This is the worst flat day in the history of the stock market. My stocks are doing worse today than when the market was down 500. And for what?
Margin liquidations. Hedge funds rebalancing out of risk, etc, etc.
This is a classic pattern, one that has fucked me numerous times in my career. It’s the bifurcation of the market, splitting the risk from conservative free cash flow names like a motherfucker. This trend isn’t in its final stages, unfortunately. In my experience, these sort of moves tend to exacerbate to the downside, forcing people to sell into extreme weakness.
One day these risk names will come roaring back. But by then, you will be long out of them, unless of course your time horizon is long and you still have dry powder to average down. This is the very worst part of investing and it tends to trick almost everyone, professional include. The demoralizing grind and rapid price movements tend to stress people out and cause attrition in the market. Once the last bull throws in his towel, then the market will bottom.
My best guess is to be long in size by October. September will likely continue to grind out traders until we get an ultimate inflection point. I do not believe the market is doing anything irrational. This is standard operating procedure, an olde fashioned “squall” if you will. Students of the market should know that these moves are to be expected and are always temporary. We might very well resume a downtrend, one that sustains itself for years to come. But even during bear markets there are pockets of brilliance, places to hide, asset classes to buy on the cheap. What you’re seeing here is tossing out the baby with the bathwater. An enterprising speculator will view this as it should be: opportunity.
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Appreciate your guidance in these dark times, Sir Fly.
I’m slithering about like a mongoose working for satan
you’re a demon. Demons always get slaughtered.
Yes, but they never admit getting slaughtered. These are the Internets, where everyone is free to claim– after the fact– that they entered their short positions at the top and bought them back at the bottom– and vice versa for bulls. The Internets– where lying is rampant– and no one else except the Fly admits to ever having had a losing day or 2.
I can admit to more losing days than the people of China have fingers.
Good for you, Metalleg. That makes two who can admit it– you and Fly.
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
While you’re reading that, might as well read this too… http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/harbinger-man-the-time-is-now-to-prepare/
How am I not the most forboding personage on this page? Where did these other hoodlums come from? Sulking-ing-ing
The second coming of the great depression. I retitled it
“The worst are full of passionate intensity”—was Yeats talking about Bears?
More likely Democrats than Bears.
Ted Cruz.
Saved 15% on my car insurance today…
I bet you switched to Geico. When I switched to Geico, I saved a lot more than 15%. Closer to 50%. (true story).
Wow this is deep. Keep me away from a ledge.
Yeats is over rated. So many other great writers who deserve more attention than he gets.
AP or Eddie Lacy?
Night soil is what this market is. On another note The Martian is turning out to be an excellent book.
I thought blaming “Margin liquidations” was only for those lesser beings.
Also, I always find it interesting when people say, ‘the bottom is in when the last bull gives up’. If all the bulls have given up, who will be pushing stocks up? The bears???
It’s analogous
I had one of my best days in months. Carrying around the zebra’s head … indeud.
FUTS FUCKING HAMMERED
Don’t worry just 3 or 4 guys in their pajamas, not real.