I just bought a basket of energy stocks, which includes National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] and Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] . I want to be a part of the cool run up to $200 crude.
Just when you thought the commodity bubble was deflated, BAM, the government fills it back up for us, via cheap whorish money.
As Thursday and Friday meant death to all short sellers of banks, today is the God of oil short squeezes, with that fucker being up more than $20 per barrel now.
Just to recap:
The economy appears to be fucked again. Shocker. Prepare to pay $200 for your Thanksgiving Day turkey.
As for my bank longs:
Today’s drop is acceptable. One cannot expect to make money everyday. However, I can. My losses are somewhat limited, being that Citigroup Inc. [[C]] is my largest bank holdings. The Synovus Financial Corp. [[SNV]] drop is quite a nuisance, but not detrimental—at least not to me.
The $100 question I have for you is this:
If [[KOL]] is sprinting higher like this, why is WLT flat? Can it be a market error? No, never that. The market is never wrong. Let me go investigate; I’ll get back to you later.
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Gee fly you’re a genius…an 8 day late one. LOL!
All the coal names pulling back. ACI coming off its highs, same with BTU.
If I am interpreting this right, Crude is really $110. It was the old contract that spiked up on close?
Fly… I’m making the same moves. buying oil here. top pick: IEO.
BTU and RIG are also good plays.
WLT is supposed to be best of breed. The stocks moves weird, has huge moves up so hold on to it. But it has been selling off later in the year than other coals like MEE.
BEHOLD! The “COX” man will BAN LONGS on commodities since it is unpatriotic.
You want to be a good citizen? Short the oil market and go long the banks…
The Central Planning Committee is at work again:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ5vL3rd6g5g&refer=home
If I recall my Constitutional Law Article I says Congress can’t pass ex post fact laws. In other words they can’t pass legislation and retroactively apply it to two entities that entered into a contractual relationship such as a bank and a mortgagor. The assholes call it a mortgage modification but it takes both parties to tango.
WTF is happening to this country. I am glad to be an old guy because the younger generation(s) are going to be screwed.
That be “facto” laws.
Fly:
What are your thoughts on FTK now? I know you have loved it in the past…..
Watch C. Trying to come back.
I hear they may outlaw short squeezes of Earl.
the market is always wrong, but never off by very much.
Sell short CCL , RCL … higher oil + broke consumer = zero egregious cruises
WAIT…If oil was up as much as $25 today, why is USO only up 6.3% ?
SKF should be at least 110 .
CAP – the derivative market is in shambles
CAP, it’s only the contract that expires today that’s up so much
CAP: you’re looking at the wrong futures. Oct expiry was today I believe.
SRS should be 90-95 … things are completely FUCKED
FTK!!!
been 40% move in two weeks…is there chance for bigger short squeeze to the upside? would expect it to be stronger today with oil which makes me want to sell out some profits
Fly, your thoughts on AGM re a short squeeze after making a new low here?
Now the United States has it’s own Sovereign Bank. It’s called the US Treasury. We are no different than the goat herders and the Chinese.
Pretty soon the government is going to say, we will not tell you the stocks price intraday, we will ban all day trading and trading must be done after the market closes at the same price. Then it will be, you can only trade one day a month, this will prevent massive market panicks… somehow… oh wait, everytime we try to intervene we screw things up.
Todd Harrison
02:55:09 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Unintended Consequences
Someone just asked me if the Oil spikes were due to anxiety over the bailout plan. I offered the following thoughts:
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Commodities are spiking on the prospect that we’ve jumped the shark from deflation to hyperinflation.
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Since 2002, asset classes have risen as the dollar lost 40%.
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That process reversed when the debt bubble popped, which is why the dollar rallied and commodities lost 25% of their value since July into last week.
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The action in crude isn’t anxiety that the bailout won’t work—it’s an unintended consequence if it does.
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Foreign appetite for the dollar as the world reserve currency remains the single biggest determinant of the success of this initiative.
These Eyes Have Seen Alotta Love But They’ve Never Seen Nuttin’ Like This!
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The action in the financials (Wachovia (WB), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan (JPM)) speaks to the notion that what ails the sector isn’t a function of short-sellers as much as the systemic risk.
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SPY $120.60—if technical analysis still works (given the structural shift in the market), this level ‘should’ hold once it fills the gap from Friday’s opening.
Do Buybacks “Matter?”
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Microsoft (MSFT), Nike (NKE) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) all announced buy-backs today.
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This is precisely what we prescribed as a “best case alternative” for Microsoft when it was debating what to do with the war chest.
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They are a positive step but it is in no way a panacea for our structural ailments.
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Indeed, I expect to see MUCH more issuance and insider sales (particularly in the financials, as per Minyan Peter on Friday).
And Finally, in the “Weirdness Department”…
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We’ve spoken about Pakistan and drew the analog since they banned short sales in June.
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As a follow-up, I began to track that versus the S&P.
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The Karachi initially rallied 12% (versus the 11% rally of the Thursday low in the S&P).
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From there, Pakistan fell 28%. IF the S&P follows suit, it would take us to… are you ready? S&P 9-11.
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Strange indeed (and here’s hoping that history doesn’t repeat or rhyme).
Jeffrey Cooper
02:35:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gold.. 18 Months
Last week I mentioned that I believe gold should double from the last week’s lows.
No, not this year.
But perhaps within as little as 18 months.
In some ways it reminds me of the pullback in oil from the 70 dollar level to the prior high into the 40 dollar handle before the launch to a double of the 70 dollar highs.
Gold ETF (GLD) has recaptured 50% of the years range and is poised to close near the highs of the largest up day in history–last Thursday.
I am watiing for Shikeh Al Whatever to blame the fall in his country’s stock market on the Jews and the infidels.
I am waiting for Shikeh Al Whatever to blame the fall in his country’s stock market on the Jews and the infidels.
Al-Thaini will be beheaded if he doesn’t return to Middle East owning at least 1 major bank.
I got caught holding too much SRS as Paulson declared jihad against all godless shorts. Averaged down and am happy to be limping out only slightly bruised.
Who knows what happens when Blinky realizes the world isn’t going to give him the keys to their economies?
FTK is going up because I sold the last of mine last week. This phenomenon has yielded consistent winners for whomever has been on the opposite side of my trades this year.
Proshares needs to launch an “Inverse Anton” ETF.
You can chalk that loss up to another Jonny-Come-Lately Trade
Squeeze is over. Back to the shithole.
New Rules:
You will all be asigned a day of trading every month based on your last name. This way we can more quickly identify when Al Queda is trying to short. You are only allowed to trade if it’s “your day”.
You may never sell a stock until 30 years after owning it, this will prevent stocks from going down. If someone decides to buy a stock for less than it was 1 year ago, they will be shot. You are not allowed to buy a stock for a cheaper price.
Based on your income, we will determine the maximum amount you can invest. We are also forcing you to invest a minimum amount, based on your income, regardless of whether you want to or not.
After the 30 year ownership, you must have an ID card, and be microchipped, cavity searched, scanned and terrorized, to prove you are not a terrorist before selling a stock.
Then we will later put in place rules that say what you can eat, to ensure the nation doesn’t get too fat, that will say wwhen you can sleep, to ensure the nation gets plenty of sleep, then you will also be forced to watch TV to make sure this nation gets plenty of brainwashing and hypnosis, and we can tell you what to want feel and think and do through propaganda. We will not allow you to live past 40 years old, unless you have been a member of the government. Since we cannot afford bullets, we force you to jump into hot lava, or if you would prefer, we can drop you in the ocean.
Rather than get you to consume less, and produce more, we are going to force you to consume more than you can afford, while we understand this doesn’t make sense economically, and will only create a larger bubble that is doomed to fail, we can always force people to work the last 5 years of their life while consuming only each other, as cannibals, in order to try to compensate for the over consuming, and slow the bubble down. Hopefully, we will all have died before we pass on an impossible situation to our children and grandchildren, because their will be a shortage of everything, because there’s not enough producction to keep up with the consumption.
please stay tuned for further instruction, where we hope to remove your souls and purpose of living, hoping that there is a huge conflict leading to population reduction, just so we can be prosperous at the expense of a couple billions lives.
Damn…who knew? LOL!
Market is going down much farther after the short squeeze margin calls are over at 2pm est. Going down big tomorrow too. S&P should drop to around 1172. Stupid bulls.
Bot. DGP and Bot. SLV
The market is busting up equities too even oil and FCX grrrr. Does anyone want to get long V any time soon?
Get ready asshats. I am back. And I am pissed.
WOW…anybody watching the Dollar? We are near all-time low against the EURO: $1.485
Went from $1.42 to $1.485 today alone…If we break resistance of $1.51 on the Euro, I’m loading up on Gold.
Cox thinks anything involving stocks is unpatriotic. I love my new trillion dollars of debt giving me a flat market.
More vodka, comrades?
Damn…who knew? DEVILDOG!