Sold $ETR, Bought $AMGN

I’ve had ETR for a while and felt like booking the trade. With AMGN almost 10% down from highs, yielding 2%, I bought a small position.

Am I supposed to get excited that our execution has been stayed? The gallows are still there, freshly built, awaiting our necks. European markets have soared over the past two days. Ours? Ours are for the dogs.

More than 340 stocks traded down more than 10% this week, an ordinary correction in a land of milk and honey. After all, we have the best banks, Fed, tech and medicine man companies. We also have a benevolent oligarchy who bestow mercy upon us in the form of short prison sentences for IRS violations.

I see oil is trading up again, luring managers of money back into its fuck up web. Having positions in a variety of oil stocks, I am not complaining–per se.

It’s past 2 o’clock in the afternoon and I haven’t bothered to blog yet. I’ve been awake since 6am, sort of in a trance like catatonic state. I’ve been reading a book, about the life and times of Jay Gould, robber baron extraordinaire.

How did olde Jay amass his $86 million back in the 19th century? Very simple. He merely would sell short the company he was in charge of, purposely fuck up their contracts, cover his short, and then get long after fixing the contracts. He also once forced UNP, the company he was CEO of, to buy the Kansas City railroad, in which he owned the majority of the shares, at an extreme premium. He netted $40 million from that deal.

He also treated the Erie railroad as his personal piggy bank, legally.

Ah, the good old days.

Needless to say, I am not impressed by today’s rally and will not be buying anything. There is too much muck, implicit corruption, and a strangely docile investment public to believe anything seen on my screen.

#1: The PPT is now oversold on all metrics, including TNA and TQQQ. The recent stats point to an immediate bounce (tomorrow) and then possible resumption of the downtrend. This is how the signs has been met over the past 11 occasions.

#2: Remember when I warned you the other day about biotech stocks being filled with asshole momo traders? Well, by the looks of NDRM, JUNO, KITE and many others, they were fucking wiped off the map today. When I posted about biotechs we were at the upper end of the Hybrid score model. Now we are at the bottom part of the range, suggestive of a bounce coming soon.

If we are to accept these signals as valid, and they have served us well in the past, the trade will be to buy biotech tomorrow and then sell it on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Bear in mind, we can still make money trading for the upside in a brutal bear market. Some of my best upside trades happened in 2008 and 2009.

Breathe in everything and digest what you’ve just experienced. This is sheer, gypsy, fuckery at its finest. The small moving parts are no longer important. There are big things happening, accompanied by giant moves that affect everything.

The expectations have never been higher for the ECB. We are in the grips of harsh and severe deflation, even BBY mentioned it in their conference call. I’ve been saying this for almost a year, while the clam fuckers on CNBC were jaw-boning about rate hikes. There will never be rate hikes and QE IV is assured. The only thing we need to do before getting QE is go lower. Very simply, the political clout isn’t there within a buckshot of new highs. We need to dive lower, mind you, to the tune of 15%.

After the Dow drops 2,000 points from current levels, we will get more QE.

In the meantime, we’re gonna bounce soon, as is always the case with runaway markets. In this instance we are running away to the downside: unsustainable. But do you have confidence that Draghi and his european comrades will succeed in saving equity markets? Because if he disappoints, the market is going to swan dive lower.

With banks getting crushed and oil already in the shit-box, there’s too much pain out there. A liquidation is in order and everything will compress because of it.

All of my gains for the year have been wiped out and I hate life again. The cycle continues.

European markets traded up 2.2% and our NASDAQ is off more than 40. All of the leaders are getting killed and quite frankly anything that I write now is utterly meaningless. Sure, trade the edges and be sure to limit losses. However, these moves are entirely unpredictable. Just this morning it appeared oil was reversing to the upside, until it wasn’t.

All of this pain and the NASDAQ is barely down for the month.

Just like 2014, gold stocks are paving the way to prosperity, early going. As you know, later on in the year gold stocks reversed and died.

Hey cheer up, the Dow is down 10 of 12 days and the SPY is still above 2,000. We’re off to a dashing start to 2015!

Saudi Arabia has defeated us, once again (extra 9/11). WTI is now trading at a premium to Brent crude. When I was long refiners, back in 2011-2012, the main driver was the $15-25 spread between WTI and Brent. As of this moment, WTI is trading  at $48.90 and Brent is $48.75.

Should this trend continue, it spells extreme and immediate doom for US refiners. Stocks like WNR, HFC, ALJ, DK and MPC are extremely risky here, albeit down significantly from the highs.

The market has opened and it ran higher by 90 points, only to melt down like a snowman in July–currently vacillating near the unchanged mark. Earnings out from BAC and C were abysmal, as well as BBY.

Oil and gas stocks are the silver lining of this tape right now, which is an affirmation of why you should diversify into different sectors, even when they’re underperforming.

The Dow is now down 41. Fuck my life.

So I went to sleep around 4:10am to Dow futures up 150. I woke up at 6:10am to them down more than 110. The news is, as you already know, the Swiss bank removed the “Swiss ceiling” and “Euro floor”, paving the way for an incredible one day +15%+ move in CHF vs Euro. As a result of this, the Swiss market is down more than 12%, the largest decline since 1989.

Everyone wants in on the Swiss Franc and people are selling euros every which way but loose. This is NOT a fucking reason to sell stocks. You’d have to possess the thinking capacity of a horse to view this as a negative for stocks. Who gives a shit, really? The Swiss bank couldn’t keep up the charade any longer, with their artificial pegging to the euro.

Why?

Because the ECB is going to announce and begin massive QE next week. If they permitted this peg to stand, they’d need to bag hold euros on an epic scale. So, they figured now was the time to end the stupidity and the market is responding in kind.

I view this market response with the same demeanor as a serial killer would view his next target. I have nothing but unadulterated disdain for all parties involved. I want them to perish in fires, crushed under elevators, dropped down manholes. This dip will be bought, or NOT! It’s not like the +150 market open was gonna stick anyway, right?

We are living in very interesting times. America shall thrive off this news and punch our european counterparts in the fucking face, many times over.

I was actually flat for the day. I would’ve been up had it not been for that murderous hamburger stock knifing lower on me each and every day. I walked away from today’s horrendous decline a champion, King of all Kings Boss of all Bosses. At least that’s what they want me to believe.

The only reason why I was flat is due to the miraculous turn in energy stocks, with SLCA leading the way for me. To be content with a draw is to be a servile, third estate, canaille, beast of a man. I am not a savage.

Pardon me as I fill up my wine glass to the brim, much to the chagrin of Mrs. Fly.

I am back.

It’s days like today that give you false hope. “I was only down a little, so maybe tomorrow I will do better.” And then the hammer of certain death punches you into outer space. Speaking of which, the homos at BBRY rebuffed a Samsung offer? Really? Those idiots need to be ousted from the company.

This is the bottom line: oil stocks made a miraculous rally today and are probably the best trading vehicles next to biotech right now. All of the issues  with this market still persist and the bears are still in control. Despite the market being near new highs, let’s not kid ourselves, whole sectors have been a raging bear market for almost a year. We are getting more of the same and I expect death, extreme death, to come calling next week–should the transvestites at the ECB decline to undergo QE with irrational vigor.

Markets are looking pretty good here, post open. All of the lemmings are running about, buying the dips, merrily and gleefully profiting along the way. Believe me, there is nothing that I want more than to either totally crash and burn or melt up to the sun, eject the bears out from the space capsule, then watch them disintegrate. My hell is this back and forth to nowhere.

“The Fly” is not a rocking chair type of a man. He enjoys a good challenge, 5 hours at the gym per week, and lots and lots of kinetic energy.

I love managing money and I also hate it. It has shaved decades from my life expectancy, made my life miserable at times, and filled with so much hubris during period of success that Mrs. Fly has attempted to kill me on more than one occasion. Even still, I cannot envision myself doing anything else.

Biotechs are bouncing hardcore here and the market has the look and feel of a reversal. But I am not a child and I am not drinking from an infant’s bottle as I write this blog. You’d have to be a servile idiot to just run out there naked without protective hedges.

As it so happens, that is exactly how I am positioned right now.

I am so mad right now I can barely write in discernible english.

Let’s go over the events that led up to today, crash day.

1. Plunging commodity prices, ignored by our central banks.

2. Zero growth in Europe.

3. Decelerating growth in China.

4. A Federal Reserve who’ve been talking about raising rates during a deflationary attack on markets.

5. Plunging yields, caused by flight to safety.

6. Flattening yield curve.

7. ECB head Draghi is all talk no action.

8. The fucking Nazis balanced their budget for the first time in 40 years, at a time when deflation is the risk.

9. Bond yields are now NEGATIVE in the following countries: Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, The Netherlands, Finland, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Japan.

Retail sales numbers came in weak; but I am not concerned about that. Those numbers are for idle morons. You really need to judge retail on a case by case basis. Without a doubt, the drop in gasoline will be a net positive for good merchants. But crappy stores are just crappy and will never garner enough business. The drop in gasoline has been so sudden, so quick, that consumers haven’t even realized what the hell is going on, and have pocketed the savings. Give it some time, they will spend it all.

Futures are down more than 200. I’d like to tell you we can rally off the lows. But the truth is, we are in a deflationary vortex, at a time when central banks seem to be stuck in a morass of sheer and utter stupidity. The prevailing wisdom seems to be emanating from talking heads who literally want to DESTROY western finance through pre-mature rate hikes.

We need more cocaine. I’ve been saying this for more than 6 months. While most of you laughed at me and poked fun at my suggestion that another round of QE was needed, you will not be laughing after today–after today’s sit inside of the death vehicle heading straight for god damned hell!

Happy trading, fucked face.