18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Being 70% long into today, I am enjoying the respite. After watching Secretary Lew’s testimony, I am more convinced than ever about the stupidity infecting the brains of our congress, especially the GOP.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THESE PEOPLE? I thought they were the party of big business? Now they are the party of destruction, gold bugs in the craw of the American public. I can’t take it anymore.
Look, I’d love to tell you the crisis is over. His testimony was very direct and eloquent. However, these Tea Party guys, spearheaded by hard core ideologues, ARE NOT LISTENING.
In short, enjoy the respite and take money off the table. Do not trust your local congressman to do the right thing.
I am pleasantly surprised by the ferocity by his exchange with the Jesus loving crisis deniers in the GOP. As such, futures are up even moar. HOWEVER, don’t think for a second the Tea Party cares. They want to reincarnate you.
Let me start this missive by saying the buck stops at the desk of the President. The fact that he is presiding over this without striking some sort of compromise speaks to his narcism and inability to negotiate without his teleprompter. The far right part of the GOP wants to go over the debt ceiling. After carefully analyzing these people, I can tell you they are losing control of the republican party. The moderates know they don’t have a strategy to defund Obama-care and understand how reckless it is to throw the country into a deliberate financial crisis.
But the Tea Party believes in “fighting” and “pressing on”, using such absurd platitudes to embolden the weaker links in their caucus. They believe Obama-care will destroy America. Therefore, they will destroy it on their own terms, by defunding everything and going into default.
Some of these people actually believe we will not default. They cite net revenues versus expenditures and surmise we can “wing it” until a deal is brokered. This is a preposterous way of thinking. The bottom line in all of this is dramatic economic slowdown, one way or another. As such, stocks will be marked down accordingly.
At the end of the day, Obama-care will not be defunded because the votes aren’t there. This whole mess is one big show, conducted by people who operate on emotion and haven’t thought this through. It is the result of low quality persons occupying the seats in Congress, power hungry perverts, pandering to special interests.
This market is going to hell in a hand basket. If it wasn’t for the millions of dollars lost in previous VXX trades, I’d do another one right now.
These GOP congressmen are incorrigible, unbending, and outright reckless. I understand the notion to become “financially responsible”, but doing it AT THE DEADLINE is purposeful. If the GOP really wanted to right our ship, they would’ve broached this debate months ago.
This isn’t an accident. The Tea Party folks, backed by the Cock Brothers, have planned this for years. They aren’t going to blink because they want to ruin Obama’s legacy by causing an economic crisis. Their brilliant advisers put party ahead of country. They only think about votes and that’s why we are going to default.
I’m not participating in this tomfoolery. Feel free to leave a message and if you’re lucky, I’ll find it in my black heart to reply. If not, my life will continue on an upward trajectory, unfazed by stupid governments and stock market corrections.
Later on today I will do a post about long term positions. Over the years, a slew of clients have asked for ‘good’ names to “buy and hold”, for the kids, grandkids or what have you. I happen to have a fine list of stocks, thoroughly researched, that can be shared inside of these fine halls. But it all depends on how stocks behave today. If stocks bleed lower again, my mood might become violent, filled with rage, causing me to harbour a significant amount of animosity towards the world. Under that scenario, there isn’t a chance at seeing me behave in a charitable, distinguishable manner.
Earnings season is here, by the way. That means you need to sell non-core stocks before their earnings are reported. I have a feeling there is going to be a lot of blood drawn this quarter. Looking at retail, which is the US consumer, the economy is underperforming. If you don’t have an edge, get out of the way.
Speaking of which, Dry Bulk rates are lower this morning, due to a drop in Capesize rates. However, Supramax and Panamax rates were higher, once again–which might support some share appreciation in the bulkers today. Truth be told, I am flabbergasted by the weakness in the shippers. Isn’t anyone else paying attention to the god damned shipping rates?
JOSB is bidding for MW. This small deal should remind short sellers of the amount of cash on corporate books. It’s a very dangerous game to sell short, particularly heading into Q4.
Dark clouds are overhead, in classic October fashion. The goal should be to make it through in one piece, then prepare for an unrivaled, perverted, run heading into Turkey day (gobble, gobble) and into Xmas. Better times are ahead.
After the market closed, the Obama monarch announced they’d allow Janet Yellen to be the next Fed Chief, instead of some crazy eyed democratic operative. As a result, S&P futures are up 4. Under normal conditions, I suppose this would be good news. But if you really wanted good news, the press release would’ve read: Bernanke Agrees to Another Term.
Nonetheless, I am hoping to be able to sell into any rally. I’d like to up cash to 50% and throw on some hedges for the rest. I have no business playing in this cesspool, especially since I know the true depth of it.
Let me show you some of my charts.
US sovereign credit is freezing up, olde sport. From 1 month to 3 year treasuries, yields are blowing out. That’s what you need to watch because the short end of the stick is getting it and that’s not a good thing for liquidity.
The reason why stocks are correct for selling off is because of political instability. Just like you wouldn’t trust owning a Venezuelan oil company due to their government, investors do not trust our banana republic. Even though nothing has changed on paper, everything has changed in the country. Our political system is so corrupt, so dysfunctional, it has disrupted the normal flow of business; and as a result, multiple contraction is taking place.
At the very top of my buy list is YELP, TRLA, YY, and maybe ANGI. These are great names that enjoyed momentum to the upside when times were good. But if times have changed, and the mood decidedly dour, these names and many of the high beta plays are still woefully overvalued. YELP can trade down to 15x sales and still be considered rich. Hell, if they missed numbers, it can go to 10x.
Once this is behind us, stocks will rally, which makes taking on a net short position dangerous. But, odds are, these bozos, predictably, will wait until the very last minute to get it done. As such, stocks should be sold or hedged until then.
NOTE: I reserve the right, as a gentleman investor, to change my mind at any given moment in time.
There isn’t going to be a resolution to this crisis anytime soon. It’s tempting as hell to buy TRLA, YELP, YY and others into this dip, but there isn’t a catalyst in the world that can help stocks over the next two weeks.
The Treasury Sec will offer a retarded speech on Thursday, further exasperating this crisis to the point of absurdity.
I am absorbing losses and do not have hedges. I regret listening to the lot of you about going long VXX. That being said, I appreciate your candor, albeit wrong-headed stupidity.
The time to be brave and filled with rage is not today. Tomorrow the markets shall plunge lower, forcing smiles out of our elected officials for successfully causing crisis.
There is a silver lining.
The PPT is hard at work, spitting out some signals that should be looked at. Get your shopping lists ready and prepare to buy QUALITY once the market turns. I want to stress that last point. Many of you are saddled with garbage, because that’s what has run up over the past 2 months. You don’t chase garbage down the toilet, fools. You flush it and buy the toilet instead (whatever that means). You get my drift.
He spent 1 hour antagonizing Boehner and the GOP. He offered nothing but a stiff arm, admonishing all those who oppose his will. With the GOP firmly backed by the Cock (sic) brothers and a belligerent Tea Party, I view the chances of us defaulting or going over the 10/31 funding deadline at a 100% certainty.
There is nothing redeeming about Obama during this crisis. He’s demonstrated a type of stubbornness that you’d expect from a child, or a retard.
Expect the market to be atom bombed because we have a government that is disconnected from reality.
I am about 30% cash, waiting for a reason to buy. Sad.
