Victory Gets Rewarded to the Bold

Yesterday I was throwing tantrums in my sand box. Today I’m a stock market guru, up 1.8% due to an overall lift in stocks thanks to NVDA.

Oil is pressing too.

Bottom line: we are BOOLISH again, although this time I’m somewhat reticent to add leverage to the portfolio. My weekly quant picks are doing fine and I de leveraged this morning, save 1 Ai stock, and really don’t feel like buying a bunch of stuff now at the highs and potentially sliding back down in a routine sell off.

We should be fine here — but you never can truly tell.

I was in and out of inverse ETFs all day, scared of my own shadow. Every leg lower I stepped in and got stopped out inside minutes after we’d leg right back up. It was one of those see-saw days on a FOMC notes day that I hate. I ended down 68bps — and netted around $2k in day traded profits, in spite of some of the more assholish members inside Stocklabs talking shit to me — attempting to ruin my day.

I am 120% long without any hedges because why the fuck not?

I will be the first to tell you — this is not my type of market and the chop is on par with extreme fuckery — something I eschew whenever I can. The truth is, I need to improve in trading the chop and will never quit trying, so you’re stuck with me sashaying in and out of stocks like a fucking moron until I master it.

MTD +7%
YTD +23.1%

I deserve more.

My health is very wonderful. I feel great and will now go out and enjoy the 80 degree weather.

Markets like the minutes, mostly out of a pavlov styled reflex to buy all Fed minutes. The Fed, mostly, are onboard for 25bps hikes until CPI hits 2%, which will happen sometimes in the 2030s. By that time, Fed Funds rates will be upwards of 15%.

You can access the Stocklabs newswire via this free resource.

NEVERTHELESS, buyers have surprised raped bears again with buy orders. I covered my shorts and bought some RIOT, in order to feeeeeel like I am part of the celebrations. I too would like to pop champagne corks into the faces of bears whilst laughing hysterically — drenched in booze.

I am still down 35bps, but somehow expect to be fooled by all of this and get the feeling I will soon regret closing out my hedges.

We jumped up at the open and soon collapsed under the gravity of technical deterioration. I measure this, as a matter of fact, inside Stocklabs. That’s right, I’m not just an odious visage — but also someone who keenly analyzes these things and likes to believe that I know more than everyone else — mostly due to an overwhelming desire to compensate for the charming life I lead in a most under-achieving manner.

There is no need to over think this. Markets are a bit weak, which doesn’t mean this is “the end” — but instead only means we are taking a little break. Is it possible we can crash? YES — but not likely.

The most likely path is the one we’re on. We had a nice run in January, but now it’s over. The market is all of a sudden skeptical, which means gains will be paired with losses and for the most part markets will CONSOLIDATE and wait for more clarity. This, in my opinion, is what creates an environment for frustration, the hemming and hawing — indecision at a time when traders just want to snort cocaine and create money out from thinned air.

BOTTON LINE: I have a fully long book paired with a 31% position in SQQQ, down 35bps for the session. My intent is to close out the SQQQ and hopefully get a little upside before I reopen it and pray for the worst.

I closed the session -58bps — losses mitigated because I am a professional. I am 40% SHORT on top of my 100% long book — but my soul, when you look at it, is black. I want stocks to crash and markets to halt for months, even though it would lock up my assets and cause my wife to panic. That’s ok — because I am willing to sacrifice for the greater good.

Today was an 85% down day, with heavy losses FESTOONED across the market place. This new demeanor has much to do with SPIRALING HIGHER RATES, now encroaching 4% on the 10yr.

This, you should know, is the worst case scenario for stocks and you should know this now in order to prepare, otherwise your losses will be SEVERE and your lives will be reduced to ruin and rubble.

GOOD DAY.

We thought the market had bottomed due to the elaborate run in January into early February. Rates were down, inflation defeated, the Fed pivoting, the war a non event. Now, all of a sudden, shit isn’t so charming anymore.

The PPI was HOTTER THAN EXPECTED.

The Fed is hawkish as fuck, talking shit.

The war is escalating.

On top of all that, rates are surging right into peak housing time of year. It would be very easy to just close my eyes, buy stocks, and hope for the best. But I am a professional and cannot ignore that writing being scrawled about on the walls. One cannot ignore the fact that the market surged on the expectation inflation had been had and rates were done going higher, perhaps even pricing in rates cuts.

Now we see that isn’t the case, logic should dictate, if I might be so bold, that we should inevitably and presumably COLLAPSE.

I suspect once WW3 kicks off we’ll need to ration gasoline. We won’t need any natural gas, obviously, since none of us would dare pollute the environment with a gas stove. God forbid.

Cuck Natty is back down to $2.

Markets are reeling today, NASDAQ -200. I think the Biden trip to Kiev has something to do with it, since it reminded Wall St how serious the US is about fomenting war over peace. But the more pressing matter is inflation and how markets are projecting its return.

How else can you explain rates soaring?

Markets and the economy cannot function with soaring rates. Last year the Federal Govt paid $800b in interest expense on their debt alone, representing 25% of the entire budget. Your government has squandered the future of this country vis a vie nonsensical entitlement and military programs.

Congrats.

Meanwhile, I’m 90% cash, with just SQQQ on the books now. I sold the open and will reallocate back on the long side after 12:30pm, because those are the rules.

Are you allocated wrongly, into areas of the market that aren’t appreciating enough? This is the essence of underperformance, assets placed in idealogical investments and static for long periods of time in spite of their staid performance.

SIR — you must assess your portfolios for performance at least once per quarter and take out the trash.

In December of 2022, I started buying TSLA in a long term account, using the same methods I used in my 17x ETH expedition. The play was and is simple: Elon Musk is the innovator of our lifetime and his products have already reached critical mass. Therefore, declines in his stock are and always will be a buying opportunity — FOREVER. That’s right, you can come back to this blog in 25 years and see that I was right about Tesla.

My plan is simple enough: buy it on the first of each month and hope it goes down, since I intend to buy it for the next 3 years — like I work there.

Year to date, these are the best performing risk assets.

Last year, all of the cunt media festooned their websites with gloating data points about the world’s richest man losing the most in history.

With the stock +69% YTD, those same cunts haven’t said a word — mostly because they’re cunts.

Why isn’t the market going down with WW3 looming?

The market is betting on 1 billion plus people in the EU and America defeating Russia and their 140 million. The narrative of weakness in the west, due to low military stocks, can quite literally change quickly — providing they all started mass producing weapons again. The major disadvantage of the west isn’t in weapons, but logistics. The war is fought on Russia’s front porch and to get western weapons there, in a hot pan European war, will be very difficult.

All wars, eventually, end with diplomatic terms. Markets are betting on a WW2 belligerence by the west to force unconditional terms unto Russia, a nation without outward allies. The notion of China siding with Russia might turn out to be real — but for now it is clandestine.

I only mention this now because of the plethora of pro war statements coming out of the west today.

"Some worry that our support to Ukraine risks triggering escalation,let me be clear,there are no risk-free options,but the biggest risk of all is if Putin wins" – Jens Stoltenberg
pic.twitter.com/bUJOTM4Hlw

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 18, 2023

EUROPE IS ALREADY INDIRECTLY AT WAR WITH RUSSIA: ORBAN
Sunak Says NATO Should Make Ukraine Security Pledge by July
NATO Secretary General: The risk of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine for NATO is incomparable with the danger of Russia’s victory.
“Ukraine must win the war” – German Defense Minister Pistorius
“The UK will be the first country to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons”

Markets will move in the direction it thinks will be victorious.

The Russian Ruble has been under considerable pressure the past 6 months.

Once upon a time, US markets dropped nearly 40% during WW2 because it was pricing in an Axis victory. When things on the ground and in the sea changed, markets went straight up. I believe the fate of this market, at least for 2023, is directly correlated with the conditions on the ground between Ukraine (NATO) and Russia, which is why I am somewhat fixated on news now.

I can easily blame my friend for invading my house and causing me to lose money this week, and I will. I was unable to get a proper handle on the tape. Have a look at my booked trades this week.

You see all that green you fucking pussies? My core holdings are static, so those are all extra day trades and/or hedges that I hold and close out overnight.

“If you’re so good, how come you didn’t make any money and hang out with us bums?”

Because, unfortunately, my weekly quant happened to have several oil stocks — which were down on avg 7% this week and I also have a fucking OPRA position that is now down 14% or $7k. That was the difference. I am now TRAPPED in OPRA because liquidity dried up.

If I had been wired the fuck into the matrix, I would never have let myself fall prey to a liquidity trap and also I’d do more to protect my downside.

HAVING SAID THAT, in spite of the losses I still traded masterfully and have not lost my touch. I just need to focus more intently on what I am doing and really try for one or two more big days for the balance of February.

I closed 131% leveraged long, no hedges.