The market is acting stupid again. But I am not going to complain. As you know, today is my 36th birthday and I am running out of time on this here blog. The cut off age for reading iBankCoin is 47.5, so I need to enjoy the time I have left here.
I am not going to complain about how “stupid” the market is because markets are not stupid, just the people playing them. So, let’s think this through, shall we?
Is a Greek exit from the Euro imminent? Seriously, should we be worried about the election results in June and prepare for a real fucked up Mad Max scenario? Or, will the central banks, yet again, kick the can down the road. This distinction means everything.
Moreover, being that China’s growth has slowed dramatically (as intended by their policies), is the risk now betting against Chinese stimulus at a fresh high? Meaning: people have been shitting on China for years now. And, frankly, their growth has been less than impressive in recent months. Will the Chinese step in and cut rates and/or launch a stimulus missile?
If so, anything related to China will soar. Industrials and basic resource names should be accumulated now, in anticipation of that news.
I think everyone is too bearish. I also think too many people are expecting a full fledged rout of the euro. Whenever things seem obvious, shit happens and the once obvious becomes absurd, shortly after the fact.
For now, I am holding onto my longs and will be looking at basic resource names, anticipating the Chinese to step in one of these weekends with surprise clawhammers to the faces of those betting against it.
NOTE: With natural gas under $4, coal is in the “do not buy zone” thanks to displacement. I would not touch debt laden coal names until natty spikes.
71 Responses to Assessing the Field of Battle
A very happy birthday, pal.
Forget the market for a couple hours and trat yourself to some steak & fine wine
“debt laden coal names”…I don’t know if I would touch any coal names right now. Even the well capitalized ones are in the shitter. Which sucks for me, as I am long $ANR….
and oh yea…Happy Birthday!
H B-day, Sir Fly !
Many returns, pal.
I indadvertedly posted under Jeremy’s profile.
too funny….sure you did
Happy Birthday Petey … and many more!
What do you think about Freeport? Does that fit your profile for a resource name? I hope the Chinese get their shit together so FCX can rape faces. I’ve slowly been building (what I feel is a value position) when it dips in the 31s. That also puts the yield over 4% (for the long term people)
Happy Birthday Fly
Have a cup of hot hot coffee and 2.5″ Ribeye
Great blog and service.
Happy Birthday Fly! Hope you have a awesome long weekend.
Blaaaaack swaaaan!! To much bullshit going on all over the world we are bouncing between crisis euro, china, usa. When does the dollar become a problem because of valuation? Didnt oblahblah want an export boom hmm thats not going to work out. My guess is that when the coordinated cb intervention comes the half life will be 1 week before its shown to be not enough. Fly throw a fuckin party at your place order some escorts and pass out on your lawn naked to be woken up by the lawn sprinklers!!
What are you buying yourself for your birthday? Get a Ferarri and you can speed down the AC expressway with a police escort!
Happy B’day – Hope you have a great year ahead
H/B & thanks for the daily laughs.
Greece leaving the Euro is entirely possible. In 1982 during the latin american currency crises, mexico defaulted (which accordingto ray Dalio no one thought a possibility) and caused a massive…RALLY.
Everyone believes or assumes that the greeks leaving the euro means trouble. The market always does what hurts the most amount of people.Who knows???
Happy birthday Dr. Do you feel, deep in your hardened, battle scarred heart, that the market will reward you on this here glorious day?
Happiest of Birthdays Senor Fly!! 36 huh?? I remember when I was 36…drank too much Canadian Club and chased alot of pussy (none of which my first wife appreciated!!)….ahhhhhh those were the days!!! Hope yours is a great one!!
Happy birthday, Fly.
Happy Birthday Fly.. Hope you get a new space cannon
Birthday Greetings Senor Tropicana. May your day be fantastically profitable!
Happy Birthday, Dr. Le Fly.
The Fly is God.
Chinese growth rate was unsustainable, they needed to rein it in. Enjoy your day!
Happy Birthday Fly. We love having you around to spice things up. Hope you have a great day and enjoy many more into the future.
what about MET coal, for making steel?
Lots more birthdays, Fly. Happy one.
I double you Fly, and spot you an extra five.
The market has been rigged Nixon.
Happy 36th birthday to The Fly. Hope you have a great birthday weekend.
Best wishes Senior T. Tonight I shall raise a glass of scotch and toast to a victorious year for you and yours.
I’m with you on this one, Fly. Everyone is much too bearish. The CB’s will eventually get it and push out the mullah.
The US economy is slow, seems to have okish momentum, but not enough to get the Kenyan elected and therefore see Romney in the white house. All good.
Sugar-free cake for you today? I’d go for a Fly B-day rally today to carry into next week. Good day to you Sir Fly!
Happy B-Day Fly! Hope it’s a great one filled with never-before-seen profits and clawhammers to the faces of many bearshitters, for sport.
Happy b-day man , your young as shiz stil nice.
Felicidades Senor T!
Ave some Cake
Happy bday sir.
Feliz navidad senor Fly. Muchos nachos con queso.
Happy Birthday man. Every year is a blessing.
happy b day
congrats on website
Fly, Enjoy your day!
My informant says Grexit scheduled for June 2nd 2012 but as we know things don’t always go as planned.
Buy yourself a Class A Audiophile stereo system for this B-day with some Tannoy or Joseph Audio speakers and enjoy some beautiful sounding music in the new house.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY !! THANK FOR SHARING !!!
GREAT AGE ..AT YOUR PRIME !!
May all your Birthday wishes come true! Most of all just enjoy this day.
BTFD right here and catch up on some Melrose Place.
I’m sure there are folks older than 47.5 reading this site. I can’t believe I only have 6 years left…LOL
May your day bill filled with heavenly pleasure! Happy Birthday!
happy birthday kid.
Happy birthday, Fly, and enjoy the quality time with your close ones!
Happy Birthday Fly. 36yrs old is the age I’d pick to be, if I got to choose to be one age forever. Enjoy!
happy birthday Dr. Fly.
Happy Birthday Fly. I will arrange a reservation for you and your wife in a palace with the finest accoutrements. I’m thinking something from the 16th century. The driver of the time traveling calash will be instructed to have his steel horses (no Bon Jovi) “not graze a single fucking star” and cause turbulence.
Shit, unfortunately you need a Blackberry to make restaurant reservations in the 16th century. I’ll try to find one.
Try YELP, or OPEN
HBD. Fun fact: Due to time travel you’ve actually lived longer than 36 years.
Happy Birthday old man! Another year wiser. Best of wishes.
Nice post, Fly. Thanks. HB again.
Happy birthday, Fly! I’ll sacrifice a vagrant or two in your honor.
I kicked an old man down an elevator on Fly’s behalf!
Note: I told you to watch for a short squeeze in VRA … in progress … looking for 26 if it breaks the 20dma
How about a weekly FLY podcast?
Happy birthday from all the way down in Tasmania, Fly (I dare you to look that one up!)
Pleasure reading your blog as always.
Based on the laws of Le Fly and at the risk of being banned, I hate to admit it but I am 57!!!
Happy Birthday Fly!
You have wide appeal!
Not giving a shit about being banned, I ask WTF is so dramatic about 47.5 or, maybe it’s just a guilt laden perception that under 47.5 one has no understanding of the value of experience and ethics.
Fly, Happy Birthday!!!! 36 was a very important year for me. That was the year I said hey I have enough money, Morgage is done..screw this practice of law stuff, good bye monkey suit…I am retiring to go find my life passion. Who the fuck would have thought it would be this, lol. May you have amazing insights in your 36th year of life. But, please don’t retire..its hard to find fellow stock junkies. But, fwiw, it is fun to say I retired at 36 to someone that is still in the Monkey Suit.
Happy Birthday, Monsieur Le Fly! May you have many, many more! And thanks for this incredible site – informative, thought-provoking, and funny like no place else on these here intrawebs.
if i may be so bold and offer you this advice :
have a savy’s birthday my friend
Happy Birthday Dr. Fly, and many more to come.