iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,471 Blog Posts

Trump’s Campaign Manager Arrested Over Bizarro Assault Claim

The media was foaming at the mouth today, on the pomp announcement that Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, was arrested for assaulting Michelle Fields.

Before you watch the video that was produced by Trump of the crime, read Michelle’s letter, penned on 3/10/16.

I never sought to be part of the story.

On Tuesday night, I went to cover Donald Trump’s press conference at the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida. I was looking to cover the event like I have covered many live political events for Breitbart News, including an uneventful Trump press conference in Palm Beach the week before.

Addressing the gathered reporters and the nation at large, Trump was in an especially jovial mood Tuesday night. The networks just declared he had won the Mississippi Republican primary and, during his speech, that he won Michigan Republican primary as well.

I wasn’t called upon to ask a question during the televised press conference, but afterwards Trump wandered around, stopping at every reporter to take their questions. When he approached me, I asked him about his view on an aspect of affirmative action.

Trump acknowledged the question, but before he could answer I was jolted backwards. Someone had grabbed me tightly by the arm and yanked me down. I almost fell to the ground, but was able to maintain my balance. Nonetheless, I was shaken.

The Washington Post’s Ben Terris immediately remarked that it was Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who aggressively tried to pull me to the ground. I quickly turned around and saw Lewandowski and Trump exiting the building together. No apology. No explanation for why he did this.

Even if Trump was done taking questions, Lewandowski would be out of line. Campaign managers aren’t supposed to try to forcefully throw reporters to the ground, no matter the circumstance. But what made this especially jarring is that there was no hint Trump was done taking questions. No one was pushing him to get away. He seemed to have been happily answering queries from my fellow reporters just a moment before.

Many people have been asking me on Twitter and in emails what exactly happened Tuesday night. I hope this article answers those questions and I can get back to reporting the news, not being a part of it.

Okay now here’s the footage of Corey trying to forcefully drag Michelle to the ground.

Trump had this to say about the horrid crime.

“I’m very glad that we were able to produce the tape because I don’t see anything. I see virtually nothing,” he told Hannity. “And we’re going to destroy a man’s life over this?”

“If I had not have produced the tape, it would have been much worse,” Trump told Hannity. “Because look at the statement she made, I had to write it down, ‘forcefully thrown reporters to the ground, campaign managers aren’t supposed to forcefully throw campaign managers to the ground’. What ground? I mean, if you look at her face, her expression doesn’t even change.”

“She grabbed me and she had something in her hand, I don’t know what it was,” Trump told Hannity. “It looked like it could have been a pen. But you know, from the standpoint of where we are, who knows what it is. So she grabs me and then he maybe brushed her aside, and we’re going to destroy his life for that? I don’t think so.”

The fuckheads over at the Cruz camp took a very typical position.

“Unfortunately, this abusive behavior seems to be part of the culture of the Trump campaign. Personal attacks, verbal attacks, and now physical attacks have no place in politics or anywhere else in our society,” campaign spokeswoman Alice Stewart said in a statement.

What sort of chicanery is this? Do these people think we do not have eyes in our heads to see this is bogus? It’s one thing to dislike Trump and want to beat him. It’s entirely another thing to try to ruin some guy’s life because he’s a means to an end.

These politicians are going to burn in hell.

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Japanese Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2011

Considering we’re the marginal buyer of all of their crap, I’d say this is more of a rebuke of our goldilocks story than theirs.

Output slumped 6.2 percent after rising 3.7 percent in January, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 5.9 percent drop.

“Exports remained weak amid a slowdown in demand in China and other emerging Asian nations,” Yasuhiro Takahashi, an economist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, said before the data. Even taking out the impact of Toyota, overall production was weak, and the economy is at risk of contracting again this quarter, he said.

Japanese GDP is forecasted to come in at 0.6%. Should it post a negative number, it would represent a recession for the Japanese economy, the second since Abe took power in 2012.

So much for Abenomics.

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Cashin: NO MORE RATE HIKES FOR 2016

Does anyone see how stupid this line of work is, or is it just me? Just the other day, consensus opinion was building around an April Fed rate hike and most assuredly one in June. Now, post Yellen speech part two, all previously scheduled rate hikes have been henceforth canceled and your local magistrate will enact the ancient law of prima nocta, declaring ‘first rights’ to your bride on her wedding night.

Fuck this shit.

NOTE: If anyone wants to give blogging a shot, email me [email protected]. Be sure to let me know your Twitter handle.

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Larry of America Kudlow: Lower Rates is a Sign of Weakness

This is rudimentary stuff, taught in the very first class of economics 101. But it bears repeating, since many people still don’t seem to grasp what’s taking place here. Because the Fed is opting for a lower rate environment, inherently, that means the economy and the global economies that were now serve, are WEAK, not strong. Each and every time a Fed official gets on the teevee and tell you that the economy is doing terrific and how American exceptionalism is causing us to outpace the catamites in Europe, they are lying.

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Dr. Copper Revealed to be a Fraud

We all suspected China was building some sort of copper weapon to destroy democracy and free will. While we haven’t sorted out the exact details, thus far, there is incontrovertible evidence suggesting that they’ve been hoarding Dr. Copper like abject morons, much to the detriment of investors who bought the whole global growth ruse–hook, line and sinker.

According to Hoffman and Gilmartin, real copper demand from China is 54% lower than what has been previously reported.

The Chinese have been using copper to engage in trade, in some a backwardly barter system caused by the stupid nature of the Chinese financial fraud that we support today.

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The decline in Chinese copper demand for household appliances and electronics since 2011 doesn’t jibe with the headline demand statistics, the analysts note, which show the country’s total copper demand increased of 45 percent from 2011 to 2015.

Moreover, when benchmarked against cement—another material widely used for construction purposes—copper’s rapid rise in China looks particularly suspicious. While cement intensity, or percentage used per square meter, rose 11 percent in the time period, copper intensity surged an astounding 117 percent.

Putting all this together, Hoffman and Gilmartin conclude that “real Chinese demand may be 54 percent lower than anticipated” after stripping out the demand for copper tied to the carry trade.

This is astounding, really. The discrepancy between faux demand and actual demand is in the order of 7 million metric tonnes. But, no worries, the Chinese have just enacted policy that will permit their pension funds to invest in common stocks.

After all, what could go wrong?

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Markets Roar Higher; Investors Scramble For Yield

If you’re encumbered by a slew of higher interest rate plays, you might need to switch your policy–post Yellen’s dovish speech. I suppose people didn’t believe her during her last testimony, especially following the speeches of her lieutenants. I think it’s fair to say there is a schism at the Fed, two distinct parties with varying views on monetary policy.

As markets rise to daily highs, the Dow up triple digits and the NASDAQ higher by more than 70, underneath the surface of this rally is a depraved scramble for yield.

Gold is higher, due to a seemingly easy American central bank strategy.

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Gold stocks are, by far, the biggest winners of the day. The sector, as a whole, is higher by more than 5%.

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Without the specter of higher rates, asset allocators are racing towards the safety of U.S. treasuries, whose yields are considerably higher than our European counterparts.
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The dollar has fallen by the wayside. Yellen has mentioned the stronger dollar as something of an albatross. The currency wars are here to stay.

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Utilities continue to outshine every sector in the market, year to date. With gains in excess of 16%, utilities continue to attract investors who’ve shed their books of energy related dividend payers, in favor of something a bit less toxic.

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The market’s devotion to every syllable of what the Fed says never ceases to amaze me. Come tomorrow, there might be a hawkish Fed comment that shifts today’s dichotomy. But for now, it appears the market will be supported by a globalist Federal Reserve policy, one that offers succor to multi-nationals and preys upon European exporters.

At some point, actual profits and actual revenue growth will matter. For now, we can all pretend that every ailment of the economy has been remedied and lower interest rates is precisely all we need to permit XYZ to beat analyst earnings expectations.

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Yellen: The Fed is the Central Bank for the World

Back in the old days, the Federal Reserve would never, ever, dare to utter the words ‘global growth’ when describing American monetary policy. There is no doubt that the world has changed and American policy must now envelope the economies of China, Europe and other major trading partners. This isn’t to the benefit, per se, of the America people. Make no mistake, our multi-national corporations are the ones who benefit most from a policy that heralds in easy money for an undetermined amount of time. By extension, speculators in the stock market also stand to benefit. As corporate profits are bolstered by robust foreign markets, the share prices should appreciate here.

My position, as I’ve stated here on numerous occasions, is that the Fed should not hike rates. Deflationary forces are clearly the greater risk. Aside from my abhorrently high grocery bill, which has more to do with my aversion to GMOs than the availability of cheap produce and meats, prices have been dropping–across the board.

This is a significant speech and part in Federal Reserve history. Yellen is effectively on record saying that our central bank is beholden to foreign markets–because of the fact that so many of our corporations have picked up and left American lands, abandoned and scuttled factories, in favor for slave labor abroad. The slaves shall toil, working feverishly to produce products to be sold in Walmart and Target. Americans will buy those wares, at exceedingly cheap prices. But the funnel is narrowing. The availability of respectable paying jobs is lessening.

Twenty years hence, I doubt our infrastructure will be able to support the policy of chasing cheap labor around the globe in order to produce products to be sold cheaply to an orangutan brain’d consumer, who by then will be wholly dependent on government assistance.

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The Math is Simple: “The Fly” Wins Again

In spite of the efforts of Yellen’s cohorts at the Fed, she struck a dovish tone during today’s speech and the market was elated by it.

However, her thinking is fairly binary with regard to the economy and the role she intends to play in it. It’s almost as if she’s resigned herself to be the fireman. Effectively, she intends to hike rates so that she can lower them later when the economy weakens.

Still, the Fed can hike if the economy grows faster, she said. But if the economy falters, she added, the Fed can “provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus.”

“I consider it appropriate for the committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy,” Yellen said in the text of prepared remarks Tuesday. “This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC’s ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric.”

“Yellen has doubled down on the dovishness from the March statement and press conference,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. “Global economic developments are cited very prominently.”

Yellen said the FOMC “would still have considerable scope” to ease policy if rates hit zero again, pointing to forward guidance on interest rates and increases in the “size or duration of our holdings of long-term securities.”

“While these tools may entail some risks and costs that do not apply to the federal funds rate, we used them effectively to strengthen the recovery from the Great Recession, and we would do so again if needed,” she said.

Stocks are ripping to the upside, with notable weakness still found in basic resources.
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Crude is giving zero fucks about Yellen’s speech.
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To recap: SPY up + TLT up + XLE down= “The Fly” wins again.

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Commodities Continue to Lose Steam; Treasuries Buoyed Higher as Risk Aversion Reemerges

The rally of the past 5 weeks was built on a house of sugar. It was an alluring idea, one wrought with fantasy and wonder. The global economy, out of nowhere and without reason, was bottoming and 5 years of broad commodity sell offs were coming to an abrupt end. Steel prices were on the mend. Copper and oil careened higher, helping the shares of WLL, FCX and many other surge to recent heights.

While nothing is etched in stone and it’s all very possible that the house of sugar might solidify and become a monument for decades to come, it’s not very likely, is it?

Don’t look now, but oil and copper are on a losing streak, damaging the narrative of reflation and the need for higher interest rates.
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Conversely, money keeps pouring into treasuries. Why do I call it an ark? It’s a play on words, really. It symbolizes safety and a method by which the layman, or giraffe, might escape the catastrophic floods to come. In this case, the floods will be more in a metaphorical sense, as a deluge of sellers hit the market in a frenzy to sell what’s rapidly losing value.
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I remain 50% short XLE, 25% long TLT and 25% long SPY.

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Fed’s Williams is Talking Nonsense Again

Fed’s Williams is out talking reckless again, ahead of Chair Yellen’s speech due today. The highlights are more of the same from a very dangerous and delusional Fed.

You want something actionable? Fear this. They are building consensus around the idea that inflation is the real threat. Apparently, 0.6% GDP growth means ‘we’re on track’ and ‘we’re chugging along’.

These are dangerous people and their actions are becoming less and less predictable.

“My view is essentially, let’s just stay on track. Let’s not get sidelined by the noise and distraction commentary can sometimes cause.”

“We’re not quite where I’d like us to be, but recent developments have been very encouraging and add to my confidence that we’re on course to reach our (inflation) goal,” he said, citing an uptick in oil prices and a stabilizing dollar.

Overall, the U.S. economy “keeps chugging ahead,” he said.

“The last few months have actually been looking really good on CPI and PCE prices and I do want that to continue,” he said during an audience Q&A session.

“If it continues for the next few months, I will be pushing forward my inflation forecasts,” Williams said.

“There is some upside risk that we’ll hit our inflation target sooner.”

“I don’t see a looming global crisis,” Williams said, adding that he continues to think China will avoid a hard landing.

If the U.S. economy performs as well as it did last year, it will be able to handle steady interest rate increases in 2016, Williams said.

“If we have inflation moving clearly towards 2 percent, if the U.S. economy continues to improve the way it did last year…I think the economy could easily handle two or more (rate) increases this year,” he told reporters.

Should Yellen mirror this refuse, I expect markets will take a material turn for the worse, as this is extremely hawkish rhetoric.

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