With a fresh 1 trillion dollars coming out of the printing press, expect to see the inflation story to be introduced, in a very egregious way.
Temporarily, I am staying long banks, until [[SKF]] hits the mid to high 80’s and Citigroup Inc. [[C]] goose steps to $25. After that, I will direct my energy towards precious metals and oil, as the inflation panic reemerges its stupid head.
Some undervalued commodity stocks include: Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , ConocoPhillips [[COP]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] and Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] . Naturally, there are many others; but that’s my fucking list.
Now, I am not sure if the commodities will respond right away, or if there will be a headfake first. Either way, the appropriate course of action should be to get long the sector, with both balls in hand, then spit warm beer at Larry Kudlow for suggesting otherwise.
Remember, this is not some bullshit stimulus package we’re talking about. This is 1 trillion dollars, fuckface. Trade accordingly.
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agreed.. again
Thank you, sir. May I have another?…
Fly whats a good bullshit etf for us pikers? I guess it would be the opposite of SMN?
Trying to fit one trillion on my calculator but it won’t fit….that’s a lot of zeros………..oh well…it’s a nice clean round number….we’ll go with it!
I used to think that the first leg down from here would be a doozy, since there’s now no floor to put in place from short coverers. However, since the gay PPT seems hellbent on banning the selling of anything, it be be wise to get long anything for a while.
Commodities will get some lovin after the hedgies can’t short the shit-ass financials anymore. I wonder where else the money will be going? Perhaps shorting airlines and random bullshit?
It won’t be random.
It will be bullshit.
Thanks for the guidance, Senor Fly. No FXI? Asia starting green while US futures slightly red at this time.
Egregious
Hey Fly, hop in your gay-ass, diamond-studded Time Masheen and find out who stole the Karma buttons.
I wish it was ten trillion instead.
UYM would be the ETF vehicle of choice, no?
Now you go long MS and GS.
The Fed made both of the bank holding companies tonight.
There are no more stand alone Investment Banks.
Welcome to Amerika comrads. If you fuck up we will bail you out and change your status to what ever you want.
Fucking BULLSHIT thats all I have to say.
So ends the era of the investment bank.
Ignore the futures.
FCX is your super stacked stock, off of commodities. Don’t forget BHP.
Thanks, Hank!
Dear Taxpayer,
Thank you for your generous contribution and
for the contribution from your children and
the contribution from your children’s children.
Most egregiously yours,
Emperor Paulson
http://www.tpicks.com/pictures%20people%20have%20sent%20me.html
some pics of Galveston Island and
local areas.
The origins of the suicide bomber.
1,034 – 1,124 AD —
The entire Arab world was enslaved by one man: Hasan
ibn-al-Sabbah, the Old Man of the Mountain. He
established the Hashshashin who operated a part of
Mohammedanism which controlled by terror and fear much
of India, Asia Minor and most of the Mediterranean
Basin. They became a priesthood that used an extremely
effective mind-control mechanism and extortion tool that
enabled the “Assassins” to control the civilized world
for several hundred years.
Their method was simple. Young men were kidnapped and
knocked unconscious with hashish. They were taken to a
garden filled with beautiful black-eyed houris in a
harem decorated with rivers of milk and honey. The
young men were told that they were in paradise. They
were promised they could return and live there forever
if they sacrificed themselves as an assassin of whomever
they were commanded to kill. The men were knocked out
again, and shoved out into the world to carry out the
assassination mission.
Meanwhile, the Old Man of the Mountain sent a messenger
to the caliph or, whatever wealthy ruler from whom they
demanded payment, demanding camel-loads of gold, spices,
incense or other valuables. If payment did not arrive
on time, the assassin would be sent to kill the
offending party. There was virtually no defense against
the unknown assailant who wanted nothing more than to
carry out his mission, be killed and return to “heaven”.
This problem is much larger that 1 trillion Fly. What does BIS report? Notional value becomes full value during Bankruptcy. Trade accordingly. Before this crisis is over Fly’s head is going to spin off, mark my words. If he thought Thursday was volatile, just wait awhile.
Sierra
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIUPCfIihQ4
Ah, the good ole dayz! Brings a tear to mine eye 🙁
Some bullish excerpts from a Citigroup Japan analyst report tonight:
We are bullish long-term because 1) the real US economy is in better shape than it seems, 2) the new US president is likely to implement a major stimulus package from 2009, 3) there is much room for interest rate cuts across the
globe as resource and energy prices have fallen substantially, and 4) global equity valuations are strikingly low.
? US economy in relatively good shape — Our economic & market analysis team forecasts US GDP growth of 1.9% in 2008, the highest rate among industrialized nations. Although the US financial system has been shaken, this has not led to substantial deterioration in the real economy as the Fed’s and government’s countermeasures have proved highly reliable.
Poised for a major rebound in global equity markets — Global valuations are strikingly low, with the world’s equity markets undervalued by about 20%more than actual conditions warrant, in our view. We think inflation rates are likely to decline substantially across the globe in CY09 H1 owing to the fall in resource and energy prices. As such, we think global monetary easing measures could
well be implemented.
? Japan equities also set to rebound sharply — Japanese stocks have hit lows on a cycle of once every five years on average. We therefore think the share price correction could be nearing its final phase. We think Japanese equities are likely to appreciate substantially during the market rally as they have done in similar situations thus far. However, the deterioration in domestic demand is
acute.
No more stand alone investment banks…
thank god, so next time when they fuck up again, EVERYONE goes down, since they will all be doing the same shit together, instead of just a few dumbasses over-gearing themselves
i’m thinking about buying a shit ton of ABK when the markets open. can anyone tell me why this is a bad idea????
much obliged,
Bought Aussie Dollar, right here at 83 cents. This fucker is heading back over 90 cents.
You mean you want to buy the puts?
Sierra when are you buying CA real estate. It’s getting pretty fucking cheap in my parts. Starting to look at some nice cash flows.
Any idea where GS will be tomorrow with the Fed allowing it to become a full-fledged bank?
Nothing is true. Everything is permissible.
– Hank i Paulson.
Will Monday look like last Friday? If so, what about buying the dip on SRS/EEV for a quick trade?
did you guys see the goldman/morgan news? i knew their models would have to change, but i didn’t think they’d turn into banks overnight.
might be fun to have a goldman sachs atm card.
In the “not a big Shocker” dept–
Morgan Stanley – Wachovia merger is off the table.
(I’m assuming neither’s shareholders wanted the other’s bullshit stock.)
__
If Morgan becomes a regulated bank, won’t they need to raise a bunch of crapital?
Er, “capital?”
__
Guess this state is off the table, eh E8?
Palin Draws Crowd of 60,000 in Florida.
__
I just realized how pussy this nation is.
our forefathers would come out with guns blazing and axes in their hand and wouldn’t stop until all the heads of the people involved rolled on the floor
ponder that the next time you buy a sniper rifle
every member of fed and government who has not taken a stand is guilty and should be held accountable
what have we allowed happen to this once great nation?
I don’t know about the rest of you guys, but I just can’t wait to deposit my money with either gang of thieves. This is just what the FDIC needs–billions more that they can’t possibly cover. Way to go, Hank!
Jake, the first comment to that article is informative.
I live in Central Florida and was at the event. The official count was 20,000 NOT 60,000 – just more exaggeration by the media. As a side note, while waiting in my car to get in, vendors were selling borderline racist Obama shirts which once again shows that Republicans always take the low road. The right wing always put themselves out there as the ones with the highest family and Christian values yet they spew nothing but contempt for others. It really made my skin crawl.
Palin is an empty sideshow.
A calculated distraction to take the focus off McCain, which they clearly need because he cannot articulate a clear thought without reading off of his Rove cue cards.
Sadly, the repubs have nothing left to offer except for blatant lies that, even more sadly, the neocon base will probably fall for.
The race card being played by the repubs is pathetic.
Unfortunately, sniper rifles will no longer be sold when Soros finishes his aquisition of the former USA.
I hate France, but stand in serious admiration of the French Revolution, at this time.
I need to calm down, as I am Michael Douglass “Falling Down” fucking pissed.
I leave for Hank, Dick, Angelo, C, MER, GS, et al, a paraphrase from Anthrax… “if I ever had the chance, I’d kick out your chairs and watch you dance”.
The kind of dance that leaves your feet dangling over the floor when it’s over.
The right wing always put themselves out there as the ones with the highest family and Christian values yet they spew nothing but contempt for others. It really made my skin crawl.
Oh fuck off.
next you’ll be telling us Bill Ayers is a deeply misunderstood man.
Palin’s husband accused of incest?
http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=75852
Very interesting Juice – or is it ‘lovemysam’?
were you there with your abacus? From where did you get your “official count”?
From the article where you posted the above comment:
“Sa-Rah! Sa-Rah!” they chanted at every mention of her name, applauding loudly and waiving tiny American flags that were distributed — along with free water bottles — by local volunteers. The fire chief estimated the crowd at 60,000.”
From the Miami Herald: “But Palin drew thousands more than the estimated 20,000 people that turned out for Bush. A fire rescue official estimated the crowd at 25,000 to 30,000, while the Republican Party of Florida pegged the audience at twice that size.”
Bruce, all due respect, but anything mildly anti-Obama is painted as “racist” by you Messiah fans. It’s a convenient crutch for a campaign chock full of bad ideas.
Moreover, I hope you are kidding me with your “low road” comments, not two days after you posted a pornographic cartoon of McCain and Palin on this site? How stupid do you take the denizens of this site to be, Obama supporters excluded? Take a look at Kos, Huffington Post, Dem Underground or even The Atlantic Monthly blogs if you want to see lowest common denominator trash.
of course only the GOP lies about the audience count, the Dems never stoop that low.
Whenever The One is giving audience there are millions to see the parting of the waters.
By the way you guy reckon Bill Ayers and Pastor will score regular invites to the Lincoln bedroom? they’d better carefully frisk Ayers as you never know what he could leave behind ticking away.. lol.
Did I really just read Nasdaq futures vs fair value down over 500 pts. in pre-market?
Polishing up the bullets to gleaming perfection.
Killswitch, engage.
LM added to the No-short list.
Fly,
More ban on shorts. No shorting GE, GM, LM
http://www.gijoe.50megs.com/klink5.jpg
am i the only one who remembers hogans heros and think paulson looks like commander klink
The pre-market casino is open for business. MS goes from -3% to +10% in 15 minutes or so. GS ain’t as lucky (yet).
Just pointing out that estimates of that crowd were likely overestimated by a factor of 2 – 3.
I watched 60 minutes last night & I wasn’t impressed with either of them.
Regarding McCain answer to “Is Palin ready to be President?” – “ABSOLUTELY .. ABSOLUTELY !!”
sure, whatever .. and I’m ready to be a Raiders Quarterback because I was QB for my junior high team.
No offense Bruce-but go fuck yourself.
60,000?
Hell, I filled the Coliseum when I ran for the Roman senate!
Bread and circuses for all!!
Along with FCX, what about RIO (VALE ADR)?
Juice, which party abolished slavery?
oh yeah, the racist one.
Hey Juice,
By your analogy, does that make me Dubya?
Not God bless america, God damn america.
my daughter agrees except that now that I’m running, for once she’s “actually proud of america”
Oh yeah Juice, in case I wasn’t clear earlier, go fuck yourself again.
Pooh Bear, what was it I said that caused your embolism?
Once again, the neocons display their idea of tolerance.
USA!! USA!! USA!!
We are Germany before the great depression and collapse of the German “empire”. Blaming the attack of the “radio towers” on terrorism, as an excuse to aggressively move towards global domination as we spread our “democracy” fueled with hatred towards other religions, hyper inflating ourselves, saying we don’t need a currency backed by gold, and trying to spend our way out of a crisis, bringing the fall of an empire.
When are these cornfuckers going to stop moving the fucking goal posts?
I mean fuck man if they just moved it once it would be tolerable but every fucking day?
We ashould get together and tear those fucking things down, assholes.
xlf down 4% skf only 2.5% how is this possible?
nik: different weights and holdings.
FITB still not on the list…
The FLY: You still like SNV ?
Just bought some but would like confirmation before I buy another 10k
SKF is eFFFFed up !!!
It should be at 115 !
Whats up with SKF – were structural changes made to its operations so it does not trade relative to the IYF or is this just fear holding it back?? Anyone have ideas??
Nic:
SKF is a Financial SHORT: XLF is a Financial LONG ETF. They should move OPPOSITE.
A problem with SKF right now is they can’t DIRECTLY short more of the juiciest short candidates due to the shorting restrictions.
Buy IBM!
Nik – sorry – I have had XLF puts for so long that I started looking at XLF itself as a short…
09/22/08 08:58 am ET … S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF GOLDMAN SACHS (GS 129.8***): GS announces it will become a bank holding company and be subject to regulatory oversight by the Federal Reserve. We expect GS to deleverage its balance sheet to bring it into line with commercial banking peers, and we also look for GS to expand its deposit base organically and through acquisition. These moves will probably hamper long-term profitability, in our view. We believe the company has taken these steps in response to market pressure placed on its business model. We think this also will open up the door to additional acquisition and merger possibilities down the road. /M.Albrecht
SKF is not effed up. Its the close from Friday that was effed. Should have closed at no more than $90 but the close was $100. So today its making up for the messed up Friday close. XLF was up 12 % on Friday so SKF should have closed down 24%. Instead it only closed down 14%. Thats the problem.
CAP is correct. Use this link to the SKF IV:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^SKF-IV
CAP is correct. Type this symbol into yahoo quotes:
^SKF-IV
thx on the SKF
GS back to +. Buy, Buy, Buy (dayraders only, everybody else back to work).
That’s just curiosity Jake … doesn’t mean those people translate into votes …. how big are the crowds when McCain appears without her, that’s the telltale sign.
SDS/SSO eFF’d up as well … no 2ble on this one either
these ultra’s are egregious products … someone isn’t honoring their committments
how about skf trading down 3% when XLF is trading down 4.5%… bunch of bullshit
i’m not screwing around with the inverse etf’s for awhile
in a related note, how many policy makers are screaming, “WHY IS THE MARKET DOWN? I THOUGHT WE BANNED SHORTING”
d’oh
Hansen Natural (NASDAQ:HANS): Expect a deal of some sort between HANS and KO to happen by tomorrow – UBS
UBS telling clients they expect a deal of some sort between HANS and KO to happen by tomorrow…..thinks most likely scenario is a distribution deal with an equity stake of 30-40% in which case stock trades to mid to high 30’s….thinks outright acquisition is still a possibility (worth $50)
IBM soon to break above 120 and close above 122 today. Almost a done deal.
UBS telling clients they expect a deal of some sort between HANS and KO to happen by tomorrow…..thinks most likely scenario is a distribution deal with an equity stake of 30-40% in which case stock trades to mid to high 30’s….thinks outright acquisition is still a possibility (worth $50)
monster time Fly…drink it up here at 29.65…enjoy
Zombie – thanks for the information on ^SKF-IV… really useful!!
Juice, you voting for McCain/Palin ? If not, what the fuck were you there for?
Anytime, Tim. ETFs long and short have been freaky lately.
There goes the neighborhood. Watch out for people saying copper and gasoline 3 bucks by election.
Construction cost are now up more than estimated.
JEC, FLR, etc….. retards. Right Fly?
E8 .. u kidding, right? I was 2000 miles away. Why would I be interested in a pep rally?