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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

IT IS TIME

The near term top has been seen. Go now child,  it is time to head back down the other side of the mountain.

These words were uttered to me by the shadows inside of my urinal.

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All the King’s Burritos and All the King’s Biotech Hand Grenades Are Out to Get Me

Nothing can stop this perverted market from going higher, not even lunacy. I sold CMGE TEN POINTS LOWER and all of the burritos and all of the biotech hand grenades that looked weak last week are rifling higher.

How long do I seat myself atop this wall, waiting for the shoe to drop?

Well, it’s only September 8th and there is a lot of time left in the month for surprise sex. Naturally of course there is the idea that waiting for disaster, instead of playing it, is entirely a waste of time. I might as well day trade internet stocks, or sell everything, and be done with it–if I am not man enough to sell something short, no?

But you’d be wrong about that, since I’m only cautious with my trading dollars. I still own egregious amounts of stock. I know, I know, I know, it doesn’t matter and I cannot have it both ways.

I’ll tell you what. If this market is still spinning higher 5 days after the BABA ipo, I will sell my utilities, treasuries and invest my cash. It’s as simple as that. I’m not losing money on my defensive positions. Well, maybe today I am; but overall, I am not.

Let me remind you that this sort of perversion, wanton disrespect for the laws of mathematics, is not only immoral, but indicative of a market overheating. Yes, WDAY is a great company–but not for 31x sales (drops mic, walks off stage).

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FALL BACK SON

We’re diligently working on the first annual iBankCoin conference. It appears the date of 11/8 meshes for all parties involved. I am sure many of you will seek me out, trying to attack or kill me. But just know this: I will be shadowed at all times by my security apparatus and will poison your cocktails with cyanide if I deem you to be a threat. To top off the event, which will occur during a premium date (saturday) in Vegas, I am hoping to do something special for VIP sign ups. I intend to spend most of the additional monies raised on said gathering, in order to make sure that it is done in the manner by which this site conducts itself.

As for the markets: BRACE YOURSELVES for lower prices. The Option Addict and I are on opposite sides of the equation here. He’s a much better short term trader than I am. Frankly, I’ve never seen anyone in all of my years who could hold a candle to him. Nevertheless, I reckon he will be wrong this go around. Do not start feeling bad for the lad, just yet, as I’m sure the gazillion dollars he’s made in the market this year will sustain him during the dry months of September and October.

I want to be long utilities, treasuries and cash.

However, longer term, I still own 31 stocks, such as YELP, MU, HAIN, JAZZ, SGEN, GOGO etc.

A dip is coming. I can feel the warm breeze, from a volcanic eruption, across my chest passing by—as I survey the field. If you stay too long, you will be burned.

Warnings have been made. Do not say that I didn’t try to help.

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Waiting in the Tall Grass

[youtube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAHL5oPXOD0 603 500]

It isn’t all that bad, tucked away in dividend paying utilities and treasuries while the zebra runs about the prairie in search of sustenance and play.

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I HAVE $GAS

With some of my cash, I added to my boring utility holdings, buying GAS here.

When I release said GAS from my possession, I intend to make waves with it.

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EVERYTHING IS AWESOME

The market is certainly proving me wrong, defying the ominous twists and turns that is september. But can one be truly secure in his/her holdings over this ordinarily long, treacherous, weekend? For all we know, General Stalingrad Putin will invade Poland and annex Eastern Germany.

Everything is awesome. Stocks are flying in the face of abysmal data. It’s laughable, really. The ordinary folk, the third estate, the zebra, have no idea that Wall Street shits on them, rather poetically, on a daily basis.

Bad news is good news and good news is even better news.

As a member of what I consider to be a unique group of intelligent life forms, I have to believe all of this nonsense will come to pass one day, no? Then again, I’m just going through a risk off phase, so don’t mind me. We’ve seen this story play out for the past 5 years and it always ends the same.

Bears in a bodybag, with a bull dancing atop of it, drinking jugs of ambrosia, high off of life.

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The Takeaway From This Morning’s Pathetic Jobs Report

People are buying this pathetic, languid, number. Do you know why they are doing so? It is because we are programmed to enjoy the bid that the Federal Reserve provides us with. Understand something, with nearly $20 trillion in national debt, the United Steaks of America cannot possibly allow its interest rates to head higher, while looking at you with a straight face, saying “we’re not trying to purposely default on our obligations.”

I appreciate the candor of the billionaire hedge fund manager, who operates out of the Short Hills shopping mall, who told us to sell short treasuries yesterday. He has a mighty fine track record and I could only hope to enjoy 1/10th of his success over the course of my lifetime. But he’s fooling himself, or you, with the idea that rates are done going lower.

A great man, who once walked the halls of iBankCoin and screamed at you from his office every morning, once said “we are Japan.” That we are my friends and I’m not bearish on stocks because of it. I am simply hesitant in the month of September. Call it superstition or “gut instinct”; but I want no part in this phase of debauchery. I’d rather just sit here and watch you have all the fun, while I think of ways to entertain myself.

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Looking For Value

There are a lot of names that are down 30% over the past 6 months. However, those stupid bastards are still trading 17x sales. How in the world do you expect me to buy that?

Using the robust screener inside of The PPT, I’ve been scouring for stocks that I can purchase–after the coming decline. A few names that aren’t on the list, but will always be purchased by me on dips are:

YELP

SLCA

JAZZ

All in different sectors, those three names represent the main drivers of this market, the things I am bullish on–long term.

Social Media

Oil & Gas

Biotech

The problem with my favorite stocks, all of which I still own, is that they’re near new highs.

But here are some stocks that have been crushed and represent true value. Keep in mind, more often than not, stocks trade lower because fundies suck. So what appears to be value may in fact be a trap. Alas, the perils of speculation.

POST (WTF!, people hate cereal)

SINA

YOKU

SOHU (who knows  if these burritos are worth anything?)

FUEL

CREE

SALE

CBI

WFM

SFM

If you have any ‘cheap’ stocks, post them in the comments.

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AMAZINGBALLS

I hope you appreciate the concept of negative rates in Europe. This is a continent struggling to employ and produce, using draconian methods to encourage growth–5 years removed from the Great Recession. Here in the states, we are winding down QE operations–but still have zero percent rates, which has not really buoyed new homes sales in any large degree. The desirable areas are in demand and Detroit is still Detroit.

Can the market go higher without a Fed intervening? More importantly, if the economy is still struggling now at 0% rates, can we seriously raise them?

To the latter, I say no, positively. The only reason why you’d raise rates is to stoke another market crash.

I’m not as bearish as this article makes me sound. I am simply asking some serious questions that will one day need to be answered. Until that day of reckoning comes, we have this–the never-ending melt up. Pullbacks are always met with buyers and short sellers remain, indefatigably,  in the ‘fag box.’

Top picks: ETR, EXC, TLT and cash.

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Back to School

Today was the first day of school in New Jersey. I went to the morning ceremonies and then took my wife to breakfast, to celebrate in advance another long, arduous, year of making sure our children do not grow up to be idiots. Truth be told, school is an excellent day care centre and I am grateful for the tranquility around the house when they are being educated.

For me, the summer is over. It’s time to get back to work.

Draghi is the new Bernanke. As we end QE, Europe begins. This isn’t a coincidence and the euro has been sliding because of it. The dollar has been on a rocketship and our yields are at record lows. The US dollar is up almost 1% today. This is the macro trade that every Tom, Dick and Harry are piling into now. It’d be interesting to see how much profit taking in TLT can persist, while UUP heads higher. My guess, our bonds will be sopped up soon.

America is the place to be–the venue of choice for money managers. We have the safest currency, best technology and strongest military, next to the feared beards of ISIS of course.

Again, and I hate to bore you with my boredom, but I need at least two more weeks to see if my topping prediction will be correct. It’s very early September and the market is making new highs. Thus far, there is nothing but blue skies ahead.

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