18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
This is a good example of the very rich being very naive and also retarded. Tim Draper has made so much money in his numerous VC dealings, his ego refuses to acknowledge the undebatable fact that Elizabeth Holmes from Theranos was in fact a giant scam and she’s a criminal.
You can data mine all you want and you will never find a more highly valued semi in the large cap space than NVDA. I get it, MUH gaming and crypto and the company is growing fast — but what in the actual fuck are you people thinking holding this shit at 15x sales?
Do you even know where this shit is coming from? Talk about multiple expansion — if you own this stock in your fund now — you do not deserve to manage money — you fucking idiot.
NVDA reported after the bell and of course crushed.
NVIDIA beats by $0.39, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus (260.13 +4.35) Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $2.05 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.39 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.66; revenues rose 65.6% year/year to $3.21 bln vs the $2.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Non-GAAP Gross Margins were 64.7% vs. 59.6% a year ago For fiscal 2019, NVIDIA intends to return $1.25 billion to shareholders through ongoing quarterly cash dividends and share repurchases. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $3.04-3.16 bln ($3.1 bln +/- 2%) vs. $2.95 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 63.3 percent and 63.5 percent, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
At present values, NVDA is trading +516% above its historical p/s median. Their p/s is up from 4x to 15x over the past three years. In comparison to NVDA, highly valued stocks like AVGO, TXN, and NXPI are dirt cheap at 4-6x sales. If forced to choose just one short and hold it for 2 years, it would be NVDA.
The comments section of this blog is teeming with faggots. There was once a time, not too long ago, when laughter was prescribed and readily accepted here. Those were simpler days, before all of this Twitter nonsense, and I was happy to have been here, living thru it. Now, the discourse on blogs is more or less shit posting by escaped mental patients. I can hear their dogs barking as I read their missives.
The top sector for the day is utilities, an industry as retarded as the people who depend on them most. But there is some potential upside here, especially when the markets crack against the coral reef and the ship begins to take on water and sink. Then the Utes will be glorious, spectacular investments for those seeking safe haven.
According to the Exodus OB/OS oscillator, it is at the bottom of its range, angling sideways and out for a move to the upside.
Inside of this moribund sector of nothingness and emptiness lies zero secrets or anything remotely interesting, just power generating robber barons getting rich off coal.
Look at that there sexy chart, better than any naked model you might find in your neighborhood disco-diner. Might I add that the entire lot of stocks in that sector is too boring to invest into; you’re better off barreling into it with some verve by way of XLU, the designated ETF for this sector.
I bought some today.
Other happenings: I just had some smoked salmon, avocado and a singular slice of tuscan bread, larger than fuck jug of black coffee, and a small piece of black chocolate. My caloric intake is less than 2k per day, of which ~150g comes in the form of protein — 5gs worth of creatine. I am still a numale weakling, in comparison to my previous highs in athleticism, but I’m feeling better and look forward to winding down this cut cycle in about 6 weeks to be replaced by a bulk that will result in shattered jaws and faces, along the eastern seaboard this summer.
If I see you looking at me sideways this summer while in Newport, I’ll make sure to punch your ears off.
There are a lot of things to like about Dan Loeb. For one, he was once an anonymous poster on the Yahoo message boards dubbed Mr_Pink_esq. Truth of the matter is, that poster was largely influential for my writing style and passion about expressing thoughts online. I used to stumble across Mr. Pink’s posts and was captivating by the energy in them, the fuck you style of the prose, and I sought them out all the time. At the time I was short some stock and so was Mr. Pink, so I always looked forward to his rants about how XYZ was barreling towards zero as Mr. Pink and Mrs. Pink sipped on some fine bubbly off the coast of Monaco.
Then there’s this epic piece by Vanity Fair, which I believe marked the beginning of Bill Ackman’s troubles. In it, Dan Loeb poleaxed Ackman in an ‘ill fated’ bike ride to Montauk. Fucking hilarious. “His mind wrote a check that is body couldn’t cash.”
Then there’s the decades of outperformance of Third Point, one of the few large funds still relevant in today’s lexicon of market talk. Like many old legacy funds, his recent struggles with the market have been duly noted and derided by all of the debt laden thousanaires on Twitter.
But maybe Mr. Pink has another trick up his sleeve?
Loeb is increasing his bets against stocks, citing chicanery. But it should be noted, he isn’t net short like Dalio — he’s merely increasing some hedges, which is what hedge fund managers should be doing.
“Investors have become increasingly concerned about multiples, particularly since after many years of low rates, there finally was an alternative to equities in the form of relatively riskless two-year money,” he added.
Indeed, the quarter marked a number of changes, with rising bond yields being one of the biggest market movers.
In the years since the financial crisis, the search for yield had forced most investors into higher than normal stock allocations, fueling a nine-year bull market run that had seen few interruptions. However, major indexes have seen multiple dips into correction territory so far in 2018, and allocations to bonds have been rising as government yields have hit multiyear highs.
However, he said an equity short allocation returned 2.4 percent, “and we intend to further increase short exposure to fundamental single names and quantitative-derived baskets in 2018, and less on market hedges to dampen volatility and reduce net exposure.”
Stock pickers such as Loeb generally like periods of market volatility as it presents pricing opportunities.
“Looking ahead, we still see S&P growth in the U.S. supported by fiscal stimulus in 2018,” he said. “We remain focused on maintaining a portfolio that can deliver compelling risk-adjusted returns across market cycles and will opportunistically adjust the portfolio across expected further waves of volatility.”
Loeb said the firm also is watching the economy “to see if a recession, which we don’t think is close, might be getting closer.”
I’ve got the most mentally ill people in the world reading my blog — absolute faggots, absolutely. And to answer a question in the previous post, “fly, you’re encroaching on 42 and training to enter into physical altercation now?”
I am a man of extreme peace, aside from all of the offensive actions I partake in, and would prefer to live out the rest of my days listening to big band era music, smoking my pipe to a slow sizzle. However, if I ever felt the need to dislocate someone’s jaw, I’d like to be able to do that too. Can you feel me?
Markets are full retardo to the upside and I just did a leg day, which means I’m half handicapped now. Seeing that I am, once again, taking an ax to the brain in SOXS, and today DUST, I did what it says to do in the stock broker almanac. I sold a winner, in order to hang onto a loser.
I kicked out of YINN for a ~$3 gain and will now sit back and watch the market correct and crash, correct again, and then crash even lower.
There’s actually nothing stopping it from going higher today, believe me. Hey, I’ve got that new BZUN taking off and hey look Ma, I swear, I own some SEDG in my quant account. Oh, I swear Ma, just have a look — I’m fucking up 1.3% there for the day. I’m sorry about the cussing, but I get so god damned excited over the stock market and especially when my neatly drawn out narratives take a detour. I’m grateful for detours, but would like to know in advance next time.
What else do I have going higher? Ooh, I’ve got some EVGN, thinly traded, mostly a piece of shit, but higher by 5%!
Ok, I’m gonna go now — time to eat something and drink something. We’ll chat later.
Everyone is obsessed with wearing sunscreen; I’m just the opposite. A person should aspire to posses a warm skin tone, especially when training. No one wants to see your ghostly flabby skin. Pro tip: take sun on both sides of your body, not just your front, otherwise you’ll look like a fucking retard. I know, MUH skin cancer, but that’s largely genetic. Take a fucking DNA test, for Christ’s sake. Also, and do yourselves a favor, and put some skin lotion on your face afterwards, otherwise you’ll age fast and begin looking like a prune by the age of 30.
A lot of men I know only work out their upper torso, manlets pretending to be strong because they have nice biceps. But if you have weak legs, you’ll get knocked the fuck out in a fight. Pro tip: never skip leg day. Last week I nearly killed myself on leg day and will do so today as well, not because it’s easy or because I like to do it — but because it’s hard.
Italian markets are getting hammered, off by 1.3%. I don’t give a shit anymore. I’m sure it’s political. Futures are flat, gold +0.4%, copper +1.6%, and WTI +0.5% — the highest levels since 2014. You can thank President Trump for that too, believe me.
There’s a bunch of big movers this morning. Here’s the scoop.
Gapping up/down: AMRO +67% after M&A deal with LLY, FSLR +2.5% after upgrade; NUAN -15% and LB -3% after earnings/comps; M -4% after dg
Gapping up
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS:
ARMO +67.3% (to be acquired by Eli Lilly (LLY) for $50.00/share, or approximately $1.6 billion, in an all-cash transaction)
FSNN +11.4% (to acquire MegaPath for $71.5 mn)
CRK +6.4% (enters into definitive agreement with Arkoma Drilling and Williston Drilling to acquire certain oil and gas assets located in North Dakota in exchange for common stock)
EVHC +6.2% (Envision Healthcare: KKR (KKR) is said to be putting together an $11 bln plus bid for Envision, according to the NY Post)
Other news:
NGD +5.7% (New Gold appoints Interim COO Raymond Threlkeld as the new President and CEO; Threlkeld succeeds Hannes Portmann, who has left the company to pursue other opportunities)
AQXP +4.9% (Aquinox Pharma and Astellas announce exclusive licensing agreement for Rosiptor; Aquinox to receive $25 mln in upfront payment)
RBS +2.6% (settlement with the US Department of Justice regarding US RMBS investigation)
QCOM +2.3% (approves new $10 bln stock repurchase authorization)
AGS +1.9% (prices secondary public offering of 4.25 mln shares of common stock by Apollo Gaming at $21.50 per share)
XRAY +1.3% (CFO disclosed the purchase of 50K shares worth ~$2.2 mln)
RCL +1% (approved the repurchase of $1 billion of the company’s common stock over the next two years),
Analyst comments:
FSLR +2.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
CVRR +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
GRPN +1.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS)
AIG +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
MPC +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
TTD +0.7% (initiated with Outperform rating and $66 tgt at Oppenheimer)
Gapping down
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
In a nut shell, ISIS has been defeated in Syria. Plan B is underway and at the vanguard is Israel striking Syria on a daily basis. In response to ~20 Iranian missiles fired at Israel last night, Israel lit them on fucking fire.
The IDF struck last night dozens of Iranian military targets in Syria in response to the Iranian rocket attack on Israel at midnight. Quds force is behind attack&has paid the initial price.The IDF remains ready for various scenarios but does not not seek to escalate the situation pic.twitter.com/0Ono9IjpJ9
Time in and again, companies are coming public with multiples that cannot be supported by revenue and sales growth. If you bought SNAP at it’s IPO — you paid an unsustainable 40x sales. Same with SHAK — best in class eatery but trading at an industry high 10x sales.
Three stocks have broken out this years, all of whom underwent harsh drawdowns, whilst still growing. The minor setbacks in their growth trajectory resulted in massive shareholder losses and multiple contraction. After hitting a certain level in valuation, said stocks were sopped up and bid higher. With a little earnings magic, they all took off to the races this year.
SHAK, TWTR, TWLO
So what’s next? I did a search for some high growth stocks in Exodus that underwent valuation consolidation and here are the names that stood out to me.
COHR, IRBT, SNAP, ULTA, YELP
Charts don’t matter in the long term, only valuation.
The world’s largest hedge fund, run by Ray Dalio, is now net short of equities.
This just in from bearshitter in chief, Zerohedge.
All of which brings us today and a report from Bloomberg that shows Bridgewater is outperforming peers this year even after losing money in April… but it is doing it via a massive derisking…
The investment firm has gained about 4% in its Pure Alpha fund in the first four months of this year after a 1% loss last month, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Hedge funds on average returned about 0.3 percent during the first four months of 2018, according to Eurekahedge.
However, the big news was that, separately, Bridgewater’s disclosed shorts against European stocks have now declined by a massive 80% from February to just over $4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
So, the head of research claimed the $22 billion European short was not what you thought it was and now it has been, for all intent and purpose, fully unwound. Bloomberg notes that a spokeswoman for Westport, Connecticut-based Bridgewater declined to comment.
The last 11 disclosures in Europe by Bridgewater have shown the firm is reducing some of its bearish wagers. Three of those stocks were Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, UniCredit SpA and Telefonica SA, which have all seen their share prices rise this year. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index has gained about 2 percent in dollar terms this year, including reinvested dividends, meaning short wagers have not been a profitable trade.
Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the fund made money trading developed-market currencies and rates trading in April, while losing money on its equities and emerging-market currency bets, a second person said.
The strategy has also reduced its net long bets on U.S. equities to about 10 percent of assets from 120 percent earlier this year, that person said.
And finally, the entire fund – all $160 billion of it – is now, reportedly, net short equities.
I kind of, sort. of, empathize with his stratagem, which could very easily take on a Martingale approach as equities spin higher. After all, Dalio is a billionaire cocksucker and I’d much prefer to see him eaten by a zombie than succeed in this trade. However, since I own SOXS and just doubled down on it — I was hoping the proliferation of this idle piece of news might scare people to the point of selling their stocks and buying themselves inside 12 foot graves.
It takes a special sort of clown to get nailed to the wall in DRIP and again in OSTK and again in SOXS — all in a single day. Logic dictates I should shuffle myself sideways and into cash; but I won’t do that because MUH genius.
Yesterday I doubled down in SOXS and now I have a twelve foot grave.
This morning OSTK gapped higher by 7% and I declared supremacy over all homosapiens because of it. Now I’ve been smacked with the homohammer, as I waltz towards an elegant death.
What the fuck do I have going for me on the upside?
A little TZOO from this morning’s purchase, SSC, YINN, and DUST. All in all, it’s a giant exercize in futility. There’s no fucking way I’d tactically trade for clients anymore. You’ve got to be a god damned moron to put yourself thru the rigors of that, and for what!? Fuck around and catch a C level student from FINRA sending out activity letters to your best clients, pitching lawsuits to them.
Your job is to raise assets and grow them in the most cordial way possible. Pay attention to Sharpe ratios, allocations, diversification, and most importantly Exodus OS signals.
As I approach 42, I got to say, I don’t need this shit anymore — dicking around in volatile names like I was 22. There was a time and place when I’d do it and loved it and truly raped the market on a daily basis. As I matured, I learned there were better, more efficient, ways to skin the cat. Trust me when I tell you, the computers know best — and none better than Exodus.
