Breadth is acceptable at 81%. There is broad participation in this rally. It has the feeling of pent up frustration being released out into the world. This is an angry move higher, designed to inflict damage to shorts.
Taking a look at the NASDAQ, clearly today’s move doesn’t even put a dent in the magnitude of the decline we’ve just had.
If this is a bear market, rallies are a natural occurence–but they’re always short lived. We moved from 5,100 to 4,400, a total loss of 700 NASDAQS. I can see this rally getting us back up to 4,750–before heading back south again.
Remember, we always retest, not matter what. That 4,400 mark will be tested again, trust in that.
In the interim, we have a stock and bond rally going at the same time. Talk about twighlight zone. I’ll take it, since I am 33% SPY and 25% TLT.
The market is giving you respite, but smart money is buying up yield, which is why REITs and utilities are doing so well.
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Id think we make a move higher from here until to feb 10. On the thought that with blah GDP growth and Japan going negative the Fed will pause with their lunacy and signal nothing for March.
Technical analysis shows us forming a bear flag though.
@ Hedge..Chinese New Year is Feb 8 and not the 10th. And of course NOTHING until March cuz that is when all the Central Bankers Meet again.
Any idea how long the Chinese markets are closed for the new year?
nm – Feb 8th to the 12th
The next two weeks should be good
So many travel home during this time period that all production stops about a week before and week after the actual market closed time span of Feb 8-12
Global capital inflows…currently blowing into bonds. When will you discuss the bond bubble?
tia
OK Fly, You KNOW I have been HIDING under my BEAR covers all of this week cuz I KNEW that BoJ was going to do something horrible to mess up my nice sweet Market Collapse/Shanghi Commodity Bubble Bursting. US Bears are now SO USED to the Pain Central Bankers do on us. BUT, here is my take. YES BoJ is giving out FREE MONEY LOANS TO ALL, and Yes MANY will borrow and Buy stuff with it. YET, the theme of speculating in Commodities have been Widow Makers since the SPX was at 1755ish (Which I think was our top)..so many of those Speculators aren’t eager at all to buy Commodites at Global HISTORICAL Gluts. ALSO Money will go into Carry Trades Big Time, so we Borrow the Yen and buy….ah USD is the only thing that really is looking good, yes Money is made in the trade, but not good for exporters or Companies that profit from USD spreads at all. So Last, all the BoJ cheap loans must find their homes in BONDS…this funds the Junky Companies that have been funding buy backs, and as Jeff Macke has been great at pointing out (and who you MUST keep after Jan 31), that is one horrible mess that will collapse on it’s self too….so maybe this is a UGLY Bear Rally, that will fade fast when investors don’t use the same playbook of 2009 and buy Commodities, Junk Bonds and Euros????? Boy I hope so.
Trading Nymph – y do u type so much.
Anyone – Where & when will IBB bounce too?
ask about the ‘nymph’ resistance at 1888
its cathartic
Showtime…very true. Blah Blah resistance actually 1880 but all bets are off when Central Banks are around.