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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Just What Sort of Stupid Market is This?

The celebratory hang over of another all time high is in full effect this morning. After all, the stock market has never been better. All of the bad news is good and the good news is great. There isn’t any great news–but that’s okay. The Federal Reserve, and more importantly, the savage swine out of the ECB, have been busy making sure social disorder doesn’t become a reality.  All of you beer swillers and sockdolagers of this era of unprecedented decadence have left the upper middle class in a state of permanent bohemia, hipsters with an indelible appetite for perversion.

All the while, the internals of the market speak to another truth.

Over the past quarter, 131 stocks were up 30% or more, while 172 were down more than 30%. When you lower the threshold, the results are even more damning. Two hundred and fifty eight stocks, god damn it, were up more than 20% over the past quarter, while a mind numbing 433 were down 20% or more.

For the average Joe, the guy eating donuts out of a greasy paper bag, this is detrimental–yet harmonious to the algorithmic based demons who man the trading turrets at Goldman Sachs.

Ove the past six months, The PPT oversold signal has proven to be right 6 out of 7 times for an average return of 1.35%. The overbought signal has been even more impressive, with the market going down 5 out of 5 occurrences for an average market loss of 0.86%.

Without question, we are in a period of hidden volatility, all the while that stupid garish VXX instrument, which was created inside of Darwin’s seventh level of hell, is at new lows. It’s a stock pickers market and I intend to take an ax to the faces of anyone who gets in my way.

The drifters and the wastrels have been dispatched over the past 3 months and come here to my blog to vent frustration. Back in April, when I displayed a certain air of mortality, these parasitic roads slobs left countless messages, which spelled out foreboding doom and an ending to the era known as Fly. You sold my bottom and now I am dancing atop your skinless skulls.

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RATES ARE GOING TO 0%, YAH

Yields raced lower today, as high valuation stocks took right hooks to the ribs. Over 370 stocks dropped by more than 3%, otherwise known as distribution. I did not, however, escape unscathed–losing 0.2% for the day–miserable for being long SOL, ARWR and a myriad of other momentum names.

TLT is King now. All other securities are simply inferior.

Have a great weekend.

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Avoid the Clown Show

As of this second, just 28% of stocks are heading higher. You might feel lucky in your little birds nest because you happen to have one of those stocks. But you haven’t thought it through. You haven’t thought about your mother and her two stupid sisters who are getting their eyebrows kicked off today, as more than 310 stocks decline more than 3% for the session.

Every action has a reaction. Wait it out. Go bird watching and buy your wife a bouquet of flowers. Quit being such a bedraggled microbe.

Utilities and REITs are the biggest winners today. Don’t play yourself, homie. Go eat a sandwich.

 

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Classic Comedy Clown Show

I’m a little upset at myself for falling for the old huckle buck the other day, buying SOL ahead of BABA. It was as clear as the day was long: this bastard IPO was going to suck every single last penny out of the market, then kick it down a flight of stairs. Mind you, I knew about this well in advance, all the way back in April. Meticulously, I positioned myself in a myriad of utilities and made TLT my largest and boldest position in years. Thus far, everything I planned for came true, with two minor distractions.

I bought ARWR and SOL ahead of BABA, as a way to drink the Koolaid with all of the cool kids roaming the exchange halls. It wasn’t desirable to be long just bonds and electricity companies and it was hard for me to get a date for prom night.

Nevertheless, I will manage my way out. I always do. Now that I am down 10% in SOL, I will either sell it or double down. I’d rather do nothing today.

For the remainder of the day, I’d rather watch as the prophecy reveals itself to be true and all of the clowns in all of the clown vans fall perilously off the side of the mountain.

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Reflecting on my True Calling

I should’ve been an assassin or vigilante, instead of this stock shit. At this point in my life, I cannot go around killing people because I have a family to raise. I am hoping by the time they are on their own, I’ll be able to pursue my true passion, which is afflicting harm onto others.

The innocents will not be touched, mind you. I’d simply go about my days tracking down child abusers, puppy killers and people who I find to be vulgar. You know the guy on the highway who cuts you off, just for the sake of doing it? I’d kill him too.

Overall, the upward surge of humanity shall continue–because there are more of us than there are of them. If, for example, the world were to be controlled by ISIS and people of their ilk, well then, I think it’s fair to say society would devolve into chaos and we’d roll back thousands of years of progress. The romans were more advanced than most of the ‘warriors’ who live in that part of the world.

Whether you like it or not, people, the barbarians are at the gate. Look around you. All you need is a spark for the primates to go ape shit and then they’ll be barging in on you while you’re eating supper, asking where the ladies are located for expeditious raping.

Wall street is an especially vulgar place to work, which is why I don’t work there anymore. I used to travel in and work in a nice big fancy building, bark at my sales assistants and give 50% of my income away to some loser in a three piece suit. Now I do my own thing, and often work from my home office, which lends a certain convenience to this harsh and terrible business.

This is a business of circumstance, skill and chance. Hard work is always something to toss out there, as a badge of honor for others to respect. But don’t throw that shit onto my desk. I’ll kill you for it, literally. If you’re gonna trade for a living, ‘hard work’ is a pre-requisite. Just because you spent 100 hours trying to build a house– that doesn’t mean said house is going to be built right. Do you know what I’m saying?

You have to be smart and ruthless to succeed here. The losses are part of the course and your wives are obstacles in your way to grandeur.

Never forget that and always remember that the only difference between the guy driving the lambo and your sorry hyundai driving ass is time, and a whole lot of circumstance–if you know what I mean.

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Hello, I Am Jack Ma and I am Here to Take Your Money

This is it. The moment of truth has arrived. All of the conspiracies will be revealed next week, after tomorrow’s gigantic initial public offering of BABA.

After the last two big tech ipos, FB and TWTR, the market sold off–shortly thereafter. But this time investment banks aren’t scamming the public  like they were with FB. Auto mechanics and school teachers will not be getting their fair share of the BABA ipo. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the market absorbs this gigantic sponge.

My position is the same now as it has been for the past 2 1/2 weeks, only with more cash–thanks to the iFON sale.  My largest holding is TLT, followed by ETR, EXC and GAS. Newly minted holding SOL is up there, and of course long term holds like GILD, SLCA and LITB are left untouched.

If my suspicious suspicions are correct, we trade down after tomorrow’s big showing, leaving investors scorched dead like cats on power lines. In the event that I am wrong and the party continues, I will average down in SOL, which always seems to do well during market fiestas.

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The Problem with Scotland is that it’s Full of Scots

Seriously, I’ve always wanted to use that headline. A thousand years could pass and I’d never get the chance to discuss Scotland, so pardon my zeal.

I don’t know what to think about Scotland, frankly. Perhaps England may have to enact and olde ancient tradition, Primae Noctis, to set those drunkards straight. Either way, it pleases me to know that the ghost of King Longshanks is probably pissed off right now.

Stocks look strong ahead of the biggest ipo known to mankind, BABA. Both SFTBF and YHOO own large pieces of it. So if you want to play the hype, before the ipo, just buy those stocks. Then again, maybe people sell the news? All I know is this: LITB is cheaper than balls–because they are balls. I’m looking for a pop to $10.

Yes, I am still long TLT and utilities. Let’s examine this for a moment. I am flat to down 2% in my utilities and after two months of dividend payments, I am down about 3.5% in TLT. I piss on -3.5%, hardly an onerous price to pay for a hedge. The whole point of these positions is to protect against the inevitable destruction of the planet called earth. Now that I see it won’t happen, although I am reticent to think boolish ahead of BABA, I can start repositioning for upside. The opportunity afforded to me by the IFON spike and my subsequent sale leaves me in a very liquid situation, young chap.

You’d be wise to not bet against me, ever again.

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There Are Limits to My Depravity

After selling out the bulk of my IFON position north of $3.55, I felt it would be ridiculous to do anything else. Instead of worrying about stocks and where they might be going, I permitted my treasuries and utilities to bleed out a little more, if only for the sake of sacrifice. One cannot accomplish too many feats of genius inside of a day. Therefore, and I am emboldened to say this: “The Fly won again, even though you wrote him off for dead.”

I will reserve my market positioning and how I might play this tape for tomorrow.

Just a quick note on the iBankCoin Investors Conference:

Hotel discounts are available, at 45% less than current rates. If you’re going, you need to contact Jeff and let him know you would like to stay at the Encore. Lastly, BEHOLD:

[youtube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61LS3X0nZLY 603 500]

https://ibankcoin.com/investors-conference/

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GET IT THROUGH YOUR THICK SKULLS: RATES ARE NEVER GOING UP

All of the media and all of the morons who blog are shocked and amazed that the Fed didn’t change their language, in reference to when they will raise rates.

Listen to me, boy: The United Steaks of America has nearly 20 trillion dollars in debt. They prefer to borrow at dirt cheap rates–fuck you very much.

This news is bullish for both stocks and bonds.

Although Yellen sounds like a female version of Woody Allen, she is doing exactly what she needs to do here to keep the party going.

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