Fly Buys: $LK, $GUSH, $LABU

I’m simply taking the path of most resistance now, doing the exact opposite of what a smart person might do in the market now. Clearly the market is injured and wanting lower. However, you and I both know — NOTHING CAN STOP THE BUYING. A Trump trade war win is simply one tweet away.

As such, I purchased shares of GUSH and LABU — taking long directional bets in the riskest of sectors. Also, I bought a maximum third tranche of LK — the Chinese Starfucks. This is now my largest position at 15%.

I’m here at Panera enjoying the wifi while strangers cavort inside of my house. My SOXL trade is working and the market looks a little weak. I see crude is lower — but bonds are higher. Oil stock are sharply lower and I think that is going to change soon.

I’m eating a very cheesy sandwich now and the coffee is bad. I’ll be executing trades inside Exodus shortly. Sorry for the curt blog, as I am very busy eating and enjoying the human depravity that travels through Panera.

I’m taking a small respite now, post supper, to communicate the importance of toil to my readers. Now that I’m selling my fucking house, readers are being falsely led to believe this toil I speak of has only now begun to occur.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

For over 20 years I’ve been hard at work, toiling during the day, well into the late hours at night. Often times I’d go on late night drives to the grocery store and buy $400 worth of food at 2am. Or, I’d scrub every square foot of my floors and WASH THE WALLS and trim work until everything shined like new. We are in a constant state of toil at House Fly and we never rest.

Crumbs on the floor?

Get the fuck up now and clean it up.

Stainless steel appliances defaced with a smudge?

Get out of the spray and fix it now!

Just today I fixed a piece of furniture, washed one of my couches, and scrubbed my floors with bleach powder. After scrubbing it, I washed the floors 6 times to make sure all crumbs and dirt were eradicated.

How do I get the grime from the grout?

Easy — oxygen bleach powder.

Ahead of me are 4 bathrooms and tomorrow morning I will need to scrub down the stoneware in the yard, picnic table, and a sundry of small items.

I’m pushing very hard to either sell or junk every fucking item in this house now, appealing to Mrs. Fly’s superstitious mentality with ideas of “this stuff is cursed!” Thus far, I’ve been unsuccessful. I do not want personal belongings anymore and would be very happy sleeping on nothing more than a mattress on the floor — and a hard wooden chair and a small desk to trade and blog from.

Until that dream is accomplished, I toil.

As you all know, no one wants to see the world burn more than me. You know how influencers on Twitter and IG tell people “stay away from those negative influences, man — just totally ditch them — because they’ll bring you down too”? They’d be talking about me, when it comes to the stock market. If you’ve been reading me for long enough, you know that I will fuck with your bull market at every turn. Whenever the market dives lower, BAM — Fly is there proclaiming end of days.

I suppose this has deeper implications, a mental malady of sorts that afflicts me and causes me to be so god damned angry. But I’ve always enjoyed being angry. I feed off of it and it drives me to do great things. No one fucks with me — because I’ll cut their heads off.

You see markets are off by 300 but several things are keeping this shit in order, such as strong AF semis and Apple and WTI crude has rallied fiercely off the lows and junk bonds aren’t too bad either. My play is this, very simply, and forgive me for rushing to the point as I am busy doing other things: sell tomorrow’s rip and buy a fuckload of TVIX.

Also, have a look at my Chinese Starbucks, LK. Very safu.

Cioa.

I sold $TVIX +5.7%, $TZA +2%, $FAZ +6%, $DRIP +28% — because AAPL is up and semis are up and stocks are trying to climb. So I asked myself, ‘would I buy these fuckers now?’ Since the answer was no, I sold them.

With a part of the proceeds, I went long semis — via SOXL.

Wake me up when crude bounces. Until then, down we go. I kicked out TLRY and SWCH, giving my inverses room to run. I’m up 34% on DRIP and have no desire to lock it in.

Separately, I a sick to my stomach seeing SOLY at $27. I just sold the fucker last month at $8 for a quick pop.

On the bright side, junk bonds are little changed- but the 10yr is now 2.22% and TLT is approaching $130.

FUCKED.

Don’t panic yet. Try to bear in mind this is all a self inflicted wound. But it might get away from Trump and spiral, which would be immeasurably bad for markets. My gut tells me Trump will panic if markets start to panic. Here were are now, futures off by 180 and the Chinese media running rare earth stories, implying they’d stop selling them to America — an embargo of sorts. Some people think an embargo of rare earths could ‘devastate’ US supply chains.

“You suggested that rare earths could become one of China’s countermeasures against the U.S.’s unwarranted suppression…What can I tell you is that if anyone were to use products that are made with the rare earths that we export to curb the development of China, then the people of [south Jiangxi province where rare earths are mined] as well as all the rest of the Chinese people would be unhappy,” said the Chinese official, in an interview. The speaker was described as a “relevant official” from the National Development and Reform Commission.

Rare earth imports are a relatively small part of the $420 billion U.S. goods deficit with China, but their worth far outstrips their dollar value. The materials are critical in the creation of such things as iPhones, electric vehicles and advanced precision weapons.

The Chinese tabloid Global Times also reported Tuesday that China is “seriously considering” limiting rare earth exports to the United States. “Based on what I know, China is seriously considering restricting rare earth exports to the U.S. China may also take other countermeasures in the future,” Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief, wrote on his Twitter account. The editor’s account is followed by traders.

The rare earth card: China's reserves account for roughly 30% of the world's total, and the country produces more than 80% of the world's supply. 80% of the US' rare-earths imports between 2014 and 2017 are from China. pic.twitter.com/7rzoQ7QVd1

— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) May 29, 2019

More importantly, WTI is off by 3%, the 10yr is off 4bps to 2.22% and gold is +0.5%. Classic risk aversion. You were told — you ignored — now you pay the price.

Let’s renew our relevant buzzwords. I am going to instill fear in you on a micro-level, then the faggots will pick it up at CNBC, one or two of my readers there, and then broadcast it live for the world. By tomorrow afternoon, everyone will be singing the same funeral song, well on our way to perdition.

The buzzwords are “heading towards recession.”

Renewed trade tensions and a slump in economic data put U.S. profits and economic growth at risk, Morgan Stanley warned Tuesday.

“Numerous leading companies may be starting to throw in the towel on the second half rebound–something we have been expecting,” the bank writes.

Wilson adds that market risks have been reflected in the bond market, pointing to an unusual phenomenon in government debt yields.

The second half rebound has been wilted under the forest fire that is Trump’s trade war. Valuations are excessive. We should barrel back towards the January lows — because the conditions of right now are inexorably worse than back then. Very soon, high yield debt will break lower and then leveraged loans. Once the leverage loan racket has been devoured, all will be lost and you will have yourselves a brand spanking new credit crisis — with all of the wondrous trimmings.

Nasdaq futures are OFF by 40, fucked face. WTI is sharply lower. Bond yields sinking. I fucking told you, I fucking told you not to get involved with all of that bullish fervor. This is what happens when the bulls get that exuberance — 900 points down fuckers. I call that capitulation.

Sorry for sperging out like that. I get really excited when investors get their virtual heads chopped off.

Good night.

You thought stocks were going up today — but you were wrong. I told you not to get involved with dat — and now here you are wallowing in your misery.

TEN THOUSAND SELL ORDERS DESCEND UPON YOU.

I laugh into your face — as your stops get hit and your margin calls mount. Just earlier today, I bought some FSLY — because I want to donate money back to the stock Gods Fastly. God willing, it will trade higher — but I have little to no confidence anything at all trading higher, with exception to value stocks.

Get out there and raise some cash, buy some old man stocks, and hedge via your favorite inverse ETFs. Maximize leverage, and get ready for the drop of your lives!

We’re down a staggering 6bps to 2.267% on the 10 yr, people. We’re in full crisis mode in fixed income, yet stocks are devoid of any sense of fear and cannot recognize danger.

It gets boring telling you what markets ‘should be doing’, when that’s meaningless nonsense. The only thing that matters is what’s actually happening.

So what is happening?

Breadth is at 50% today — but SAAS stocks are +1.6% — led by PLAN and AYX. Semis are weak again and INTC looks like it wants to go to zero. Oil stocks are incredibly weak and, overall, I want to believe stocks are about to break lower. But, truthfully, there is nothing in this tape, aside from bond yields crashing, that would lead me to believe we’re in any real danger, sadly. My Bubble Basket is higher by 1.6% today — hardly the harbinger of doom that I was looking for.

Until we get a break in something, I’ll keep wish casting for a COLLAPSE and hope to god and the heavens we’ll land ourselves into an apocalyptic environ where stocks cannot withstand the selling.