One More Great Trade Until September

I emphatically believe the back and forth between a wholesale liquidation of the global financial system and not is setting up for one spectacular long-only trade. The news will come, as sure as I am sitting here, leading to a grotesquely ferocious rally. My gains, now currently at 5% YTD, will triple in one to two trading sessions. At that point, I will sell, never look back, and go on vacation until September.

The temptation will be there to keep playing, pressing bets into the slumbering summer heat. However, it will be a suckers bet. The resolution of Greece will only extend to Spain, then Italy, then Portugal etc. This all ends in massive losses. Before that occurs, however ironically, there will be massive gains to be had–most of which will be found in the precious metals space. My two favorites are EXK and AG, both trading 30% cheaper than where they should be trading.

There is an epic trade to be made and most of you are primarily looking for downside plays, ghastly beings that you are, sadly enough; you will be used as tinder for my summer fires. You’re all looking for overvalued social media stocks, distracted by the Facebook ipo and all of its grandiosity. Well, boy, let me tell you such a fool is easily separated from his coin, not so much different than snatching a gold necklace off the neck of a baby girl.

This is not a market call based on technicals, fundamentals or gut instinct. This is fact and should be treated as such. Sometime soon, you will look back on this post (link to it if you like), as one of the many scriptures that have been inked on iBankCoin, a living testament to what real trading is all about. It’s not about fear or greed, but conviction. Like my ancient ancestors, who lived and died by the sword, fighting battles, with axes and trebuchets, to protect or capture European castles in far away places–“The Fly” is here to defend what is right and just in the financial world.

The FAZmobile doesn’t have an adequate braking system and is heading towards a brick wall doing 225 miles per hour.

The old adage of “go away in May” is real. The ominous part of “go away in May” actually lies in the month of June, if I might point that out to you. As a point in fact, on average, May is a mixed month. Month to date, the SPY is down 5.56%, following a -0.67% showing for April. The last time we had a negative return in April was in 2005, when the SPY traded down 1.88%.

The last time stocks did this poorly in May was in 2010. The following Month, stocks tanked by another 5.17%, leading to a fierce reflex rally in July, gaining 6.83%.

Here are the SPY returns for June, dating back to 1993.

That’s right, the market has gone in June each of the past 5 years. More than that, the SPY hasn’t posted a +2% June since 1999. In short, don’t expect the market to come out with guns blazing to save the bulls from bear market misery. If we do have a great June, it will be an anomaly, statistical oddity. In other words, don’t position for it.

The trading action this month is the second worst performance in May, dating back to 1993.

If you look back in the data, seasonality stats provided inside The PPT, big down months of more than -5% usually follow up with another dismal trading month. The momentum to the downside may have just begun, unfortunately. Of course that doesn’t mean everything will trade down. As a matter of fact, deeply oversold stocks may bounce soon and hard. But, at a minimum, I reckon traders need to be cognizant of the “Seasonality Gods” and how it portends to trading against the odds.

The most likely scenario is a June washout, followed by a kick-ass July, just in time for this fat country’s birthday festivities–similar to what we saw in 2010.

I like to consider myself a “nice guy.” Aside from the fits of violence upon NY’s homeless and elderly population, I comport myself with extreme chivalry, during most venues. I am a family man, law abiding citizen, generous with friends and employees. Because of these things, I should feel entitled to some sort of boon, something in return for my better than average behavior on Earth.

Hell, I might imagine myself to be infallible and invest my money accordingly, since the world “owes me.”

Here’s the cold dose of realism.

There is no such thing as karma, chi or mystical being looking down on me, rewarding cookies for a job well done and bolts of lightening whenever I slap people with hot slices of pizza. It’s just me versus the world, in a giant rat race designed to kill me before the age of 80.

When it rains outside, it isn’t because you were acting like a real jerk. And when you got that promotion, it wasn’t because your charitable donations convinced the “karma Gods” that you were deserving.

The market is a bitch. It pushes and pushes until you capitulate, on both the long and short side. There’s a reason for that. Human emotions are not very complex and we all have a tipping point. For example, should you prod me with undesirable childhood nicknames– more than 5 times– the chances of me killing you rise exponentially. We’re all in a giant fish-tank, eating the same chum. Sometime soon, there will be a tipping point, either way up or way down.

Whichever way it goes, mind you, it will have nothing to do with your lack of deportment in public venues or the amount of money you donate to kids with cancer.

Hey everybody, this is Jeremy (iBC admin) filling in for Fly. As I’m sure you know, Mr. Le Fly is busy celebrating his birthday.

Anyway, the iBC game is coming along. I’ve hooked up some basic functionality on the front page of iBankCoin in the sidebar, detailing the $ (denominated in iBankCoin Reserve Notes) earned by everyone thus far (everyone that has signed up for an iBankCoin account and contributed posts/comments to the site since the announcement of the game, that is). The game is still in its infancy, but I would encourage people to start hoarding iBankCoin Reserve Notes immediately; as the game matures, you will find said notes to be indispensable in financing hostile takeovers against other players (yes, you will be able to victimize one another), purchase egregious in-game items — all sorts of fuckery. It should be quite the spectacle. At present you earn $ (iBC Reserve Notes) as follows:

+500 for a blog post
+100 for first comment on blog post
+25 for leaving a comment on a blog post
+$5 for each “thumbs up” to your comment
-$5 for each “thumbs down” to your comment
+$1 For each view of your post

(As an aside, iBankcoin crew get an addition $500 for each blog post, $250 for each news post. Also, there is an “arbitrary income” aspect whereby “The Fly” can impose fines for misconduct and “executive bonuses” at his discretion.)

One other thing to note is the hierarchy. It’s modeled after a typical investment banking totem pole, with MD on top, Sr. VPs below that, and trainees on the bottom. Naturally, the more money you have the higher up you are on the iBC totem pole. The “prisoner” section at the bottom is iBankCoin’s debtor prison, where those who have disgraced themselves are paraded as examples of great public shame.

Anyway, as always, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. The game is still in its infancy, so if you have an idea for the game (e.g., “I think players should be able to mug each other”) kindly let us know.

The market is acting stupid again. But I am not going to complain. As you know, today is my 36th birthday and I am running out of time on this here blog. The cut off age for reading iBankCoin is 47.5, so I need to enjoy the time I have left here.

I am not going to complain about how “stupid” the market is because markets are not stupid, just the people playing them. So, let’s think this through, shall we?

Is a Greek exit from the Euro imminent? Seriously, should we be worried about the election results in June and prepare for a real fucked up Mad Max scenario? Or, will the central banks, yet again, kick the can down the road. This distinction means everything.

Moreover, being that China’s growth has slowed dramatically (as intended by their policies), is the risk now betting against Chinese stimulus at a fresh high? Meaning: people have been shitting on China for years now. And, frankly, their growth has been less than impressive in recent months. Will the Chinese step in and cut rates and/or launch a stimulus missile?

If so, anything related to China will soar. Industrials and basic resource names should be accumulated now, in anticipation of that news.

I think everyone is too bearish. I also think too many people are expecting a full fledged rout of the euro. Whenever things seem obvious, shit happens and the once obvious becomes absurd, shortly after the fact.

For now, I am holding onto my longs and will be looking at basic resource names, anticipating the Chinese to step in one of these weekends with surprise clawhammers to the faces of those betting against it.

NOTE: With natural gas under $4, coal is in the “do not buy zone” thanks to displacement. I would not touch debt laden coal names until natty spikes.

Once again, the bears got mugged on a day when they were supposed to do the mugging. This afternoon, I was cornered at gunpoint, by a burlap’d bandit, then separated from my money and jewels. As the assailant made his way into the escape vehicle, about 3:30 pm, I flashed my Desert Eagle on him, took my shit back, and relieved him of his chain.

Basically, that’s what the market has been reduced to. Somebody is getting robbed on a daily basis. Damn straight it’s not gonna be me.

For the day, I was up another 0.6%, putting my year to date gains just under 5%.

Yes, today was bullish as fuck. My beard is thick and my demeanor bitter, one day before my birth date. Tomorrow will be the day the bears lose their Nike Air Jordans and goose down coats–a gift of sorts from the stock Gods to Senor Tropicana.

Watch it.

The rally died on the spot. Nothing is sticking, not even AAPL or silver. My life, as currently constructed, is imbued with curses. I get to play this game on a daily basis and throw fits of stark raving mad rage.

Now as I write this, naturally, the market is climbing back up. However, I am writing this to remind myself to NEVER, EVER, EVER enjoy trading stocks again. I must take a disdainful approach to this job, similar to Obama’s position towards promoting alternative energy. I will feign interest and let people think that I like stocks; but deep down, I will fucking hate them. I will subscribe to the Wall Street Journal, just to spit on it in the morning. I will draw mustaches on the faces of famous CEO’s and frame them to be placed on my office walls.

I will mock the mockers and kill the killers.

If you are a young man, looking to get into the field of professional money management, think again. Invest in stocks ONLY as an avocation. You are much better off becoming a sanitation worker or furniture delivery man, than fuck around with European debt crisis laden minefields.

Sadly, dicks will be cut off and the guillotines are chasing me. “The Fly” might have to get into his fucking space capsule and seek refuge in the milky way. There are people and interests who seek to destroy me. Aside from stocks, the House of Fly has been under continued assault, with intent of humbling. I’ve been defending my position with great fervor and with owlish wisdom. But the imperious forces against me are growing stronger and I am tiring through attrition.

It is my God given right to luxury and to project my thoughts in stentorian tones. The rakish demons who plague me shall understand the scale of my fondness and ardor for winship. Either I end up triumphant or 6 feet deep, resting inside of coffin shaped after a fucking pineapple.

NTAP is coming off its lows. I haven’t bought that stock in years; but fuck is that stock cheap now. At these levels, both IBM and ORCL will be looking at them, scratching chins and brains, contemplating a bid.

Europe is running with its shoes off. According to the textbook of BEAS, the market should follow through and rip ham off asses today. On a separate note, FB seems to have caught its footing. Unlike many gorillas in the blogosphere, I don’t mind owning FB here, at least for a trade. There was so much retail carnage in this fucker, I would not be surprised to see it trade back to $38. You know it’s gonna happen. Get on the “Zuck Truck.”

Gold and silver look great, as well as the social media sector. On the eyes of Ulysses, if YELP doesn’t take out $19 today, I am going to punch holes through the office sheetrock.

Slow things down for a minute. Greece can wait. We need to make some fucking money now.

UPDATE: THE FUCKING WINSHIP MACHINE HAS BEEN DELAYED, LIKELY CANCELED. FUCK MY LIFE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwky6LIL-_I

Naturally, the meeting resulted in a bunch of nothingness. Hollande wants eurobonds to finance future growth projects and Merkel, the German bitch, said nein. I am so sick of hearing the word “GREXIT”. It’s a fucking smug thing to say and reeks of schadenfreude. If you find pleasure in seeing the pain of others, you are undoubtedly without top hat. I’m no longer interested in problems; but keenly looking for solutions.

Post summit, futures are barely changed and Asia is flat. This is very encouraging. Make no mistake, today’s reversal was epic in nature and could lead to a string of up days. On the flavour of delicious caspian tiger entrees, God knows I need it.

Into an upswing, I am zoned in on silver. According to The PPT, both EXK and AG correlate best to an oversold market. Hence, I am long in size. However, they are just trades and I will kick them out for 10% gains whenever they reach desired levels.

Also, the dollar is flagging OB, always an accurate flag by the 12 mo algorithm.

What goes up when the dollar comes down?

Answer: everything.

Hypothetically, let’s say the record amount of dodo birds shorting the euro get caught flat-footed in a bull stampede, based upon a surprise Chinese rate cut or some rumors of euro-bonds, how do you think commodity related stocks will respond to a 5% move higher in the euro?

Answer: they will rip the fucking faces off everyone who is balls to the wall short.

Please humor me and have a look at some commodity related stocks, that have been bashed to pieces over the past month–with industry leading ROE ratios.

On the ankles of Achilles, I will accumulate monstrous positions in one or two of those names, providing the rally gets legs. I intend to swap out of my precious metals, the rest of my old man stocks and liquidate one or two tech names to buy the blood. Not only will I buy the blood, I will drink and bathe in it. I will congeal it to be used as candles inside of my fucking castle.

Part of my strength is the ability to surround myself with intelligent people. For those of you living in 0hio, regrettably, that is an impossibility. However, living in the financial capital of the world, I get to meet some smart people–people who know things.

I met “The Devil” a long time ago, many, many moons. He gave us some ideas and they all panned out, exactly as he said they would. His win rate became so absurd, so incredulous, I nicknamed him “The Devil.” I had no reason to believe he was not “The Devil”; hence, the nicknamed stuck.

During the course of today’s trading session, “The Devil” and I were bouncing text messages back and forth.

Have a look.

Now his name is revealed!

In case you didn’t notice, the Dow closed 6.66 points lower today.

In short, we’re going the fuck higher people. Get your space helmets ready.