Minor Fly Slump Underway

I’ve been listing for the past few weeks, mostly voluntary, as I’ve been disinterested in the tape. I closed at session lows -66bps and have 115% of my equity exposed, with a 10% short. This blend that I have isn’t designed for gains — but preservation of capital. I truly believe a pullback is imminent — but I do not have the balls to sack up and go net short yet.

Ergo, I hide in risk averse stocks, trading sparingly, hoping for resolution.

Let’s face it, the market has been wonderful and if it “consolidated” a little bit — no one would lose sleep over it. August looms and then after that the horrors of September.

On the other hand, I have no evidence to support these hunches. Markets are close to annual highs and all of the doomsayers have been dispatched. My pause is rooted in my desires and my desires are because of some fucked up episode of my childhood. I am fully aware of this and constantly beat against the current.

Let me be clear: I am not net short. I am actually positioned very bullish. But the VIX is low and the waters are very calm. Tomorrow I am heading to the beach for a day of relaxation and will likely trade very little. But in between frisbee tosses I will lurk and look and make sure my positions aren’t getting wrangled.

Slow trading day for me, out of choice. I see the rotation into oils and ag and other risk averse names and posses some reticence about chasing those fuckers into the sewers.

Let’s be frank and honest here, shall we?

Russia isn’t going to “freeze Europe” unless it truly has to. Why not keep collecting dollars and Euros from your enemies whilst you can? The only true occasion of Europe freezing will be when a hot war busts loose between the homosexuals of NATO and Russia. Until then, Urals crude will trade at a steep discount to Brent and all major rallies in oil sticks thwarted by magical fucking forces.

These same magical forces, sorcery even, keeps everything going rather swimmingly. It would BEHOOVE you to bet against the dominant forces of the GLOBOHOMO.

As you sit there in your plush leather chair enjoying a scotch and cigar, thinking about Barbie, just know that to speak out against the GLOBOHOMO is on par with racism or even worse TRANSPHOBIA. As a good pagan fearing American, you should simply accept these new brave policies as progressiveness and embrace the plummeting IQs and dilapidation of PAX AMERICANA as an organic means of destroying something that was once great — but no longer possesses the eternal fortitude to fight.

Those who cannot fight will eventually be defeated.

Down 42bps, no hedges at the moment.

It must be stated, in spite of the fact that I really don’t want to waste any time talking about this subject. For months and months Musk has been making, in what I feel are, positive changes at Twitter. My daughter, on the other hand, has lamented the changes — because she preferred the censorship bureau — mainly because she’s A-political and wasn’t subject to censorship. Nevertheless, the changes Musk made at Twitter were a net benefit for freedom loving people of the world.

But now he’s changed the name of the app and company to X corp. I suppose it’s his prerogative and he can do whatever the hell he wants — but to say I am ‘xing” now instead of “tweeting” isn’t very “verby” and complicated.

His goal is to turn X into “the largest financial institution in the world.”

https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1683352920610295815?s=20

He certainly has the eyeballs and once X is selling wares and offering interest on money placed at X Bank — then yes it can become a very large bank.

Here’s my opinion on this change.

I am not like Musk and neither are you. He is the innovator of our time and he’s still young. Let him go and create — perhaps we’ll be pleasantly surprised in the end. Sure, we liked the name Twitter and we liked to “tweet”; but Musk is thinking much larger and it will be fun to watch.

A few random data points for this Saturday.

We are technically strong. Any ideas of us barreling directly to hell should be labeled as fake news and the sender executed for violating state laws.

Aggregate earnings busted loose last quarter. It appeared, at the time, we were dying. But in hindsight — we were in the process of turning it around.

What are the lessons to be learned?

Inflation was caused by the fucking COVID stimulus checks you stupid piece of shits. The FOMC has been running gambits forever and never caused the type of inflation we saw last year. The only difference was the stimmy checks.

The Fed 100% knew this and used the cover of inflation to hike rates back to a normal range. Understand something, ZIRP was a major problem for central banks — because it prevented them from staving off MASSIVE COLLAPSE in the event it happened. So what they did was — they used COVID and the inflation it would 100% cause by sending the poors TRILLIONS in free money to get interest rates back to traditional levels.

Place aside your hatred for the Fed and please acknowledge the brilliance in these moves.

What are the net results?

People, for a time, enjoyed some money and for a moment had to pay $12 for paper plates. But now ordinary folk, especially retirees, can earn 5%+ in treasuries, effectively stabilizing many pensions.

The rate increases, for whatever fucking reason, did not collapse the economy. I am still trying to figure that one out. My hunch is the upper 5% is so rich now — the lower 95% no longer move the needle and are mostly chaff and/or slave cattle to be spent in wars and factory accidents.

The NASDAQ closed down for the week — but the SPY was up. I listed steady and made +0.4% — closing with a fully long book of conservative stocks with a small hedge. We all want to see the fires accelerate and for strategic loss to be absorbed on a wide scale. HOWEVER, it seems that isn’t in the cards — JUST YET.

In the meantime, we bide our time hiding inside of stocks — making money and stockpiling things for survival. We might stumble upon the BARBIE movie by accident and become egregiously offended by the abject nature of our enemies and how they continue to kick America down into the sewers — drowning the youth in excrement and waste.

This is what we do know.

Inflation has been defeated. The global economy isn’t failing off a cliff. The war in Ukraine is frozen. The dollar isn’t collapsing. The far left is winning. We are all aging.

If, for example, markets tumbled 10% from here we’d still be in an uptrend — but there would be reason for concern. The NASDAQ is DOWN 0.7% for the week and some people out there are acting like the world is ending.

Yes, it’s true — markets haven’t gone up every single day. But it’s also true that the bears haven’t been banking either.

We are in a consolidation mode aka trading sideways — which usually portends a violent move up or down. My bias of course is for a horrendously lower tape amidst volcanos busting with mean fire. Alas, I am rarely entreated with these surprises, so expect more of the same.

At the moment I am 100% long and levered with an SQQQ short at 20% of equity — flat for the session. I am focused on risk averse stocks — because I too am consolidating and cannot truly focus on trading well whilst harangued by broken knees and such.

I have to keep this short, for two reason.

1. I just got back from the pool and need to shower.

2. My kids have their friend from NJ here and I am being forced to see Barbie at 4:50pm.

I have been trading in and out of inverse ETFs to hedge against a long book and so far quite successfully. I am +5bps in an otherwise drab day. I was correct in assuming risk averse was back on the table. I am nearly fully invested now in low beta divvy payers and enjoying the carnage in tech.

My dream, naturally, is for this all to end. This perverted distortion of free market capitalism produced by people who hate me. I’d like very much to see them fail and in doing so make America rise again and become glorious. The interlopers, of course, will be upset by this and if being honest with you — I feel they’ll win because they have the resources and the means. Everyone else, you and me both, are chaff — cannon fodder to be used at their discretion.

There used to be benefits in this global order, when it was benign. But now it’s wholly malignant and I’m afraid the fractures on society are so great, due to the 4th turning, that the only way forward is through the fires.

In terms of professional money management, no one does it better than me. But I do hope you well and for your families to prosper into what can only be described as an acute cataclysm with profound consequences.

Big move in the 10yr today caused me to stop out of my TMF. Although crashing of rates is a conviction trade for me, the timing isn’t now — apparently. I have no interest in sitting around for things to materialize.

Having said that, stocks are cratering, Nasdaq off by 150+ after a series of earnings reports. For the record, I’m not too concerned. On the other hand, now is a good time to hedge.

I’m mostly long secular stocks now, slow growth divvy payers and they’re all up.

What’s happening is called rotation, out of shit stocks into quality. How long it lasts is an interesting question.

For now 35% cash, 15% hedged, the rest in boring names like MDLZ — but I’m up 9bps unlike you — who are likely roasting inside of hell.

Here is my thesis, at least for tomorrow and perhaps into the future.

Rates will decline, which will provide a benefit to the balance sheets of regional banks. With yields dropping, large cap dividend payers will be bought. This might coincide with overall weakness in the tape — because let’s face it — this market is fucking nuts.

The specter of a reversal to the downside is very much in my heart; but I have yet to see any actual evidence that this is happening. Ergo, before getting short — it might be wise to reduce risk and bulk up on lower beta high divvy stocks.

This is my play.

Tactically, I’m up 3% for July, 49% for 2023, and to be honest have nothing to spend the money on. I will never remove it and really need to get myself a S. Dakota trust ASAP. There isn’t a sense of urgency for me to make 50% more or 5% more from now through Fall. I will, however, impose my will upon any tape that possesses violence.

Good day.

If you look at the biggest winners throughout history, you will find them to be companies with very high profit margin. Amazon wasn’t killing it until they started selling cloud services on an enterprise level, which greatly increased their gross margins.

I am going to steer this right back the fuck into Bitcoin and there is nothing you can do about it.

Here are the lowest producing Bitcoin miners.

You see WULF at the very highest margins? Do you want to know how they’re able to achieve it? I’m gonna tell you anyway.

NUCLEAR FUCKING POWERED MINING MACHINES.

While you cunts twiddle your thumbs with windmills and solar panels, the men at WULF are using clean energy that works, via boiling water.

While WULF is small, they’re growing. They produce about 12 BTC per day and there’s a reason why the stock price has been hot. Coming in at #2 on margins is CIFR — again small but highly profitable.

When BTC catapults to new RECOURD HIGHS, you will remember the day I posted this and be grateful for it.

OR, these CEOs of those companies turn out to be criminals and you’ll really hate me.