EUROPE DOESN’T WANT TO PAY IN RUBLES — CITES CONTRACT LAW

Russia is at war with a nation and the west is supporting that nation to wage war and kill Russians. The west seizes all of Russia’s FX reserves, even $100b in gold, and then balk at the idea of Russia demanding payment for gas in Rubles.

What sort of hubris is this?

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: PAYING FOR GAS IN RUBLES WOULD BREAK CONTRACTS
ITALY NOT INCLINED TO PAY RUBLES FOR RUSSIA GAS: DRAGHI ADVISER
ITALY ECON ADVISER: PAYMENT IN RUBLES WAY TO EXCAPE SANCTIONS

Do they believe Russia should just lay down and roll over — starve to death, permit NATO to takeover Moscow and subjugate their people with CRT classes and gender identity freedoms?

Markets are beginning to sour, but nearly reflective of the potential dangers of having the petrol-dollar destroyed. While it’s true, Europe is making arrangements for alternative sources of gas for 2023 — it’s also true they cannot import all of that LNG without incurring immense expenses. One could argue the people of Europe are suffering more than Russians — who now have to deal with the pangs of toxic western culture removed from their airwaves and shopping malls.

If the Rubles makes it back to where it was pre-Ukranian war, this will be viewed as a disaster for US policy against Russia and, in my opinion will have a profound effect in both markets and public opinion.

The dollar has only retained its value because of its currency reserve status. Since the war broke out, the US has done everything in its power to punish Russia, via seizures and sanctions. In many respects, these are tantamount to theft, the thievery of another nations gold and coin. We have seized over $400 billion in Russian dollars and gold and while some might view this as deserves, due to Ukraine, the ancillary effects of this form of warfare places immense doubt into the minds of other countries who once viewed western finance as stable and reliable.

This war has proven we are anything but reliable, instead more akin to a cabal.

Now with Europe forces to pay for gas in Rubles, one could expect a shift in sentiment concerning the Ruble and if that translates into a run on the dollar or the Euro — markets are going to get lit up. The markets do not see this yet and were all enjoying ourselves with stocks propelled higher, seemingly immune to the cross-currents. Then again, inflation is double digits, so how valuable is your dollar?

I wanted to emphasis the importance of this Ruble move and possible EXPANSION of Russian commodities for Rubles, which might in fact spread to uranium next.

It looks like Russia figured out a way to support the Ruble: Destroy the US petrol dollar trade by demanding payment for their gas in Rubles. I would expect this scheme to work in the interim, until America figures out how to fuck them. I would also expect Russia to demand this of their other commodities, especially Uranium.

PUTIN: RUSSIA TO DEMAND RUBLE GAS PAYMENTS FROM HOSTILE STATES

BELARUS TELLS SOME UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATS TO LEAVE COUNTRY – BELTA NEWS AGENCY

As a result, the Ruble is up more than 4% against the dollar and as you can see has certainly stabilized after mega-spiking to 170 USD.

NASDAQ FUTS are off 115 and WTI is spiking hard +3.4%. There is a variety of bullish chatter being passed along today on oil and, how bereft of Russian supplies, we should see prices careen higher by end of April.

On the war front, the rhetoric is increasing with each day and it’s only a matter of time now before NATO enters the conflict for the sake of Ukraine.

So you think you can trade you fucking faggots?

Starting 4/1 thru all of April, the good folks at Stocklabs will host a trading contest, using our in house portfolio trading tools. The winner of said contest will receive $1,000 cash.

2nd prize: A picture of a set of steak knives on a mug.

3rd prize: You’re banned.

You get the picture?

If you think you’re any good or want to take a shot at the King in April — stop by and submit your hat into the ring.

For the session, I closed +245bps, long complete shit, even leveraged, with a 15% position in TZA to hedge. I am long a dozen penny stocks, something I haven’t done in quit some time — because I’m +21% for 2022 and can afford to risk.

NEWSFLASH:

UKRAINE SPRING PLANTING AREAS MAY SHRINK 50% FROM PLANNED: RTRS

On top of the shortage coming from Ukraine, Russia is now a pariah state and Europe cannot get any of their wheat or fertilizer. You might not see it now, given the market’s grandeur and ribald nature in today’s tape — but war is inevitable and with it famine.

The first attack echelon of Belarusian armed forces in the amount of approximately 5000 troops is already formed and lined up along Ukraine's border, brigadier general Victor Yagunov of the intelligence community says

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 22, 2022

Here in the states, we will be mostly immune to such pangs. But Africa, Europe and Asia face substantial headwinds and pardon me for reminding you but Russia is going to attack everyone very soon.

That being said, the NASDAQ is +255 and Russia doesn’t want to occupy Ukraine — just destroy it.

The easy to read trend has been to fade the move in tech and redoubled one’s efforts into the commodity space. After a long rich day of trading successfully in tech, this is exactly what I intend to do by the close.

If you’re curious about my day — here is my ledger so far — all available to members of Stocklabs.

SIRS —

Just a week ago China was spiraling to zero. Since then the CCP got involved and told short sellers to fuck off. BABA upped their share buyback to $25b and the entire burrito industry caught fire, +30% the past week.

Around that time, actually at the very bottom, Jim Cramer told you to avoid China. Now you’re probably thinking I am going to turn this into a seething raving mad rant about Cramer and how he sucks and is a travesty for bald men everywhere.

And you’d be right about that.

There is nothing redeemable about Cramer’s commentary anymore. He has made his fortune. It is time for new blood to take over and for him to fuck off inside his Mexican guacamole restaurant. There was a point in time when Cramer mattered — but not anymore.

And let this be a lesson to you. What looks good today will make you cry tomorrow, and vice versa.

I closed out my Stocklabs guided TQQQ trade, since it’s 5 trading days since our last oversold signal. I am not sure if the rally is ending — but I have already made more than 22% on the trade and the entire account was invested in it.

We are seeing big moves in a variety of non-commodity stocks, as rotation once again creeps back into the tape, reminiscent of just about every bear market I have ever traded. One day the world is burning and the very next day the future is bright and wonderful. This morning was started with bullish notes from Mike Mayo on the banks, who tried to assuage people with the idea that BAC was unbelievably great and how spreads no longer mattered because, all of a sudden, he says they’re rigged. In Europe the ECB is saying ‘NO CHANCE’ of stagflation, even though German PPI is +25% and growth is slowing.

We live in a crazy place run by crazy people doing crazy things.

I am +91bps early going, as I have been selling out of commodities and diving back into tech — if only for a trade. I’m 41% cash and I think I’ll stay here and refrain from feeling too good about this tape — because who knows what news headline is next to tank the tape and crash the close.

Due to war with out 51st state, corrupt client state Ukraine, the leaders of the United States are applying a scorched earth brand of diplomacy, now going after China for not condemning and heeling to US demands.

Perpetrators of human rights abuses must continue to face consequences. The United States has taken action to impose visa restrictions on PRC officials for attempting to intimidate, harass, and repress dissidents and human rights defenders inside and outside of China.

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) March 21, 2022

U.S. CALLS ON CHINA TO END HONG KONG CRACKDOWN

WHITE HOUSE SAYS U.S. WANTS TO HEAR CHINA CONDEMN RUSSIA’S ACTIONS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE

ZH has full coverage on it.

My take is your government not only doesn’t care about what happens to you but instead are maliciously racing towards global conflict with their two chief opponents to global world order. They will spend your lives to achieve this and are prepared for varying degrees of national destruction to see its enemies vanquished. This brand of democracy is no different than feudal times when men were conscripted into war to further the ambitions of elites. While many of you enjoy playing armchair general at home, just know this war to come will hit you where you sleep and a draft will happen. We cannot fight a war against either Russia or China without manpower in the tens of millions.

The solution is simple: find a diplomatic out for Russia. Give them off ramp. Present policy is pursuing war; do not get fooled by silly notions such as peace.

Chinese sanctions will absolutely destroy our supply chain.

When the #Chinese people are pained by the tragedy of passenger flight MU5735, the #US Secretary of State is still spreading lies about "genocide" in China. How callous!

— Hua Chunying ??? (@SpokespersonCHN) March 22, 2022

The US 10yr was up an astounding 16bps today, WTI +7.3%, all thanks and praise to the inflation monster eating away at our buying power. The only way to keep up with this double digit inflation is to hedge, via INCREASING your net worth. You can do this easily via buying commodity related stocks.

I did this and gained nearly 400bps today, in frantic trading. I also took sojourns into several EV stocks, CENN, LILM, AYRO and banked on them too. My strategy is simple: hedge every close, focus core on commodities (ag, steel, oils) trade around it by using the volume tools made available in Stocklabs.

Year to date, I am now up 18.4%. My algorithm based account, which went all in on TQQQ last week, will be liquidated tomorrow and placed in cash until the next OS signal. My opinion on the direction of the tape is mixed. Long term I feel we are doomed. I do, however, acknowledge we are in a period of calm normality even in the midst of war and could see stocks jimmy higher. There is substantial headline risk in this tape and that’s why I believe every close should be hedged. I chose a 10% UVXY position today.

Cheers.

New Record Highs, Le Fly

Just a friendly reminder that Ukraine-Russia-Belarus make up the majority of wheat and potash exports into Europe. Also, let’s not forget the Zebra.

Hopefully the freedom loving people from Africa will join the boycotting of Russian exports and stand up to tyranny pic.twitter.com/Z5z0zITYAa

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 20, 2022

Wheat is higher by 5% today and potash prices continue to climb, effectively placing the nuts of farmers in a vice.

Spot Urea

“Russia is a major, major exporter across all of the major fertilizers,” says Linville. “Urea, they account for 14% of the global export total. UAN has been anywhere from 25% to 31% the last couple of years. Phosphate 10%. They are almost 20% of the global operating potash capacity of the entire world. They’re a big deal. Losing Russian exports is a very big deal. I don’t care where you are in the earth, it matters to you.”

On top of that, China represents about 30% of the world’s phosphate market, which is currently halted for export. Should things worsen with China, prices will continue to skyrocket in the ag space.

I’m keeping it simple in my trades. Due to this supply disruption prices have soared but with it production. All of the major fertilizer producers are ramping up production, which at some point might lead to a glut, but not yet.

I like MOS, ICL and ancillary ag science plays RKDA, YTEN and SEED. There are quite a few of them to choose from and I might move into others before the close.