Five Out of Six

The Exodus predictive engines have successfully gamed the timing of the oversold condition 5 out of the last 6 times, clowning all of you chart-chomping morons with the energy of 10,000 Skeletors.

Speaking of which, the locale of the iBankCoin Conference VIP cocktail party has been solidified, inside of the Yale Club Library room (note: no one will be murdered in the library during the party).

We fully expect to entertain a host of lads and lasses in a night of debauchery. I will, of course, be in full disguise, in order to prevent riff-raff from invading and violating my privacy.

Also, the good folks of iBankCoin have set up a Facebook page, albeit a decade late. I anticipate all of you to “like” it with great expediency.

I was up 2.4% today, fueled by ONCE.

Listen to me. Americans love to eat. From hammed burgers to hotted dogs, the taste of fat, on a largess scale, is exactly what this country needs to feel better again. The casual dining space is enjoying a renaissance, the likes this country hasn’t seen since the invention of the meated loaf.

Look no further than CMG, a Mexican cuisine delight, filled with very hungry white Americans in search of authentic flare from south of the border. Ask for some soured cream and “guac” and your burritos will explode with joy to the upside.

Make no mistake, this is an industry that has always faired well during the month of September. Have a look at the seasonal stats.

After a long summer of arduous cocaine parties, Americans just want to unwind and eat some frenched fries. Sonic, the hammed burger food chain, has gone up 19 times in September, out of 25. That hit rate exceeds 75%, lads!

With oil in the dumps and the stock market down, I am looking for a mean reversion here, especially in the casual dining space.

My top pick is SHAK, due to the founder, Danny Meyer, who literally wrote the book on how to run a successful eatery, owner of top NYC fine dining locales. Other names of opportunity include: WING (BOSS), CMG, SBUX, DPZ, PZZA, DIN and BWLD.

This is a fine way to begin the month of September, in earnest. Breadth is at a solid 85% and the Exodus time machine, predictive algorithms, is working with flawless potency.

I’d like to remind you that you were told, rather sternly, to avoid betting against “The Fly” on all occasions. This happens to be one of those times, if you will. May the sun roast your stomach with the extremities of 10,000 hells and bring forth oxen with the legs of man to kick you down elevator shafts, then trounce upon your ugly faces until you disappear.

I have lots of “top picks”, most of which will be going higher soon. If forced to select just one sector for the month of September, I’d choose casual dining. From the casual dining arena, there is but one company that I am interested in investing in, for the remainder of my natural born life. That company is SHAKE SHACK, ticker SHAK.

I have little else to say at the present.

Good day.

Fuck all of you guys bitching about lack of entertainment at iBankCoin. All of the clowns and all of the court jesters have been thrusted out from our confines. What you have left, walking these hallowed halls, is the Order of Men who are familiar with the speculative world that you endeavor to circumvent.

I’ve lost more money in a single week of drawdowns than you posers have in a life time of paper trading, trying to curry the favor of catamites looking for gurus on Stocktwits.

I have no interest in giving you insight, following a night filled of debauchery. Just know this, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when it appears he’s losing badly. I’ll recover from these hits; I always do. We will host the iBankCoin Investors Conference, whether you’re there or not.

It’s gonna be a great year, one way or another. I can’t let the negativity, that intends to suffocate me with its garish intentions, get to me. There is only one obstacle in my way to achieve unchecked success and Jeremy Bentham styled hedonism, and that is myself. Nothing is impossible, not even a Federal Reserve fueled rally that can rip and shred off the faces of every single bear alive.

It’s time for a little mean reversion.

How has Exodus faired during this decline? In recent weeks, the system has been adjusting to new levels, intuitively learning the new normal and identifying trends.

There have been 6 OS signals for the principle 36 mo algorithm, of which 3 have proven to be profitable within 5 trading days, one loss, and 2 are still open–the last registering on Friday.

Here is the longer term track record.

81% win rate over the past 3 years. Don’t even try to compete.

This correction is only unique as far as the rarity of its existence in recent years. But the manner in which the best stocks, in the most richly valued sectors are going down, is exactly like all the others.

The light will appear at the end of this dark tunnel, soon enough, and we’ll be slapping each other in the faces with colossal shrimp cocktails with the vigor of 10,0000 Bill Ackmans.

I see Raul is really feeling himself today, attempting a coup to cold jack the website from my pale white hands. I will have you know, Sir, that I am back and the arts of cinema are entirely mine.

Good day to you.

American Psycho is one of my favorite films of all-time, one that I hold dear for sentimental reasons. When this movie came out, the market was in a horrible bear market. At the time, I employed my best childhood friend as a cold caller and then account opener. I thought he had some real talent. But for whatever reason, he was unable to endure the bear market.

At any rate, this movie was his favorite and he literally used to emulate Christian Bale’s character, whenever he could. I recall on one occasion someone asked him a question and gently touched his suit while asking it. He looked at the man, as if he had ten heads and said “the suit. Don’t touch the suit. It’s virgin wool.”

There was also a time when he convinced me that the business cards issued by the firm were inadequate. “Both the paper and ink qualities were lacking,” so I took them down to the local print shop and got some super high end shit made. Upon seeing this, the sales manager at my global investment bank went ape, trying to explain to me how marketing went through great lengths to create the former design that how we couldn’t use the new and improved ones. Come to think of it, maybe that’s the reason why my friend quit the business. The shoddy business cards were probably too much for him to bear.

He’d also come to work at 5:30 am, leave a few meatball sandwiches at my office door, with a note that read “sorry, I went home. I didn’t feel well.” He’d actually do that often. Who the fuck does shit like that, leaving nice sandwiches at my door with a note of excuse? Why not call that shit in, sans the delicious meats? I never quite understood it. But my partner and I did enjoy the sandwiches, probably more than his work.

At any rate, American Psycho is a choice movie, one that me and my friends emulated for a year or two, while the markets were mired in the deepest and most horrifying bear market since the 1970’s.

Futures are getting hammered, following a day when a slew of high growth names got smoked for 5%+, as the Dow climbed by a deceptive 56. Should things follow this trajectory, you are all going to regret the day your Father decided to date your Mother. With most high beta stocks off by 20%+ over the past month, look for the balance to tip over and send the lot over into the fucking pits of hell, elevating capital losses to astounding levels and reducing the Twitter-trader cabal into motherfucking clown-dust.

Goodnite.

This is the worst flat day in the history of the stock market. My stocks are doing worse today than when the market was down 500. And for what?

Margin liquidations. Hedge funds rebalancing out of risk, etc, etc.

This is a classic pattern, one that has fucked me numerous times in my career. It’s the bifurcation of the market, splitting the risk from conservative free cash flow names like a motherfucker. This trend isn’t in its final stages, unfortunately. In my experience, these sort of moves tend to exacerbate to the downside, forcing people to sell into extreme weakness.

One day these risk names will come roaring back. But by then, you will be long out of them, unless of course your time horizon is long and you still have dry powder to average down. This is the very worst part of investing and it tends to trick almost everyone, professional include. The demoralizing grind and rapid price movements tend to stress people out and cause attrition in the market. Once the last bull throws in his towel, then the market will bottom.

My best guess is to be long in size by October. September will likely continue to grind out traders until we get an ultimate inflection point. I do not believe the market is doing anything irrational. This is standard operating procedure, an olde fashioned “squall” if you will. Students of the market should know that these moves are to be expected and are always temporary. We might very well resume a downtrend, one that sustains itself for years to come. But even during bear markets there are pockets of brilliance, places to hide, asset classes to buy on the cheap. What you’re seeing here is tossing out the baby with the bathwater. An enterprising speculator will view this as it should be: opportunity.

The stock market is more rigged than ever, thanks to the cabal of venture capitalists. Men like Marc Andreesen (sp?) and Frederick Wilson enjoy inflating the wares of their private investments, share their schemes with loyal friends and family, then dump them onto an ignorant investing public, courtesy of your local investment bank. When market’s disconnect, like they are doing now, this is when the layman, the ordinary goat herder reading blogs for information, can separate himself from the pack and score big wins.

The venture capitalist cabal couldn’t care less about public markets, only as far as its liquidity is concerned. They want to sell their “investments” at 100x sales and never look back at the damage they’ve inflicted upon investor psyche/purse.

STEER CLEAR OF ALL IPOs, for they are wrought with schemes and diabolical intentions to use you as a source of liquidity. The sooner the market starts rejecting IPOs coming public at 20x sales, the faster we can rid ourselves from being hoodwinked into the GRPN’s, ZNGA’s and ETSY’s of the world.

Seriously, when was the last time a stock came public, went up after IPO, and held its gains for more than a year? I can think of a handful: PANW comes to mind. But they are rare. The IPO market wasn’t always this fucked. Back in the day, if a company came public at 10x sales, that was insane. Now that’s value.

The only exception to this scheme is found in biotech, mainly because Mr. Wilson has no edge in the FDA approval game, which is why the best performing IPOs, post market, have been found in this sector, with overwhelming abundance.

I am harsh on the VC community because I hate what they represent. They stand for the worst type of greed, an avarice that is solely directed at taking advantage of the small investor, while ingratiating themselves with ungodly gains.

Fuck them.

So many people love to visit cesspools around the world, in order to “take in” the depravity of a savage populous. Raise your hands if you’ve ever visited Thailand, Africa or any country east of Germany?

Precisely.

Whether you know it or not, you visited these indigenous countries in order to see how the savage comports himself. You visited his towns and devoured his disgusting food. Your mind tricked you into believing that you were enjoying your stay, when in fact, deep down, you were wholly disgusted by the ordeal.

The same goes with the stock market. If you’ve ever invested overseas, not including the civilized countries of England, France and Germany, I am sure you can recall a moment that you’ve questioned your own sanity for being long an inferior civilization. One should not trust the stocks of an inferior people’s. Sure, when times are good, their novelty is interesting and somewhat entertaining. But when times are bad, like now, they will bite your face off–cannibals running through the jungles naked with scary masks atop their heads.

Regional banks like SBNY and BOFI interest me here, as well as my top pick AMCX. I am not enthused by today’s rally. It has a certain tenuous feel to it that makes me uneasy.