Why I Begrudgingly Bought SPY This Morning, In Spite of My Dire Outlook

The machines made me do it.

86% win rate over 5 days.

There wasn’t a single person on this planet who was more bearish than I, heading into today’s trade. I dreamt of black clouds and ominous share price deductions, awakening with a smile. There weren’t any stocks that I liked, aside from those of the hamburger varietal. I wanted America to be great again, Belgium to have the backbones of grandmas, and my President avoiding, at all costs, taking pictures in front of Che Guevara murals with a Cuban dictator, then shuttling off to do the tango, quite badly might I add, in Argentina.

Instead, the effervescent and everlasting algorithmic dynasty that is Exodus told me something that I didn’t know, ever so quietly. Stocks weren’t ripe to head lower just yet and the decline would be met with people, foaming from the mouth with rage, elbowing one another in the faces to buy stocks.

Hence, as of this morning, I suspended my overarching bearishness for stocks, in favor for pragmatism, and I purchased a lot of SPY, at $202.15.

Have a look. I took a picture.

The numbers do not lie. Markets are higher now. Join us now in Exodus. We’re running free trials through Easter.

There’s a clown at the Reuters news desk with an ax to grind, a Hillary photograph to shine, and a distinct lack of understanding how people with extreme wealth manage their finances. It’s probably because this ‘journalist’ do-gooder multi-culturalist, who feels it’s his duty to defeat Trump, for the sake of indigenous people everywhere. Feeling anything at all was his first mistake. His second mistake was pissing me off with this story.

Both Reuters and Yahoo Finance are running headlines, depicting Trump as a bad businessman, because, get this, HIS INVESTMENTS IN CERTAIN HEDGE FUNDS LOST MONEY THIS YEAR AND LAST. That’s right, you’re now considered to be a bad businessman when you have 1% of your net worth with hedge fund managers who lost you money. So if you send your broker money and the market goes down, and you lose money as a result, you’re the bad businessman, not the broker?

The fuck sort of world am I living in.

Here is the drivel, in its entirety. First, entreat yourselves to see at how they framed the headlines.

And Yahoo Finance.

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is built on his business acumen. But some of the Wall Street funds that he has invested in have proven less successful, underperforming industry benchmarks in the last 15 months, according to a Reuters examination.

Eighteen out of 21 hedge funds and mutual funds in Trump’s portfolio lost money in 2015, and 17 of them are down so far this year, according to public disclosures and private performance data seen by Reuters.

The funds managed by Paulson & Co, BlackRock Inc, Baron Capital and others lost an average of 8.5 percent last year, according to Reuters calculations, whereas stock market and hedge fund industry benchmarks broke even or came close to it. Trump’s funds are down another 2.9 percent so far this year, underperforming many benchmarks again.

The performances in part reflect broader weaknesses in the investing climate. The last 15 months have been difficult for many portfolio managers amid volatile stock markets, tumbling oil and commodity prices, and an economic slowdown in China.

Trump defended his holdings in an interview with Reuters, saying he invested in the funds three or four years ago and they have done well over time.

“I put some money with people that are friends,” the New York businessman said by phone on Monday, without naming names.

“I have no idea if they are up or down. I just know that they have been very good over a period of time,” added Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination for the November presidential election.

Representatives for Baron, BlackRock and Paulson declined to comment.

To be sure, some of Trump’s funds have performed well this year. For instance, Gabelli Funds’ GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income fund, a closed-end vehicle, has gained 16.27 percent through March 22, beating a benchmark return of 15.89 percent for natural resource funds, according to net asset value data from Morningstar.

Another fund that Trump has invested in, the Invesco European Growth Fund, gained 4.82 percent last year versus a benchmark loss of 5.66 percent, according to Morningstar.

Gabelli and Invesco declined to comment. Both funds are listed as small holdings within Trump’s broader brokerage accounts.

SOME FUNDS OUTPERFORMED

The 21 funds examined by Reuters were among 23 funds that Trump disclosed last year in a July 15 filing with the Federal Election Commission. The performance of two of the funds could not be discerned.

The Reuters review included performance data publicly disclosed by 14 mutual funds, as well as performance data on seven hedge funds seen in confidential fund reports or shared by people familiar with those firms.

Trump told Reuters the funds are a tiny part of his investment portfolio.

“I do very little hedge funds business. I for the most part don’t believe in it,” he said.

The 23 funds were worth as much as $120.75 million, according to the FEC filing, a fraction of Trump’s self-proclaimed net worth of more than $10 billion.

While Trump selected the funds, their managers are responsible for choosing securities to invest in and the funds’ subsequent performance.

Some investing experts who looked at Trump’s portfolio and Reuters’ compilation of their performance were not impressed, saying he could have earned better returns by investing in other hedge funds.

For instance, Reuters previously reported that Millennium Management’s main Millennium International fund gained 12.65 percent in 2015, while Citadel gained 14.3 percent in its main multi-strategy hedge funds.

“By the looks of it, Mr. Trump’s investing prowess is very pedestrian,” said Brian Shapiro, chief executive of Simplify LLC, which tracks and analyses alternative investments like hedge funds.

“For someone who prides himself on being surrounded by the best talent,” added Brad Alford, an investment advisor and CEO of Alpha Capital Management, “I’m surprised to see so few winners.”

To be sure, some of Trump’s funds that fell in 2015 have fared better in previous years. For instance, BlackRock’s Obsidian fund has averaged annual returns of 3.39 percent over the last five years, according to a person familiar with the performance.

Obsidian fell 6.17 percent in 2016 through March 11, while other comparable funds rose 0.69 percent, according to a private client report by HSBC’s Alternative Investment Group seen by Reuters. BlackRock declined to comment.

“You can’t measure it in a short time. I’m way up with BlackRock. I’m way up with Obsidian,” Trump told Reuters, without elaborating further.

Trump disclosed a $27.6 million stake in Obsidian in May 2015, his largest fund holding. It is unclear when Trump first invested in Obsidian, which bets on corporate and government bonds, along with interest rates and other securities.

Obsidian was burned by a slide in oil and other commodities, according to a February BlackRock client note seen by Reuters.

PAULSON LOSSES

Trump’s stable of funds include two Angelo, Gordon & Co hedge funds, three Paulson & Co hedge funds, and 11 Baron Capital mutual funds. The mutual funds are open to virtually anyone, but hedge funds are only accessible to those that meet minimum wealth requirements, which typically include a net worth of more than $1 million.

A representative for Angelo, Gordon & Co did not respond to a request for comment.

Baron’s billionaire founder, Ron Baron, is known for long-term bets on companies and an optimistic world view.

Trump uses 11 Baron vehicles with different investment strategies, including small-cap stocks, real estate and emerging markets. Nine of the funds lost money in 2015, with one energy and resources vehicle falling nearly 32 percent, according to data compiled by Morningstar. Nine are down this year through March 22 with single-digit losses.

Baron’s long-term track record is better. The firm’s best-known Baron Growth Fund has gained an average of about 8.6 percent annually over the last five years.

Paulson’s funds have produced a mixed performance in recent years. Led by New York billionaire John Paulson, the firm became famous for its prescient bet on the collapse of the subprime mortgage market leading up to the financial crisis.

But in 2015, the three Paulson funds used by Trump all fell, according to data provided by an investor to Reuters. One of the funds, the Paulson Advantage Plus fund, had declined an average of about 22 percent every year over the last five years, according to a confidential fund report seen by Reuters.

Trump’s filing to the FEC lists myriad business ventures, including holdings in hotels and golf properties, as well as individual stocks such as Apple Inc, Goldman Sachs and Altria Group. (Click here for filing: here)

Trump told Reuters his stock picks have done well recently.

“I bought them low and I sold them high,” he said, referring to a series of sales in January 2014 that netted more than $27 million.

“It was very good timing,” he added. “I hit the market exactly perfectly.”

Look how long this article is. This little trollop spent a long time writing this evergreen piece of meaningless offal. Shame on Reuters.

This is the author. He looks like a very nice boy.

Our profits will blot out the sun.

A little addendum to my recent bearish leanings: I bought SPY today, a 25% position, based on the Exodus oversold readings flagged yesterday. My current portfolio consists of 50% short XLE, 25% long TLT, 25% long SPY.

Normally I would not share this invaluable information with the Third Estate. However, in the spirit of Good Friday and Easter, Le Fly is bestowing great gifts upon you, in a very inverse Judas sort of way. With these indelible treasures, you might take the family over to the local watering hole, or maybe a movie showing or two. More fortunate persons investing 2,3 even four figure accounts, might be able to afford a trip to Disney World, where you might endeavor to ride on roller’d coasters and decapitate yourself by standing up in a low clearing overpass.

(NOTE: I am not to be held responsible for your decapitation, if in fact I funded your family trip to Disney World)

COME ONE, COME ALL. Get your free trials and immerse yourselves in the grandeur of Exodus.

The psychotics at the Fed are at it again. I want you to forget all of the horseshit you’ve read regarding why the Fed is going to hike and remember the real reason why they’re desperately making the case to raise them.

The very first argument was they wanted to raise now so they could lower them later. Using that logic, the Fed must fear we’re nearing the top of the economic cycle and want to raise rates as fast as they can, in order to lower them later and save the world from insurmountable devastation.

This argument is complete horseshit. Nevertheless, this is their plan.

Bullard is out this morning, menacing markets in incorrigible tones, pressing and clamoring and pressing again for higher rates.

“The relatively minor downgrades contained in the March SEP suggest that the next rate increase may not be far off provided that the economy evolves as expected,” Bullard said in a speech in New York on Thursday, referring to Fed officials’ quarterly forecasts, known as the Summary of Economic Projections.

Bullard in his speech said the outlook for U.S. and global growth was “downgraded somewhat” from December, while “the outlook for the U.S. labor market was upgraded somewhat” in the forecasts. Other variables were left about the same, he said. Bullard is a Fed policy voter this year.

“Not following through on a proposed action can damage a policy maker’s credibility,” in the absence of a change in data or the outlook, Bullard said.

Fucked.

It’s amazing to me that so many biotech companies are, essentially, VC styled Ponzi schemes, designed to ingratiate nerd scientists with budgets to pretend to be mad scientists.

This piece of shit company has failed to do anything meaningful. Ergo, the stock is cascading lower.

Portola Pharmaceuticals Inc said late-stage data showed its oral anticoagulant was not superior to an injectable standard therapy in preventing blood clots in acutely ill patients.

There was no statistical difference in major bleeding between the patients who were treated with Portola’s drug, betrixaban, and those given the injectable, enoxaparin, in the study, the company said.

Okay, so I’m exaggerating a little. One could be cautiously pessimistic, no?

European markets are swimming lower. The blood is flowing and Count Dracula has transformed into a bat, en route for Paris.

Crude oil isn’t so cool anymore.

Lastly, America is Marco Rubioing lower, denigrating itself for all the world to see.

Note: there are a few seats left on the ark, next to this wonderful family of mongoose and herd of llama.

Oust its CEO first. In spite of the non-negotiable facts that Starboard is making demands of a King while owning a peasants 0.75% position in YHOO, their plan has extreme merits.

Marissa Mayer is the worst CEO since Jack Dorsey. She basically reduced Yahoo to the fucking ashtray of the internet, buying up web-popsicle refugee companies and driving them further into the ground until all value had been lost. Hell, the entire worth of Yahoo is NEGATIVE after taking into account their gigantic step in shit that is the BABA stake. What is that thing worth now, 30,40, 60 billion dollars?

If we asked D. Trump to assess the situation at Yahoo, he’d say ‘they’re all losers who don’t know how to win. They don’t know how to win and it’s really a sad, sad thing. Someone should make Yahoo great again. Anyone could do a better job than Marissa Mayer. Even my son Barron, whose still a baby, could do better for the Yahoo shareholders.”

Yahoo could be a great company. They have fantastic assets that are being squandered. Needless to say, Starboard agrees and one day before good Friday, they’re taking the fucking knives out and firing catapult missiles into Mayer’s pretty little castle.

Activist hedge fund Starboard Value LP, which is leading an investor revolt against Yahoo Inc’s management team, is seeking to remove the entire board of the struggling Internet company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The activist investor, which owns about 0.75 percent of Yahoo, plans to announce Thursday morning that it will nominate nine directors to Yahoo’s board, the Journal said, citing a Starboard letter.
“The board and management have continually failed to live up to their own promises and shouldn’t be trusted with the decision on whether Yahoo should remain an independent company,” the paper reported, citing the letter.

Carl Icahn usually asks for 3 board seats. These fuckers want 9, the entire company. I am certain Mayer will accept this letter, urinate on it, then go try on a new dress or something.

This press release by Starboard is designed to make inroads into ousting Marissa. Let’s see where the wind is blowing for her, east or west?

Give recession a chance. That’s all I’m asking from you.

Earnings are in freefall, fucked faces. BEHOLD.

Pre-tax earnings probably fell 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after dropping 5.1 percent in the third, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. That would be the biggest decline since the 31 percent free fall in the closing months of 2008 during the height of the financial crisis.

Profits last quarter probably were unusually depressed by a $20.8 billion penalty payment by BP Plc to settle claims over the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But even after stripping out that one-time charge, earnings likely still fell about 5 percent, by JPMorgan’s reckoning.

According to the eggheads at JP Morgan, an earnings downturn of this magnitude has led to a recession in 90% of the times, inside of 3 years. Moreover, the problems are more systemic than the media would lead you to believe. The weakness isn’t just isolated to the bedraggled energy sectors. As a point in fact, wages have been increasing at the same time productivity has decreasing–compressing margins like batter in a waffle press.

“With wages picking up but productivity growing in slow motion, margins are likely to continue their declines, which have historically signaled an expansion near its end,” JPMorgan economist Jesse Edgerton wrote in a March 21 research note.

Build a wall. Arm the borders. Defend your countries you cowards.

Western nations are on a suicidal path towards oblivion. The liberal policies that afford the benefit of the doubt to people who want to behead their men and enslave their women will lead to more deaths, destruction, and denigrate an otherwise enlightened peaceful way of life.

Turkey arrested one of the ‘attackers’ in 2015, on the border of Syria. They knew he was a fuckhead. They warned the Belgian government of this fact and they, in turn, did nothing. The pole smokers in Brussels said they couldn’t tie him to a terrorist organization, so they let him go.

Really?

Erdogan told a news conference that Bakraoui was detained in the southern Turkish province of Gaziantep near the Syrian border and was later deported to the Netherlands. Turkey also notified Dutch authorities, Erdogan said.

A Dutch government official said Erdogan’s comments were “being carefully looked into,” but that they could not yet say if El Bakraoui had been in the Netherlands.

“One of the attackers in Brussels is an individual we detained in Gaziantep in June 2015 and deported. We reported the deportation to the Belgian Embassy in Ankara on July 14, 2015, but he was later set free,” Erdogan said.

“Belgium ignored our warning that this person is a foreign fighter.”

Turkey insists that they provided the carpet eaters in Brussels with ample evidence to detain Ibrahim El Bakraoui; but they opted to for the multiculturally correct path–which in turn led to 34 dead and 250 injured.