***TRADE WAR INTENSIFIES***

Trade wars are fun and easy to win.

Among its major trade partners, China’s August exports to the United States fell 16% year-on-year, slowing sharply from a decline of 6.5% in July. Imports from America slumped 22.4%.

Many analysts expect export growth to slow further in coming months, as evidenced by worsening export orders in both official and private factory surveys. More U.S. tariff measures will take effect on Oct. 1 and Dec. 15.

“China-U.S. trade friction has led to a sharp decline in China’s exports to the United States,” said Steven Zhang, chief economist and head of research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities.

Nasdaq futures are +15. No one give a shit.

Stocks can have valuation blowouts. Art can have valuation blowouts. Wine can have valuation blowouts. Bonds can never have a valuation blowout — because the yields investors are willing to secure for lending money to government is relative. It is relative versus the prevailing yields of the day.

For example, does America have a ‘bond bubble’ now, with the 10yr at 1.56%? Arguably, we’ve been in a terrific bull market for bonds for more than a decade. To suggest it’s a bubble would imply American bonds are disconnected from reality, or some sort of benchmark.

What can we compare it to?

How about other western nations?

Sure, let’s do that shit.

Austria -0.36%
Belgium -0.29%
Bulgaria 0.42%
Croatia 0.6%
Czech 1.19%
Denmark -0.61%
France -0.34%
Germany -0.63%
Ireland -0.06%
Italy 0.87%
Switzerland -0.91%

Relative to Europe, are American bonds inexpensive or cheap? I’d argue the latter.

Is the economy booming and in the position to send rates higher?

Positively not.

Is everyone in the bond market wrong and could the entire multi trillion dollar complex be in a bubble?

Why fucking bother thinking about that sort of horseshit. It’s a naive and narcissistic position to believe you know more than the market, especially a market that is deeply rooted in heavy analytical research.

We are not in the bond bubble. However, that does not mean bonds cannot ebb and flow from present levels, which demands that you pay close attention to price action and take action if your cost basis gets too far away from prevailing prices.

My bias is for bonds to trade appreciably higher to the upside for a sundry of reasons, the first of which is Trump and his new role at the FOMC. Plus, let’s face it, we’re in the late stages of the American Empire, saddled with $22 trillion in debt that cannot be serviced at higher yields. Governments around the world have too much debt and cannot afford higher rates. Ergo, they’re keeping them artificially low for as long as they can — for as long as they could control markets.

Does it look like they’re losing control?

Yesterday I posted some EXCLUSIVE material inside The Capstone Programme, my mentorship scholarship service, discussing the fate of gold. I had been a long term bull of gold, ever since NUGT was $13. Yesterday, based upon the conditions I saw in the market, I stepped out of all my gold positions and bought DUST.

This was a successful trade.

This is the type of person I am, pal. I’m both a good person and an even better manager of money. I can pick the winners, just like the best of them.

For example, just today I stepped in and bought MNK. That’s a freebie for those too poor or cheap enough to join Exodus.

I bought about 5 or 6 stocks today, one an over weekend hold. Each and every day I buy one stock in the later afternoon and sell it the next day. 1 stock, 1 day, you know the rules.

I’m 8 for my last 10 trades. I am a prolific trader and a genuinely kind and overall great person, the best believe me. I wish you well and hope that you have yourselves a nice weekend.

If you do not like what I just said — fuck off.

I must take credit for this rally, as I called it yesterday. In my mind, I was the only one to own stocks heading into today’s rally; and because of that, I believe that you ought to pay me some sort of tribute — give me some sort of accolade and/or credit. I’m a very sensitive man and need to be told nice things all the time, otherwise I grow bitter and stale and I started throwing hard rocks at people.

Markets are drifting higher, after some morning shenanigans. I see most of my stocks are up and gold is weakening. This all makes sense, being that I sold ALL of my gold yesterday. Well, technically, my Quant is still heavily invested in gold — but I do not have any trading positions in the shiny metal any more. And for this, you owe me some sort of tribute, perhaps a collage of photographs showing me catching the big fish, or diving off a cliff — being a good Dad with the kids — a nice stockbroker with his clients.

It’s Friday and my car is still in the shoppe. I am presently driving a piece of shit that smells like a crayon box and my house has 900 unopened boxes in it and junk is strewn across the floors, festooned across the bannisters — a real mess here. My life is the sum total of my stock market wins minus everything else.

Oh yeah, we can’t stop the buying. Get in there you silly fucking bastards.

Reasonable people hate this rally. But what do you plan to do, fight the war without ammunition and a flam-flam army of ragged fucktards?

Clearly, the bulls have the initiative here. Clearly, the FAGBOX has been broke and with that the consolidation phase.

At a minimum, new highs are likely. However, there are cross-currents and I took measures to address that today. I sold a lot of stuff and bought a lot of stuff, pretty much conducting an entire portfolio makeover. No sense it letting stale stocks sit around doing nothing.

I think gold has lower to go. I think rates will reflate a little. And I think “The Fly” has a series of magnificent wins just around the bend.

News broke last night that China would meet with America to resolve the trade war. One day before, Hong Kong ceded to protester demands and canceled their extradition agreement with China. On this news, stocks have been flying off the handle for the past two day, pushing rates up, and gold lower.

What in the fuck is everyone smoking? I’m not one to piss on parades, but I’m here now on the roof, urinating onto your heads.

This is the biggest farce I’ve ever seen. The only caveat is Trump’s twitter account likely to remain silent about China from now until then. If that is your reason for buying today, so be it. However, just know, it’s all bullshit.

At a minimum, we’re going to pull in from here.

As for gold, I’m mixed on it and need to see some strength into the end of day.

I’m 30% cash in my trading account, with an honest bias to the downside from here. If I see price action doing what I think it’ll do, I’ll throw some hedges on quickly.

Let’s just chalk it up to a flurry, if you will, of bad luck. I took 4 fucking trades towards the end of day yesterday and got poleaxed in two of them, none of them participated in this rally — and my gold positions are getting ship-wrecked.

I had MDB into earnings. BAM -6%
I had this African shit JMIA — BAM, spear to the face -5.5%
And I had ROKU, the stock that never goes down until now. BAM -3.5%
And AYX, which I sold for a paltry +0.75%

Normally I’d declare ‘CATASTROPHE’ but this is all too much for me to handle now.

Any stocks down more than 1% on a +450 day deserves to be sold. Fuck that. This is not what God had intended. I’ve got some rotten apples that I need to discard.

As for the metals, I’ll figure that out next, but my hunch is to buy dips. But in my case, HODL, since I’m already very long.

Ladies and gentlemen, it was nice of you to participate in the latest saga of Trade Wars, winning the war against China because it’s fun and easy to do. This just out via CNBC. Expect a long dick’d rally to the upside first thing tomorrow morning.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday that the leaders of the U.S. and Chinese trade talks held a phone call in the morning and agreed to meet in early October for another round of negotiations.

The two sides agreed to hold another round of trade negotiations in Washington, D.C., towards the beginning of next month, and consultations will be made in mid-September in preparation for the meeting, the Commerce Ministry statement said, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese-language text.

Previously, both sides had indicated they would meet in September.

It’s fucking over. They’re gonna meet; ergo, and this goes without saying — STOCKS ARE GOING TO SOAR.

Lucky for me, I stepped in late in the day with not 1, or 2, or 3, BUT 4 OVERNIGHT TRADES. This is who I am, and you’re nothing.

While it’s true, my personal life is anything but comfortable. I am driving inside of a loaner car from 2004 that smells like a fucking crayon box and it has egg shells in it. I suppose southerners peel off eggs while their driving and toss the refuse onto the rugs. I can only assume this to be true, since I’ve seen it with my own eyes. My house still has 500 unopened boxes and everything is strewn out in a chaotic manic mess that makes me feel like going outside in jogging pants and slippers. But I don’t. I refrain from such degeneracy because of who I am and what I represent, which is an ideal that is MOAR and something better than you. This is most aptly demonstrated by my divine stock picks — descended down from the heavens into your computer screens.

Dow futures are +300 and on this day of the good Lord 9/4/2020, “The Fly” is fully fucking invested without hedges, barreling into a chest filled with unmarked bank notes.

My opinions change with the winds of the market. One second I am foaming by the mouth bearish, working with the Grande Druid lodge on rituals to profit from the coming storm, the next minute I’m bullish and decanting a 1st growth Bordeaux.

Try to keep up in this wacky world of high finance, where the men are men and the women are men and we all make big ball’d decisions to cut each other’s necks and bleed out thy neighbors for sport.

With zeal, I approach this market like anything else, extreme verve and vim — brimming with excitement to outdo everyone else. With that being said, I stepped into the foray today and allocated on the long side, all available cash — easy come, easy go.

All 4 purchases have been designated as overnight picks, which commands that I sell tomorrow, no matter the outcome. This is my life, my prison, toiling for the masses on a grande stage, performing magic tricks of graceful eloquence so that you, the unwashed reader pleb, could profit and perhaps escape a life of extreme moribund par-ness. Might I add, “The Fly” is a master writer and is able to carry on, somewhat effortlessly, weaving thru the King’s English with an estimable temerity, wooing scores into my ranks — both loyal and devoted cult members of the iBC brand.

My last 15 trades, all varying in degrees of success and failure. Set backs and drawdowns are, of course, common elements, and naturally, part of this game. We limit our exposure to the losers by cutting them off post haste.

TWLO +0.26%
MUX +16.1%
BBBY +1.5%
FSLY +7.1%
RGLD +6.3%
AUY +15.9%
(CRWD -6.9%)
MDB +1.4%
MTCH +2.8%
MU +1.8%
(EDU -0.7%)
DRIP +5.8%
EXK +16.5%
(IQ -4.3%)
(DRIP -6.3%)

I’ll be sure to let you know how today’s EOD trades faired tomorrow. Or, you can cease from being a miser and join the League of Gentlemen and Jungle at Exodus. Your call.

You see the market taking off and you’re elated by it. But what you don’t see is gold, pressing higher yet again with its retarded step-sister silver doting behind it. You do not understand why it’s going higher, but it vexes you. You aren’t curious, but instead angry by it. You take to Twitter to post stupid facts, such as gold is still underperforming stocks over the past 5 years and other like minded folks applaud you for it — because they’re angry at gold too. So many people are angry at this shiny metal that is higher by 440% over the past twenty years, all the while the buying power of your King Dollars have fallen by more than 60%.

But gold is stupid and it’s also for morons, but it’s up nonetheless. You and your stupid friends can do nothing about it. You get angry and piss your pants talking about it — but there is nothing you can do. The price of gold is going to recourd highs and you’ll have no options other than to watch in horror as people like me, and men of my ilk, profit from the denigration of your King Dollar and its stupid support system.

GOOD DAY.

(At the time of this post, the author, Sir Fly, was 20% weighted in gold and gold miners in his quant and trading accounts. Good day, once again!)