18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
European leaders meet on Friday in an effort to solve the debt crisis. Logic would dictate, given the recent market volatility, that Merkel and Sarkozy will come to an agreement and all will be well and good. The problem with that theory: LOGIC DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EUROZONE.
I’ve decided to expedite my selling ahead of the Friday fuckfest. I’m looking at the recent run and feel grateful that my year has been salvaged. It would be, mind you, incredibly irresponsible of me to press my bets near the top end of the trading range. Each and every time we’ve tried to breach these lofty levels, investors sold in great size and ferocity. I want to be a seller at these levels, ideally into strength.
Moreover, in my personal aggressive account, I will begin buying TZA in tranches, all based upon the mathematical precision of The PPT. Just so you know, the Godly folks at iBankCoin are in the process of concluding a study on trading the Overall Hybrid scores. The results will be forthcoming and will be nothing less than staggering.
Bottom line: this market is holding up incredibly well and the economy is doing better. However, I can’t put the fate of my financial destiny in the hands of the fucking perverts who operate inside of the EUROZONE.
In case you were unaware, living underneath a dirty garbage dumpster or something, starting 1/1/12 membership prices for 12631 are going up. See details here. Only PPT members are permitted to join the storied halls of 12631. So, in case you were on the fence for giving both services a shot, anytime between right now and year end is the last chance you will have to lock in lower prices.
All current members will be “Grandfathered” in ( I always wanted to say that) at the absurdly low prices of today. Once 2012 comes, POOF, the price for membership rises from $29.99 to $49.99. Might I note, $49.99 is still 50% less than most subscription services out there, peddled by degenerates. If you take a calculator to the price structure, you will find the annual subscription rate of $25 per month to be embarrassingly inexpensive. If I were you (thank God I am not), I’d convey a message of great urgency to my wife to “lock in these fucking prices” and fast.
Bar-none, 12631 is the best intra-day, swing trading service on the internet today, run and operated by real pros. This is not the sort of shit you read about on low tiered sites by people claiming grandeur through penny stock bullshit. We are talking real talent here.
Starting 2012, the focus of iBankCoin will be to upgrade The PPT to reflect all of the ideas swirling around in my head. All of the upgrades will be added on to the service, free of charge. You will be amazed by the next iteration of PPT. It will transform the way you look at stocks.
So take the advice from this guy and quit being a piker.
NOTE: Remember, the annual March Madness contest, where I give away a $1,000 cash prize to the winner, is open to members only.
I am going to be a bit more methodical, as 2011 winds down. There is no fucking way I am going to cede these gains in the last three weeks of trade. Therefore, I am officially in sell mode, unwilling to play the euro-game.
I sold out of AG and a little AKS, upping my cash position to 20%. Earlier today, I doubled down in RBCN–reducing my cost basis to $10.5. Rarely do I double down in a dog. However, RBCN has all of the markers of a short squeeze waiting to happen and indeud it did.
So the dicksuckers at S&P are going to put Europe on credit watch negative. Well, color me surprised because last I checked the entirety of the EU was on the precipice of total and absolute collapse two weeks ago. In other words, welcome to two weeks ago, fuckfaces from S&P.
Bottom line: I am big into GSVC, LULU, RBCN, AKS and CVI. I intend to close out the year with gains ranging from 17-20%. Please do not misconstrue my TZA purchase as being bearish. It is nothing more than a small trade, in light of the S&P news. I will likely blow it out tomorrow, providing the downside horror show doesn’t materialize.
I cannot believe Italian yields are below 6%. Spanish yields are at 5.14% and the crisis that was running red hot two weeks ago has vanished, literally. There is now panic buying taking place in distressed European debt and global equities and sell offs in German and American paper.
It’s all very nice that we get to enjoy this respite. However, don’t forget about declining global growth, which will pose as a significant headwind in 2012. I am all for this GORILLA RUN now. However, in 2012, my outlook is very somber and I believe profits should be taken, especially if you can’t take the heat.
When enjoying melt ups like this, remember the pain you felt just two weeks ago. This rally, as “awesome an amazing” as it is, will end. There is a specific algorithm to this market. I have proved this by inventing The PPT. If my edge is greater than 50%, I am ahead of the game. We are running analysis on the lifetime of PPT scores and the data is absolutely astounding.
Peaks and valleys. The market is a like a terrain filled with low and high points. It is your job to lighten up near the top and reload near the bottom. If you can do this without blowing yourself up, you will have a great investment program. Having said that, profits should be taken up here in increments. That doesn’t mean you sell everything and go short. You will not hurt yourself by putting 20-30% of your assets to cash. The greed you people demonstrate is grotesque and almost unbelievable.
Also, stop overweighting in 1-3 stocks. If you cannot afford to invest in at least 5 stocks, you are gambling. If you can live with that, so can I. However, some of you Uncle Fuckers have millions in the market and buy 1-3 stocks, hoping to hit pay dirt. Are you fucking insane? Your lack of respect for money is borderline criminal.
I sense weakness in this tape. Buyers are exhausted and sellers are creeping in. Several of my positions are red today and I’ve shed 1/3rd of my intra-day gains. I am not worried about the bottom falling out because European yields are cratering. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have an ordinary, olde fashioned sell off.
Following my double down in RBCN, I ceased all buy orders. I am a seller into further strength and will reserve my cash for dips.
Many of you are catching full bans from the site today. I’ve been monitoring many of you and have decided you offer zero value. Therefore, as the market melts the fuck up, your viewership privileges will be revoked. If you missed this rally, you shouldn’t be in the market.
Santa Claus is real and he’s gonna chop your heads off while you sleep.
Into the melt-up, I will push the envelope in names like CVI, GSVC, AKS, LULU and WNR. I own a lot of AG too. However, I may be a seller of that shit, all depending on the mood of my urinal shadows. For the day, “The Fly” will be celebrating his revival from the depths of hades, as his holdings appreciate towards ALL-TIME-FUCKING-HIGHS.
I just wrote 200 words of drivel about how this market was on the verge of punching short sellers in the face through late January. I deleted the post, then proceeded to defeat my youngest in a game of chess. It’s really stupid for anyone to make long term predictions at this stage in the game. The truth of the matter is, the market is running on faith now. Technicals and fundies have a limited effect on the market. The daily fluctuations of this tape are dictated by the news flow out of Europe. We’ve all known this for sometime now. Pardon my redundancy.
About a month ago, I was sitting high on the hog, spitting at people down below, with annual gains of 16%. Then, all of a sudden, Mother Market chopped my hands off, preventing me from pushing the sell button as the market plunged amidst euro-panic. I shed an amazing 16% aka all of my gains in three short weeks. At the very lows of the market, I was distraught, feeling a sense of defeat and helplessness, as the news turned from bad to worse. I held my positions, only because of my Kamikaze mentality. If my personality was different, I probably would have sold to protect assets from going negative for the year. I rationalized my reasons for being long, declaring that gold/silver miners (then 40% of assets) would benefit greatly under a euro collapse. Luckily, as seems to be a common occurrence throughout my investing career, the worm turned big time last week, allowing me to recoup a staggering 13%.
Upon receiving this great boon, I booked profits in all of my miners, except AG, repositioning the funds elsewhere. Why? To be honest, I don’t know. I just didn’t like the way EXK, NGD and RGLD were trading early Friday morning. I realized selling them would go against everything I’ve been saying for the past month. But, to me, nothing else was more important than making money. My opinions change often and I cannot help that. This will confound most of you, especially new people to the site. If you follow my moves over time, however, you will learn to understand the method behind my madness.
Let’s take the example of TEA. I penned an article on TEA when the stock was $24, declaring it could become “the next big thing” in retail. In addition to my bullish points, I pointed to the fact that the shares were very expensive and it could drop by 50% without pause. The reason why I didn’t buy it was the same reason why I sold NFLX @ $90. I could not rationalize being long high risk names, with questionable valuations, into a shit storm of negative news flow. In a way, I got lucky. After all, I liked the story and did not feel the excessive valuation was a huge concern, considering high growth names like PNRA, AMZN and CMG have been “expensive” for years. I just used my gut, and as a result, avoided a murderhole.
The same thing happened with my LULU last week. On earnings day, the stock cratered 8 points. I was very close to just booking the 20% loss and moving on. However, I could not justify booking the loss given the paltry bear case. The earnings were good. People were bugging the fuck out. By closing time, the stock was down just $2, recovering $6 from 9:31am. The next morning, it caught an upgrade, leading to a $2.5 melt up. Another disaster averted.
My point is this: investing successfully is a lot more than reading balance sheets or charting moving averages. It is an art. As an artist, I look at things that many of you might not even notice. On the other hand, my jaded view on stocks often prevents me from enjoying huge winners. It’s a trade off that I am comfortable with because it works for me–having crushed this tape every year since 2003. If your philosophy has never worked for you, do not be afraid to get radical and try something different. Over the course of my career, I was a balance sheet guy, bond guy, VC guy, iPO guy, bank stock guy, biotech guy, tech guy, healthcare guy, military contractor guy and even a chart guy. I’ve endured millions in losses before it all “clicked.”
Do not lose faith in your ability to make intuitive decisions. Is it luck or skill, who knows? At the end of the day, does it really fucking matter?
I dodged some serious munitions today, matrix style, by selling RGLD, NGD, BZH and EXK. I didn’t exactly knock the cover off the ball with new purchases, but I saved a great deal of money through using the power of intuition.
I can sense the groove is back, as I am able to make money at will again. For the day, I gained 1.3%, putting YTD returns in the mid 13% range. I am really feeling GSVC, ahead of the Zynga and Facebook ipo’s and feel it’s only a matter of time until real money is allocated into this stock. I’ve been trying to reach out to management. But they seem to not give a fuck about their investors. The truth of the matter is, I am one of their biggest independent investors, owner of several hundred thousand shares. Yet, these brainless goat-fuckers can’t find 10 minutes to entertain my rage. I am sure Mr. Moe will read this and suddenly become a bit more receptive, although I wouldn’t bet on it.
The refiners have bottomed. There I said it. I am an owner and buyer of WNR and CVI on weakness. I can buy a lot more too, as both positions are not large.
I held onto one precious metal stock, AG, and it did okay. I am a buyer of silver miners on dips, but a seller of AG above $17.
It was a great week and you should be proud of yourselves for holding the front lines in the face of grotesque panoply, fending off attacks by jheri curl’d bears. Don’t fall asleep at the turret, however. The grimaldi men will be back at it next week or my name isn’t Captain Swordsman (no homo).
