I’m going to keep my thoughts focused here.
I am incredibly glum and regret, very deeply, buying into this headfake. My choices were made out of hubris and desire, instead of logic.
Here are the headwinds:
The Facebook ipo is a disaster. Moreover, it’s an ongoing disaster that will likely get worse.
Morgan Stanley is viewed in a negative light because of Facebook. Due to the 25% allotment to retail in the offering, main street is pissed the fuck off and sentiment for the market has plunged, literally because of the Facebook offering.
Our best bank, JPM, is one giant question mark. They fucked up and no one knows the true damage.
Europe is more of a mess now than ever before. After tanking last year due to Greece, until a bailout was reached, everything has been undone with one simple election.
Aside from Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy hang in the balance.
The basic resource sector, once the best way to play reflation, has been ravaged beyond repair.
Our largest producer of natural gas provider, CHK, has a degenerate gambler as a CEO, who was running a fucking hedge fund on the side, as his stock price tanked.
For the most part, all high flying tech stocks have corrected, some very severely.
Our employment data is not improving fast enough.
A giant tax hike looms for us in 2013, if they are not extended before the end of 2012.
The global debt bubble is getting bigger and bigger and bigger and will pop one day–but no one knows when.
Go away in May
Here are the tailwinds:
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Ben.
Look at all the bad shit you enumerated, which is already out there, and look at where we are.1100? Nope, 1316. That’s kinda amazing actually. We’re going much higher. I said it before, might as well think that because the alternative is we’re all dead so fuck that. Bearshitters need to be careful what they wish for.
Oh, and pardon me for not allowing some idiot to type “first”.
FIRST!!!
Now the good new.. All news flow is horrible and yet we are still at 1300
Pretty amazing.. I think a rally in here is coming and will have everyone leaning the wrong way
Thoughts?
I already said that so I guess i agree.
That’s the bad news. We are elevated with lots of room for a washout.
Why would you wash out when the bad news is already out there? I don’t see it happening.
The indices are misleading. I have lost a lot of fucking $ during this pullback and a crash would kill my account.
They are called “stops” for a reason. Use them.
Damn that scale is lopsided, looks like we might need a couple more tailwinds…starting with those May people to come back
NOTE: The ban on “Boost” has been lifted.
Sin no more.
I hope that Dork appreciates your kindness after the smack talk.
Last I checked shorting was still legal. So until they outlaw it..sell the rips if that’s what is paying.
I truly thought that when Cramer started taking about a run on Euro banks, we’d seen a bottom. He’s always a contrarian tell, and it truly looked that way, yesterday. Still hopin’.
How depressing.
the only thing u left out was a Keynseian President whose birthplace remains controversial.
Keynesian
You mean Kenyan…
lol
Keynesian Kenyan!
He’s from Kenya and both his mother and grandmother were CIA.
Google it.
I am aware. Just thought I would leave it out.
You must admit Sir Fly that It is rather funny he is a Keynesian Kenyan!!! lol
Sorry fly, but I think you nailed it here. It’s gonna take a capitulation to flush all of that out I’m afraid. I was hoping a little more bounce before the roll, but since a lot of the headwinds are just “happening again”, I expect it will happen much faster this go around. We need capitulation immediately followed by uncle Ben firing up cocaine blunts to get this party started. Protect capitol mode for me.
this makes it sound even worse — Greece Propped Up http://www.cnbc.com/id/47513542
JPM ??? — in addition to the latest shenanigans, there’s still the matter of the $1.5Billion that Jamie “I never met a mirror I didn’t love” Dimon, pilfered from MF Global’s margin call in their death throes. The problem — the $1.5B was $$$ from clients’ segregated accounts. I can only hope that JD and the lech Corzine become the hershey highway for some Bubba who really needs covets their Ass-etts.
All we need is the bear hunt video to make the night compleat [sic].
If the new Greek PM doesn’t learn his role, then why won’t $GS and the others throw his ass out like they did the previous PM and Berlusconi?
You don’t think stupid shit like “democracy” is all of a sudden going to get in the way?
wonder how much exposure Dimon has to Europe? Greece?
JPM has huge bet on Greece bailout/recovery. Google it.
Told you China bitched slapped Iran at the last Meeting. Looking for a six month delay in Sanctions out of the meeting tonight, imho. Also, Fly, I have been killed by this QEing market and never lost my crazy happy smile. Game is always fun even when it takes razor blades to one’s face. Some stupid clam could come in and mess up my nice downtrend..even though this may be my perfect storm?
There’s the nymph idiot with all her expert commentary.
And some other notes:
$MS has been dog shit for two years now. Nothing to see here.
$WFC is our best bank, not $JPM.
$FB ipo means dick in the long run unless you are an early investor in Twitter or some other as of yet released social media ipo.
Agree about Aubrey at $CHK. I’ve been warning folks in the ppt about that asshole ever since I joined.
The global debt bubble has been on the verge of popping ever since I was a wee lad.
Hunker down, let the bears have their normal summer fun, then get ready to rip their fucking faces off… Again.
Nicely said Mr. Pimp.
Apple a tailwind? You are really grasping at straws trying to find a second tailwind other than Bendover Ben.
How can you not acknowledge apple as a plus!?
Are you living on earth?
And don’t get me started on Ben. He is the driving catalyst for stocks
our employment data wont be getting better anytime soon
http://economics.mit.edu/files/1474
headwind: obama rate hike in term two. #markmywords
Apple was a tailwind that’s now becoming a headwind. It’s chart for the last two weeks looks more like a flying duck full of buckshot looking for a place to land than a hot stock.
I fully agree with you on Ben, the question is whether the Fed still has any mojo left in it to save O.
Apple’s continued upswing was prolonged over time as they offered the iPhone in new countries.
That’s pretty much done now. They’ll get rolling renewals but the blowout every quarter is over.
Oh, and Android now outsells iPhone.
No kidding a $19 phone outsells a $199 phone. Android is an OS, not a phone, and is on hundreds of shit boxes that any gringo can buy from Boost Mobile.
Black bear pjs on. Popcorn ready
That said, there are 2 pomos tomorrow. Don’t know why but everyone be wary of whiplash
Great summation, but let’s not kid ourselves- unemployment has not been improving. The feds simply drop more people off the rolls and declare them out of the labor force.
The baby boomers are dying off, finally. The sooner we get rid of those deadbeats the better.
^this
I’d be happy if they just got the fuck out if the workforce.
baby boomers retire at 1% of the workforce per year? If that’s the case the next 15 years will have us at a labor participation rate under 50%. This is obviously not the case
Really starting to look bad . I understand Germany’s position , but if something definitive doesn’t come out of Europe by Friday then our markets will take a severe
hit .
We are facing a generational game changer .
Ummm, You can STILL listen to Michael Buble music on YouTube for free….The glass is half full!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVMXzDnvKKo
we have lost r way.some forget its the 99% that make life as we know it posible,http://youtu.be/UAJHp89BInE
ok, 50% of the 99%ers. lol
Corporate expenditure slowdown coming up in full speed.
Where’s the happy little tire swing?
I’ve got it!
I need to make titles that make me instantly want to respond.
“could it possibly get much worse”
I instantly thought YES, and wanted to respond. That is a good title.
FLY,
That “note” format was the best summation I have seen you write to date. No doubt you NAILED IT!!
FB= DISASTER of EPIC proportions I warned everyone that asked me about it to stay far way and just buy APPLE on big dips.
I made 300% on JPM puts in a WEEK and closed them out not far from the low Monday. Will reenter that trade if that flying pig gets over 36.75 again. DIMON is so fucking overrated, I know they “navigated” through 2008 because they had the priceless inside Fed info (I would have made 250% instead of losing 20% if I had the fed scoop from 1/2008-5/2009) That OVERRATED Dimon is Greek as was his prop desk trader.
I don’t have the time or room here to go on but GOOD SHIT FLY!!!! Keep it up. Europe will rally massively when Germany finally is turned off by that Med flavored dildo up there ass and its no longer Euro kinky anymore (EURO BONDS!!!) PRINT and PRINT some more. Euro to $1.10 makes a BMW cheaper for the welfare American on food stamps