Christmas Canceled For Putin: European Sanctions Remain

At a very minimum, the west should thank the benevolent Putin for miraculously finding 500 ISIS oil tankers to bomb. I am sure we’ve toiled away, tirelessly, trying to cut off their funds. In less than 1 month in the field, our enemies friends in Moscow have accomplished this miracle for us.

Even still, the west is unforgiving in Putin’s sins towards the Nazi loving Ukraine and will likely extend sanctions, further fucking themselves and Russia in the process.

European Union countries will probably extend Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia for another six months at the end of January despite improved cooperation in Syria, three European diplomats said.

Lack of progress in implementing this year’s Ukrainian peace accord means the trading bloc has no choice but to prolong the measures, diplomats from pro- and anti-sanctions nations said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are confidential. The EU’s 28 leaders are set to discuss the issue at a Dec. 17-18 summit, German Foreign Ministry chief spokesman Martin Schaefer told reporters in Berlin on Monday.

French President Francois Hollande will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, two days after talks in Washington with U.S. President Barack Obama, with the goal of forging a united front against Islamic State. Russia has stepped up strikes on the militant group after blaming terrorists for downing a Russian civilian plane in Egypt last month and after the Nov. 13 Paris attacks promised to coordinate military action in Syria with France.

I mean, if the guy really wanted to be a dick he’d cut off the natural gas supply to Europe and tell them to bury their frozen dicks in the hot Syrian sand. Everyone deserves a second, sometimes 100th chance. Why not Vlad?

Don’t worry, lads. It’s all paper gains, unless of course he worked out a collar by which he hedged his gains. But I doubt Martin is that diabolically genius. For now, his 2 million share position in KBIO will have to endure a true test that only a select few are able to pass: time.

He’s locked in for the next sixth month’s, unless he’ll need to forfeit the gains back to the company he’s trying to help. So, with about 70% of the float locked up by Martin and his friends, all Marty can do is acquire more shares under a different guise to effect a short squeeze. I think that’s precisely what is happening right now, with the stock at $40.

I told you to stop giving advice on this stock last week–because I knew this was possible. Within 6 months from now, the stock will likely be a fraction of where it is now. Nevertheless, with such a small float and chicanery afoot, don’t expect the bottom to drop out of this until Martin and his friends can affect maximum damage to those short.

We’ve all seen the horrendous price action in hedge fund favorites: SUNE, VRX, MNK, CNX and have maliciously paraded William Albert Ackman around these halls as the billionaire gone awry, clamoring for revenge in a world that is simply working against him.

Well, this morning, the billion dollar Goldman research wizards have confirmed what we already knew: hedge fund hotels are doing really, really bad.

You don’t say?

“The poor performance of favorite long positions has weighed on aggregate hedge fund returns, which entered negative territory during the market correction in August and have yet to recover,” Goldman said in the note

It’s a serious comeuppance, one that can have lasting effects on stocks prices, as these giant asset managers try to salvage their horrendously spiraling lower funds.

The worst since 2008. That’s quite a statement.

In reaction to Friday’s CDC warnings that CMG’s problems with poisonous food is spreading, Wall St. is taking an ax to CMG’s price targets and ratings.

Thus far, three firms have downgraded them (Sterne, Maxim and BofA/Merrill), with BofA slashing its price target from $750 to $470.

In a research note out of Maxim, they like competitors in lieu of this fuckery.

In our view, the spread of E. coli to additional states is likely to amplify top-line uncertainty in the near term. The CDC reported that the E. coli outbreak that had closed 43 Chipotle restaurants earlier this month had expanded beyond the Pacific Northwest into four additional states. Health officials in both WA or OR still believe that produce was the likely source of contamination, though no one has found a specific ingredient. CMG tends to use local sourcing of produce wherever possible. However, in light of the broadening geographic scope of the outbreak, there is a possibility that produce may not be the cause. If this is the case, we would not rule out the possibility of finding of additional cases across the United States.

Although all Chipotle restaurants have reopened, we argue that headline risk is likely to depress traffic for an extended period. We argue that the outbreak now threatens to depress CMG’s traffic nationwide more profoundly for the next few quarters. We now expect that the outbreak could reduce comps by as much as 330 bps in 4Q15, 120 bps in 1Q16, and 40 bps in 2Q16. We model a +0.5% comp for 4Q15 but caution that, in a worst-case scenario, CMG could post its first negative quarterly comp since it was spun off from former parent McDonald’s (MCD – $113.91 – NR) in 2006. We believe that CMG is likely to lose market share in the near term to fast-casual peers, such as Qdoba [owned by Jack in the Box (JACK – $73.95 – NR)], Panera Bread (PNRA – $172.68 – Buy), and Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES – $33.07 – Buy).

We believe that margins are likely to come under more pressure than we had modeled previously. Management has yet to address this directly, but in addition to heightened costs related directly to the outbreak at the affected locations, we believe that management likely will incur costs—at least in the near-term—to provide additional scrutiny of the company’s supply chain management. With the scope of the investigation expanding nationwide, we now expect elevated SG&A expenses in the next few quarters as we believe that the company will need to invest heavily to regain the trust of customers and get them to return.

We are reducing our price target to $585, from $718, to reflect heightened near-term uncertainty on the top line. Although we still regard CMG as a longer-term growth story capable of generating annualized EPS growth of at least 20%, we argue that it is prudent to assign cyclical low multiples until there is more top-line visibility. Our revised $585 price target on CMG is based on a forward P/E ratio target of 24x (reduced from our prior 28x multiple target and representing a cycle-low multiple), as well as our revised 2017E EPS estimate of $24.36. This price target also corresponds to a forward EV/EBITDA ratio of 12.4x using a 2017E base valuation year.

The Chipotle brand is undergoing a severe branding crisis. This is bound to benefit other casual food players, as the company tries to stop fucking poisoning its customers.

As a consumer of CMG, I’ve noticed a significant deterioration in the food quality and the people they hire, as well as store cleanliness. Its become a giant shitstorm and their managers need to fix it before irreversible damage is done.

There are many reasons why oil is cruising lower this morning, down more than 3.3%, nearing the magical $40 per barrel handle. There was congratulatory news this morning, regarding Saudia Arabia supplanting Russia as the top oil supplier to China.

Congrats to the House of Saud, as you fist pump while enjoying the coriolis effect of flushing yourselves down the toilet.

Oil is lower. The dollar is higher, by 0.2%. And S&P futs are off by 0.15%.

What the fuck just happened? Walmart just changed the retail game for sure, by unveiling they’d be moving up those sizzling deals from Monday to Sunday. All of the other retailers are left holding their dicks wondering when they should file for bankruptcy protection.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc has decided that Cyber Monday, the biggest online shopping day of the year, should not start on a Monday anymore.

The world’s largest retailer by revenue will, for the first time this year, launch all its Cyber Monday deals on the Sunday after Thanksgiving rather than the early hours of Monday morning as in previous years.

Cyber Monday’s origins trace back more than a decade when people started using the high-speed Internet access at their workplaces to purchase things they saw but did not buy during trips to the shopping mall over the weekend after U.S.

Thanksgiving, which falls on the fourth Thursday in November.
Now, with Internet access readily available, the logic of limiting the event to a weekday no longer holds, said Fernando Madeira, chief executive of Walmart.com.

“The customers have changed but Cyber Monday hasn’t changed with them,” Madeira told Reuters. “Now everyone has Internet.”

Damn right Walmart: everyone has the internet and you just won the holiday season with this plot twist.

Seriously, I can’t think of a way Target can compete with Walmart now that the deals have been moved up to Sunday. Think about it. You’re online, searching for tubed socks, on Target.com and it’s a sunday and there’s zero deals. But then you head on over to Walmart.com and tubed stocks are 10% off the regular price.

The fuck? It’s a no brainer.

The only way Target can save itself is if they did the unthinkable and went full retard by declaring “CYBER-SATURDAY.” Holy shit, I feel like a criminal just saying that. But you know damned well they’d never do that.

I think I might finally toss in the towel on stocks in 2016 and focus where my true strengths lie, global macro calls. I can easily accomplish this end via ETFs. As an example, had I just bought and sold SPY this year, using Exodus‘ OS signals, I’d be up 9% on just 28 trades. My actual YTD gains are almost twice that; but there is distinct value in  having a system in place to reduce anxiety and adhere to limits.

As we enter the week of National Festival, a time when fat people reign supreme, sloshing through gallons of buckets of gravy, I am reminded of two more deadly sins: greed and wrath.

Very soon, a fatter America will barnstorm through their local Walmarts and Best Buys, to be first in line to attain discounts, to kick off the Black Friday holiday season, a time when Santa Claus delivers high end electronics to your bratty kids plastic trees.

Here are the best performing ETFs, historically, during the month of December.

The homies caught my eye here. Under further inspection, it appears the homebuilders may in effect be a fucking buy heading into year end. Pardon my gratuitous usuage of profanity. I am unaccustomed to civilized life, having grown up in the depraved sewers of Brooklyn, NY–before it was gentrified and shit.

Homebuilder seasonally swag

Top homie pick: TOL

Data provided by Exodus

Everything is back to normal. Our dog eating, child enslaving, friends from the far east have lifted the ban on IPOs that has been in place for the past 5 month’s. On this news, I expect the grandest of rallies, as all of China’s finest come out to celebrate this event and support their wonderful, shit laden, corporations.

The CSRC said that IPOs of 28 companies will be allowed to proceed by the end of the year, after they were suspended in July following a market rout. The 28 will probably tie up 3.4 trillion yuan ($533 billion) in subscription, according to the median of six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Anyone else excited, like erection in pants happy, over this?

Congratulations to the following gents on attaining a position inside of iBankCoin’s Peanut Gallery. Let’s hope you’ve got what it takes to avoid expeditious firing.

Exodus’s own Jungle Girl- Twitter acct pending.

@morykan

@varelresearch

@RampCapitalLLC

@Shaq48_Trading

@activiststocks

@firehorsecaper

As for those who didn’t make this cut, do not lose faith. I am sure a third tier site will accept your services, or worse: Seeking Alpha. The method by which the bloggers are selected is proprietary 22nd century technology. We delve, mind you, into your Twitter accounts and search for ‘grave depravity’ and ‘lunacy’. Upon  finding any, contestants are excluded from the pool of potentials. Bear in mind, iBankCoin is in a league of its own, a champion of champions, your favorite bloggers favorite blog. So, with that in mind, we must adhere to the strictest standards in the business.

Including staff, total writers that travel these halls now total an impressive 20.

Please welcome the new lads and follow them on Twitter.

Out of many emails, thus far, I’ve chosen just 3 of you. I wanted to choose 5; but you’re all so flawed and terribly ridiculous people: I can’t get myself to permit you to blog for me.

I am unsure if I will permit anymore persons into these hallowed halls. I intend to solidify my decision by tomorrow, so if there’s anyone out there with a modicum of decorum, who’s interested in writing for IBC, now is the time to contact me to let me know: flybroker @ gmail.com

Totally disgusted,

Good day.