MARKETS RALLY ON BOMBED OUT $GOOGL AND $MSFT EARNINGS REPORTS

So simple even a fucking moron can do it. MAXXED LONGS are feeling their oats right about now, as markets rise in the face of unimaginably horrible news. I cleared out my trading this morning, for a minor gain of +22bps. I had expected a loss of 1-2% based upon the piece of shit stocks I had in there. I was helped by an 8% position in SQQQ, which I bought in the after-hours and sold first thing the market opened.

My PERMANENT BOOL Quant account is +230bps and my YOLO account is +8.2%, due to a MAXXED long SQQQ and then quick trade in TNA this morning.

Bottom line can be best explained in the shares of TARK, which is 3x ARKK — which was +13% yesterday and +8.5% today.

Also, cryptos are rallying. Interestingly enough, according to Stocklabs seasonality, October is the best month to own BTC.

OCTOBER HAS BEEN BEST MONTH TO OWN $BTC
Via @stocklabsapp pic.twitter.com/zdAnX9c8zR

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 26, 2022

The other issue pertains to crude stocks, now at 40 year lows.

US OIL RESERVES AT 40 YR LOWS pic.twitter.com/ojw4gtlH9I

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 26, 2022

This is important because the Biden ass-clowns are releasing our reserves on a daily basis for the explicit concern of rigging prices lower. Whilst one might argue this is a good thing to suppress the price of crude due to the inflation issue. On the other hand, one might also say its reckless to do this at a time of world war pending. One might also presume by releasing the SPR into the market with the intent of having to buy it back — you might risk a nightmare scenario of NO RESERVES and forced to buy it all back with prices above $200 into your fucking face and much much more and beyond.

My previous blog was written whilst I was disillusioned by the market’s overwhelming allure of upside faggotry. Like many of you, I LEANED IN hoping for just 1 more day. I would sell at the opening tick over a large plate of eggs and smoked salmon, laughing with a mouth filled with food. Why, I might even day drink and get that warm fuzzy feeling going when content and buzzed with the sun shining through the windows and onto my pale face.

But none of that shit is happening, for after the close of trade The Google Corporation and Microsoft Inc tried and failed to match expectations, solidifying the fact that the economy is more or less doomed. It’s all fun and games up until your favorite companies dump the fuck lower on a warning.

### NASDAQ FUTS CLOWN PUNCH LOWER BY 250 ###

Responding to this, whilst out shopping with Mrs Fly for some super awesome and amazing “beach cottage” lamps, I stepped in and bought an 8% position in SQQQ. One of the faggots inside Stocklabs immediately said “BOTTOM” after I posted the buy — but of course he’s wrong and I closed +2% on that position. Due to my longs and the quality of them, even with my DRIP and SQQQ positions, I expect to BLEEEEED out by 1% by 4am. My stratagem will be to navigate the market in a way that more or less stops the bleeding and preserves my monthly returns.

Let me say another thing here.

I am fully transparent with my trades inside The Pelican Room. People see my flaws and my attributes. I am +50% for the year and I am having a hard time. Do not be fooled by people on social media who aren’t accountable for their trades and just show you their highlight reel for the effect of gaining your trust so you can join their service. I would love new members inside Stocklabs — but I’ll never shill and deceive people into thinking I am a guru with all the answers — infallible. I cannot find comfort, even with all of the resources available to me, going all in long or short. This is the type of tape that requires large cash positions, no loyalty to a bias, and extreme nimbleness. I don’t hold anything past 9:45am and that’s the way it ought to be — because opening down 200 often turns into +500 and vice versa.

The average stock is down 40% this year. Do not be discouraged by what you see and how you are feeling. I have been trading since I was 10, seriously since 16, and this is hard for me. It will get easier. But you need to be careful with dreams and theories. Throw the playbook out of the fucking window. Russia is on the verge of lighting up your city with a Tsar Bomba, courtesy of Cadaver Biden.

Another monstrous rally. Bottoms are always happening for the Permanent Bull, but they eventually do happen. Have we seen the lows for 2022?

Consider the IWM +8% for October. The only other times it went up like this was in 2014, 2011 and 2003. The following month after those rallies, the market was flat to up with strength in tech. I have no way of knowing if we bottomed or not. All I do know is I don’t want it to bottom and I’d be awfully disappointed if America skated by another catastrophe without truly suffering for it.

HOWEVER, that being said, I closed with a bullish book and bias towards heavily shorted stocks. This is probably the most long I’ve been in a week or two, so we’ll likely crack lower today, as to only amuse the Gods.

Off to tennis.

There is no man on this planet who wants to see the market down more than me. But, having said all of that and knowing the market — I could never sell short into the hole without upside hedges. This market is already down 30%. I made the bulk of my +50% returns in the beginning of the year and have been careful since then.

Why?

Because I am a professional.

But you can’t stop what is coming.

ROUBINI: STAGFLATION DEBT CRISIS COMINGpic.twitter.com/u3kpKuvDCZ

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 25, 2022

Czech had relied upon Russia for 100% of their gas imports before the war, now zero. It is unusually warm in Europe now — but that will not persist. We have a substantial problem ahead of us and Europe is going to be de-industrialized.

All that aside, markets looks great. Get ready for mashed potatoes and turkey legs.

I’m +60bps for session whilst bearish as fuck — waiting in the tall grass for fresh meat (pause).

My goal for October is to make 5%. This morning we have a wild market led higher by tech and all of the beaten down trash stocks catapulting higher.

I want no part of this ribald display of greed and lust. I’ve gone to cash and will now read a book. My quant is fully invested and will take part in any further upside ejaculation. As for me, I intend to content myself with the 60bps of gains for the session. I might nibble a bit later on, or perhaps end of session. The point is to book a solid October and not permit greed and vanity cloud my judgment.

Yes, markets look good. Currency is down, bonds up, commodities moderate, oversold tech screaming higher.

I didn’t want to admit the market was going to rise by 500, so I ended up flat for the session — giving up early gains of +95bps. These type of things happen, when you are a dynamic thinker. Those one track minded PERMANENT BULLS of course made 2% today and every other +500 point day; but they will also feel the wrath of my sharpened blade (made in China) when the worm turns and the mood darkens.

In typical American fashion, nothing matters. The scum ran prices up instead of lower and I am sitting with a loss on my SQQQ position.

Since I cannot be fooled either way, I also possess a sundry of longs and am leveraged at 108% due to my outsized SQQQ positions. That’s neither here nor there. The point here is to withstand the BOOLISH barrage and relinquish the longs into rallies but bank on there eventual demise of both Jim Biden and the US stock exchange.

Whilst this might sound like a rather curmudgeon and bleak outlook on life in general, I cannot tell you how elated and happy it makes me feel to know I am living to see the end of western finance as we know it today and look forward to the happier times to come in a caravan of armed wagons shooting at one another on the trade route.

There is a hope and a dream of a November rally — based upon seasonal factors. There are those who will point out “America loves to stuff their fat fucking faces with stocks before cranned berries” and that betting against the market in the month of November, ahead of the pagan holidays, is sacrilege. But this is stupid, since Americans do not posses an iota of religion and scatter away rather quickly when the bear comes looking for food. I suspect, and again I am only speculating here, the bear will be famished during November and will walk heavily upon the stock exchange biting off the heads of traders and spitting them into their Bloomberg terminals, whilst taking a shit atop of Goldman Sachs’ trading desk.

I see what the market is doing and I don’t like it one bit.

Whilst the $SHOP-tards are getting their brains blown out and the Chinese Burrito aficionados buried alive, there is an underlying strength in select semis and an overt strength in secular risk averse stocks, predicated off the idea that 3% divvies are interesting after all.

We have widespread bullishness in banks, especially regionals. And to be honest, all of this jibes perfectly fine in all previous bear markets I have traded in. The only issue I take with this is rates, teetering on the flat line and I think investoooors are buying divvies, Utes, and REITs ahead of a potential collapse in rates.

This is not going to happen.

Ergo, if this +300 point rally is predicated on this sole notion, when rates bust loose to the upside again — we shall be flayed alive.

Today’s rally is not constructive and should not be trusted.

Good day

It seems the war in Ukraine has escalated to the point of hysteria — where both sides are now pointing fingers at one another for concocting grandiose schemes to escalate the war into something unimaginably horrific. The Ukrainians are saying Russia is preparing pre-text to use tactical nuclear devices. Russia in an unprecedented move phoned the UK, France, Turkey, and the US to alert them that any “dirty bomb” provocations by Ukraine would result in an “uncontrollable escalation.” It’s not like the Ukrainians give a single fuck and just yesterday Zelensky ordered a fresh mobilization for all men under 60 to join the ranks and enjoy having your brains blown out by an artillery shell.

Russia is having their own problems, outmanned in some cases 10-1 on the battlefield, equally matched as far as modern equipment is concerned — thanks to the gracious lendoooooors of the United Steaks. Whilst some people might view Russia’s setbacks as constructive for world peace, I view things quite the opposite.

Since DC and London only seems to go forward and have plainly made it clear that Ukraine is not just a vassal state, but a puppet regime, Russia has no choice, whatsoever, but to engage in “total war” to neutralize the threat. Judging by previous Russian wars, this would entail the mobilization of millions of men and an escalation would take on a much more industrial capacity — one that would have to be matched by the west if they’re really serious about keeping Ukraine as part of their empire.

Ergo, and this goes without saying, the war as you see it now is most likely just getting started.

I’m bearish as fuck — long risk averse names — +71bps for the session.

It’s reasonable and rational to conclude the market has bottomed for 2022, based upon seasonal factors. Below are the annual returns for QQQ during November, courtesy of Stocklabs.

One might easily surmise the cranned berried sauce platters of gravy’d turkey and yams might place ze bears in a state of quietude, satiated with the blood and flesh he has ingested throughout 2022. But you’d be unwise you let your guard down this Thanksgiving.

I readily admit markets look constructive here and the idea of a classic November rally is alluring. But then I remind myself how over it really is and how we now have troops teeming at the Ukrainian border, salivating for blood sacrifice.

US COMBAT DEPLOYMENT ON UKRAINIAN BORDERpic.twitter.com/lcWouPW3Ui

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 22, 2022

I remind myself that Japan is paying 40% more for imports this year and their currency is absolute trash, 37 yr lows. The UK is working on their 3rd PM in the past month and the United Steaks ls led by a cadaver.

Natural Gas prices have collapsed since Russia anointed Turkey ambassador of gas to Europe and oil prices have been suppressed thanks to Bidless Biden’s efforts to save the empire from dissolution.

There are many trials and tribulations ahead and dare I suggest we have yet to see capitulation. What does it look like?

Well, for starters the permanent bull class of investor would be extinct, only leaving behind their bones for us to construct in museums for the world to gaze at in wonder. “Here are the skeletal remains of a once foolish species, the PERMANENT BULL — got wiped the fuck out CLEAN during the great fires of 2022.”

Secondly, we require a magnificent display of panic, VIX to $100 and CNBC’s transmission interrupted by the Emergency Broadcast system to announce missiles are inbound to DC.

Lastly, a total collapse of stocks like AAPL and AMZN — the last vestiges of Pax Americana.

After all of that happens, then we might be intrigued by some bargains out there.

Have a pleasant weekend.

NOTE: If curious about what capitulation looks like in literary terms, I wrote two books about my experience during the dot com blow up. Enjoy.

I was flat for the week, but my Quant was +5.2%, as markets meandered between rallies and crashes. The consensus opinion amidst the bullish camp (BRACE FOR IT) is we bottomed and will barrel higher into Thanksgiving. Bear in mind, they have been saying this all year long, the constant magnetic attraction to unchecked stupidity in the face of overwhelming evidence contrary to their beliefs.

I believe in nothing but the Black Flag. I don’t think markets will trade down — I know they will. Having said that, I am not prepared to risk too much in an environment where one day we rise 700 and the next we sink 700. You can play games with your net worth and cause your heart to malfunction. I’ll be over here hedged, waiting for this malady of a Presidency to end.

Markets will continue to crash until late 2023. Nothing will stop it, not even a Fed pivot. We have +150bps left of rate hikes and if markets trade ahead of that and ramp prices — we will be forced to hike more.

Look here, fucked face. Markets rose today — but look at what also rose today.

The Fed needs to collapse prices of goods in order to reduce CPI to a level where it can justify a pause. Every market rally is paired with reflation of commodities. Pray tell me, how can we resolve this problem?

HAGW