck, you never lost money before?

A great man once said: “no balls, no babies.”

With great elegance, the market sashayed back and forth today, raping bears in the process, yet again. If I bothered to ask Mrs. Fly what she thought of the stock market, whether it be today or 2008, she’d say “it’s so awesome and amazing.”

On the topic of amazing, the dirty fuckers from Muddy Waters issued another report on CCME today. Right on que, the lovely ladies from Zeroedge posted the report. Let me be clear with what I am about to say: they are criminals. I am sure their disclaimers absolve them from getting tossed inside jail; but I will not mince words. CCME gaps up today, as much as 20%. So, the dirtbags at Muddy Waters feel bad about their shorts. What to do, what to do? Hey, “I got an idea,” they declared. “Let’s write another story about how fraudulent CCME is, share it with like minded blogs and make a fortune!”

Since the report was issued today, CCME scaled back by 8%.

In other news, unlike those fuckers, “The Fly” hit new highs today, thanks to AGU, MOS, KEG, ATPG, APC, EXK and even a little BORN. To finance my IPI, CLR, APC extravaganza, I sold out of AGU. It was an easy call, despite my desire to participate in the $100 roll. I was up 12% and I own a shitload of MOS.

Essentially, this shit is easy. I had a half dozen stocks on my immediate buy list bust loose without me today, including VTG, CTCT, WEBM. Here’s a quick freebie: look towards PSUN, young man. Look towards PSUN, small pleb.