INFLATION WATCH: RUSSIA CANCELS UKRAINIAN GRAIN DEAL AFTER BLACK SEA ATTACKS: THE CORRIDOR IS NOW CLOSED

42% of Ukraine’s exports are grain related. They are the “bread basket” of Europe. A few months ago Russia agreed to open a “grain corridor” to Turkey so Ukraine could export their grain. Due to a series of underwater drone attacks in the Black Sea, Russia has canceled the agreement and blames the Uk for facilitating the attack.

Full statement:

FULL RUSSIAN STATEMENT pic.twitter.com/T1uC7sy5s7

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 29, 2022

This development will undoubtedly cause inflation to rise in Europe, as the price of food rises due to lack of grain supply.

I’d also like to remind people of the returns for the NASDAQ over a number of time periods.

Do stocks deserve to be +42% from 2019 levels?

The NASDAQ is down 14% over the past 6 months. I’m in fact only up 3% over the same time frame. My bias has been to be short, but I’ve also hedged myself almost every day because of rallies like Friday.  In October alone we’ve had 7 rallies of 2% or greater. Is that the behavior of a bear market? No. But we are in one, without a doubt.

We were up 12% in July and people thought the market bottomed. Then we sunk 15% from August through September and now we are up 5% for October. How confident are you that stocks will continue heading higher into peak shopping season? Will consumers steam out in droves to stockpile on the latest tech gadgets amidst this economic backdrop? Conversely, if you’re short stocks, how comfortable are you shorting into the hole with bell weather stocks down 50-80% YTD?

For all those disappointed that I’ve had muted returns the past 6 mos, fuck off. This has been a very hard market to navigate and my responsibility isn’t to be the organ grinder’s monkey but to preserve and methodically grow my 50% YTD returns. My breakouts usually happens in wild streaks and I always temper myself after achieving success. In 2021, my returns were +218%. But look at the monthly distribution.

I started 2021 at $150k, rose to $450k by May 1 and then traded around that level through year end, finishing at $492k.

In January of 2022, I dipped to $440k because I was wrong. That was my bottom and I busted loose in February, rising to $633k by April 1 and  have methodically traded higher since then — closing Friday at $737k.

I can comfortably assume my returns are in the top quartile of all traders/money managers on the planet the past decade plus. If I’m so good and telling you this is a hard tape, this is a fucking hard tape.

Stop complaining.

It’s all very tiresome to whore myself to idealogies each and every day — “starting anew” in order to trade the market in front of me. I have decided to actually toss that away for a while in favor of obstinate hard headed permanent bear status. Each rally will be met with my insults. Every uptick I will spit at the screen in disgust. There will never be adequate conditions to reach my comfort or pleasure — so I might as well prepare for the long haul ride to zero.

Saying this out loud is refreshing! Whilst I am prone to change my mind at a flip of a dime, I’m fairly certain inside my heart, if you opened it, you’d learned of such a deep and profound hatred for bulls — you might want to have me incarcerated for fear I might lash out one day and kill them all.

I ended the session DOWN 79bps, 154% leveraged with large SQQQ, SOXS and LABD holdings. I intend to martingale them and buy them into profit. If you forced a pistol upon me head right now and demanded a prediction for Monday, I’d say down and with vigor.

My positioning is purposeful — heavy long allocations to recession proof names paired with fuck your tech and biotech stocks all the way down into a grave.

For the week, I managed a slight gain and I feeeeeel pretty good about my 3.2% monthly gain into the final day of trade come Monday. I am fairly certain I’ll squeeze out another 1% and only underperform the market by 50%. This is acceptable to me because I was wrong on the markets direction and have still managed a gain. When the conditions are finally right for me to strike, I will do with with great speed and alacrity — forcing surrender of all the bulls but they shall not receive safe quarter with me — only the black flag.

Have a great weekend and lets hope for a limit down open come Halloween.

The Dow is +800, NASDAQ +250 based on a squeeze in shares of Apple, Intel and resurgence in Amazon. Seeing these tech names plunge and reverse is all the PERMANENT BULL class of investor needed to margin out their accounts and sop up everything their greedy hands could get hold of. Thus far for the month of October we have seen numerous 2% rallies and on the whole it’s been an exciting month for longs, up nearly 10% with one day remaining of trade. The notion we could collapse in November like we did in September is distant and remote, based upon recent history.

The fact that the earnings season has been so bad is the reason why stocks are rallying. In a deep perverted distortion of reality, bulls believe the weaker we are the more likely the Fed will PAUSE. The permanent bull wants to front run the pivot — because the pivot, whenever it does happen, is their religion.

After the dust settles and markets absorb the pivot news, we will be stuck with a shitty economy and nothing the Fed can do to help it. QE is not gonna happen — not with CPI elevated above 5%. We are only in the beginning stages of the economic decline, brought on by the FOMC hikes.

In the near term, I have no doubt markets will attempt to jimmy higher. The bulls are everywhere and they’re hard to stop, always out and about talking shit — sucking Cadaver Biden’s cock and boasting about their bulging positions in 3x upside ETFs.

As for me, I once again DID NOT participate in this grandiose orgy of American exceptionalism and have been out all day long, hedged with SOXS, SQQQ and LABD — whose losses have placed me down 50bps for the session.

Last night main stream neo liberal media revealed thru unnamed sources that Kanye West was in fact secretly in love with Hitler and nearly named one of his albums after the infamous dictator. On that news, Elon Musk unbanned Kanye West’s twitter account.

Also, the shitlibs are stroking out this morning over “The Joker taking over Arkham Asylum and freeing all of the supervillains into society.” The employees at twitter are all pleading for their jobs, or fleeing to Google and Apple, reminding Musk they “worked hard” on the app and “deserve dignity.” Whilst that might be true, it’s also important to remember Twitter is a private company Sir and the owner can do as he likes with it.

Thus far, Musk has terminated all top execs at the company and has said he intends to fire 75% of the political activists working at the company.

Last night Apple, Amazon, and Intel reported abysmal earnings. On that news, investors are sopping them up with relentless bids.

I remain hedged, long stocks near 52 week highs, higher by 20bps. This is the second to last day of the month for traders. Prepare for chicanery.

The stock is down 20% after missing and guiding the fuck lower. The details are unimportant, as you can get that shit elsewhere. What is important is a MAJOR warning out of INTC, AMZN, META, GOOGL and even other formally great names like MPWR.

How many times do I need to remind you that it’s over?

Because I am a hero in America, I sold the fuck short via TZA, SOXS, SQQQ into the bell. My hopes and dreams are coming true in the after-hours, as I intend to destroy America in order to save her. The earnings reports you are seeing now is JUST THE BEGINNING, as things will unravel from here and so on and so forth, paving the way to a collapse in consumer confidence and subsequent job losses. Once we see 1 million job losses per mo, the Fed will pause. Faggots on the long side will roll in and get rolled over, as the narrative will immediately shift from sucking Fed cock to the dissolution of the Unites States and its financial hegemony.

At some point, we will need to prepare for a dollar collapse. Until then, we will sell these stocks down via shorts, hedged with longs showing good relative strength, methodically, but absolutely, profiting from the destruction of the stock exchange.

We have recently enjoyed respite via weakening dollar and yields. Because of this, markets have resumed a bullish tone. However serious you might be about the idea of diving back into a bull moded market now, I’d like to entreat you with some information.

The “most important” sector has always been tech and those catamites have been knifed down. Month to date, the vast majority of gains have been in energy.

As an industry, oil and gas is +29% for the month. Think about it for a second.

Meanwhile, earnings reports have been abysmal.

On a side note, it appears the absolute faggots out of PayPal re-instated their $2500 fine for bad speech.

Just an FYI @PayPal put the $2,500 fine back into its terms of service as soon as the outcry died down.

Please retweet to raise awareness. Maybe this was just another accident. ? #DeletePayPal pic.twitter.com/lv3SBZuy04

— The Gay Republican (@GayRepublicSwag) October 26, 2022

I used to think it was only the elites who were scum. But I was wrong. Half the country proved during COVID they were of a monstrous quality. Perhaps they’re just NPCs — but as a people America has become a denizen for evil and now we are subsuming freedoms in exchange for a comical approach for “preserving democracy.” We don’t live in a democracy or a republic. This is an autocratic oligarchy controlled by some people for the purposes of a “rules based order” global empire and you and your family are nothing more than cattle to be used in their wars, both foreign and domestic.

We will be removing the PayPal option from Stocklabs. I might not be able to build my own global banking empire, but I certainly don’t have to use PayPal to do business.

What people deserve and what they get are two different things. Look at me, nice man, always blogging, tweeting a storm bringing good news to the people: I should be up 5% every day. Yet, here I am up another 35bps, notably not fooled again.

Last night whilst you slept, Credit Suisse shit the bed. The stock is down 15% and META is down 23%. These two disasters “should’ve” equated to a rout in stocks, especially since we’ve been rallying. Yet, here we are +264 Dow, -145 NASDAQ and FAZ (triple short banks) is -3.7%.

See, there is deserve and what you get. Don’t confuse the two because in the end — everyone gets what they really deserve based upon merit. The market doesn’t give a shit if you’re white or black — it’ll punish you equally and without remorse if you’re wrong.

I’m at 83% cash, content to take it slow into month end. These are old habits I have since the days when I managed other people’s money. The calendar, per se, should’ve mean a damn thing to me now — but it gives me structure and a definable goal. I am +4% for the month and it’s not a banner month, but noteworthy in the fact that I have been bearish as fuck and still managed a gain, albeit one HALF what was enjoyed in the SPY.

Shares of META immediately popped by 9% based off the headline number of BETTER THAN EXPECTED results. Inside 15 seconds flat, all chasoors were summarily executed as the headlines darkened and longs looked on with furrowed brows as Mark Zucked Face issued an earnings warning.

Shares are now off by 7%.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The economy is in the shitter and the Fed cannot help. This is 2001 but instead of the specter of easing — you sons a bitches get another 300bps of hikes over the next 12 — which will without a doubt send the economy seaworthy into a depression.

But go ahead and keep buying dips you fucking faggots.

I booked +30bps in gains in trading, Quant +80bps, YOLO +10.5%.

Who will stop me?

It was all so simple at the open of trade for the bastard bulls. They bought the dip, was instantly rewarded, and then went to get their dicks sucked by their boyfriends. Upon returning, ruins presided over their portfolios — as high beta piece of shit names are 4% OFF the fucking highs. Tumult and tragedy beckon as you eat bacon, with haste.

NEVERTHELESS, I am not stupid and know the dick suckers will try it again. They’ll take their “VOTE DEM, GET A FREE ABORTION” pins off and get their greasy hands dirty, leveraging into any decline — MAX OUT LONG ONLY — because Pax Americana and Cadaver Biden’s iced cream portraits are worth cherishing.

Meanwhile, my YOLO account is +10%, Quant +1.3%, and trading a genteel +35bps.

It should confuse you because you’re preconditioned to always believe in the green light across the bay — yesterday’s hopes and dreams renewed fresh for you. But the past is over and the future is grim and dark and malevolent — all good reasons to get the fuck in there and sop up some FUBO before the other catamites get the idea of rallying into the close.

So simple even a fucking moron can do it. MAXXED LONGS are feeling their oats right about now, as markets rise in the face of unimaginably horrible news. I cleared out my trading this morning, for a minor gain of +22bps. I had expected a loss of 1-2% based upon the piece of shit stocks I had in there. I was helped by an 8% position in SQQQ, which I bought in the after-hours and sold first thing the market opened.

My PERMANENT BOOL Quant account is +230bps and my YOLO account is +8.2%, due to a MAXXED long SQQQ and then quick trade in TNA this morning.

Bottom line can be best explained in the shares of TARK, which is 3x ARKK — which was +13% yesterday and +8.5% today.

Also, cryptos are rallying. Interestingly enough, according to Stocklabs seasonality, October is the best month to own BTC.

OCTOBER HAS BEEN BEST MONTH TO OWN $BTC
Via @stocklabsapp pic.twitter.com/zdAnX9c8zR

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 26, 2022

The other issue pertains to crude stocks, now at 40 year lows.

US OIL RESERVES AT 40 YR LOWS pic.twitter.com/ojw4gtlH9I

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 26, 2022

This is important because the Biden ass-clowns are releasing our reserves on a daily basis for the explicit concern of rigging prices lower. Whilst one might argue this is a good thing to suppress the price of crude due to the inflation issue. On the other hand, one might also say its reckless to do this at a time of world war pending. One might also presume by releasing the SPR into the market with the intent of having to buy it back — you might risk a nightmare scenario of NO RESERVES and forced to buy it all back with prices above $200 into your fucking face and much much more and beyond.