JUNE IS IN THE BOOKS; JULY TO THE RESCUE?

I was thinking for months now that we were riding the 2002 timeline all over again, barreling into recession. If that’s the case, July looms, as we decedent -8.6% in July of 2002 following a 13% rout in June.

Aside from 2002, the only time markets fell in July was in 2006.

The numbers for July are eye-opening. We have risen 14 years in a row in the patriotic month —- and the returns are impressive.

Data via Stocklabs

For June, heading into the final day of trade, I am up roughly 5%.

I was flat for the session, 75% cash, UNWILLING to partake in the chicanery of a tape blessed with stupidity. I will have you know, the worst is looming and with it — SHARPLY LOWER STOCK PRICES.

It’s worth noting, I am being especially careful on purpose — since I do not intend to give back even more than 5% of my gains to Mother Market. It might BEHOOVE you to see me trading so methodically and without real excitement. But, this isn’t a fucking game and I’m not doing this for a likes or the subscribers. This is my fucking life you sons a bitches and the money I have invested will grow and my wealth will come from that — not from the bastards who run ads on my website.

There are times to press the envelope and times to take a step back. Take a step back pal.

WTI is still up on the day — but oil stocks are getting fucking poleaxed today, amidst all of the pomp and circumstance one is accustomed to when seeing a collapse.

Oils across the board are down in excess of 4%, which demands this question:

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON HERE?

It can only be one thing: investoor liquidation based upon fears of a slowing economy.

The gains are quite egregious. This was an area of the market strewn with dead corpses, now enlivened by first MONKEY POX, and then abortion plays, and now whatever is moving. We’ve entered the arena of the ribald and this sort of risk never dies in a day.

Over the past two weeks, these FUCKERS have done best.

ALNA, EVFM, EPZM, MREO, FEMY, RAIN, FSTX, AEZS, LXRX, AXSM etc.

We are looking at gains upwards of 50% and we are also seeing it continue today, in an otherwise moribund/uneventful tape.

Today’s chicanery is taking place in BBI (+89%), ALNA (+211%), AEZS (+69%) and SLNO (+20%).

I am trying my hand at one: LXRX — not because I like the company — but because I’m a degenerate gambloor.

I sold it all, up 35bps for the session as a gentleman should in a dastardly tape, such as this. I have decided to work less today — due to UNFORSEEN events that have unfolded, which have, in large part, made me furious.

As a boy I had a sharp temper and once threw my best friend out from a tree, as a result. I’d get so mad I’d turn red (yes I am white) and use my anger to punch the faces of other people. As I grew older I fought less because it’s degenerate; and as an adult — I have yet to partake in a match of fist o’ cuffs. But sometimes I do feel like it. Deep down, we are all base creatures who fall victim to carnal desires. Although I am, admittedly, quite good at temperance and pretty much never fall prey to vice.

That being said, FUCK OFF.

I am in cash because this tape is dreadful. I am already up. I am in a bad mood. And lastly, I am suspicious of bulls wanting to pick up live grenades — because they’re assholes and deserve to get their limbs blown off.

All of the finest oils and Ags are running hot again, following several weeks of recession fears and sharply lower prices. It seems, at least for the time being, we are MOST concerned about the supplies of grain and energy, as the Russian war wages on — threatening the very existence of Europe.

I suppose the market thought the Middled East would pump more crude for us — but it now appears that’s not the case. The CEO of Shell said today the Middled East has barely any more capacity left — and that we should prepare for doom. That last part was a bit of paraphrasing on my behalf.

But what are we talking about in late June, as the warmer climes grace us with their pleasant presence. WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD to Autumn and Winter in Berlin with the Russian war machine potentially engaged with NATO at that time. I would dare say, me being bold and all, the Russians might not supply their enemies with fuel under such a scenario. Without NATO’s engagement into Ukraine, it’s over. The war has already been lost —- since Russia now controls territory in UKR that makes up 80% of their GDP.

On that backdrop, and any backdrop that doesn’t include immediate peace talks with Russia, both oil and grain are good bets heading into what arguably could be the last season of normalcy in Europe for sometime.

We crashed the fucking close and I finished at session highs +120bps. Are you surprised? Well you shouldn’t. This is standard stuff during market collapses. I quite literally cannot be stopped and even when wrong, I have tweaked my methods to reduce churn greatly and also risk. My variance is low and my sharpe is high.

In short, I have never traded better in my life and given the circumstances — +3.3% for June — I find myself calm and relaxed and in complete control of my fate. If you do not feeeel the same, you’re likely taking too much risk and not calibrated correctly with the market.

Are you seeing the market — or just seeing what you want to see?

You thought it was fun and games — but now you’re swimming in capital losses. I did warn you not to get involved with that. Early this morning you were ENTREATED to a strong market and now you are presented with a deleterious one. PREPARE FOR LOWER PRICES AMIDST BLACK CLOUDS AND WHISTLING CHARDS OF METAL.

With the NASDAQ down over 300, I have no desire to jump in now into the close, which will be crashed.

We are quite literally in the 2nd inning of this SELF IMPOSED energy embargo. The ramifications of such stupidity, plus the loss of PAX AMERICANA, cannot be priced in.

You’re all making ribald gains in your biotech piece of shit stocks, aren’t ya? The war rages and winter looms yet your appeal to risk aversion is zero — because you’re a spoiled little boy who has been coddled your entire trading career by the dicksuckers at the Federal Reserve.

But guess what?

The party is over pal and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

As I wrote this, oil stocks are screaming higher, based off the very minor issue of EUROPE BEING WITHOUT FUCKING HEAT this coming winter.

The gig is up. Your schemes have been laid bare. The beginning of the end is now.

I’m long some refiners and still short banks, extra salty because that trade isn’t going my way.

Yesterday in a staged yet candid moment, Macron made a direct appeal to Biden for more oil, informing him the Saudis were unable to produce much more.

Biden was counting on Arab nations to produce more oil but a few hours ago French President Macron was overheard telling Biden that the United Arab Emirates is at max capacity & the Saudis can’t produce much more. It appears to be a direct appeal to Biden to produce more oil. pic.twitter.com/vRWJVpn3El

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) June 27, 2022

While it would be nice for us to give Europe more oil, they really ought to remember we are facing a much graver risk than mere Russian artillery shelling. We are facing world ending global warming. As such, we cannot and will not produce more oil for them, whilst at the same time we will also ramp up the war in the Ukraine and push Europe to war with Russia. While they might need more oil to move around their small little environmentally friendly armies, in the big scheme of things — the faster Russia is able to de-industrialize all of Europe the faster we might reduce our carbon footprint and save the planet.