Quick Update: The iBC Game

Hey everybody, this is Jeremy (iBC admin) filling in for Fly. As I’m sure you know, Mr. Le Fly is busy celebrating his birthday.

Anyway, the iBC game is coming along. I’ve hooked up some basic functionality on the front page of iBankCoin in the sidebar, detailing the $ (denominated in iBankCoin Reserve Notes) earned by everyone thus far (everyone that has signed up for an iBankCoin account and contributed posts/comments to the site since the announcement of the game, that is). The game is still in its infancy, but I would encourage people to start hoarding iBankCoin Reserve Notes immediately; as the game matures, you will find said notes to be indispensable in financing hostile takeovers against other players (yes, you will be able to victimize one another), purchase egregious in-game items — all sorts of fuckery. It should be quite the spectacle. At present you earn $ (iBC Reserve Notes) as follows:

+500 for a blog post
+100 for first comment on blog post
+25 for leaving a comment on a blog post
+$5 for each “thumbs up” to your comment
-$5 for each “thumbs down” to your comment
+$1 For each view of your post

(As an aside, iBankcoin crew get an addition $500 for each blog post, $250 for each news post. Also, there is an “arbitrary income” aspect whereby “The Fly” can impose fines for misconduct and “executive bonuses” at his discretion.)

One other thing to note is the hierarchy. It’s modeled after a typical investment banking totem pole, with MD on top, Sr. VPs below that, and trainees on the bottom. Naturally, the more money you have the higher up you are on the iBC totem pole. The “prisoner” section at the bottom is iBankCoin’s debtor prison, where those who have disgraced themselves are paraded as examples of great public shame.

Anyway, as always, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. The game is still in its infancy, so if you have an idea for the game (e.g., “I think players should be able to mug each other”) kindly let us know.

The market is acting stupid again. But I am not going to complain. As you know, today is my 36th birthday and I am running out of time on this here blog. The cut off age for reading iBankCoin is 47.5, so I need to enjoy the time I have left here.

I am not going to complain about how “stupid” the market is because markets are not stupid, just the people playing them. So, let’s think this through, shall we?

Is a Greek exit from the Euro imminent? Seriously, should we be worried about the election results in June and prepare for a real fucked up Mad Max scenario? Or, will the central banks, yet again, kick the can down the road. This distinction means everything.

Moreover, being that China’s growth has slowed dramatically (as intended by their policies), is the risk now betting against Chinese stimulus at a fresh high? Meaning: people have been shitting on China for years now. And, frankly, their growth has been less than impressive in recent months. Will the Chinese step in and cut rates and/or launch a stimulus missile?

If so, anything related to China will soar. Industrials and basic resource names should be accumulated now, in anticipation of that news.

I think everyone is too bearish. I also think too many people are expecting a full fledged rout of the euro. Whenever things seem obvious, shit happens and the once obvious becomes absurd, shortly after the fact.

For now, I am holding onto my longs and will be looking at basic resource names, anticipating the Chinese to step in one of these weekends with surprise clawhammers to the faces of those betting against it.

NOTE: With natural gas under $4, coal is in the “do not buy zone” thanks to displacement. I would not touch debt laden coal names until natty spikes.

Once again, the bears got mugged on a day when they were supposed to do the mugging. This afternoon, I was cornered at gunpoint, by a burlap’d bandit, then separated from my money and jewels. As the assailant made his way into the escape vehicle, about 3:30 pm, I flashed my Desert Eagle on him, took my shit back, and relieved him of his chain.

Basically, that’s what the market has been reduced to. Somebody is getting robbed on a daily basis. Damn straight it’s not gonna be me.

For the day, I was up another 0.6%, putting my year to date gains just under 5%.

Yes, today was bullish as fuck. My beard is thick and my demeanor bitter, one day before my birth date. Tomorrow will be the day the bears lose their Nike Air Jordans and goose down coats–a gift of sorts from the stock Gods to Senor Tropicana.

Watch it.

The rally died on the spot. Nothing is sticking, not even AAPL or silver. My life, as currently constructed, is imbued with curses. I get to play this game on a daily basis and throw fits of stark raving mad rage.

Now as I write this, naturally, the market is climbing back up. However, I am writing this to remind myself to NEVER, EVER, EVER enjoy trading stocks again. I must take a disdainful approach to this job, similar to Obama’s position towards promoting alternative energy. I will feign interest and let people think that I like stocks; but deep down, I will fucking hate them. I will subscribe to the Wall Street Journal, just to spit on it in the morning. I will draw mustaches on the faces of famous CEO’s and frame them to be placed on my office walls.

I will mock the mockers and kill the killers.

If you are a young man, looking to get into the field of professional money management, think again. Invest in stocks ONLY as an avocation. You are much better off becoming a sanitation worker or furniture delivery man, than fuck around with European debt crisis laden minefields.

Sadly, dicks will be cut off and the guillotines are chasing me. “The Fly” might have to get into his fucking space capsule and seek refuge in the milky way. There are people and interests who seek to destroy me. Aside from stocks, the House of Fly has been under continued assault, with intent of humbling. I’ve been defending my position with great fervor and with owlish wisdom. But the imperious forces against me are growing stronger and I am tiring through attrition.

It is my God given right to luxury and to project my thoughts in stentorian tones. The rakish demons who plague me shall understand the scale of my fondness and ardor for winship. Either I end up triumphant or 6 feet deep, resting inside of coffin shaped after a fucking pineapple.

NTAP is coming off its lows. I haven’t bought that stock in years; but fuck is that stock cheap now. At these levels, both IBM and ORCL will be looking at them, scratching chins and brains, contemplating a bid.

Europe is running with its shoes off. According to the textbook of BEAS, the market should follow through and rip ham off asses today. On a separate note, FB seems to have caught its footing. Unlike many gorillas in the blogosphere, I don’t mind owning FB here, at least for a trade. There was so much retail carnage in this fucker, I would not be surprised to see it trade back to $38. You know it’s gonna happen. Get on the “Zuck Truck.”

Gold and silver look great, as well as the social media sector. On the eyes of Ulysses, if YELP doesn’t take out $19 today, I am going to punch holes through the office sheetrock.

Slow things down for a minute. Greece can wait. We need to make some fucking money now.

UPDATE: THE FUCKING WINSHIP MACHINE HAS BEEN DELAYED, LIKELY CANCELED. FUCK MY LIFE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwky6LIL-_I

Naturally, the meeting resulted in a bunch of nothingness. Hollande wants eurobonds to finance future growth projects and Merkel, the German bitch, said nein. I am so sick of hearing the word “GREXIT”. It’s a fucking smug thing to say and reeks of schadenfreude. If you find pleasure in seeing the pain of others, you are undoubtedly without top hat. I’m no longer interested in problems; but keenly looking for solutions.

Post summit, futures are barely changed and Asia is flat. This is very encouraging. Make no mistake, today’s reversal was epic in nature and could lead to a string of up days. On the flavour of delicious caspian tiger entrees, God knows I need it.

Into an upswing, I am zoned in on silver. According to The PPT, both EXK and AG correlate best to an oversold market. Hence, I am long in size. However, they are just trades and I will kick them out for 10% gains whenever they reach desired levels.

Also, the dollar is flagging OB, always an accurate flag by the 12 mo algorithm.

What goes up when the dollar comes down?

Answer: everything.

Hypothetically, let’s say the record amount of dodo birds shorting the euro get caught flat-footed in a bull stampede, based upon a surprise Chinese rate cut or some rumors of euro-bonds, how do you think commodity related stocks will respond to a 5% move higher in the euro?

Answer: they will rip the fucking faces off everyone who is balls to the wall short.

Please humor me and have a look at some commodity related stocks, that have been bashed to pieces over the past month–with industry leading ROE ratios.

On the ankles of Achilles, I will accumulate monstrous positions in one or two of those names, providing the rally gets legs. I intend to swap out of my precious metals, the rest of my old man stocks and liquidate one or two tech names to buy the blood. Not only will I buy the blood, I will drink and bathe in it. I will congeal it to be used as candles inside of my fucking castle.

Part of my strength is the ability to surround myself with intelligent people. For those of you living in 0hio, regrettably, that is an impossibility. However, living in the financial capital of the world, I get to meet some smart people–people who know things.

I met “The Devil” a long time ago, many, many moons. He gave us some ideas and they all panned out, exactly as he said they would. His win rate became so absurd, so incredulous, I nicknamed him “The Devil.” I had no reason to believe he was not “The Devil”; hence, the nicknamed stuck.

During the course of today’s trading session, “The Devil” and I were bouncing text messages back and forth.

Have a look.

Now his name is revealed!

In case you didn’t notice, the Dow closed 6.66 points lower today.

In short, we’re going the fuck higher people. Get your space helmets ready.

I can’t wait for the markets to crash. I dream of crashes and accidents, generally people losing all of their money and dying from starvation. I just can’t accept the fact that other people have made money, on the long side, these past 3 years. The market was supposed to go straight to zero in 2009, until those crooks at the Fed bailed everyone out and made things better again.

I remember when my neighbor told me how his 401k was so low he couldn’t retire. That made me happy. But after the fucking Fed and “The Bearded Clam” did QE, sending the markets up again, he was able to retire and move down to Florida. WTF? Much to my surprise, instead of losing his house in foreclosure, he was able to sell it at a profit! I bet he has tons of credit card debt, lol.

We all know the US is next. We are Greece, but in 2,3 maybe 10 years. The Chinese are taking over everything and all we have left are fucking golf courses and banksters. I bet the bastards from JPM will give themselves some pretty fat bonuses this year.

That’s alright. The Germans will make everything right, again. They are the only ones who get it. Every single country in the world is wrong, EXCEPT Germany. They will not let the socialists in France dictate policy and they will force austerity on the European people, especially Greece. The good times are over. It’ time to hunker down and get your priorities in line. Most of the people I know just want to kick the can down the road. I believe it’s better to deal with the root issue now than have my grandchildren do it. If you don’t have the money, don’t spend it!

It’s gonna be bad for awhile, maybe 5 to 10 years. Unemployment will hit Great Depression levels and the market will be smoked. Most banks will trade down to zero and most pension funds will have to break contract. But, finally, I WILL BE PROVEN RIGHT. And, to top it off, I may make some money in the process, through my short positions.

Some of you newer investors look at the market and wonder why it’s going lower, so dramatically. The answer is very simple: monetary policy is wrong, especially in Europe. At the present, nominal GDP in Europe is contracting, as well as employment, asset prices and sentiment. There is capital destruction on a historical scale, yet the ECB feels it is appropriate to keep rates at 1%.

Europe is heading towards depression, brought on by massive deflation.

When deflation hits, prices drop, bonds and safe haven currencies soar. Look around you. How’s everything but oil? What is TLT, UUP and German bunds doing? Last I checked, German 2 yr yielded 0.0%, yet demand is at an all-time high.

If the Fed and the ECB allow the deflationary vortex to take hold, you will see a frightening economy. It will be full retard to the downside trading action. I am talking about 300-500 points at a clip, until we settle at around Dow 5,000. Many of you are still fighting inflation. You’ve been so brainwashed by people like Peter Schiff and others that you sincerely believe the dollar is going to zero and we are heading down the path of Zimbabwe.

You’re delusional.

All of the money that has been printed has been absorbed into the system and is being destroyed. Money supply is falling and we need more stimulus. We have no choice but to ease, quantitatively, until asset prices cause a ripple effect towards a path to economic prosperity.

What is the alternative? Would you rather take a dog-brained approach to this and get austere, like Europe, cutting spending into the fucking ground? Look at what is going on there! They are cutting spending as GDP falls. Then GDP falls some more, leading to even more cuts. It’s a never-ending loop to oblivion.

This is fact: Germany needs to be removed from the European Union. The EU doesn’t need those fucking barbarians. Without Germany they can issue Euro-bonds and save the fucking continent. With German austerity, bank runs, riots, soaring unemployment, global crisis and depression will be the end result.

Once Germany is removed from the EU, the mark will explode, fucking German exports, leading to a win for the allied powers, yet again.

Fuck Germany.

I’m going to keep my thoughts focused here.

I am incredibly glum and regret, very deeply, buying into this headfake. My choices were made out of hubris and desire, instead of logic.

Here are the headwinds:

The Facebook ipo is a disaster. Moreover, it’s an ongoing disaster that will likely get worse.

Morgan Stanley is viewed in a negative light because of Facebook. Due to the 25% allotment to retail in the offering, main street is pissed the fuck off and sentiment for the market has plunged, literally because of the Facebook offering.

Our best bank, JPM, is one giant question mark. They fucked up and no one knows the true damage.

Europe is more of a mess now than ever before. After tanking last year due to Greece, until a bailout was reached, everything has been undone with one simple election.

Aside from Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy hang in the balance.

The basic resource sector, once the best way to play reflation, has been ravaged beyond repair.

Our largest producer of natural gas provider, CHK, has a degenerate gambler as a CEO, who was running a fucking hedge fund on the side, as his stock price tanked.

For the most part, all high flying tech stocks have corrected, some very severely.

Our employment data is not improving fast enough.

A giant tax hike looms for us in 2013, if they are not extended before the end of 2012.

The global debt bubble is getting bigger and bigger and bigger and will pop one day–but no one knows when.

Go away in May

Here are the tailwinds:

Apple.

Ben.