Let me start this missive by saying the buck stops at the desk of the President. The fact that he is presiding over this without striking some sort of compromise speaks to his narcism and inability to negotiate without his teleprompter. The far right part of the GOP wants to go over the debt ceiling. After carefully analyzing these people, I can tell you they are losing control of the republican party. The moderates know they don’t have a strategy to defund Obama-care and understand how reckless it is to throw the country into a deliberate financial crisis.
But the Tea Party believes in “fighting” and “pressing on”, using such absurd platitudes to embolden the weaker links in their caucus. They believe Obama-care will destroy America. Therefore, they will destroy it on their own terms, by defunding everything and going into default.
Some of these people actually believe we will not default. They cite net revenues versus expenditures and surmise we can “wing it” until a deal is brokered. This is a preposterous way of thinking. The bottom line in all of this is dramatic economic slowdown, one way or another. As such, stocks will be marked down accordingly.
At the end of the day, Obama-care will not be defunded because the votes aren’t there. This whole mess is one big show, conducted by people who operate on emotion and haven’t thought this through. It is the result of low quality persons occupying the seats in Congress, power hungry perverts, pandering to special interests.
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I agree about Congress. However, Obama may be doing exactly the best thing here, in the long run. In the long run, if he gives the Tea Party enough rope to hang itself with, the country will be far better off without them.
Even the Republican party will be better off without the Tea Party, because more people my start seeing the more mainstream Republicans as reasonable. It is reasonable to want to work toward eventually balancing the budget. But suddenly cutting a trillion dollars out of the U.S. economy and just seeing what happens– That is insane.
I disagree. The whole idea of “saving future Presidents from this problem” is a weak one and lazy.
He just doesn’t want to do his job now.
Do you disagree that just about everyone in the country– including the Republican Party– will be better off if the Tea Party self-destructs?
I hate the Tea Party, but that doesn’t give Obama the right to ignore elected officials who are hurting the country. He has to be able to deal.
I agree he has to deal. But I think perhaps it wil be the best deal he can get for the country if he can get rid of the Tea Party and then let the rest of the members of both major parties have rational discussions and come to rational agreements.
Frog is right.
Even the Republican leadership hasn’t been able to negotiate with the TPers.
In fact, the Republican leadership was the first to give up on trying to negotiate with the TPers and keep some of their crazier demands under control. Boehner and Co. are now hoping that a hard smack on the nose from the reality of the debt limit situation, public reaction, and Obama’s firm (?) stance against using the debt limit to extract political gains will humble the TPers enough to bring them back under control of leadership. I’d guess that the leadership would also be thrilled if the episode put a severe damper on the primary challenges to GOP incumbents by TP candidates.
The reason that negotiation is a bad approach is that there is no head to the TP snake. There is no TP leader that Obama could reasonably expect to be willing and able to hold the bulk of the TPers to an agreement.
Listening to Levin makes me want to grab a pair of pliers and pull my own teeth out.
If they were smart they would just let it go.
The Supremes ruled on it and it is the law of the land (although designed by healthcare lobbyists and a few like Reid and Pelosi behind closed doors).
Obamacare was set up to fail (and it will as it’s designed as such) as the left wants single pay- the ultimate goal.
By the way Fly, that’s a bunch of “political” postings lately. This get’s the flock all excited. Keep this up and the comments will get close to OAs in terms of number.
OA has quite a following.
If it were designed to fail, then wouldn’t it be easier for the Cock Tea Party to just let it fail on its own and get rid of it that way? It seems to me that they wouldn’t try so hard to get rid of it before it even starts, if they weren’t afraid that once it begins, everyone will love it.
You’re assuming the Tea Party has thought this through.
Obamacare was definitely designed to fail. The penalties for not signing up are very low, and there are gaping coverage holes. Tradercaddy nailed it; they want a train wreck to push the next phase.
Obamacare was designed to win passage in Congress. Nothing survives that journey without damage.
The penalties increase over time, and could be further tweaked as needed to keep the numbers of the voluntarily uninsured low enough for the program to work.
Few who desire a single-payer system of health insurance (and I favor single payer) want to see ACA fail. Rather, they would hope that ACA would demonstrate the benefits of health insurance for (nearly) all while demonstrating the unnecessary complexity and waste of having a bunch of insurance companies that claim a substantial percentage of spending on health care without providing any health care. Maybe then there will be political space for single-payer experiments by individual states.
There should be a rule, in politics, mirroring these here halls; anyone over the age of 45 must go.
I agree that the President should do his job and make certain this tantrum ends before more serious damage is done.
I think there are many low quality voters in the United States, and no wonder they elect themselves. It comes down to education and/or what happens at home during the growing up process.
My parents did not have the skills and knowledge to do a good job. They tried and meant well, but were poor parents.
Of course it is up to me to make my own life, but it would have helped if they had been better parents. Considering my flawed upbringing was fine compared to a large percentage of today’s population, the dysfunctional condition of the country should be no surprise.
Ted Cruz is under 45. Plenty of Tea Partiers are young folks, who joined up because they are naturally naive, due to lack of life experience. That’s all we need– a Congress full of Cock Tea Partiers. Ironically, the Cocks, who are ages 73 and 77, would then be controlling everything.
The puppets and the puppet string holders often belong to different age groups. In fact, they are often so different that, if the puppets had any idea whose will they were carrying out, and what their goals and purposes were, they would stop being puppets immediately.
Ok, Dr. Fly – here’s what I’m thinking: this is all one big charade. Worry not about the debt ceiling or default. Republicans and Democrats are not separated by financial ideologies any longer. The Tea Party is such a minority, they have no power to slow down anything. The Tea folks are only being used for this ruse.
First, a precedent for my theory, remember this story?: http://dcclothesline.com/2013/10/03/leaked-obamacare-emails-did-boehner-make-a-deal-with-the-devil/
Here’s the key excerpt:
“According to National Review Online, one email discussed how it would disguise a meeting with Barack Obama on this subject as a meeting on immigration reform.” – They were actually meeting about congressional Obamacare exemptions.
The same hands that are greased the system to create the ACA, grease Republican pockets as well. It’s pure political theater for these people to pretend they’re fighting against it.
So what’s the plan? Read this little diddy: http://www.infowars.com/epic-fail-99-of-obamacare-applications-cant-be-processed-nightmare-scenario-coming-in-january/
The author believes that the Federal Govt doesn’t actually have a capable system that can enroll individuals in Obamacare. Some individual states do, but not the Feds. If this is the case, everything we are watching and going through, will actually end in “compromise” and result in a delay of the ACA. The president will save face, and actually portray himself as the only sane person in Washington. The Republicans will raise the debt ceiling and continue spending endlessly, only they can pretend to their far-right members they negotiated this for the sake of the country and do delay a national disaster (Obamacare).
There can be no negotiations if there is only one side. 😉
Exactamundo
Interesting theories, Uncle Buccs. Let’s see if what they predict actually happens. There are lots of theories. Most do not come true, but some do.
E.g. I know there is a theory that the dollar is about to crash very soon. That theory has been around for decades though and we’re still waiting for it to happen. It may one day. But more decades may go by first.
frog, lets hope for the best.
The perfect situation for the real powers that be, off at some masked sex party like eyes wide shut. A scripted fight where both sides of the aisle have plausible deniability by saying they can’t work with the other, hence taking us down all together.
Then they can carry out the next phase of the master plan.
I can’t think of a better explanation. There’s no possible way else for out Supreme Court to rule this thing legal in the first place. They wrote the law as a fine, which is clearly unconstitutional. Justice Roberts goes ahead and re-interprets it as a tax, but if the damn thing was a tax to begin with it never went thru the proper protocol and appropriations process.
The Supreme Court can rule any way it wants for any reason– well, it has to make up a plausible sounding reason. But I’ll bet the stated reason is usually not the real one.
I wouldn’t read too much into any of their decisions. They do what they want and are answerable to no one. Best job in the world.
These “Master Plans” conspiracy theories have been going around for decades. The dollar is always about to crash and be replaced by a world currency.
Since Obama got elected, all of us are supposed to be put into FEMA camps within the next few months etc. Everything is supposed to happen very soon. But it never does. As years or decades go by.
Let it burn. Bring marshmellows.
Marshmallows. And, yes – down she goes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFYO43UCMYE
Fly, I’m relatively new to the game but I have entrenched myself in the market and have been drawn to ibankcoin thanks to you and chess. I bought BALT on your recommendation as I though that your logic seemed solid. I even started my own blog and among some of my own ideas I copied your BALT pick because I think that theres something behind that whole BDI thing. Earlier this year I was playing options and lost waay too much money with that retarded derivative thing, its gambling. The good thing about equities is that you can hold them forever.
Are you really so concerned with these political games going on in Washington. In the short time I’ve been in the game I’ve seen the sequester, Cyprus, Syria, and now this debt ceiling bullshit. Im not denying the fact that the extremists in the right wing are crazy enough to try to take us off the cliff. After all they have nothing to lose and the only thing they are infatuated on is making Obama look bad. However, by getting too emotional over political charades don’t you think that you may possibly be missing what is going on here? These political charades always get sorted out at the last minute. What I see going on here is the Best Dip Buying Opportunity of the Year! These are stocks, not options. We don’t have to make money every day (Thank god in BALT im down over 12%) We don’t have to sell these stocks for years if we don’t want to.
Let the politicians play politics. We are traders and investors, we play the market. By getting too caught up in the short term people are failing to see the bigger picture which is an unrelenting Bull Market.
So anyways take it for what its worth, but if I had any capital on the sidelines I would be buying up this blessing in disguise of a dip and let the talking heads talk talk talk, until they come together at the last minute like they always do and watch the markets rally back up to their rightful positions at all time highs.
If this post doesn’t mark a top, I don’t know what does.
Then you better start shorting assweasel
“rightful position” You must be a newbie. No clue what you are trying to say. Careful.
I said I was new, thats why I’m here, I want good advice from seasoned traders. All I’m saying is that I think they go up from here long term. They go up and down pick a side. I mean what do you do? You can panic sell now or give it some time to see what happens…
Thats not a rhetorical question either. What are you guys doing? Are you hedging, reducing, going cash or adding? You still in BALT Fly?
Online Critics are like the GOP. Plenty of shit to sling at others with little creative substance of their own.
You found the right site. Do not listen to anyone but The Fly and the other tabbed bloggers. Was simply pointing out an interesting way to look at the tape. But fuck what I think. Seriously.
Balt wil continue north , if you didn’t sell the game now is patience .
there’s a gap (down) near , it will be covered , apart from this and from any company business profile and prospects (good..) technically speaking is nicely set up for ripping higher . all shipper got caught by this sell off at the top of a monster rally , there’s monster retracement going on , then they’ll get to the top again (bdi permitting )
Just what do you all think Obama can negotiate with? Obamacare is law. He won the election. The law passed. What do you want him to do? Repeal it? How can he negotiated with these nutjobs? They lost and lost again and again and again. He has nothing to give them. they lost
When you are a leader, you deal. That’s the game.
PPACA was passed over three years ago. The party that passed it lost control of the House, primarily because they voted for it.
Failure to acknowledge this reality is the root of his problem.
The senate republicans need 5/50-some for a majority and the senate democrats need 16/233 house republicans for a majority. If they can’t get a few moderates to come to their side, thats on them… The 500+ idiots in congress, not 3 tea party members and a tinfoil hat.
The coch brothers only dream they had as much influence as some would have you believe.
Tea party is but a splash in the ocean. A political scapegoat when it all goes bad.
The Cocks have 43 billion dollars. That can buy a lot of influence. And no one can argue with the fact that our government is for sale to the highest bidder.
The Cocks “primaried” enough Congress members, plus pressured even more Congress members with the threat of being primaried, that they have shut down the government. Hardly a splash. This is a tsunami.
Yes, they will primary anyone who isn’t onboard and reincarnate them into the Lord’s vision.
Wel, maybe I am wrong, but not conceding yet. Having a large net worth and actually having that much liquid is a huge difference.. And they aren’t the only ones with money, I doubt they are even the largest campaign doners of anyone but maybe a select few teapartiers. You could just as easily try to say that “George Soros” or “Warren Buffett” could do the same thing with his billions for the liberals… I still think that the cokehead brothers are nothing but bogeymen just as Soros is for the Ayn Rand readers.
They can influence a few, but there are nearly 500 members (435 voting) of the house.. It cannot be that easy when the are other people with money that absolutely do not want a default including several large banking institutions.
Of course, I am not privy to everything that goes on behind closed doors, nor do I think anyone on this site is, but I bet if you totaled up all the campaign contributors the cochs would still be a small fraction of the total money, even if they were one of the larger players.
Overnight $ES_F says crisis over. The degenerates trading futures (Congressional Staffers mainly) know best.
Next Issue.
Obamen party will not default .com’on. don’t add to the comedy .. it will not happen ; it doesn’t deserve t this much attention
default is counterproductive for all the parties in the game , leave alone usa and usa gents
futures are up 0.7%