Elon Musk Dances on the Graves of Shorts

This is a high key nerd scene, something that cannot be avoided in men with IQs north of 130.

He built the giga factory 3 in China in just 10 months, thanks to Chinese slave labor.

Stock is lit.

In other news, Elon’s other other other company, Neuralink, is planning to INSERT AI CHIPS into humans by next year.

First he lured us in with cool gadgets, cars, flame throwers. Then he killed us.

Gents,

Markets are stubbornly keeping near the highs. Analysts are sucking their own dicks, tripping over their own balls, to upgrade semis. The world is in flames and Iranian mullahs are foaming from the mouths, Chinese trade wars, depravity on a scale never seen before — but the Fed has it all in check. We’ve gone a decade without a recession — first time ever I believe. The economic cycle is dead. Go visit your macro-economics professors and throw eggs at him, while screaming “learn to code.”

That being said, the zebra is amongst us in the wild prairie, eating alongside the lions. See the lions have been fed well and are very fat and content. The men lie around all day and larp, while the women fetch us food from the local dispensary, making it unnecessary to hunt and kill. But you cannot stop nature. You can tell the lion he is now a lioness, but it won’t stop him from doing what lions do — if you know what I mean.

A comeuppance is in order. A great grave swing by memory lane is overdue.

PREPARE FOR CATACLYSM!

UPDATE: It’s all just one big misunderstanding.

It appears we did a 180 on this topic based upon Trump’s statement last week. After Iraq voted to expel US forces from the country, Trump told them to pay us back for the billions spent in the country, and how he’d harangue them with unbelievable sanctions. Well, here is a new approach: a letter to Iraq informing them of our planned departure.

READ: Letter confirms the US military is preparing to leave Iraq pic.twitter.com/T2H193HUSi

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) January 6, 2020

In other news, Iran stated that after Soleimani was in the ground, on Tuesday, their campaign of revenge would commence. Back in the real world on Wall Street, no one cares. We don’t give a shit and stocks are sharply higher. They were down 200 at the open, but now they’re higher.

I would argue that the premium for WTI should be deflated, now that we’re leaving Iraq and Iran only wants to quarrel with us in court. This could of course all change rapidly, and stocks could once again tread lower. I am prepared to deal with that too. Nevertheless, it doesn’t look like the big crash is happening just yet and World War 3 has been delayed.

Or has it?

UPDATE:

BREAKING: A leaked letter seen by Reuters reveals US forces will withdraw from Iraq following the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani. @Stone_SkyNews has the latest from Beirut.

More on this #breakingnews here ? https://t.co/70rOU2Me7Q pic.twitter.com/3gbk27KR5n

— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 6, 2020

No big surprise here. There is an undercurrent of weakness in the semis, but aside from that — market have gone straight up since morning. That being said, and if the perception is war chances are dissipating, shouldn’t oil retreat? That’s my bet.

But judging by the widespread Iranian response to the death of their beloved general, I have to believe they will try something. I could be wrong, but this doesn’t feel over. And with Trump’s crazy talk of bombing cultural sites, it is likely to escalate.

Presently there are gains in Utes, REITs, apparel stores, and select biotech and of course SAAS. Software stocks had not led during Q4 of 2019 and really need to stabilize here for the sake of their wonderful shareholders. The SAAS basket I created in Exodus is up 1.7% right now, led by CRWD.

So what to do?

I still think hedging and being in heavy cash makes sense. I cannot give the market a green light with all of the issues lurking in the shadows. Enjoy the rally but understand it can change with just one tweet.

I just so happen to be long GLD and RGLD in my Quant portfolio, an overall 15% weighting which should take the edge off today’s decline to come. Don’t look now, but Gold is busting loose again and it’s worth chasing. This is a 10yr consolidation attempting to create a new range. We first needs to get through higher levels from 2012-2013 and then we’re potentially off to the races.

And it’s a long road to travel.

Gold +1.6% at the moment

By my estimation, 2,000 is the number to shoot for and if we get past that… Let’s get past that first and then let’s talk.

Futures are off -61 on Nasdaq. I am loaded up with 3x inverse ETFs in my trading and will be tempted to close them out today. But if this Iranian situation continues, markets might want lower. The first week of January is important and this is truly a fucked way to begin the year. Nevertheless, we must remain vigilant for algorithmic fueled reversals, based off news flow and Presidential tweets.

In case you haven’t already, sign up for the StockLabs aka Exodus 2.0 beta trials. We are working as fast as we can and hope to have this out soon.

Worth a watch.

Enjoy @rickygervais’ full monologue for this years @goldenglobes ?? #GoldenGlobes #RickyGervais #TimCook #Epstein #princeandrew #Epsteindidntkillhimself #scorsese #goldenglobes2020 #tarantino #PhoebeWallerBridge pic.twitter.com/fNxw04Psqi

— Mwiinga Gregory ?? (@Thearchct) January 6, 2020

In a roundabout way, we’re all complicit in these wars, the killing and maiming of innocents. Over 100,000 American casualties since 9/11, $6 trillion in purse snatched from the coffers and placed directly into the hands of people of ill repute. There is nothing you can do about it, frankly, and I doubt you’d want to do anything about it — unless it’s your son being buried or your portfolio getting smashed to pieces.

Civil unrest doesn’t occur lest there is something truly upsetting to the average Joe, at home slobbering over teevee dinners. In our age, perhaps this could happen if iPhone supplies dwindled or video games went off-line and all of the incels had to furnish their faces in the sun to face the real world and think about raising a family? The childrenfication of men has successfully turned an entire generation into self-entitled memers who do nothing but larp all day online and deprive themselves of discipline, indulgent in the things that are harmful to them.

In 2020, “The Fly” has decided that a temperance movement is most appropriate. Today I was very stressed, very upset, and I was cooking with wine. I was tempted to take a glass and down it — but withheld such wild eyed desires in exchange for abstinence. I shall not partake in the consumption of alcohol, not even a lick.

Same with caloric intake. After a year of neglect, I found myself to be skinny-fat, out of shape, unable to bench press an appropriate amount to kill a man. Thusly, I have enlisted myself into a cutting regimen whereby I starve myself daily in exchange for health. By my exact calculations, this diet will continue until I am 10% body fat, or 4 months.

Also, in my new house, I failed to place a teevee in the living room on purpose. Gone are the days of idle amusement and consumption of nonsense. In its stead is my vast library of books, which I read 2-3 hours per day. This austere movement is of course designed to improve myself, both physically and spiritually. I was unhappy in my former existence, so I am trying something entirely new.

On the issue of markets, Nasdaq futures are down 30, which is nothing to worry about. WTI is up a bit too, which is expected. There has been a lot of rhetoric out of Washington and Tehran this weekend, and I happen to believe we have reason for concern. Alas, the facts are bald faced and without censorship: wars drive America and American power drives returns. Sad, but true. Nothing to fear, unless it gets out of hand.

I will resist with every fiber of my existence reporting on political or geopolitical events. It’s toxic and not helpful when trying to see the market clearly. However, early this morning there were multiple rockets fired at US forces in Iraq. This of course begs the question: “what in the fuck happens next, should Iran decide to go all in again America in the region?”

Iran has the population of Germany and we can’t just roll our tanks into their mountainous regions. It would be, more or less, a gigantic quagmire and clusterfuck. In the off-chance that this idiotic political structure in America decided to fight a total war there and institute a draft, which is unlikely, I will be kidnapping my sons and moving out of the country.

If this continues to escalate, markets will get rocked, initially. Oil will spike to more than $80 and oil stocks in the U.S. will soar. Once the war situation stabilizes to the point of indifference, stocks will rally again. The only way this truly up-ends markets is if we get overrun in Iraq and face humiliation. That would of course mean a massive escalation and the expense of such a war is something the country cannot afford, but will pay it nonetheless because they don’t really care.

My simple advice during this period is to be cash rich, hedged, and long some gold. The market was looking for a reason to trade lower after a historic rise. This is probably good enough to start a nice old fashioned rout.

Stocks fell just 200 and breadth was in the range of 35%. This is not the type of action one would expect from the onset of a world war. I would not be surprised to see stocks climb on Monday, as the algos and the dumb money clamor for MOAR. However, if there is a God, a just one at that, he will smite all of you for your greed and for your depravity.

Bible aside, it appears rates are cascading lower again — which is a good thing. During these brief sojourns into “risk off”, fake algos thrust quickly into dollars, and bonds, juke average joes, and then pull the rug leaving them plastered on the floor with excrement falling from their faces. I cannot stress this enough, human beings do not run this market.

That being said, enjoy your weekend and pray to the Digital Gods that some heinous form of false flag operation doesn’t befall you at some public venue, which would undoubtedly energize the base into taking out some more bad guys and sending America’s bravest overseas for a hunting expedition.

May the blood and the coin flow heavily in 2020!

Cheers

You can probably flip a coin and attain greater accuracy in predicting the markets over the next week. But let’s not forget THE JANUARY EFFECT and the psychological toil it takes on money managers. To start out the New Year in disgrace is to feel like you’re climbing uphill with a rucksack of bricks attached to your person. It is never a good feeling to be behind and following the wondrous melt ups and spoiled rotten nature of markets, one can argue that the path of most pain is the path we’re forging ahead.

History is soiled with the blood of the meek who practiced a brand of hubris even the most powerful amongst us wouldn’t dare display. As I look around me, I see nothing but sub 100 IQ cro-magnons driving new whips and displaying new watches, all gotten from the great stock market melt up of the past two years.

Let it be known, when the fires come they will burn hot and long, melting those watches down to their base metals — smashing apart those new whips and casting the owners into the sewers — where they belong.

In the olden days, the rich got that way through inheritance, pluck, or ingenuity. Nowadays most get there by simply waiting around for things to happen. I am rooting for an upheaval to discredit these rascals — sending them back to their housing tenements living off Mac n Cheese balls deep fried.

Speaking of losses, I took yet another L today. YTD, my record is perfect.

TVIX -11.9%
AXGN -3.8%
PPC -4.4%
SQ -5.5%