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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

What a Weird Market

Everything is trading strange. Oil is threw the roof, yet oil stocks are blah. Banks are crashing through the floor boards, yet [[SKF]] is hardly up.

What’s up with that? Did the government put some sort of asshat top on SKF?

My Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] is trading erratic. Fucking insane.

Quite honestly, if I was just taking a view at today’s tape, with knowing the underlying bullshit, I’d say we are about to fuck the retail investor in epic fashion.

When nothing makes sense, go eat a sandwich. That’s what Grandpa Fly used to say, just prior to lathering himself with oil oil—readying up for a good old school Italian tan.

Just today, I had my face ripped off on some new purchases, which do not need to be repeated, mind you. And, all of my new bank longs, Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Synovus Financial Corp. [[SNV]] , Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. [[IBKR]] , [[UYG]] , pelted me with large stones.

Hey, at least my nibbling of [[SRS]] is paying dividends. And, just in case, I bought some [[FXP]] —mainly because I hate chinese stocks.

All in all, the current theme should be to get long commodities in egregious fashion. However, at the moment, everything is in flux. You might be better off playing video games or going to strip clubs, than fucking around in this rigged game.

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Fly Buys: FXP, WLT

I bought 5,000 [[FXP]] @ $86. And, I bought 2,000 Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] @ $64.30.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, you too will “enjoy” horrendous intra-day moves. And, you may lose money.

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The Father of All Oil Short Squeezes is Upon US

I just bought a basket of energy stocks, which includes National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] and Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] . I want to be a part of the cool run up to $200 crude.

Just when you thought the commodity bubble was deflated, BAM, the government fills it back up for us, via cheap whorish money.

As Thursday and Friday meant death to all short sellers of banks, today is the God of oil short squeezes, with that fucker being up more than $20 per barrel now.

Just to recap:

The economy appears to be fucked again. Shocker. Prepare to pay $200 for your Thanksgiving Day turkey.

As for my bank longs:

Today’s drop is acceptable. One cannot expect to make money everyday. However, I can. My losses are somewhat limited, being that Citigroup Inc. [[C]] is my largest bank holdings. The Synovus Financial Corp. [[SNV]] drop is quite a nuisance, but not detrimental—at least not to me.

The $100 question I have for you is this:

If [[KOL]] is sprinting higher like this, why is WLT flat? Can it be a market error? No, never that. The market is never wrong. Let me go investigate; I’ll get back to you later.

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Fly Buy: BTU, WLT

I bought 3,000 Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] @ $60.05.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] @ $69.

Disclaimer: If you buy BTU or BTU because of this post, the next time you go fishing, you will catch a great white shark. And, you may lose money,

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It’s Time to Eat Coal

Over the past 3 months, shareholders of coal stocks were thrown out of airplanes, sans parachutes, into fields of cacti. But with the new government bailout on the table,commodity stocks are being dug out from their graves and tossed into Wall Street ballrooms, yet again.

Plus anyway, we’re going into winter and shit and you pikers need coal to heat your bullshit homes.

You can buy the filthy rock directly, via buying [[KOL]] . Or, you can man up and get long coal stocks, such as Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] , Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] , James River Coal Company [[JRCC]] , CONSOL Energy Inc. [[CNX]] , Massey Energy Company [[MEE]] or maybe a little Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] .

Aside from coal, oil is raping non-middle eastern assholes hard. For this new leg up in oil, I like Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , ConocoPhillips [[COP]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] . Or, you can get lazy and buy [[IEO]] and [[DIG]] .

In short, if you’re tired of getting your chest hairs punched off in the banks, go fuck around with some commodities. They’re safe, compared to the daily fluctuations of our financial system.

NOTE: If oil keeps shooting higher, expect Dry bulk shipping rates to rise. Hence, DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]] , Genco Shipping & Trading Limited [[GNK]] and TBS International Limited [[TBSI]] may go up. And, solar and rail stocks may catch a bid too. The only solar stock worth mentioning is First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]]

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Beware of Market Trickery

The downside to Friday’s nutcase bank rally is the next day give back; which we happen to be enjoying today. Many banks printed highs then reversed course and commenced fucking shareholders, sort of like what Synovus Financial Corp. [[SNV]] is doing to me.

Suspicious of government men in clown suits, I refuse to bet against the banks here, even though it’s the “cool thing to do.”

Instead, I’d rather bet against commercial real estate assholes, via [[SRS]] and get long gold, via [[DGP]] or Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] .

Finally, I find it interesting that Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] will no longer be considered “investment banks.” I guess they have the green light to start opening retail branches now, thanks to the Treasury. After all, those fuckers need to raise capital. What better way to raise capital than to offer American idiots free toasters with every 10k deposited? This capitalism shit really crash and burned, eh?

Top pick: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]]

Position Update (SNV): via Briefing

According to Reuters, a JP Morgan analysts said investors should sell U.S. mid-sized regional banks’ shares and take profits as these stocks may only have an indirect benefit from the U.S. government’s rescue plan for troubled banks. JP Morgan said once the temporary ban on short selling financials is lifted, a better buying opportunity will likely be created. Banks with residential construction portfolios in Nevada, Arizona and Florida will see near-term benefits of the Treasury’s plan as there is pent up demand for real estate given an inability of potential borrowers to secure credit, states JP Morgan. Firm believes the Treasury’s plan, which will reintroduce liquidity into the banking system and mortgage market, could set the platform for an eventual recovery of the housing market. Prime beneficiaries are SNV and CNB.

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We’re About to Reflate Like a MotherFucker

With a fresh 1 trillion dollars coming out of the printing press, expect to see the inflation story to be introduced, in a very egregious way.

Temporarily, I am staying long banks, until [[SKF]] hits the mid to high 80’s and Citigroup Inc. [[C]] goose steps to $25. After that, I will direct my energy towards precious metals and oil, as the inflation panic reemerges its stupid head.

Some undervalued commodity stocks include: Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , ConocoPhillips [[COP]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] and Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] . Naturally, there are many others; but that’s my fucking list.

Now, I am not sure if the commodities will respond right away, or if there will be a headfake first. Either way, the appropriate course of action should be to get long the sector, with both balls in hand, then spit warm beer at Larry Kudlow for suggesting otherwise.

Remember, this is not some bullshit stimulus package we’re talking about. This is 1 trillion dollars, fuckface. Trade accordingly.

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Premier Paulson Wants to Bailout Foreign Banks Too

A Bailout for everyone, with exception to the debt ridden American loser. God bless communism.

“If a financial institution has business operations in the United States, hires people in the United States, if they are clogged with illiquid assets, they have the same impact on the American people as any other institution,” Paulson said.

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