HSBC: ‘Korea is Barely Breathing’; The Fed Will Not Raise Rates

Fascinating discussion on Bloomberg, with the co-head of Asian economic research, Frederic Neumann. Some of his key points were the deleterious condition of the Korean economy. China’s main concern being stability, on a month to month basis. And, Japan being out of tools to control their currency, essentially relying upon prayer to bail them out.

Lastly, given all that he’s seeing in Asia, he doesn’t think the Fed will move any time soon, with regard to interest rates.

China, China, China.

He said it about 100 times in 3 minutes. I am pretty sure China gives Carl nightmares. He said he’d buy Apple back if he felt better about…(you guessed it) China.

Additionally, the king of making companies initiate share buybacks said he’s not a fan of buybacks. I guess this is Carl the human being talking and not Carl the hedge fund manager.

There’s no reason for me to keep posting D. Gartman content, since no one really gives a shit about him except me. I have a penchant for certain teevee personalities and I’m always interested in what anyone has to say. In spite of the fact that the majority of these people have the intelligence quotients slighty higher than an ameba, I find strongly worded opinions interesting, nonetheless.

Gartman thinks Europe is going to start doling out ‘helicopter money’ in Europe.

What is helicopter money? Essentially, it’s giving money away to people in the hopes they will spend it and cause inflation. To be honest, they’re already doing that, via the purchase of corporate bonds. Yields depress and companies are able to buy all sorts of shit with the free money they’re borrowing. Look at Japan and how companies are able to borrow hundreds of millions without any interest rate. FREE MONEY.

In the truest sense of helicopter money, the government will give money away to everyone, not just corporations. They can do this in the form of a one off payment, or a tax rebate.

Fun times.

I am long gold.

For the record, I am not George Soros. It was merely a coincidence that I announced my longs in gold and gold miners on the same day as my dear friend, George.

Having said that, the most diabolical investor since Jay Gould, the King Maker, George Soros is out with bearish views tonight, in a Wall Street Journal interview.

Amongst his chief concerns are China’s capital flight, Europe’s migrant crisis, BREXIT, just to name a few. He’s sopping up gold and gold miners, as well we taking derivative bets against stocks.

“China continues to suffer from capital flight and has been depleting its foreign currency reserves while other Asian countries have been accumulating foreign currency,” Mr. Soros said. “China is facing internal conflict within its political leadership, and over the coming year this will complicate its ability to deal with financial issues.”

Mr. Soros worries that new troubles will arise in China partly because he said the nation doesn’t seem willing to embrace a transparent political system that he contends is necessary to enact lasting economic overhauls. Beijing has embarked on overhauls in the past year but has backtracked on some efforts amid turbulent markets.

Some investors are beginning to anticipate rising inflation amid recent wage gains in the U.S., but Mr. Soros said he is more concerned that continued weakness in China will exert deflationary pressure—a damaging spiral of falling wages and prices—on the U.S. and global economies.

Mr. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU.

“If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general Exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable,” he said. Still, Mr. Soros said recent strength in the British pound is a sign that a vote to exit the EU is less likely.

“I’m confident that as we get closer to the Brexit vote, the ‘remain’ camp is getting stronger,” Mr. Soros said. “Markets are not always right, but in this case I agree with them.”

Other big investors also have become concerned about markets. Last month, billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller warned that “the bull market is exhausting itself” and hedge-fund manager Leon Cooperman said “the bubble is in fixed income,” though he was sanguine on stocks.

Mr. Soros’s bearish investments have had mixed success. His firm bought over 19 million shares of Barrick Gold Corp. in the first quarter, according to securities filings, making it the firm’s largest stockholding at the end of the quarter. That position has gained more than $90 million since the end of the first quarter. Soros Fund Management also bought a million shares of miner Silver Wheaton Corp. in the first quarter, a position that has increased 28% so far in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, gold has climbed 19% this year.

But Mr. Soros also adopted bearish derivative positions that serve as wagers against U.S. stocks. It isn’t clear when those positions were placed and at what levels during the first quarter, but the S&P 500 index has climbed 3% since the beginning of the second period, suggesting Mr. Soros could be facing losses on some of those moves.

Sleep tight longs.

This is the most pornographic clip I’ve ever laid my eyes upon. Believe me, in my days, I’ve gazed at lots of bear porn and I’ve never seen anything like this before.

Peter Schiff, from some stupid firm that buys a lot of gold, went to work by scaring the shit out of the viewers of Fast Money today. Much to Tim Seymour’s credit, he took Schiff and his porn schtick to task, calling him out on what he believed was supreme bullshit of the very first magnitude, uninvestable horseshit flung upon a depraved audience in order to ‘sell more books.’

One of these gents was the villain, the other the hero. Can you guess who was who?

I was very much delighted by this back and forth, as P. Schiff usually gets away with his moronic design without a rebuttal. Thank heavens Melissa Lee broke up this exchange before the fistacuffs came out.

Even still, deep in my bones, I believe Schiff is correct, but not in the way he thinks. World currencies will crash in harmony, not just dollars. Moreover, I believe if this end game plays out, you and I will be much more interested in killing thy neighbor for fresh water supplies than to worry about the value of stocks.

The grim scenario that Schiff lays out is one of the black swan varietal. He delivers his sermon with extreme confidence, which makes his words sound all the more believable. But he’s guessing, just like everyone else. Although I am bullish on gold and treasuries, I do not believe the end is near, at least not yet. Governments can do a lot more, stringing this out for another decade or so, before the default of all of the sovereign debt occurs. I’ve said this before, we are merely in the 2nd inning of the end game, the final game the stock market will ever play.

Watch the Schiff v Seymour Battle Royale here, LIVE!

I guess UBS is tired of paying asshole financial advisers 300% of their trailing 12 to join their ranks. In addition to firing a bunch of TPS report writing misfits, they’re reducing adviser recruitment by 40%. This is horrid news for all of the headhunters out there who prey on both advisers and employers to provide them with the money they need to shovel potatoes into their fat mugs.

It’s worth noting, UBS is taking a totally different approach than other large investment banks, who are cleaving their bond and investment banking departments, in order to make room for a most ridiculous people on the face of the earth: brokers and advisors.

The headcount reduction will mostly hit middle and senior managers, including some at the unit’s main offices in Weehawken, New Jersey, and New York, Tom Naratil, president of wealth management for UBS in the Americas, said in an interview. UBS declined to provide a specific number of cuts. The role of regional manager also will be eliminated, with some promoted and others reassigned, the Zurich-based lender said Wednesday in an internal memo.

The Swiss bank plans to decrease by 40 percent the number of financial advisers it recruits from competitors and how much it spends on those efforts starting this month, Naratil said. UBS declined to give current recruiting figures. The bank scooped up dozens of advisers last year when Credit Suisse Group AG exited U.S. wealth management.

“We took advantage of that,” Naratil said. “That’s one of the reasons why we can step back from the recruiting table.”

The Swiss never lose, unless of course you count the 50% drops in both UBS and CS shares as ‘losing.’

One would expect nothing less from the primordial part of planet earth. In the part the world where civilization was born, but yet to undergo enlightenment, Egypt is doling out 10 year sentences for people who illegally exchange their piece of shit currency for U.S. dollars.

The people of Egypt are supposed to suffer under the pangs of a rapidly depreciating currency, and like it, without taking any recourse for their family and loved ones.

The government increased jail time for black market trading to as long as 10 years and raised fines, the cabinet said in an e-mailed statement. Other amendments to the central bank law give the governor the authority to suspend currency bureaus’ licenses and impose fines for violations. The changes still need to be approved by parliament.

The central bank mostly blames speculators for weakening the pound, which has lost about a fifth of its value against the dollar in the official market since the start of last year. To help attract funds from the black market, Egypt has hiked interest rates and eased restrictions on dollar deposits in banks.
The efforts have yet to bear fruit. In the unregistered market, the pound changes hands at about 10.94 per dollar, compared with the official level of 8.88, according to three dealers surveyed by Bloomberg on Tuesday.

If you try to assist your fellow man in exchanging one currency for the next, YOU GET TEN FUCKING YEARS IN ASS RAPING PRISON!

Gratis.

Crazy as a fucking watermelon with training wheels, Marc Faber, offers some sound advice in this clip. With corn, wheat and soybeans all moving higher, he likes potash stocks here, likening them to the depressed mining sector earlier in the year–before their gigantic runs.

It makes sense, if food commodities hold current levels, or even higher.

Shares of MOS and POT come to mind, both down in the area of 35% over the past 12 months. Other potash makers include IPI, AGU, CF and TNH.

These stocks have been fucking ramshackled, so it’s a ballsy call.

This is the stupidest fucking company I’ve ever laid my eyes on. They must waste $100 per mailing, on the phone books they send to total strangers, trying to trick them into buying $10,000 couches. Fuck you very much, I am not in the least interested, especially with three kids in the house who have a distinctive disregard for anything of value, not to mention a dog that shits and pisses wherever the hell she pleases.

RH just vomited up the bullshit in the after-hours, offering a sober outlook for the future of this retarded furniture company.

Restoration Hardware sees FY17 $1.60-1.80 vs $2.66 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; rev lowered to +1-3%

“Our near term business performance is being pressured by the continued headwinds in the markets impacted by energy and currency, as well as a general slowdown in the luxury consumer market. In addition, the costs associated with RH Modern production delays and investments to elevate the customer experience, the timing of recognizing membership revenues related to the transition from a promotional to a membership model, and a more aggressive approach to rationalizing our SKU count to optimize inventory, are expected to negatively impact our fiscal 2016 adjusted diluted EPS outlook by approximately $0.90 to $1.00. While there is uncertainty regarding the headwinds impacting revenues, we expect many of the cost and margin related issues to be short term in nature.

“Despite our recent difficulties, we remain the leading luxury home brand in the world, with a clear path to $4 billion to $5 billion in North American revenues with mid-teens operating margins. The two fundamental strategies that get us there – the expansion of our product offer and the transformation of our real estate – remain well on track.”

 

Did these fuckers just blame higher oil prices for the lack of side table sales?

Noteworthy: Jungle Girl nailed it.

The stock is careening lower in the after hours, off by 14%.

Don’t forget, when the crisis struck in 2008, oil was well north of $100. It was a blend of fuckery, unbelievable to most. Asset prices spiraled lower, as commodity prices soared, leaving most penniless at the pump. Markets climbed higher again, as commodity prices raced higher. My raw commodity index in Exodus was up a little more than 1.5% today, stretching its YTD gains north of 10%.

Simultaneously, the flight for yield continues, providing succor for the shares of TLT–which have been on a relentless climb higher since January the first. Let’s also keep note of the rise in gold, higher by 1.5% today, boosting the mining sector by 4%. It’s worth noting, I took positions in GLD, AU, NEM and AUY today, as part of a core thesis pivot from cash into gold.

The market isn’t supposed to be pricing in deflation via TLT and inflation via GLD at the same time. It is because of this toxic concoction of a perfidious nature that I am inclined to believe a ‘risk off’ hedge is being built into a Vixless, lazy river, drift upwards in equities.

Volatility is nil.

Complacency is at new highs.

Commodities are ripping.

The dollar is sinking.

Govt yields are sinking.

The BOJ and the ECB are artificially reducing borrowing costs for sovereign and less than stellar corporate debt.

Eventually, this has to end, with the depreciation of fiat currencies, from which all of this chicanery is financed under.

Both gold and treasuries are the safest bets in a world filled with financial engineering and fuckery, largess.