The downside to Friday’s nutcase bank rally is the next day give back; which we happen to be enjoying today. Many banks printed highs then reversed course and commenced fucking shareholders, sort of like what Synovus Financial Corp. [[SNV]] is doing to me.
Suspicious of government men in clown suits, I refuse to bet against the banks here, even though it’s the “cool thing to do.”
Instead, I’d rather bet against commercial real estate assholes, via [[SRS]] and get long gold, via [[DGP]] or Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] .
Finally, I find it interesting that Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] will no longer be considered “investment banks.” I guess they have the green light to start opening retail branches now, thanks to the Treasury. After all, those fuckers need to raise capital. What better way to raise capital than to offer American idiots free toasters with every 10k deposited? This capitalism shit really crash and burned, eh?
Top pick: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]]
Position Update (SNV): via Briefing
| According to Reuters, a JP Morgan analysts said investors should sell U.S. mid-sized regional banks’ shares and take profits as these stocks may only have an indirect benefit from the U.S. government’s rescue plan for troubled banks. JP Morgan said once the temporary ban on short selling financials is lifted, a better buying opportunity will likely be created. Banks with residential construction portfolios in Nevada, Arizona and Florida will see near-term benefits of the Treasury’s plan as there is pent up demand for real estate given an inability of potential borrowers to secure credit, states JP Morgan. Firm believes the Treasury’s plan, which will reintroduce liquidity into the banking system and mortgage market, could set the platform for an eventual recovery of the housing market. Prime beneficiaries are SNV and CNB. |
UBS telling clients they expect a deal of some sort between HANS and KO to happen by tomorrow…..thinks most likely scenario is a distribution deal with an equity stake of 30-40% in which case stock trades to mid to high 30’s….thinks outright acquisition is still a possibility (worth $50)
Fly the monster…all about the monster
Todd Harrison
11:07:11 AM
Retail Therapy!
We’ve spoken about Retail Therapy–or, the need for retailers to seek therapy–at the end of August. The thought was that regardless of whether the credit crisis resolved itself through a cancer or a car crash, there would be negative implications for this consumer based sector.
On Friday, we mused that with the financials legally “off limits,” Boo’s crew would shift their short side attention to retail. We noted the lethargy in Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) and mused that we could learn a lot just by watching. I actually initiated as small put position in Sears Holdings (SHLD) but unwound it into the weekend as a function of discipline. Yes, it’s frustrating but opportunities lost are the other side of the discipline trade.
I wanted to bring that thesis to your attention as we find our way through this fray. There’s a LOT competing for mindshare but we’ll chew through it all to the best of our abilities. Along those lines, I offer a few more thoughts in no particular order.
* The notion of “financial terrorism” is starting to make the rounds as there were massive short sales coming out of Dubai starting on September 11th. Again, we don’t “do” rumors in the ‘Ville but we most certainly provoke thought and that is our intention on sharing this speculation.
* I would also be remiss if I didn’t communicate that we, the people, are vulnerable and I continue to fear that there is another terrorism shoe to drop in front of the election. As someone who’s been there, done that, I take no joy in sharing that sense.
* One of the unintended consequences of these latest government actions will be a severe shakeout in the hedge fund community, which we offered Friday would have profound consequences for Wall Street (both as a function of commission revenue and counter-party risk). Perhaps that played a hand in the effort to effectively shutter the world as we know it.
I got long gamma SRS Friday as a hedge. Vol came down so taking a hit on that, but OTM options are trading at 1/4 of what they were three days ago.
PnF hedge fund loves SRS long
“We are pursuing the evil-doers……….. We will make no distinction between those who short stocks and those who harbor them ” George Bush
I don’t know how many people have a spare $10k just laying around, to put into their new toaster fund. Not too many, I guess.
Fuck You, You’re Dead Again!
POOF! your bullshit government sponsored rally is gone!
I have sirens and red flashing lights going on in my office today, like some sort of nuclear submarine battle station.
Listen up and good: credit default swaps are scaring the shit out of everyone. Whether it should happen or not, people really do think the market will crash.
You have been warned!
Worst possible scenario.
Oil back to 200.
Interest rates to the moon.
Stock market to .01.
Politicians with no fucking idea how the economy works creating bail-in programs.
Armaggedon.
I’m bailin.
I’m moving back to Bali where my brokerage account will last three lifetimes.
Fuck this place.
too late to get in on gold? wait for a pullback?
Hey, you thought I was kidding last Thursday night?
Lock and load. Lock and load.
Up until 2003, all investment banks were allowed only 12 to 1 leverage. Then in 2004, the SEC basically gave five banks (and only five banks) the ability to lever up 30 or even 40 to 1. Bet you can guess the five banks.
Bear, Lehman, Merrill, Morgan and Goldman. Three down.
As Barry Ritholtz wrote: “So while the SEC runs around reinstating short selling rules, and clueless pension fund managers mindlessly point to the wrong issue, we learn that it was the SEC who was in large part responsible for the reckless leverage that led to the current crisis.”
I want to reiterate what I said last week.
This is no time for fuckers to make huge bets in the market. The gov’t bailout plan can cut your fuckin’ head off in either direction.
ALSO:
Outside of Gold. Even with the dollar dropping further, that by NO MEANS equates to higher fucktarded commodities. The world has yet to price in a major economic blowup in these commodities. We’re all fucked!
Bove said GS has been in the checking account business all along. I heard him say it on TV.
I’d like to use my entrenching tool to split his bald fucking head in two, and let all the moths out.
Q3 was a rough one for markets. Money managers might be taking profits against the Paulsonomics manufactured rally to make the books look better as the quarter winds down. I expected profit taking today and a choppy ride as the quarter ends. This was a gift, custom made for mutual fund managers, to dress up their end of quarter results. I see a flurry of buying as October begins and a crash in the same month as money goes in and out for a quick profit.
JMHO.
And yes DGP is about 50% of my portfolio right now.
Donny:
I assume that means your bullish the yellow metal like the FLY, just not other commodities?
Higher Gold = fear
Lower commodities = a fucked up economy
Truth told, Donny. Rock on.
The Wisdom of the Ages:
Donny: “We’re all fucked.”
Clinton on The View reviewing his admin actions and their responsibility for the current events
Hey FLY
What happened here:
emporarily, I am staying long banks, until (SKF: 97.59 -2.41%) hits the mid to high 80’s and Citigroup Inc. (C: 19.78 -4.21%) goose steps to $25. After that, I will direct my energy towards precious metals and oil, as the inflation panic reemerges its stupid head.
And then:
Suspicious of government men in clown suits, I refuse to bet against the banks here, even though it’s the “cool thing to do.”
Are you long of Citi or not?
HANS short ratio now over 40% Fly
UBS telling clients they expect a deal of some sort between HANS and KO to happen by tomorrow…..thinks most likely scenario is a distribution deal with an equity stake of 30-40% in which case stock trades to mid to high 30’s….thinks outright acquisition is still a possibility (worth $50)
at 29 worth a shot, loaded 29
I sold a lot of C on Friday. However, I am still long about 30,000.
Also, I am long UYG, SNV and IBKR.
Apple is down over 5 dollars today. I don’t like it. I don’t like it at all.
But I was thinking. Since Apple receives a lot of MONEY for their electronic gadgets, doesn’t this, ipso fatso, make THEM a financial institution??
MET, PRU, LM, comm RE getting bitch slapped
Gold/silver complex slapping bitches
Boogger
I read that shit the 10th time you posted it.
KO is not buying HANS. No fucking way. After the distribution agreement with Imbev expires, but not before, in my opinion.
Relax. We were up like 800+ points over the last two sessions.
I’m getting nervous about my WaMu trade, someone took 3million shares off the market and the price didn’t even budge to the upside. Not Good.
Fly, why are you listening to the fucksticks at JPM? SNV is going down just like I told you. SNV is a POS.
You guys, if you keep at least 1000 dollars in your Goldman Sachs checking account, they give you 100 checks for free! I got Rainbows and Clouds on mine. And the tellers are super nice!
I’m noticing a ton of new handles in the last few days. Newbies, please don’t turn this into a Yahoo message board.
Thank you.
I thought i could get a break from all this shit, so i took the day off.
But there i was, in the waiting room getting a new set of tires for my car…some old bastards quizing me on the market and asking if there money was safe. WTF????
I realized i shouldnt have worn a shirt with my old financial firms name on it.
Is there any escape of this bullshit
HANS thanks FLY…selling most from 29 at 29.74, still a good chance for a squeeze imo
Jefferson Krull for Treasury Secretary!
Good Times!
S&P upgrades VISA to Buy from Hold:
Recommendation: Our upgrade is based on valuation, recent business wins, and V’s preponderance of debit cards. V shares are currently trading roughly 20% lower than their high for the year, offering, in our opinion, an attractive
entry point. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 3.9****) recently announced it will move its debit card business
to V. Also, we note that roughly 50% of V’s outstanding cards are debit cards which we think bodes well
for spending volume, even with a slowdown in the international consumer. Our target price remains $87,
32.2X our FY 09 (Sep.) EPS estimate of $2.70.
S. Plesser
09/22/2008 11:39:42
Banked a bit off shorting homies today, notably DHI. TOL is above LOD, may be a bit more downside there for a scalp.
Little SKFie may be hobbled here, but SRS is a lesser substitute – odd, no? Where is a gold nut to brag about DGP?
5 mins ago:
09/22/08 12:26 pm ET … S&P REDUCES OPINION ON SHARES OF AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY TO SELL FROM HOLD (AVR 4.29**): U.S. ethanol producers have been squeezed by rising corn costs, and we expect U.S. corn prices to rise about 56% in ’08. Faced with reduced liquidity amid the construction of two new facilities, AVR is increasingly reliant on volatile ethanol spreads for funding. Based on a narrowed margin outlook, we are widening our estimated ’08 loss by $0.29 to $0.47, and cut ’09’s EPS by $0.91 to $0.34 and ’10’s by $2.25 to $0.42. Blending DCF and relative valuations, we are cutting our target price by $4 to $4, an expected enterprise value of 3.5X our ’09 EBITDA estimate. /T.Vital
308 stop spamming upgrades/downgrades, no one cares. Take your bullshit secondhand market analysis elsewhere