Here Are 2016’s Winners and Losers, Thus Far

What a scandalous month, one that will live in infamy for eternity (extra drama club). For the site, traffic boomed, as persons of quality searched for expert opinions and to find news–pertaining to the commodity collapse of 2016. As for investors: they had their face knocked about–unless of course you were listening to me and heeded my most dire predictions of wanton cataclysm.

Here is some useful information, regarding the winners and losers of 2016.

Winners

Small Cap (-8.65% as a group)

SDPI +122%
SGOC +116%
HMY +91%
DRD +74%
BITI +72%

Mid Cap (-6.5% as a group)

SBGL +45%
AFFX +39%
WX +36%
OLLI +31%
BURL +25%

Large Cap (-5.1% as a group)

HCC +47%
FSL +45%
ABX +35%
AR +25%
AU +19%

Mega Cap (over $50 bill in cap) (-3.9% as a group)

DCM +10%
VZ +9.3%
TWX +8.8%
WMT +8.2%
RAI +8.2%

Losers

Small cap

ISH -88%
TKMR -70%
SRPT -69%
EGLE -62%
EGL -58%

Mid Cap

ALKS -59%
RARE -49%
HALO -49%
RDUS -47%
PBYI -46%

Large Cap

ETE -37%
MBLY -36%
INCY -35%
MDVN -32%
FCX -32%

Mega Cap

LFC -24%
AXP -22%
CX -19%
MTU -18.5%
GILD -18%

Top/Bottom performing ETFs

LABD +131%
BIS +53%
UVXY +36%
YANG +35%
FAZ +25%

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LABU -66%
BIB -39%
UWTI -37%
CHAU -36%
GASL -36%

Top/Bottom performing industries

Water utilities +7.9%
Gas utilities +6%
Foreign utilities +4%
Diversified utilities +4%
Gold +3%

————————————

Biotech -25%
Auto dealerships -25%
Shipping -23%
Diagnostic substances -20%
Drug delivery -19%

Performance by Sectors

Basic Materials -9.4%
Consumer Goods -5%
Financial -7%
Healthcare -11%
Industrial goods -7.2%
Services -6.3%
Technology -7.5%
Utilities +3.9%

Most Heavily Traded

BAC -16%
MSFT -0.7%
AAPL -7.7%
FB +7.2%
GE -6.5%

Raw Commodities

Gold +5.4%
Silver +3%
Corn +2%
Cattle +1.7%
Soybeans +0.5%

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Sugar -15%
Cocoa -15%
Gasoline -13%
Oil -12%
Palladium -11%

Rocky III is my favorite Wall Street movie. It’s a tale about a guy who’s living high off the hog–rich hedge fund manager–ranked #1 by CNBC and Forbes magazine. He made his money during the great bull run, picking up stocks that moved with the market. Even though he came up from nothing, the success he enjoyed, while on top, led him to believe he was a genius–when in fact it was the market doing the heavy lifting for him.

His top analyst, an older gent, named Mickey, knew otherwise.

Mickey tried to warn Rocky of the coming bear market; but Rock wouldn’t listen. When preparing for it, Rock would listen to happy music, invite a bunch of friends and media over to watch him study–and generally take it easy. This drove Mick nuts, as he knew what the bear market meant and how it would affect Rocky’s flagship fund.

I won’t ruin this movie for you by giving away too much. But let’s just say, the bear market came, killed Mickey, utterly destroyed Rocky’s bullshit bull market portfolio, and forced Rock to rethink the very essence of who he was–get back to his roots by hiring an old retired hedge fund manager, who was once his greatest competition, to be his new analyst, and generally reexamine his entire approach to investing.

The bear market was hard and strong and didn’t give a shit about anyone. It just knocked shit down, took no prisoners, whirl-winning through the market place.

Here’s a clip of Rocky getting destroyed by the bear market

Closing out a week of crazy tumult, let’s check in with the great iced cube marinator himself–Arthur Cashin.

He thinks this is a short covering rally–but it may have legs.

Not a fan of Japanese negative rates, saying ‘it won’t end prettily’.

Said one day, someone will go too far and “the currencies will go.”

Maybe I should buy some bitcoins.

It was a solid day of short covering, on better than normal volume. Text books say we run another 2-3% before settling back in and down for a retest. Bear in mind, the currency wars aren’t done. As you enjoy the fruits of Fairy Stock Father’s labor and lavish yourselves with exorbitant gifts of degeneracy, remember the pain you felt last week–as your mind raced for ways to explain to your wife the sheer stupidity of your investment plan.

As for me, I wish I still had my 200% long SPY position. But a plan is a plan, and my sales are scheduled, etched in ancient tablets made from granite. I still have some exposure to SPY, 33% long with an additional 25% in TLT–which has done nothing but go higher. I will be selling the balance of my SPY position, as detailed in Exodus, on February 2nd.

FYI: The iBC online Boot Camp is right around the corner. Sign up now, before it’s too late!

For the third year in a row, January is ending up a loser for stocks. The severity of this decline hasn’t been enjoyed by market players since the balling out days, when the lights were about to get turned off at the Treasury, of 2009. Those were grim days, indeed. So what’s next?

Naturally, history doesn’t always repeat itself, but often rhymes. With that in mind, it appears, either way we slice it, we’re entirely fucked for the month of February. Look at those 2008-2009 declines, boy (extra Raul).

data provided by Exodus

Or, maybe we relive the wonder year of 2014, a time and place when I had my single largest draw down ever, during the month of March.

Bottom line: I hope you’re enjoying the respite and have a mind about you to avoid diving into pools of hardened concrete.

Breadth is acceptable at 81%. There is broad participation in this rally. It has the feeling of pent up frustration being released out into the world. This is an angry move higher, designed to inflict damage to shorts.

Taking a look at the NASDAQ, clearly today’s move doesn’t even put a dent in the magnitude of the decline we’ve just had.

If this is a bear market, rallies are a natural occurence–but they’re always short lived. We moved from 5,100 to 4,400, a total loss of 700 NASDAQS. I can see this rally getting us back up to 4,750–before heading back south again.

Remember, we always retest, not matter what. That 4,400 mark will be tested again, trust in that.

In the interim, we have a stock and bond rally going at the same time. Talk about twighlight zone. I’ll take it, since I am 33% SPY and 25% TLT.

The market is giving you respite, but smart money is buying up yield, which is why REITs and utilities are doing so well.

I talked about this earlier this morning. The Bank of Japan’s actions are not in our best interest. They are manipulating their currency, in an effort to steal market share. Ultimately, we lose when the yen drops v the dollar.

Cramer hones in on this and ponders as to why traders are viewing this in a positive light.

Fourth quarter GDP came in at 0.7%, missing the estimate of 0.8%. Pray tell me, if we’re growing at 0.7% during the holiday season, a time when Americans are programmed to spend all of their savings, AND MORE, what do you think the GDP will do during Q1, 2 and 3 during 2016–post Federal Reserve induced cataclysm?

SPY futures are up 8, off their highs. TLT is now higher by 1.1%.

The result of the Bank of Japan’s blatant currency manipulation is a stronger dollar and flight to treasuries, both deflationary for citizens of this great steak’d nation.

Look for the dollar to continue to make gains v the yen, providing the robot lovers with the ammunition they need to unfairly compete with our exporters.

Interested in higher stocks? Fugetiboutit. You’re not getting shit, with TLT pressing new highs. As a matter of fact, you should be fading this rally–as it is built upon the empty skulls of brainless day traders.

Sure, anything could happen–I suppose. Then again, maybe it doesn’t. The point is, stocks can’t rally when U.S. treasuries are removing liquidity from the marketplace. The negative rate craze, which seems to be all the rage in Europe and Japan now, is lunacy and highly deflationary and detrimental to your financial well being.

Central governments love it, since they’re able to build bridges to nowhere with your money–that you PAY THEM FOR TO BORROW.

This is, by far, the greatest robbery and tax ever levied against the people on planet earth. Nevertheless, having 25% of my assets in TLT, I am happy for it.

Make no mistake, this is all about the yen, trying to recapture market share from China by devaluing their currency. It seems everyone is trying to devalue their currency at once, with exception to the United States, because the pie isn’t big enough for everyone. The world is a giant gluttonous pig, fat off of decades of excess spending, trying to stay afloat by stabbing each other in the back through currency wars.

Chinese-Japnese cross

The truth is, this is about the debt and the inability for governments to cope with it. This game of smoke and mirrors will continue, for as long as they can keep it going. But the deflationary vortex is real. Governments are stymied, unable to properly stimulate their economies because they are built upon a weak fabric.

The NIKKEI 225 has been on a rollercoaster session tonight–but it looks like it will end comfortably in the green.

European and U.S. markets should surge at the open, anywhere from 1-2%. It’s a risk on day, a well deserved respite after enduring a hellish three weeks of drawdowns.