The Secret Dry Bulk Bull Market

No one is talking about this phenomenon. Analysts aren’t calling these companies because “they missed the move,” something that was voiced to me by the CFO of a prominent Dry Bulker.

The BDI is up again this morning. Have a look at the 6 mo chart.

The market is barely off its highs, but you can feel the sentiment change, can’t you? It’s also worth noting, we are receiving this pain under the administration of an anesthetic, which is “temporary govt shut down.” In other words, we’re not taking the sell off seriously because it’s widely viewed to be a knee-jerk reaction to something that is fixable, and plainly silly.

Is it possible that the real costs of Obamacare are starting to get priced in? What if the anemic, pathetic, economic recovery is the root cause of the sentiment shift and not the all-to-convenient Washington impasse? I am dead serious. There is distribution taking place and this Washington scandal is the perfect cover to blow out of stocks.

Retail sales have been weak and the markets are up huge. The Fed have done all of the heavy lifting, while the government makes life difficult for businesses to thrive.

I have faith in Benjamin Bernanke, but he isn’t going to stay on for another term, is he?

I’m just jotting some thoughts down as they materialize inside of my brain.

Back to your regularly scheduled bull market.

NOTE: Just today, it was announced that John Melloy from CNBC will take over the role of CEO at StockTwits, replacing Howard Lindzon. I’m somewhat sentimental over hearing this news, especially since Howard was a very early supporter of “The Fly”, way back in 2006. I remember the day he told me about the crazy idea called Stocktwits. He was excited about Twitter back then, wayyy before anyone else even knew about the site, and wanted to carve out a niche for finance. I recall thinking Twitter was something of a homosexual medium and that it would go by the wayside of time. Boy was I wrong. Howard did a phenomenal job taking StockTwits from nothing to the epicenter of online finance, and certainly did carve out a nice niche for the company. I am sure he’s thrilled to abscond with the day to day duties and get back to doing what he loves most: investing and porn.

Good luck Mr. Melloy. If you mess up Stocktwits, I will have your body parts strewn across whatever land you descend from.

I spent my day looking at different opportunities, building up a buy list for all of the cash I have sidelined. One of the names that popped up was DATE. Then I was reminded about past indiscretions when I’d take positions simply for the sake of taking them, to profit quickly off momentum. While that might work for some of you, that’s not my style. I need purpose behind my buys, else I’m doomed from the get-go.

This is the sort of tape that lures you in with low-brow names, until the hammer of certain death is dropped on your gambling faces.

The market is heading lower because Obama wants panic.

My losses were very muted today; but there is significant risk of a full rout of stocks. Remember, panics do not occur from the top. If this market keeps selling off, we will set up for a capitulation trade, whereby ageless vampires like myself will suck your arteries dry (no homo, simply vampire lifestyle).

VXX tits.

Chinese burritos are doing just fine today. Have a look at VISN, JRJC, RCON, BONA and BITA–rippage.

Marijuna play, GWPH, is exploding to the upside on a massive upgrade. This biotech company is interested in making cannabis based pain killers.

In addition, gold, silver, REITs, even solar (my favorite is SUNE) is trending higher, despite the overall weakness in the indices. This tells me the market is dying to trade up. Nonetheless, I believe this sort of optimism can hurt people, especially since no one knows how long this is going to play out.

Germany deserves a AAA rating because they’re responsible with their debt. The United States deserves a AA rating, not because we lack the funds to pay our bills, but because we purposely choose not to.

Early estimates point to 10/31 (ironic) being the day when the government will run out of cash, and will not be able to pay its bills. My guess: the crisis continues until the very last day. These bozos knew about this issue for months, but opted for a 5 week vacation and never bothered to broach the subject until it became unavoidable. We are governing by crisis and the American people, especially the ones who pay taxes, deserve better.

One final thing to note is the market went higher for two days after Lehman collapsed. Only after the real economic effects of Lehman was realized did the market plunge. That could happen to us with this manufactured crisis, so be on guard for the downside surprise.

Every one who is discussing the “debt ceiling crisis to come” says: “well, congress isn’t going to allow the country to default on its debt. That’s just crazy.” My question to these fine chaps is: why are you so sure and what has congress ever done to make you feel confident? We’re going full nutso and very soon.

The only time these bozos act fast is when they want to bomb a country.

The GOP is embedded in a belief system that says “TARP was bad. Bailouts are evil. Government is the devil. And, we should treat the treasury like a check-book and balance it.” This is the mind-set of an idiot 10 year old school boy.

There’s also a boy cried wolf aspect to these whole “crisis to come”, in that the sequestration “crisis” proved to be nonsense. Many of our GOP leaders do not believe in mathematics and will joyfully place the fate of the country into the Lord’s hands.

In other news, the YEN is +0.6% and TLT is lifting higher, classic “risk-off” behavior. The only oddity is the rise in yields of 1 mo government bills–based upon the wild eyed idea that the government might not make good on their short term interest payments.

Oh, the BDI is up again this morning, +31 to 2115. DRYS is getting hammered this morning because they will be issuing new shares to raise capital. Remember, I told you this was a real danger for many dry bulk stocks, which is why I am long the one who will not issue new shares–because they don’t need to. Ultimately, this is healthy for the industry and the long term prospects are looking good.

S&P futures are sharply lower because people are finally starting to realize how insanely dysfunctional the US government is, in regard to operating an economy. There isn’t any need to dwell on something that I deem to be a given, so I’ll just say it: we’re going to default. Now that doesn’t ensure losses. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the market went +400 on the exact day of default, simply because the market is retarded like that.

10/17 is Zerohedge day, the day when the United Steaks of American shows the world how bad its representatives are, something its citizens have known for a long, long time.

I step into tomorrow with a 25% cash position, prepared to leverage up to 150% on meaningful dip. I was going to drop a million dollars into VXX, but you jackasses ruined it for me, talked me out of making a smart decision because you’re just jealous of my grandeur.

The low probability bet is US default–because it makes zero sense. That’s exactly why it’s going to happen.

GET READY TO DEFAULT, SUCKERS.

The Option Addict is absolutely slaying the market. I tip my top hat to all of his minions who’ve joined his service and made triple digit returns. HOWEVER, and I am sure he’d agree with me when I say: you’re all behaving like spoiled brats, filled with hedonistic hubris.

I don’t mean to single any one out, but that’s exactly what I intend to do. You speak of “not being satisfied with 20-30% returns anymore” and that if “the gains are less than triple digits, they’re simply not worth my while.” Pardon the paraphrasing; it sounds better when I write it.

Do yourselves a favour and check that happiness at the door. Very soon you will be sucking from the tail pipe of an oldsmobile, as Congress tosses you under it. Do not, for a second, believe that they are responsible stewards with our money.

Being 75% invested without hedges, I stand to lose coin, just like you. The only difference is, I am prepared for that eventuality and will not draw down 20-90% on the next leg lower–if it even happens.

I bought SUNE because it’s heading for new highs.

NOTE: I never said I wasn’t ‘crazy.’

If you love Obama, Harry Reid, and the rest of the gang, you’re probably warming to the idea of buying this market. You figure there isn’t any way the GOP can withstand the Godship of the democratic party, led by Jesus himself, and thereby caving into the messiahs demands–sooner rather than later. However, I believe you underestimate the true crazy that is embedded at the heart of the new religion based, gold bug, wing of the republican party.

No longer are the republicans wearing checkered pants on the golf course, working diligently to keep out the riff-raff from their respected country clubs. These new guys are only interested in the default of the US treasury. They feel, and have always felt, “we’re spending recklessly” and it’s “best to take our medicine now than later on” when it might taste bad, filled with sugar and all sort of fillers. The GOP wants you to die from cancer right now and do not feel the need to bother with expensive chemo-therapy treatment.

The faster you die, the quicker you will get to meet Jesus, then be reincarnated, back to living a sin-less life of austere conservatism, purchasing wares with coins made from 24k gold.

THAT’S WHAT YOU’RE DEALING WITH NOW. Good luck.

UPDATE:

You suckers better start getting used to this. The BDI has bottomed and Wall St is completely oblivious to the fact that the shippers are the best engine for year over year growth in the market right now.

They’re gonna learn the hard way after earnings are released.

Top pick: BALT