A YTD Update on My Investment Accounts

Firstly let me explain to you why you should pay attention to this post and me boasting about how great I am.

I was in professional money management for 18 years and was always the best investor of any of my peers. I have been investing, first on paper and then real, since I was 10. I had always wanted to be a stockbroker and take my crafty extremely seriously. I, I, I, I. You get the gist. The fact of the matter is, if you are reading this post — odds are I am a much better investor/trader than you. You might be able to ski better, ride on a bicycle faster, or even best me at a game of tennis — but I can out-trade you you cunts so pay attention and your lives might improve via my guidance.

I have 3 accounts that I share inside Stocklabs. Every trade is logged and tracked for pnl in a public portfolio. They are 100% transparent. Within those portfolios I have 3 focuses:

1: Day/swing trading: This is my main portfolio, the one with the most invested and it is primarily used for day and swing trading. Although I have lessened the degree of Intra day trades in 2022, it was a frantic account since 2020 — at times registering 100 trades per day. My style has shifted dramatically in 2022, leaning more on end of day positioning with hedges and opening tick harvesting. My risk is mostly mitigated by holding time. You can’t lose if you’re not exposed. That account is +46% for the year. All trades are inspired by or by using the tools inside Stocklabs. Trades rarely make up more than 5% of the overall account and losses are cut short very fast, max drawdown in the range of 5-7%.

2. Quantitative trading: I set filters on my screens for fundamentals and technicals and position once per month. Each position is equal weighted at 5%. This account had been +20% for 2022, but got clobbered last month and is now down 2.6%

3. Algorithmic mean reversion trading: This is an account that only trades when Stocklabs flags oversold. Upon the first signal, I allocate 33% of my account into TQQQ. If another OS hits inside max holding time of 5 trading days, I add another tranche until fully invested. Each purchase resets the holding time and I sell hook or crook after 5 days. That account is +15.55% for 2022.

Net value of these accounts are $925k. I started all of these accounts inside Stocklabs in late 2020 at $250k.

That’s who I am pal, and you’re nothing.

Don’t worry about the “MP”. We already have a very safe and effective vaccine.

The line earlier today outside one of NYC’s mass vax sites for monkeypox in Brooklyn. City says 1,392 doses will be given here. @Gothamist pic.twitter.com/INeYMgryEV

— Karen Yi (@karen_yi) July 17, 2022

Look at all of those totally straight men being health conscious. Today it was revealed two children contracted MONKEYPOX and the WHO declared it a public health emergency, especially in bathhouses.

There are stocks to play, stocks that profit off this new crisis emerging. SIGA is one. But we need to be vigilant and make sure the MP is truly spreading fast. We need the R factor data and assurances that everyone can get it by just walking around outside UNMASKED.

UNEVENTUFL close. I finished +2.1% for the week, 51% cash, 15% weighted LONG TZA with hopes and designs to preside over, if I might be so bold, the exact end of Pax Americana.

Upon seeing it, I will say “see, I knew it, told you so” — then proceed to drink a martini and play with my software at Stocklabs.

We have BIG THINGS planed over at the olde SL HQ. We have options and trend analyzer tools being built and these new tools will provide me with motive to enter into the options market — something I have not done in earnest since 2012.

To all longs, my condolences. You have children. Please do not drink yourselves to death this weekend.

To my bearish friends: congrats. We did it Joe. We really did it.

Thank God we can all go back to normal again, with DOWNWARD spiraling prices. Deserved. There was never a reason to go up and I am happy to report only owning TZA now — into the fires we go and into the ovens you go you bastard bulls.

You deserve everything you get, and much more. You sat there pretending the market had bottomed and now the NASDAQ is shoveling dirt onto your live corpse and there is nothing you can do about it.

It’s Friday, but it’s also over. The rally you enjoyed for the past fortnight has ended in spectacular fashion, as we circle the drain fastidiously and with vigor back down to new 52 week lows.

SNAPCHAT INC. missed estimates last night and is down a whole bunch today, -35%. Normally this would bode poorly for ze bulls and their nerd stocks, but I suspect none of that shit will matter today.

The bulls are going to keep buying stocks until someone stops them. They have the upward momentum and the cash, plus the abject indifference to risk, and would prefer to die poor than risk not playing SHOP for another 5% of upside.

I closed out all of my positions for a small gain this morning and sit with a small gain of +2% for the week. I know the market wants higher, but I’d rather not participate at this juncture.

Right out there gates we have hospitals, cryptos, and oils running higher. I suspect hospitals are doing well thanks in large part to all of the new patients the COVID vaccines sent their way.

Copper is up more than 2% today, so expect a broad based “fuck you shorts, you’re dead” type of rally.

In Stocklabs we have data doing back to 1993 for SPY and 1999 for QQQ. For July, the NASDAQ is up nearly 10% — the largest return for July on record. Perhaps the NASDAQ had a bigger month from the 1970s into the 1990s, but it wouldn’t be by much. This is, for all intents and purposes, the ceiling for risk in any given July over the past few decades.

This doesn’t mean we’re done going higher — because who really knows?

I, on the other hand, have no participated in this rally for a variety of reason — mostly due to the harsh reversals in commodity stocks and my stubbornness to expose myself to the markets. I am down 4.2% for July, an abhorrent return when juxtaposed against the NASDAQ. However terrible it may be, I am +46% for the year and could do nothing for the rest of it and still crush 95% of managers who get paid for their lackluster performance.

I do not ebb when you ebb and prefer to flow when people are ebbing. There is something alluring about being contrarian, as long as it doesn’t annihilate you during market runs.

My first mistake was not trusting the market as it went up. My second mistake will be jumping in late before a leg lower, should we get one. The best course of action is to stay small and play the margins, hedging the whole way — because, at some point, the market will bend back to my direction and I’ll be rewarded for my obstinance.

At least that’s what I tell myself at night.

I bet you piece of shits loaded up on VIX calls yesterday, hoping for a collapse today. MUHHHH the war, MUHHHHHH inflation, MUHHHHHH Biden has cancer and COVID. Meanwhile, at the office, stocks are doing nothing but go higher. The SAAS trade is back for the summer, sizzling hot, and nothing seems able, or willing, to stop it.

Now you might be thinking: “OMG but I am short. When do I get respite Fly?” You never will. The market has now priced in everything short of a Iskander missile landing in London. No matter what the news is, the market is going to like it. This is why we are going up — priced in — all of it.

For the balance of the day, expect sideways pin action and perhaps a minor CRASHING OF THE FUCKING CLOSE just to mix it up a bit — keep you on your toes. Although, I would not expect it with any level of confidence — since the path of least resistance is HIGHER.

HOWEVER, a crashing of the close would not only be nice, but also chic and classy. I do believe the excesses in the market DESERVE punishment. I am not suggesting bulls should have their hands and feet chopped off at the Catherine Wheel, and then battered with a club until ripe. But what I am hinting to is a smathering, if you will, of sell tickets to deluge the close.

That’s all. Relax. Nothing too crazy.

Absent bad news, we’re likely to run higher. Even after bad news, the market has proven it doesn’t care anymore and nothing will stand in its way of a technical rally.

This is what bulls see.

Semis are the bull favorite, especially after it was reported that Speaker Pelosi bought $5m worth of NVDA calls.

Today we have oil getting clobbered, which should allow retail to bid higher. Trying to get consistency in the oil trade has been difficult to say the least.

The path of maximum pain is higher. I know it and still fight it on emotional grounds. We are not likely to reverse lower until we get some downside surprises.

If only judging by price action, this is all very good stuff. Today the stocks most down, like CVNA and PTON, were up the most. The breadth was broad and you made money in almost any sector of the market. The underlying emphasis on this entire rally is and always has been: the economy isn’t as bad as originally expected. Ergo, stocks already down more than 70% are buys.

THIS MIGHT BE TRUE and my bearish prognostications might in turn end up falling flat faced. Let’s remember I was the one calling for the sky to fall at the depths of the COVID lows. I tell you this, not to injure myself, but to instead highlight the fact that predictions are useless and all that matters is trading results.

It’s worth noting, I ended +300% in 2020 and another +220% in 2021.

I ended the session +67bps, 37% cash, and 15% long inverse ETFs. I am not attempting to maximize returns here and this might annoy some of the Stocklabs members who mirror me. Quite frankly, fuck off. My hesitance to press the envelope and go for broke stems in the fact that this entire rally is artifice. There is nothing cogent about it and there isn’t a chance it lasts through August, let alone the balance of July.

What we have here is a classic bear market rally, a bounce. We will RETEST the lows and make lower lows by Autumn, just in time for the Jack O Lanterns and browning of the leaves.

Late last year I announced to much consternation my desire to liquidate my entire ETH position, which I started in late 2019 in the $100s. The response from mostly everyone who commented was “enjoy staying poor.” The reason why I waited for 2022 was to avoid a tax gain for 2021. This turned out to be a disastrous idea and my strategy to sell in 12 parts, once per month, over the course of 2022 has resulted in LESS THAN IDEAL exit points.

Nevertheless, it is what it is and I will not deviate from my plan.

Folks often ask me my opinion about ETH, as if I knew anything at all about the future pricing of the crypto. I haven’t the slightest idea.

But what I can tell you is this recent downturn has illuminated certain truths about BTC-ETH. For one, it is not an inflation hedge. For two, it trades in lockstep with other risk assets. In other words, there isn’t a negative correlation feature to the sector, unless of course you take seriously the dollar/BTC cross. If you do, then the dollar’s rise is certainly something that might’ve hurt cryptos, although I seriously doubt any of the incels in the crypto community truly view it as an alternative store of value.

It is a risk asset. Markets have been up as of late, so naturally ETH is leading the way — higher by 38% in the past month.

If you are bullish on stocks, own ETH. If you think stocks are heading lower, do not own it.

As for me, I am bearish, but have been known to be wrong on macro calls, so I will stick with my once per month liquidations until the entirety of my position is gone.