If this pullback turns into something more, such as another failed bear market rally, it will poleax every single stock market cheerleader, starting with Cramer.
People like Cramer and his ilk have been out in front, telling everyone to suck the pants off of this market. Hell, we are just two months away from a housing bottom, according to Cramer.
One thing is for certain: Should we go back to new lows, the market will be fucked on a spindle for the rest of 2009. Taking a look at today’s action, it is very disconcerting. Ag plays like MOS, POT and TNH are being taken to the cleaners, as well as all oil/gas plays. Also, there is broad weakness, amongst all sectors (minus gold), led by banks, retailers, insurance names and REITS aka the bear market rally winners.
Very classic, indeud.
Basically, we are back in the funnel, being lowered into the DEFLATIONARY VORTEX.
To play the vortex game, you need to be long treasuries, dollars and short stocks. Also, you can bet against eurotrash, via DRR. And, early cycle recovery plays, like the semi’s, via short sales of KLAC, INTC or long SSG.
Now, I am objective enough to accept the possibility that this dip is nothing more than a way station higher, at least until May. So, with my money, I will NOT commit much capital. Moreover, if I do, it will be placed in low beta investments, like TLT.
However, should the market continue to weaken, I will get emboldened and begin short sales in ACC, WRI and HME. For the moment, MAC is a bit too low for my taste—fyi.
And, finally, I will likely initiate some sort of bear position on oil today, via SCO or DUG/ERY. On the long side, I don’t like much of anything right now, short of TLT, UUP and maybe a little GLD.
NOTE: The carnage in LNC, PFG and MET, amongst other insurance names is alarming. Keep a close eye on them.
UPDATE: As per the Obama conference, he will be bankrupting Chrysler in 30 days and GM in 60. Basically, insurance stocks and banks are feeling the brunt, due to the enormous amount of debt and preferred stock out there. Regarding GM: the debt load is egregious. When the haircuts come, banks and insurance firms will take knives to the eyes.
UPDATE II: I bought 2,000 SCO @ $31.10
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GET IN THE FUNNEL!!
Shorting bread, pasta, burritos and buffalo wings (PNRA, AIPC, CMG, BWLD).
I’m hungry
Fly why are you not getting short CRE here? Just wondering what your thoughts are.
Funnel, Schmunnel.
Not today.
Watch to see if DJIA 7500 holds and if we move above 780 should get a nice pop for daytraders.
Watching GS long if this happens.
A Spitzer in and out.
And if it doesn’t happen tomorrow will be another day.
By the way, that Obama reads a mean teleprompter.
What’s that loud sucking sound coming from my wallet? Oh, its just a deflationary vortex!
Because the mark to market announcement is Thursday. I do not want to be heavily short into that fuckery.
So, Obamam is going to bankrupt Chrysler in 30 days and GM in 60.
Did I read that right?
All of the stupid incentives are informercial like.
Is Obama a joke?
Government auto warranties now?
He sounded like Billy Mays.
Next up: THE OBAMA HEALTHCARE PLAN, pitched by Bill Mays.
UAW officials getting assfucked…this is great…yrs of corrupt bullshit…suck an Audi bitches.
TLT?????
Get a car and deduct the taxes now because we can’t do this all day.
Vince ‘the slap chop guy’
Bob Right? What is going on with bonds. I’ve got Bnd and Tbt, As an i don’t know what the fuck to do hedge. they are going up!
And then up next will be the Obama approved Vegematic, Mighty Obama Putty, and ObamaPaws (to cut your pet’s nails).
Spokesman will be Sloppering Barney Frank.
I didn’t mean go to 6600 TODAY.
Yipes.
/smirk
In honor of Vince from ShamWow, I bought a little C. Yes, it may be bruised – but I think it could punch this whore of a market in the face very soon, with all the M2M talk and whatnot.
TLT taking a little hit. No biggie.
Isay: Of course they are going up, people are rushing to safety. I would stay out of TBT for now. I sold mine at 46.50 and will re-enter around 40. If you need to hedge just buy TLT. By the way if you don’t understand the instrument I would not advise trading it.
I’ve been playing TBT and can’t figure out if this fuckery will lead to higher interest rates or Japanese style fuckery with low bond yields for a couple of years. We shall see.
GGP no longer requesting reprieve on debt repayments.
In short, here it comes. GGP has more than 25 bill in debt.
CRE will get hit on this news.
Everytime TLT goes up, I go a little “On Tilt”.
F going green….fuck the other automakers — Ford will be the sole survivor.
Long F calls.
I wish I would have taken Fly’s SRS and Faz picks on Friday. I really use the Fly’s picks to make myself feel better about my own investments.
i’m with fly and DSB. this M2M fuckery is of the highest order and i wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see info leaked and FAS up 2pts leading into it.
that’s just my paranoid side, however.
iShares S&P 1500 Index: ISI Large Number of Bearish Crossings
The S&P 1500 had a very large number of bearish crossings down through the 10-day moving average today, at last count 705. This suggests not that just a few stocks are pulling down indexes, but rather that this is signaling a trend change from bullish to bearish. As long as this large a number of stocks are reversing, it will be very difficult for the indexes to resume a bullish posture
Why does Phil Lebow take the GM failure so personal? Is he a co shill? Is he long GM call options?
WTF?
Fly- thats funny Lebow is dickhead..hope he gets his ankles run over by the last Hummer off the line..
kidstock, i think F is building good cars. they’re going to be survivors for sure. i’m not long or short, but i think they emerge as the dominant US car maker.
Lebow is like that because his only job is to report on autos apparently and if one more Auto Co. goes out of business he could be replaced by an elf (like Geithner).
i don’t know lebow’s background, but he certainly sounds like a shill for the big 3. maybe he and fat nesto should mud wrestle to see who gets to be the new fast money host.
fly……stock market is crumbling….fed is buying treasuries…but still TLT cant get out of its own way…. gap up is closed and looks like it wants to paint a bearish engulfing daily candle…….sounds like a serious problem in bond land
The US doesn’t need an auto industry. My fucking neighbor has 5 cars. Why the fuck does he need 5 cars? Every household in America has at least 3 cars. Ford goes down too.
Indeud.
After the cars, the airliners are next. We have enough stupid planes.
After that, then defense. We have enough fucking tanks and bombs.
Fly, nice call on the drop. First time poster, long time reader. Check out this link – SEC filing from Direxion last month…adding more fun with 3x ETF’s. Thought you might find a few of these quite interesting.
http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1389426/000089843209000245/rafferty-40app.htm
F is also in a good position because of Mazda, who is making GREAT cars.
From Ed Wallace’s Inside Automotive:
http://www.insideautomotive.com/documents/GMsPreformance.pdf
Gappin,
Thanks for the advice. The Bnd is not for trading, it is corporate bond exposure and yield. It is my flight to safety. Tbt is a gamble and I am up about a buck. I am aware of the treasuries that they are selling. Does printing them up mean they are already sold and people are flooding in? Isn’t cash an option vs. treasuries if yield is going to drop.
Oh the age of entitlement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rF2tXl5-TcQ
I am fucking sick of these people, no one owes you shit. Even you fuckers on here are of this mindset thinking “The Fly” must post for you. Fuck what is wrong with people these days.
Isay: Unless you have a locked rate on your cash there is no reason to hold it against Treasuries. As soon as the FED said they would buy up Treasuries people rushed back in. If you want to play along with the FED buy TLT. I personally will bet against him via TBT soon. If you are up a buck I would consider that a good position and add to it until 38. Its not the printing of bills that runs them up its the auctions and the purchase interest. But couple that with a fed effectively setting rates its hard to be a bear on them short term. I would just take it slow and build up a solid position. Its a lower beta bet either way versus equities.
Crazy action in the April put options for WFC. The April 11 puts have traded over 126k contracts. Someone knows something here. Leads me to believe that WFC is in trouble. Maybe the stress test is not going well??? Who knows but that is insane action in those puts
The cruiselines have already been hit and orders for new floating beheamoths have been cut. Last week I saw a piece on tv focusing on NCL and they cut their order by 50%, i.e. one ship. They are so desperate for passengers that they’d rather give away a cabin for next to nothing so that they can soak you with the incidentals which account for a large percentage of their profits. They even had a purser or some such uniformed employee on who shamelessly admitted to the scams and revenue-generating devices that they employ. At one point I could swear I heard him say: “We try to squeeze every last nickel from the pigeons…I mean… valued passengers.”
Good. Fuck the muslime-terrorist-loving quisling pricks.
Cruise on Carnival or RCL.
Swatter:
So they shouldn’t make any money at all. Very new administration like of you.
-TMoe..wow that is crazy volume on Wells…thanks will follow it…
Nice find Moe.
Obama says that if your tires are not properly inflated, forget about the warranty. Also, there will be no more black cars – air conditioner running costs are higher, you see.
perhaps an Obama hood ornament…Stalin style..or Mussolini…hmmmmm interesting….Bet the bars in Detroit are packed today…civil unrest there shortly…fuck those retards.
Gappin’
I hear ya. and you are right, I’ve only been a trader since I was forced to raise cash last year.
I want my money baaack… in the voice so Sam Kinneson
I love yew guys..In the voice of South Park Kenny
america should realise other countries built certain things well and we should let them do it.
Japan gets all the electronic industry.
Germany/Japan gets all the car industry.
France gets all the wine and hairy armpit runway model industry.
Russia gets the vodka and mail order bride industry.
China can burn in hell.
Mexico gets the burito and taco industry.
and we, America just does what we do best = drink beer, fart, shop for la-z-boys, grill hamburgers, turn empty fields into flea-markets, complain, build more titty bars (this I am trying to help out as best I can) and consume as much electricity off the grid and gasoline as possible so we can complain some more……
as the late great George Carlin said “some people are complaining they are not meeting their needs….well I say how about DROPPING SOME OF YOUR FUCKING NEEDS!”
carry on.
–
Misstrade posted this explanation of the big flaw in Li’l Tim’s bank bailout plan.
You golden pocket protector types have probably already figured this out, but I found it educational:
http://misstrade.wordpress.com/2009/03/30/the-great-flaw-in-the-geithner-plan-explained/
Moe’s find is indeed good news for Fly’s stock pick of 2009
J–
Leaving me another neg and a negative post. Are you sure that you aren’t Fly or is it that you just have a hard-on for me?
Try to read more carefully. I said I have no problem with RCL, Carnival, etc. making money; it’s just that I hate the Norwegians for political reasons. Do I have to support all Jew-hating, Israel-bashing and boycotting, muslime/arab countries and entities as well or do I have a choice in who I give my hard-earned $$ to? What’s good for the antisemitic goose is good for the decent gander.
Anyone know what happens if DPRK pulls the trigger? I expect there will be fallout (no pun) from it. Yen should start freaking the fuck out.
Nothing to see, it was just the futures.
http://www.wbaltv.com/news/19044505/detail.html
Point taken.. Swatter. I never realized they were Norwegian. Go ahead, hate them for the anti-Israeli bastards they are. Their gals a nice looking though.
I agree fuck em.
Prospectus:
Ford sold almost all of their Mazda holdings and is no longer part of the organization. Tried to get an A plan Mazda but it was too late
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aCfhpjH__de0&refer=asia
Anyone on here care to compare pros and cons of SCO vs DUG?
Thanks in advance.
Mars.
TheArtist said:
“Germany/Japan gets all the car industry”
Agree 100%…
I live in Thailand. Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi and even GM all have vast plants here. The average salary in those factories per month for the assemly line worker is 180 U$D per month. Benefits, in their grand total, amount to just a bit more than fuck all.
The US car industry as we know it is dead. Toyota reported a loss this year for the first time in something like 18 years, considering the sweat shop rates that are baked into their product it would seem that it is impossble for US based car manufacturing to even pay interest on bail out loans, let alone compete.
By the way, are you guys aware that GM went to the Thai governemnt asking for bail out funds?
The Thai governments responce was something along the lines of “get the fcuk out of our country” 🙂
Fly, it’s because Phil Lebeau is a shockingly biased cunt.
You remember my article about Matt Nesto and Phil Lebeau http://tinyurl.com/ctarvh
Flyswatter,
“I hate the Norwegians for political reasons. Do I have to support all Jew-hating, Israel-bashing and boycotting, muslime/arab countries and entities as well ”
STFU – do some research – you are no better than the racisim you decry.
NCL Corp is based out of MIAMI
50% owned by Star – based out of HONG KONG
50% owned by Apollo – based in NEW YORK
Like all lines, NCL is not perfect but they deliver a really solid product – just went on a Med cruise with them and had a GREAT time. Yes, they want you to drink and buy crap but if you spent 500m-1b per boat, you would run the business the same way (well, maybe you would have skinheads at the door to make sure only the right people got in – but you get the point.)
Excellent, hilarious story about cramer pal, fraudulent douchebag Lenny Dykstra by the former photo editor of his “players’ club” magazine:
http://men.style.com/gq/features/landing?id=content_8558
I have been averaging into DUG and SRS since the rally started. It is starting to look like it may payoff.
Anton, I read that article and the guy is still waiting for his money. Dykstra is a buffoon and fits in well with Cramers machine
Had great profit in AVAV and OLN .failed to capitalize on them last week and profit down 60%…so pissed at myself I can’t dedide whether to bail or hold..
This is one reason I sold a portion of my DXO and did not add to it last week. However I will sell no more and will look to start buying back at 2.50. My cost basis is about 60 cents from current levels so no need to panic out and try to re-enter. Additionally I will soon be taking down a position in RICK around 3.50. The place is frequented by Rick “Dirty Sanchez” Santelli and I want a piece of the action as traders start spreading around their cash as we rebound. Trade accordingly.
Isay,
He was so hyped by cramer, on TV and on his website, that I think several people got fooled. I’ve seen virtually no reporting about the blowup and lawsuits, so I posted the story.
Watch this —
Your reading comprehension is troublesome. Why would he have “skinheads at the door” if he was just decrying the Norwegians for their anti-Semitism?
____________
Aside: An inadvertant typo that I fixed above, gave me an idea for naming this site’s distate for Knight and Sykes….
“Anti-Timism”
________
Fly:
“Why does Phil Lebow take the GM failure so personal? Is he a co shill? Is he long GM call options?”
No more trips on the GM G5. Ford uses a fleet of Cessna’s.
Caution on the WFC puts:
Sometimes, I sell puts to build a position in a stock, or if I think the stock is going up and the puts priced too dear.
Just food for thought….
___________
Fly —
I’m vexed at you.
And no, it’s got nothing to do with your inflexible permabearish positions.
It’s that you “raced” past one of your all time great headlines in order to make this new post, with a much more boring header.
Couldn’t all that was said above have been appended to the wholly excellent “Here Comes the Needle of Death?”
Or maybe you could have just carried the theme… “Needle of Death Takes the Bulls in the Jugular” or some such?
_________
Jake,
exactly!
…because he is a moron
in case you missed it above, he won’t sail NCL (Norwegian Cruise Lines) because he has some issues with Norwegians.
Hey, what about Carnival – they harm elephants! Dumb fuck.
(you might have to think about that one for a minute but it will come to you).
A death needle/doomsday clock/smiley face icon reminiscent of the Watchmen graphic would be a nice touch.
The death needle is like cowbell: We need more of it.
To watch this:
Pleased as punch that you had a great time. I cruise every year on other cruise lines and most likely have had better times. Perhaps you should move up to the top-of-the-line cruise lines like me.
Now, to your “points,” firstly, I was just pointing out how funny it was that an NCL employee was actually admitting on camera to all of the tricks of the trade.
Again and for the 3rd time, dummy, I have no problem with Carnival, RCL, etc. making $ and even suggested cruising those lines.
I don’t give a shit if any of the Jew-hating countries that are either at war with Israel, support those that are, boycott Israel or condone open and rampant antisemitic acts in their or other countries “deliver a really solid product,” I will not financially support them. And even if NCL is NY-based, blah, blah, blah sometimes it’s the message that counts. I’ll give my cruise and cheese money to others. Two can play at that boycott game.
Re your comment re racisim (sic), neither Norwegians, Jews, Muslims or arabs are races.
Lastly, are you suggesting that NCL or I have/would have “skinheads at the door to make sure that only the right people get in”? If it’s the former, you’ve proved my point. If it’s the latter, it makes no sense.
Flyswatter,
I had & have one point.
Any of the other crap you are spouting about is not relevant to this point – just an attempt at distraction from the fact that you jumped to the wrong conclusion and made idiotic statements based on complete ignorance.
NCL is NOT a Norwegian company and NO NO NO, it is not the message that counts.
You did NOT say “I don’t like that they try to create an association with Norwegians” you said “Fuck the muslime-terrorist-loving quisling pricks.”