Assessing the Field of Battle

By – – 71 Comments

The market is acting stupid again. But I am not going to complain. As you know, today is my 36th birthday and I am running out of time on this here blog. The cut off age for reading iBankCoin is 47.5, so I need to enjoy the time I have left here.

I am not going to complain about how “stupid” the market is because markets are not stupid, just the people playing them. So, let’s think this through, shall we?

Is a Greek exit from the Euro imminent? Seriously, should we be worried about the election results in June and prepare for a real fucked up Mad Max scenario? Or, will the central banks, yet again, kick the can down the road. This distinction means everything.

Moreover, being that China’s growth has slowed dramatically (as intended by their policies), is the risk now betting against Chinese stimulus at a fresh high? Meaning: people have been shitting on China for years now. And, frankly, their growth has been less than impressive in recent months. Will the Chinese step in and cut rates and/or launch a stimulus missile?

If so, anything related to China will soar. Industrials and basic resource names should be accumulated now, in anticipation of that news.

I think everyone is too bearish. I also think too many people are expecting a full fledged rout of the euro. Whenever things seem obvious, shit happens and the once obvious becomes absurd, shortly after the fact.

For now, I am holding onto my longs and will be looking at basic resource names, anticipating the Chinese to step in one of these weekends with surprise clawhammers to the faces of those betting against it.

NOTE: With natural gas under $4, coal is in the “do not buy zone” thanks to displacement. I would not touch debt laden coal names until natty spikes.

Posted by The Fly on Friday, May 25, 2012 at 8:57 am 
Filed under Headlines· Tagged with

Previous Posts by The Fly

71 Responses to Assessing the Field of Battle

Brewster says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:01 am

“debt laden coal names”…I don’t know if I would touch any coal names right now. Even the well capitalized ones are in the shitter. Which sucks for me, as I am long $ANR….

Reply
JDK says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:13 am

Fly –

What do you think about Freeport? Does that fit your profile for a resource name? I hope the Chinese get their shit together so FCX can rape faces. I’ve slowly been building (what I feel is a value position) when it dips in the 31s. That also puts the yield over 4% (for the long term people)

Reply
Gent says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:19 am

Blaaaaack swaaaan!! To much bullshit going on all over the world we are bouncing between crisis euro, china, usa. When does the dollar become a problem because of valuation? Didnt oblahblah want an export boom hmm thats not going to work out. My guess is that when the coordinated cb intervention comes the half life will be 1 week before its shown to be not enough. Fly throw a fuckin party at your place order some escorts and pass out on your lawn naked to be woken up by the lawn sprinklers!!

Reply
401ker says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:21 am

What are you buying yourself for your birthday? Get a Ferarri and you can speed down the AC expressway with a police escort!

Reply
Tutti says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:25 am

H/B & thanks for the daily laughs.

Greece leaving the Euro is entirely possible. In 1982 during the latin american currency crises, mexico defaulted (which accordingto ray Dalio no one thought a possibility) and caused a massive…RALLY.

Everyone believes or assumes that the greeks leaving the euro means trouble. The market always does what hurts the most amount of people.Who knows???

Reply
xxxhuggiebearxxx says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:27 am

Happy birthday Dr. Do you feel, deep in your hardened, battle scarred heart, that the market will reward you on this here glorious day?

Reply
Mike says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:27 am

Happiest of Birthdays Senor Fly!! 36 huh?? I remember when I was 36…drank too much Canadian Club and chased alot of pussy (none of which my first wife appreciated!!)….ahhhhhh those were the days!!! Hope yours is a great one!!

Reply
danny says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:37 am

Happy Birthday Fly. We love having you around to spice things up. Hope you have a great day and enjoy many more into the future.

Reply
surplusdroids says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:45 am

Best wishes Senior T. Tonight I shall raise a glass of scotch and toast to a victorious year for you and yours.

Reply
J says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:48 am

I’m with you on this one, Fly. Everyone is much too bearish. The CB’s will eventually get it and push out the mullah.

The US economy is slow, seems to have okish momentum, but not enough to get the Kenyan elected and therefore see Romney in the white house. All good.

Reply
illmighty says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:50 am

Sugar-free cake for you today? I’d go for a Fly B-day rally today to carry into next week. Good day to you Sir Fly!

Reply
DrJ_MD says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:54 am

Happy B-Day Fly! Hope it’s a great one filled with never-before-seen profits and clawhammers to the faces of many bearshitters, for sport.

Reply
TraderRick says:
May 25, 2012 at 10:16 am

Fly, Enjoy your day!

My informant says Grexit scheduled for June 2nd 2012 but as we know things don’t always go as planned.

Reply
TheArtist says:
May 25, 2012 at 10:20 am

Buy yourself a Class A Audiophile stereo system for this B-day with some Tannoy or Joseph Audio speakers and enjoy some beautiful sounding music in the new house.

Reply
Dog says:
May 25, 2012 at 10:32 am

Happy Birthday!

I’m sure there are folks older than 47.5 reading this site. I can’t believe I only have 6 years left…LOL

Reply
The_Real_Hmmm says:
May 25, 2012 at 11:18 am

Happy Birthday Fly. I will arrange a reservation for you and your wife in a palace with the finest accoutrements. I’m thinking something from the 16th century. The driver of the time traveling calash will be instructed to have his steel horses (no Bon Jovi) “not graze a single fucking star” and cause turbulence.

Reply
lapens says:
May 25, 2012 at 12:30 pm

Happy birthday from all the way down in Tasmania, Fly (I dare you to look that one up!)

Pleasure reading your blog as always.

Reply
JTU says:
May 25, 2012 at 12:56 pm

Based on the laws of Le Fly and at the risk of being banned, I hate to admit it but I am 57!!!
Happy Birthday Fly!
You have wide appeal!

Reply
fomoiri says:
May 25, 2012 at 1:37 pm

Not giving a shit about being banned, I ask WTF is so dramatic about 47.5 or, maybe it’s just a guilt laden perception that under 47.5 one has no understanding of the value of experience and ethics.

Reply
Trading_Nymph says:
May 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm

Fly, Happy Birthday!!!! 36 was a very important year for me. That was the year I said hey I have enough money, Morgage is done..screw this practice of law stuff, good bye monkey suit…I am retiring to go find my life passion. Who the fuck would have thought it would be this, lol. May you have amazing insights in your 36th year of life. But, please don’t retire..its hard to find fellow stock junkies. But, fwiw, it is fun to say I retired at 36 to someone that is still in the Monkey Suit.

Reply
The Hammer says:
May 25, 2012 at 4:04 pm

Happy Birthday, Monsieur Le Fly! May you have many, many more! And thanks for this incredible site – informative, thought-provoking, and funny like no place else on these here intrawebs.

Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Major US US Futures Europe Asia Commodities 2yr Euro Yields 10yr Euro Yields Oil
  • DOW 15,354.40 0.80%
  • NASDAQ 3,498.97 0.97%
  • S&P 500 1,667.47 1.03%
  • VIX 12.45 -4.74%
  • SPX 500 (CFD) 1,665.90 -0.01%
  • DOW (CFD) 15,345.00 -0.06%
  • NASDAQ 100 3,025.10 -0.13%
  • EURUSD 1.283 -0.05%
  • UK 6,723.06 0.53%
  • GERMANY 8,398.00 0.34%
  • FRANCE 4,001.27 0.56%
  • SPAIN 8,582.40 0.47%
  • H. KONG 23,082.70 0.17%
  • JAPAN 15,138.10 0.67%
  • KOREA 1,986.81 0.79%
  • SHANGHAI 2,282.87 1.38%
  • NAT GAS 4.10 -0.24%
  • GOLD 1,453.60 -0.60%
  • SILVER 23.76 -0.77%
  • COPPER 3.19 0.32%
  • FRANCE 2YR 0.19 -10.90%
  • GERMAN 2YR -0.03 -314.29%
  • ITALIAN 2YR 2.18 27.59%
  • SPAIN 2YR 2.81 8.21%
  • FRANCE 10YR 1.86 -0.96%
  • GERMAN 10YR 1.33 -0.38%
  • ITALIAN 10YR 3.90 -2.04%
  • SPAIN 10YR 4.21 -2.35%
  • WTI 96.02 0.90%
  • BRENT 104.72 0.00%
  • WTI/BRENT 8.70
  • 321 CR SPR 21.96 10.04%